Chamath Palihapitiya: can i ask a question about the nicotine pouches yes does it melt in your mouth or do you have to

SPEAKER_00: spit it out later you can spit it out you can swallow it or you just savor it i mean you throw it in like a you would a dip of tobacco okay but you just let it sit there and then it suffuses your nervous system with life-giving nicotine and it it really does feel like the hand of god is massaging you but does it feel like the high of smoking a cigarette it's simultaneously if you can imagine the zen paradox higher alertness accompanied by deep relaxation so you really are no no it it's a zen experience you're like cat-like in your readiness but you're fully and how long does it last i always have one going sometimes if things are you know if i need it i'll put another one in so i've got 18 milligrams of nicotine but that gives me an unfair advantage you're banging 18 milligrams that's impressive i don't like to because it everybody else kind of recedes into the background and i become this kind of colossus when i do that and i feel guilty about it hubris is inevitable at

SPEAKER_19: that point so i usually keep it to one i mean i could use a new addiction oh yes what's the gateway

SPEAKER_25: drug level uh what would you prescribe it's between caffeine three milligram but you know there's a

SPEAKER_00: transition like all all great addictions like it's not instant you you do vomit at first but then but then your body acclimates it's kind of like heroin in that way you know like exactly or

SPEAKER_27: or zempic you just you gotta power through ayahuasca you heat twice and then you're addicted

SPEAKER_45: and then enlightenment i love tucker all right everybody welcome back to the number one podcast in the world after tucker colson's amazing podcast that's right tucker is back here on the all-in podcast with chamath paliohapitiya your chairman dictator and the czar david sachs not from the white house he's from the suite but he's here back on the program looking great look at the collar

SPEAKER_48: brioni i ordered three or four brionis after last week's show guys i did i'm getting the brony

David Sacks: well i have the all-in expense accounts now what'd you call it brony brioni he'll be paying for

SPEAKER_54: it over 72 months two monthly payments the layaway you as a firm or clarna wait for that hey uh

SPEAKER_45: tucker last time you were here uh you famously famously gosh it's been a year of feedback on your last performance thank you for coming back we got a lot of crazy feedback from the private equity

SPEAKER_58: housewives but i got more feedback they love me yeah but you know what you're in you're in deep you're in deep because i am here in la and the los angeles studio wives group is really really

SPEAKER_59: pissed off at you because they feel that they're the problem they feel they're a much bigger problem than private equity housewife so hollywood studio heads wives versus private equity wives

SPEAKER_62: i know some of them um and they're absolutely a bigger problem but they're fewer of them

SPEAKER_63: god it's kind of hard to get critical mass yeah exactly they're they're a smaller threat they're kind of an elite unit you know they're like delta force god they have less money too you

SPEAKER_64: know they don't get as much in the divorce as these private equity wives got it so they

SPEAKER_45: i mean coming in like a swat team if you want to send them in to deal with a very specific issue great but they're not going to cause as much bedlam globally as the private they cause a lot

SPEAKER_70: of misery though that's one mackenzie bezos exactly oh my god all right listen let's get a plug in

SPEAKER_48: here all in summit fourth year tucker's coming this year i hope uh september 7th to 9th in los angeles the goal have the world's most important conversations yada yada yada blah blah blah apply for a team all in.com slash yada yada or all in.com summit to apply for a ticket freeberg is out this week so tucker is here and my lord what going on in the news let's start with the immigration protests slash riots slash ice actions in los angeles i'm actually here last friday protests broke out after ice raided home depot a fashion wholesaler in total 44 people were arrested by ice 10 times as many 400 and counting from the protests they even ran into uh ice that is ran into a strawberry field in oxenard uh to just randomly pick people up it seems uh at least a half dozen waymos were vandalized and burned 20 plus businesses looted and uh waymo narrowed their area and it's a spike to 30 minute wait times uh so that's a first world problem riders throwing bricks molotov cocktails shooting fireworks at war enforcement completely unacceptable two men were charged with throwing molotov cocktails at officers uh trump deployed the national guard two thousand at first then four thousand apparently and uh apparently there's a battalion of marines here 700 of them karen bass instituted a curfew downtown la 8 pm to 6 a.m and uh prosecutors federal prosecutors that is are trying to identify hundreds of people newsom bass denounced the raids obviously and uh they're blaming trump for escalating the situation trump and members of the white house responded by calling out california's weak leadership and now we have protests popping up everywhere else new york chicago austin dc tucker you grew up in southern california i thank you i did yeah la in la jolla i mean are these riots more or less than a lakers uh championship uh how concerning are they to you who's to blame well as measured by violence

SPEAKER_62: they're less profound than you know what happened in 2020 after george floyd died they're way less

SPEAKER_00: dangerous than say the watts riot um or the rodney king riots in la but they're much more profound i mean it it really does there's certainly a bigger deal than anything can happen in fort sumter for sure which kicked off the bloodiest war in american history the federal government has as a core duty uh the right and responsibility to enforce immigration law and police the borders that's what the government is that's what the federal government is really and so if you can test that it is like a threat to disunion fundamentally i mean i think there's a lot at stake and we reach this point because a series of paradoxically weak federal governments allowed sanctuary cities to continue literally for decades each one its own form of insurrection against the central government and maybe maybe you don't believe that the federal government has a right to pass laws restricting immigration it's not in charge of the integrity of the borders you know that that's a kind of philosophical or constitutional case i guess you could make but most people accept that those are federal duties and once you accept that you can't allow states or municipalities to flout the law any more than you could allow central high school in little rock to keep black students out or whatever i mean certainly federal troops have been called in for much less and i think the longer this continues the greater the threat of disunion the greater the threat of reaching a point where you i don't know you can't drive from new york to la we take a lot for granted in the country and the main thing we take for granted i think is freedom of movement between states but you could easily imagine that ending like soon in the same way that you can't drive from because i've tried from sao paulo to to rio in brazil pretty first world country it's too dangerous to do that you could easily see that happening here so i think once the trump administration commits to putting down the riots to enforcing federal law by force it kind of can't back away from that like i you know and that raises the question who's funding these et cetera et cetera and i think it's a really interesting question we should find out i don't think the only arrest should be on the scene i do think the drug cartels are involved flexing their authority in california they have a lot of control in california as i'm sure you know et cetera et cetera but the bottom line question is does the federal government have a right to enforce federal

SPEAKER_85: immigration law yes and if states are out of compliance with that it doesn't have any option

SPEAKER_48: but to force the issue tramatha when you see this amount of paramilitary military literal military coming in the dragging of you know handymen from home depot as opposed to the strategic way this started which was hey we're going to go after the felons we're going after the gang members the really bad folks and then this time now it seems like hey we're just going to roll up to a farm we're going to roll up to a home depot just grab everybody we'll figure it out later if they're you know papers check out or not are you in favor of the hey all 20 million got to go i'll call that the steve bannon position or are you into in the five percent of alien illegal aliens who are criminals they need to go but maybe a path to citizenship for the other 19 million i think the president was

SPEAKER_92: asked a version of that question today jason and i think what he said is there are people that have

SPEAKER_97: worked for example on farms for 20 to 25 years or they work in the leisure industry and he said we have to take a common sense approach to those people because if you do take those people then it's creating a vacuum where these jobs could get filled by folks that are essentially criminals or other

SPEAKER_95: things so i believe that that's a reasonable starting point what i would say is where do we go

SPEAKER_97: there are seven and a half legal not illegal legal immigrants in the united states waiting for their

SPEAKER_98: adjustment of status those are doctors those are lawyers those are scientists those are family members

SPEAKER_97: of existing american citizens there's an entire body of people that i think we have to recognize that have been waiting in line and their first act in america was a legal action to come in and contribute and every time we start this conversation we go to the plight of people whose fundamental first action was an

Chamath Palihapitiya: illegal action without understanding that there has to be actually a more balanced approach so yes i think the president is right common sense for the folks that have now been here for a very long time but we have to prioritize the people that started by saying we're going to wait in line properly and then there's people in the middle i think that there needs to be a way to give those folks a chance to get their affairs in order but they should be playing by the rules god and i think it's unfair

SPEAKER_88: to reward not playing by the rules okay so some middle ground between the extreme all 20 million gotta go

SPEAKER_92: and the one example that i saw online jason was give folks a stipend and a year yes the stipend's been out there for a while right to get their affairs in order and then to go and said that right kaizen

SPEAKER_97: said that exactly and i think i think kaizen's clip is actually the most the most rational for

SPEAKER_98: the middle chunk but i would really focus on these legal folks and say what are we doing about those folks whose first action was to raise their hand stand in line and say i want to contribute by

SPEAKER_91: the rules that america so reward them and then punish the illegal folks coming in adjudicate

SPEAKER_48: everybody or adjudicate everybody else love it okay sax i'm gonna play two clips for here to level this up and we can kind of look at this in a multi-decade way here's reagan on immigration and then followed

SPEAKER_110: by clinton it is bold men and women yearning for freedom and opportunity who leave their homelands and come to a new country to start their lives over they believe in the american dream and over and over they make it come true for themselves for their children and for others but their greatest contribution is more than economic because they understand in a special way how glorious it is to be an american they renew our pride and gratitude in the united states of america the greatest freest nation in the world the last best hope of men on earth all americans not only in

SPEAKER_115: the states most heavily affected but in every place in this country are rightly disturbed by the large numbers of illegal aliens entering our country that's why our administration has moved aggressively to secure our borders more by hiring a record number of new border guards by deporting twice as many criminal aliens as ever before we are a nation of immigrants but we are also a nation of laws it is wrong and ultimately self-defeating for a nation of immigrants to permit the kind of abuse of our immigration laws we have seen in recent years and we must do more to stop it okay sax my question for you is

SPEAKER_48: on a party basis this seems to have flipped we talked about this before on the program republicans wanted immigration naftra legal right even maybe an open border where workers could go freely back and forth from mexico kind of like the eu and uh clinton wanted to deport folks so that americans get to have more jobs and that wages would go up now it seems to have flipped obviously you're inside the administration disclaimer disclaimer whatever you however you want to disclaim this what's in the best interest of all americans going forward because we have an interesting wrinkle here which i'm sure you've been thinking about as the ai czar which is jobs are going away in a lot of key fact key areas where robotics and ai are coming in so you have to contend with what the american people want and ai and job destruction or displacement that can be caused by it so so what are your thoughts generally and obviously you work in the administration so i want to give you that chance to explain

SPEAKER_119: personal versus administration position well my reaction is that you're doing everything possible

David Sacks: to avoid the fact that la is on fire right now and law enforcement is being assaulted by rioters who

SPEAKER_122: look like an invading army they're riding under a foreign flag yeah you're showing clips of reagan and clinton what the hell does this have to do with the fact that there are riots in la right now

SPEAKER_124: oh well i was trying this is the issue at hand oh i was trying to level up the conversation to talk

SPEAKER_126: about the big picture of immigration but if we want to change the conversation i think i'm trying to

SPEAKER_124: expand hold on hold on if you're going to accuse me personally of like having a scale here i'm happy

SPEAKER_48: to discuss law enforcement january 6th or this one i believe you should not beat up cops i come from a family of cops you know that we've been friends for over 20 years my family is cop my family is

SPEAKER_128: firefighter we don't approve of throwing moral tough cocktails at cops period full stop i am insulted if

SPEAKER_64: you even insinuate that i didn't insinuate that but you said i have not discussed the issue at hand

SPEAKER_122: which is you can feel free to go la is burning right now by the way if you don't want to get deported try not riding under a foreign flag i mean it's just a stupid way to advocate for your position if that's what it is but that's that's the topic of the week right now i don't know why you're trying to up level this and talk about what reagan thought 40 years ago it's just not relevant to what's happening in the news today now you ask what is the quote-unquote american position if there is one i can give you some polling on that so first of all voters approve of the ice raids in los angeles by 55 to 37 that's plus 18 voters support the administration's effort to deport illegal immigrants by 58 37 that's plus 21 they approve of trump deploying the national guard by 20 points 59 39 only 36 say the administration's gone too far while 55 say it's about right or too little so plus 19 and even the liberal uh quinnipiac poll found that democrats approved numbers are at a new all-time low of minus 49 whereas trump is now up to plus six in morning consult and plus eight in rasmussen so i think the american people approve of what the administration is doing here and just to fact check one thing you said in the introduction you mentioned this fashion wholesaler that along with home depot you made it sound like these raids were just happening willy-nilly like there's some big roundup where they were just busting into places and seeing who's illegal checking people's papers that's not what happened this fashion wholesaler is a money laundering operation for the mexican cartels this is according to tom homan and many employees there are involved in very serious crimes drug gang and violence murder child rape and there were warrants for their arrest so the way that this whole thing started is ice was serving criminal warrants that state and local authorities have no right to resist that's how this started it wasn't random roundups

SPEAKER_48: okay okay i was just there's reporting that stephen miller specifically said just he was disappointed with the number of people being round up and deported and he said just go to a farm just go

David Sacks: to home depot so that's not that's the reporting okay well i've not been able to confirm that reporting

SPEAKER_122: i don't i personally don't believe it i think that what tom homan said is that they were serving criminal warrants that's how this started okay now i think that part of the reason why the democrats are so unpopular here is they're basically perceived as excusing the lawlessness by saying that it's only happening because the trump administration's daring to enforce the law and so once again they're siding with looters arsonists and violent criminals just like in 2020 and who's who's siding this is

SPEAKER_124: democrats okay because the democrats they said no violence so that was many times gavin newson said no violence karen bass said no violence they've been tweeting they also okay great they also

SPEAKER_122: are saying that this is all trump's fault that trump started this bastard newsom said that the national guard wasn't needed because lapd had everything under control but lapd was at first told to stay out of the protests and when the violence erupted and that forced him to step in they were according to their own chief of police jim mcdonald quickly overwhelmed so this is mcdonald he said quote we are overwhelmed tonight we had individuals out there shooting commercial grade fireworks at our officers that can kill you they'll take backpacks filled with cinder blocks and hammers break the blocks and pass the piece around to throw at officers and cars even at other people so according to their own chief of police they needed the help from the national guard so that's the real issue here is that bass and newsom had this policy of doing nothing and then engaging in denialism pretending

SPEAKER_142: like there wasn't a problem and then when the problem got too big to ignore they pretend like

SPEAKER_45: it's trump's fault for causing it tucker what's your thoughts on should the trump administration have had such a show of force if the reports are true that they're randomly going you know to a home

SPEAKER_48: depot if that is true is that the right approach right now or is it you know a little too provocative and they should do this more strategically in your personal opinion uh well considering that we have

SPEAKER_00: american troops in over a hundred bases around the world in countries most americans can't identify it's a little weird to be shocked when on that rare occasion they're used to keep the second biggest city in the country from burning down it seems like the point of having a military is to keep foreigners from burning your cities and these are foreigners as david said they're foreign nationals committing crimes beneath a foreign flag so that if there was ever a time to use the u.s military it's then and as noted earlier you can't allow the states to be flagrantly out of compliance with federal immigration law and i have to say the core question for me as an american is a really a fairness question so the idea that you know people are breaking the law but it's cool because they're doing essential services like well you know i pay a lot in taxes maybe i pay eighty percent and that feels like enough to me and hey man do you really have a right to collect the last twenty percent i mean

SPEAKER_85: isn't eighty percent enough like back off i don't have the right to say that as an american citizen to an irs agent i wind up in jail if i do that or if i break any law by the rule of law critically important

SPEAKER_00: well but no but not only that it's a double standard and and i live in a place where a lot of the population subsists on the food banks and where there are very few jobs and it really is one of those places that nafta destroyed whose economy nafta destroyed and to see in the place where i live immigrants get preference on housing on jobs which is actually true and i know that liberals watching like that's not really true it is true actually and i and i wonder because the real number is not 20 million it's closer to 50 million i think that's true uh illegals in the united states clearly they can't all be deported by ice but i also think if you have a system that hands out meaningful grants in effect cell phones travel vouchers housing vouchers free education food stamps to people who are here legally or who are here legally as refugees you are going to draw the world's poor and i think it's fair to ask do we want that how do we benefit from that and are we giving more to foreigners than we're giving to our own citizens and the answer is yes and like so how dare you at

SPEAKER_80: a certain point like you get a revolution if you keep doing that that's too much it's too offensive got

SPEAKER_43: it so i think we all agree no violence on cops shut the southern border and giving a crazy amount

SPEAKER_122: you like me to ask questions don't you do you think the national guard should be brought in

SPEAKER_111: yes or no if the local police can't handle what's going on of course they should be brought in sure

SPEAKER_159: i believe that i believe that are questioning that decision you asked me the question i believe they

SPEAKER_45: should have been brought in for january 6 for blm or for the la riots if the local police can't contain them 100 i believe the national guard should have been brought in for january 6 when they were beating cops i believe they should be brought in now if cops are being beaten and i believe they should have

SPEAKER_48: been brought in during blm when cops were being beaten i am pro-cop i come from a family of cops

SPEAKER_64: so you can ask me the questions seven different ways so newsom and bass were out of line when they

SPEAKER_48: say that national guard should not have been brought in i think well number one i think they could call the national guard if they can't control it i'm not but that's their criticism of trump is that he

SPEAKER_122: called in the national guard you agree that that was necessary it's obviously necessary just look at the tv the city's still on fire the cops are completely overwhelmed by the way i find it

SPEAKER_166: comical that well you know let me finish this one point then you can speak yeah i find it comical

SPEAKER_122: that for permission the massachusetts governor called up the national guard when de santa sent remember when he sent the 50 migrants over to martha's vineyard yes and they all freaked out and they literally called the national guard in because 50 migrants all of a sudden have been flown into

SPEAKER_168: martha's vineyard okay but was that you can have you can have thousands or because there was riots

SPEAKER_122: well that was when desantis was making a point about okay but that was to process them they

SPEAKER_124: they weren't riding on martha's vineyard these were just nonetheless the national guard was brought

SPEAKER_122: in and you know you can have thousands of people though rioting in la but somehow the national guard

SPEAKER_124: shouldn't be brought in we're in agreement so you can try to force me to disagree with you but i'm in agreement anytime the cops are overwhelmed i think the national guard should be brought in

SPEAKER_48: period full stop so we're in agreement on that what i'm trying to get to is tucker if you believe there's 50 million people let's say the number's 30 million we split the difference between the two 35 million whatever it is my question for you how many should be deported by ice at 20 000 a person which is the estimate that you know both sides seem to agree is what it's going to cost should we deport a million should we deport 10 million and then how tucker calls and would you deport them

SPEAKER_00: well i think the goal has to be full compliance with the law for everybody within our borders citizen or foreign born illegal refugee green card holder if you're in the united states you obey our laws and if you don't we make a good faith effort to enforce them despite how powerful the political

SPEAKER_178: blocks so you're all 50 million so so well of course by definition or else why wouldn't i apply that same standard to my taxes right so so but how do you do it yeah let's get into that right so

SPEAKER_00: well that's a hostage situation it's like we've got 50 million here already we've lied about the number for 30 years now wow it's 50 million or 35 million we need them everyone gets a path to citizenship you know that's a kind of crime actually but the first step and the phrase has been devalued but self-deportation if you have a system where people come to the united states to make their own way and take advantage of the freedoms offered in the economy uh they're allowed to participate in the economy then i think you could have a system where people really admire immigrants in the way that they did when i was growing up and that i i still do in some ways i mean so my favorite people are immigrants and they all tell the same story came here with nothing built this great life but you make everybody cynical and you sort of destroy the idea of the virtue of immigration when you hand people stuff and give them preference when they arrive and we don't

SPEAKER_153: talk enough about what that actually looks like if we send a lot more than 20 grand a person right now

SPEAKER_184: in subsidies to people who aren't even allowed to be here they also pay into social security too

SPEAKER_59: right to the tune of 100 million years oh okay right no no that's just what was reported by our

SPEAKER_188: government if we want to get conspiracy corner i think those are fake i think those are fake

SPEAKER_00: numbers look does anybody really believe that 50 million illegals is a net benefit to the u.s economy

SPEAKER_190: are you serious have you been to our cities no of course not it's not uh i actually think probably

SPEAKER_124: a large number of them are net benefit because they're working in jobs that americans don't want to take and we're at four percent unemployment so who's going to take all those jobs if they get

SPEAKER_153: deported ducker aren't but weren't you just saying that we're on the cusp of a labor revolution where some 20 of american jobs are going away in two years could be yeah so that's the that's the

SPEAKER_124: nuance in this discussion is five years ago we might be dealing not just it's like a brick wall

SPEAKER_153: we're about to hit at high speed and i don't understand having accustomed an entire generation of tens of millions of immigrants to government handouts what the social fabric is going to look

SPEAKER_97: like when that stops yeah can i say something because yeah please get in here jamal tucker's saying something really important which i agree with what should immigration be in a highly developed nation like the united states and my perspective is you have to come and say well what is the goal i think the goal should be to maintain supremacy the united states is the most vibrant economy in the world it's the most important military power in the world it's the most technically advanced entity in the world if we do not focus on maintaining our supremacy i don't think any american wants to go through the process of going from first to not first and if you look back in history at all of the other countries that have had to go through that

Chamath Palihapitiya: transition that is where revolutions and chaos happen so we should avoid that so where does immigration play a role it needs to play a role first and foremost in technical military and economic supremacy the problem as tucker says is when you have five or six times the number of illegal immigrants as legal immigrants all of a sudden the idea of using immigration as a cream skimming technique to reinforce the most capable people in the world to come here goes away because you can't have that conversation we have people languishing for 10 15 20 years on visas okay their kids age out they all go back to india and other places why because we can't focus on that conversation jason because we're focused on how do we give amnesty to folks whose initial action was breaking the law absolutely correct and this is where the whole immigration conversation devolves we are missing the bigger picture and you need to deal one second you need to deal with the illegal immigration thing in an extremely foundational way where you can defend the decision you started illegally

SPEAKER_59: and you have to now go and conform to the law which is where i'm trying to steer this discussion

SPEAKER_48: number one we all agree on closing the border it seems like there's a breaking consensus here tucker wants to eventually deport everybody you want to do something in the middle like trump sacks i'm not sure what your personal position is or if you want to give it do you feel we should try to have a path to deport as many of these 20 30 million as possible or do you believe we should have a path towards uh citizenship for them what's your personal belief or do you want to not well i remember when

SPEAKER_64: you asked that question to now vice president jd vance at all in summit and he said that you basically address that problem the same way that you eat a sandwich which is one bite at a time

David Sacks: so that makes sense to me if there's 20 million illegals you start with the top million who are violent criminals and gang members and you deport those and that is what ice was doing they were serving criminal warrants and then after you successfully do that then you see where you're at and you can address the next bite of the sandwich that makes sense to me now look i i think that we're not really addressing a really core part of the issue here which is for a couple of decades now conservatives were demonized and tucker in particular i think you were demonized for warning about the policies that

SPEAKER_122: have created the mess that everyone can see on tv right now and that mess is we have a large unassimilated population of military age males who are basically rioting right now under a foreign flag as if they were foreign invaders we basically have allowed a separatist movement in the united states that's what it looks like to me and i remember when tucker was warning about the the policies that might create this on his show for years you know virtually alone probably alone on fox news you know you were called a racist this was great replacement theory blah blah blah how can everyone not look at what's happening on tv right now and say tucker was right you know that was really dumb and look i say this as someone from a family i'm one of the people that ronald reagan was talking about you know my family and i came over here we're immigrants but we came over here to assimilate you know we

SPEAKER_198: believe in the melting pot that's all good you might get canceled for bringing the melting pot

SPEAKER_122: that's not the melting pot's good i mean i think that was the classic american model melting pot is

SPEAKER_202: totally good you speak the language i'm just saying you can't cancel culture that's what you're

Chamath Palihapitiya: supposed to do like why why would anybody i came here because i wanted to be american and everything that american meant if i was bigger i would have played football you know like there's all these things that i would have done to assimilate more and more i believe in the culture of the united

SPEAKER_122: states that's why people should come right so we came here we assimilated you know high skill immigrants didn't have a lot but had good education and willing to assimilate that's very different than what you're seeing on tv right now and again if the people on tv just wanted to protest immigration policy in the way that you're talking about i mean you're describing it in this like very nice genteel way they would be peacefully protesting under an american flag saying we want to be here

SPEAKER_207: we're willing to contribute i think the issue that's not what's happening

SPEAKER_122: you can see that right i mean oh they look like foreign invaders i would say by the way this is like the dumbest pr that you know if this debate is really about immigration this is like the dumbest way for them to present their side of the argument yeah because who wants to keep in this country a large unassimilated population that is proud to march not just march but actually protest and riot and burn and assault under the flag of another nation i would say dollars to know that's an

SPEAKER_45: intolerable situation majority of the people who are doing the looting and rioting are not actually immigrants because they have the ability to be deported the people who are doing that are the bad

SPEAKER_48: actors that we saw during blm the bad actors that we saw you know in la when the lakers win i've lived here for a decade and i am here right now i can tell you it's contained and those 80 90 of those people are not the immigrants immigrants are hiding right now for fear of being deported but let's sort of talk about do the path well where do you where do you guys want to go with it here i mean uh i can give you my opinion if you want to talk about it like i don't know i mean i want to

SPEAKER_18: speak for you but i mean i i i do think that like tucker should feel vindicated on this issue for

SPEAKER_00: speaking about it you feel vindicated i mean i never doubted it i grew up i was born in california in 1969 and i my family got there in 1850 i have some sense of what the state was like um certainly through my childhood and it was an idea it was idyllic and it's it's it's not you know the rich areas are great bel air is great la joia is still great i think i mean there are great mount shasta is great lots of great places in california um but fundamentally the state is a slum it's a latin american country and immigration did that and i say that as someone who is pretty pro-immigrant actually my best friend's an immigrant i mean i i've always admired liked immigrants um i'm hardly anti-immigrant or anti-immigration but the way we did it destroyed the state immigration is what made california into a slum and there's kind of no way around that and so that's not an argument against all immigration i i'm not making that argument i don't feel that way but uh it's an argument against what we did in california and rather than learn from that we're doing it in every other state and i don't know why and i think you know if the other side had a reasonable argument they would proffer it but instead they call you names and try to turn you into some kind of thought criminal or whatever i don't care obviously um but it's a it's a sort of measure of how um little they have to say in response they're not actually trying to make the country better that's kind of the main thing i have always thought immigrants are great because they didn't make the country better right i mean i think that's demonstrable but the people pushing our current policies don't have that as a goal this is a kind of punishment for something and a lot of it's ethnic actually it's a it's a kind of attack on the people who were born here i don't know where that hostility comes from you can feel it though and i think it's foolish to deny it that is a motive they're trying to hurt the people who live here and i again i live in a place currently where i see that happening um and it drives me totally bonkers and the last thing i'll say is if you think the way we once did immigration was good and a lot of immigrants are awesome people and i do think that this is discrediting all immigration 100 and it's turning people into pretty radical immigration a restrictionist or like look i don't want any more immigrants yeah you know that's inevitable um but

Chamath Palihapitiya: it's sad to see it by the way what you're saying is is the most true for immigrants legal immigrants look at illegal immigration even more negatively than native-born americans which makes sense right i

SPEAKER_48: mean they waited in line and other people didn't you would be really upset if somebody cut the line jason what do you think obviously there's a lot of emotion around this issue i think numbers help and i always look to see what is the consensus amongst the group here and amongst you know americans everybody wants the border closed trump won on that so okay we all agree the border should be closed i think 80 90 consensus in that 80 90 americans think we should deport violent criminals okay we got consensus there so then what's left is what do we do with high-skilled recruiting i like to use the

SPEAKER_45: word recruiting and we had that discussion with president trump here he promised to put a green card on every every degree i agree with him on that i think we should be recruiting at least a million or two million amazing people per year one to two million amazing people we should match that to what the needs of the country are if we need energy if we need doctors we should match that where we probably

SPEAKER_48: disagree is i think the democrats and the republicans share equally in this issue that was created that tucker pointed out yes there are 40 30 50 who knows what the exact number is that's part of the problem here's a chart we made this just shows you under each of the last you know uh 50 almost 50 years of presidents how many people net uh immigrated to the country and as you can see you know it's been pretty consistent you know around three million per and uh clinton and bush had a ton of immigration both uh bushes were paid for a lot of their donations came from corporates who wanted free migration america

SPEAKER_230: created this hold on let me finish my thought there's an outlier here jason though oh well yeah

SPEAKER_59: biden is the huge outlier we all agree on that biden let it go yolo and i understand people have a lot

SPEAKER_48: of resentment for that and rightfully so and if you bring in 10 million people you're going to let it get a lot of bad guys but you put this all together my belief is that this is a country of immigrants and that this country does great when hard-working immigrants assimilate i think we should take this

SPEAKER_45: raw firepower of these incredible immigrants who have been here for decades if you've been here for 10 or 20 decades pay a fine pay some extra taxes and we give these people a path to citizenship and

SPEAKER_97: we recruit the top one do you do two million people that's my belief you do that before or after the

SPEAKER_91: people that have been waiting in line get a fair shake i think i would start before or after i think you have to do it before because we created this and i i know that that's not something that people

SPEAKER_48: want to take ownership of but america created the situation bush created it ray created clinton

SPEAKER_45: america yes the country that we live in our government allowed millions of people here and the republicans did this specifically in order to get cheap labor okay let me let me ask you

SPEAKER_235: are responsible for what we did with these people let's just say that you're an international

SPEAKER_97: mathematics olympiad winner you get recruited to come to the united states on a student visa you crush it let's say you go to mit and then you go and do a phd at caltech and then you get

Chamath Palihapitiya: recruited on an opt visa by google and you're just crushing awesome and and you're saying that that

SPEAKER_240: person oh no sorry that's a more subtle question that person we should recruit as i said very clearly recruit the top saying one to two million they're currently waiting in line jason yes so let's just

SPEAKER_91: say i'm saying yes let them in and he has a path to who do you prioritize you have one

SPEAKER_45: you can do both at the same time no no you can't of course you can we could we have one group recruiting a million to two million highly skilled labor highly skilled individuals of the type you're describing while having another group we can do two things at the same time chamath absolutely you can you're you're giving a false question here then we take the person who's been here for 20 years as a dishwasher as a nanny who has been an amazing citizen who has been paying into social security give them a path a compassionate path and we as america and americans should take ownership of the fact that we allowed this and the people who allowed it were republicans and democrats we allowed these people to come in to work in our restaurants and fields which is what trump said today trump is in

SPEAKER_129: agreement with me that's not what he said he said something he said he wants to not have those people

David Sacks: leave it's just amazing to me that on this podcast during the biden years you were echoing this party line that the videos of you know mass migration caravans streaming across the border going through the holes in the wall you said those were videos cherry-picked by fox news you echoed the

SPEAKER_142: party line that there was no problem no all of a sudden oh no no no you're saying it was a

SPEAKER_45: bipartisan problem no no fact check i said we are we don't know because we don't have the metrics and we don't have a good system which we all agree on there's no good system anybody who went down to the border was saying that it was wide open right and as we got that data i said this data on the ground shows we should shut the border that's you suddenly became very empirical about the issue i've always been empirical about it and i've also been compassionate the whole like both sides are

SPEAKER_64: to blame thing kind of ignores the fact that you had the trump revolution in 2016. there is some truth

David Sacks: to the idea that both parties neglected the problem if you go back far enough like you know tucker remember this when bob bartley was the editor of the wall street journal op-ed page they actually supported a constitutional amendment in favor of open borders i mean they really believed in this whole idea of free trade open borders free flow of capital and labor okay but that was a long

SPEAKER_122: time ago and you know with the rise of trump in 2015 2016 it became a different party trump got elected on building a wall yeah and what happened the democrats fought him tooth and nail they tied him up in litigation he was able to build hundreds of miles of wall but there were uncompleted parts of it and when biden came into office there were large pieces of the wall that were still on the ground just waiting to be erected and biden sold them off as scrap metal for two cents on the dollar do you remember this and then biden and the democrats proceeded in favor hold on a second

SPEAKER_129: they proceeded to just open up the border so please don't frame it as i'm against that okay just forget about you i'm just you you said democrats and republicans are at blame for this not in the

SPEAKER_122: last 40 years not in the last eight years no oh yeah no biden trump won a wall yeah biden opened up the border and democrats supported him in that and they thwarted every republican attempt to close the border and they lost three years hold on a second for three years they gas lit and pretended it wasn't a problem then when it became undeniable they claimed that biden didn't have the executive authority so they would need a new act of congress that was also total nonsense as trump said in the state of the union you didn't need a new law you just need a new president look if you want to go back 20 or 30 years you can blame both parties if you want to talk about the last eight years there's

SPEAKER_142: only one party to blame one party the democrats and that is why you look at the polling right now

SPEAKER_122: democrats their party all-time low it is let's get the exact number negative 49 21 approve of democrats 70 percent disapprove because they know that democrats cause this problem and democrats are the ones denying they're the ones basically making excuses for the disorder and the chaos right now the only democrat the only democrat who's actually talking since right now is the one with a head injury ironically fetterman he's a lone voice here i want to pull up this quote don't make no i mean it's

SPEAKER_278: amazing no i mean it's it's kind of sad but look i'm agreeing with fetterman fetterman says

SPEAKER_279: but the caveat that he hit his head i don't know what it is about democrats i don't know what it is

SPEAKER_278: about democrats it takes a head it takes a head injury for them to talk sense okay it's like a

SPEAKER_122: bulwark thing anyway fetterman said my party loses the moral high ground when we refuse to condemn setting cars on fire destroying buildings and assaulting law enforcement yes he's talking about

SPEAKER_278: january 6. i unapologically unapologetically stand for free speech peaceful demonstrations

SPEAKER_122: immigration but this is not that this is anarchy and true chaos so kudos to fetterman but he's the only democrat out there he's a lone voice and tucker's our guest i'm going to give tucker the last word

SPEAKER_48: on this topic before we go on to the next one and you are 100 correct biden 10 million net immigrants and trump 3 million which sounds like a lot but it's actually the lowest in like 10 administrations the lowest since reagan tucker you're our guest wrap us up here what should we think

SPEAKER_00: i think that we should measure the health of a country at least in part by the condition of its cities including the cleanliness of its cities and by that measure our country is collapsing our our cities are a disaster and the the richest part of the richest cities are fine and the rest of them are just absolutely awful and so i think that has got to be just job one if you want to renew the united states you have to make sure its population centers are clean safe orderly but especially clean there's something really important and i know that the left just instinctively discounts that but cleanliness is next to godliness and your city is a reflection of your self-respect how you feel about your nation your patriotism and if you allow it to become like paris or new york covered in graffiti and filth and random people from other countries selling fruit on the street and begging and having sex in atm vestibules and just like the whole midtown manhattan central paris experience like that's a sign your civilization is going under i think it's really really important and i do think you know that decay is not entirely caused by mass immigration but mass immigration has made it much worse and i just know that from walking around because i like to walk around cities i think it's a national emergency and the riots are just the most florid expression of that you know a burning car is something you can't ignore but we do ignore the condition of sixth avenue at 49th street like how can itself or the condition of penn station or you know of our airports like how can we allow that um so if i were in charge i mean i would make you go to dubai or doha or moscow or some place there's a sense of itself when we

SPEAKER_292: got soba in tokyo remember two years ago and we were talking about this exact issue it just well but

SPEAKER_00: it's true i mean tokyo is the most radicalizing experience for an american everyone who goes there is like i can't even deal with this i'm so angry that we've put up with what we're putting up i had to talk i don't know you did let's not overthink it i guess is what i'm saying it's not even about

SPEAKER_59: the constitution city bench about litter yeah okay tucker gets the last word on that and now david

SPEAKER_48: sachs gets to take his incredible victory lap economic date has been objectively pretty great the

SPEAKER_45: last two weeks tariff revenue spiked 23 billion in may 2x from february so there we go we see the impact of a little bit of extra income inflation continues to come down and uh what are we at 2.4 across the board there's some pluses and minuses in there we'll get into it later gdp okay this is the leading gdp prediction model from the atlanta fed could be as high as 3.8 again this is a prediction for q2 q2 is obviously not over but this would be a pretty big jump over

SPEAKER_48: q1 despite all this positive data the deficit remains the sticky issue some of our friends might have some issue with this and been vocal about it in may the u.s had 371 billion in revenue with 687

SPEAKER_298: billion in spend not good big high burn rate 316 billion dollar deficit we paid 90 billion dollars in may in interest on the debt almost up to 100 billion a month and uh if there's a nice sand key

SPEAKER_48: chart uh which we all like we could double click on that if anybody finds something interesting in here here's your deficit tracker what i'll highlight here for you is those first two lines 2020 and 2021 you got to kind of give a mulligan there for the coveted years and uh purple 2025 we are a bit ahead of the last couple of years we're 13 are spending now and you know obviously the debt service is a big part of this 13 above 2024 20 above 2023 and 65 above 2022 the balance sheet of the united states is really bad right now sacks i'm going to start with you this obviously has been an emotional issue and uh oh apology each month i just noticed i forgot to hit publish on last week's episode but let's let that go uh i won't happen again sacks what are your thoughts here well i mean

SPEAKER_64: you'll recall that back in early april jim kramer predicted we'd see a black monday

David Sacks: in response to trump's tariffs and that's all the proof that we should have known that we're about to get a bunch of good economic news and it wasn't it wasn't just jim kramer i mean larry summers was on our pod with that big debate that we did and he was predicting doom and what we're seeing now is good economic news is breaking out all over so q2 gdp on track for 3.8 according to the atlanta fed the may jobs report was above expected plus 139 000 cpi you know inflation down to 2.4 percent so growth is back inflation is low and what you saw over the last few months was the elites in both parties i'll give you that they were scaremongering on tariffs and predicting doom

SPEAKER_122: and they've been proven to be out of touch with popular sentiment and reality i mean you don't want to spike the football too soon but things look really good right now yeah and i mean in fairness when the

SPEAKER_48: trump shock and awe with the tariffs so he came out pretty strongly sacks you will admit and the market did tank massively for about 30 days tucker what's your take on the economy today this debt does it

SPEAKER_59: concern you and i'm wondering what because there seems to be a little bit of a rift inside of the

SPEAKER_48: republican party on the bbb not bill back better but the big beautiful bill what's tucker caulson's take i'm curious on out of control spending the deficit and this bill in relation to that

SPEAKER_00: well i mean i have the world's most predictable views i believe in physics so you know an unpayable debt tanks your country at a certain point that was pre-existing it's accelerated as you noted i i don't know a single person who's got a any kind of plan to fix it i think we're just gonna ride it into whatever the point of oblivion is but i would just say on tariffs you know my you've got the reverse kramer david was saying that's his measure of economic forecasting for me it's the wall street journal editorial page whatever they're for is poison um generally speaking and anything that drives them insane is a virtue and i just can't imagine a policy more perfectly designed to just make them like explode than uh trump's tariff announcement and i and i have to say i mean i've been kind of pretty conventional republican my entire life i remember when i decided the iraq war was a bad idea that felt like an outlaw you know idea when did you get to that point what what led you to the point of breaking well i went to iraq um in december of 2003 to see where a friend of mine had been killed and um so i was there right after the invasion and i just immediately recognized this is not we're not a good colonial power because we won't admit that we are we won't admit that we have an empire therefore we can't administer it in a rational way um just the obvious stuff but anyway the point is the last remaining kind of unexamined orthodoxy in my head was free trade and i happened to be just by chance at the white house the day of that announcement and i remember thinking man

SPEAKER_48: if this works what a caper you know i don't know what is the best case scenario in your mind of you know this tariff negotiation obviously there have been multiple rounds of it i'm not going to use the term taco but it does seem like we've shifted from shock and awe to maybe like kind of bore it's kind of boring like and and that does seem to be trump's approach right he in negotiations right big bang

SPEAKER_285: and then fall back to a reasonable position so i think we're in the reasonable position phase yeah

SPEAKER_00: what does success willing i i hope i pray that's what we're seeing on iran right now um but you're absolutely right i mean that's sort of the nature of negotiations of course um and there is nothing in writing with china so far as i know and it'll be reassuring i think when there is um but in general we haven't seen what jim kramer and larry summers predicted and that itself is amazing it's amazing and it it causes you someone like me is sort of on the sidelines of the economic debate but watching carefully it does make you sort of wonder like what other absurd mid-century orthodoxies about economics have i internalized that just aren't true right because that was the biggest of all tariffs are you know they caused the great depression we know that and and so what if like you can have a kind of mixed approach with some trade barriers that are tailored to your benefit and that sort of works in a longitudinal way if that's true holy smokes and it looks like it might be true so it's been

SPEAKER_45: true for the other side right they have been doing exactly so if it's true for china and south korea and australia why wouldn't it be true for us it seems like we're the sucker at the poker table well i

SPEAKER_00: think you're right i guess what i'm all i'm saying i'm making a pretty pedestrian point but i can't get past it which is this is so far from what the republican party stood for 10 years ago which was neoconservative foreign policy free trade um open borders as as you noted maybe a little more than 10 years ago but 15 years ago sure um this is this is the mirror image of it and it just blows my mind and it's it's such a better version it's such a more reality-based flexible thoughtful uh version than we had before and i'm just really and most republicans in the senate are not even aware this is happening they are the most recalcitrant people in the world also the dumbest so most of them you know don't accept any of this but just as an observer i'm thrilled to see it all right chamath uh can i actually can i um oh

SPEAKER_330: yeah sure no no no yeah i mean i know you like to go right after tucker it's very engaging well no you

SPEAKER_128: got me thinking about these um this is his dream when you're on he cannot in the group chat he's so

SPEAKER_332: excited tucker when you're coming on it's 48 hours of sacks being like when does when is the pod coming

SPEAKER_15: that's how i feel about david sacks trust me if you do if you had a camera at my dinner table you would

SPEAKER_64: hear something similar oh boy here we go go ahead sacks it's uh it's great to have someone to the right of me on the podcast for once you know it's not an easy task we invited alex jones and steve

David Sacks: tucker got me thinking about these unexamined orthodoxies and that is a good way of putting it i mean you know because i studied economics in college and you know i learned that the smooth holly tariff caused a great depression and it's like in hindsight you're like how can that even be true like a tariff is

SPEAKER_122: basically a tax rate on foreign goods and you're saying that you know increasing taxes on foreign goods all of a sudden cause a great depression it doesn't make any sense when you actually like just think about it now what caused great depression well i would say when thousands of banks went under and there's no fdic and everyone just got wiped out by that and it's a systemic risk so like one bank failure leads to the next one that's so obviously what caused a great depression is nobody had any money

SPEAKER_278: left they all got wiped out when all the banks went under at the same time right so what how do we take

SPEAKER_128: something that happened in the 20s and 30s and apply it to a much more dynamic world like today

SPEAKER_122: it doesn't make much sense well i think what happened is we had all these post-war meaning post-world war ii understandings that kind of got hardwired into the consciousness of our intellectuals and if you think about the the era right after world war ii the us was like the last great power standing it was us in the soviet union but they kind of had a different system they were not part of the um let's say the the free world they're part of this communist bloc so in in terms of the the quote unquote free world we were the only country that was relatively undamaged and we had this giant manufacturing base and so yeah obviously that the the fewer trade barriers existed across the world the better it was for the united states because it was our goods and our factories that basically were able to sell all over the world and so we proceeded to define a world order in which we just kicked down

SPEAKER_18: every single barrier to free trade because that's what benefited us now i don't know that that means that that situation always benefits us in all times in all places i mean the big issue we have right now is that you've got a rising china and they have become the skilled producer in the world for all sorts of goods they now have this giant industrial base that we seem to have exported to them and again it was and we exported a lot of that because of this um free trade ideology that got so entrenched in our thinking that we just stopped thinking about under what circumstances this might not continue to be good for us and so we've ended up becoming dependent on them for all sorts of goods that we now realize are highly strategic and we're trying to figure out well how do we onshore these things because it seems really dangerous now for us to be single-threaded on you know on potentially adversarial power yeah we got it for rare earths or you know rare magnets and chips and pharmaceuticals and all these things but you know our intellectual class just never seems to revisit

SPEAKER_48: any of its assumptions they just kind of have these dogmas chamoff building on sax's sort of codification of truths heuristics and not getting questioned how much of it is we just codify hey trade good you know open borders good free trade good and how much of it is just incentives like i mean rich people paying off politicians to have more free trade independent of party seems to be what's happened over the last 10 20 years it just made more sense to put workers and to send jobs to the lowest cost place to increase profits for american companies which let's face it although it may have hollowed out our manufacturing and created this weakness in the four or five areas you point out every week that we need to reinforce quite eloquently the real issue is we did that because we wanted to make money we wanted to have the most highly profitable companies and we did succeed but maybe we succeeded too much and our companies benefited more than the middle class you got

SPEAKER_91: josh holly out there saying hey we should go to 15 minimum wage federally from the wrong yeah the wrong

SPEAKER_97: people one in the early in the early 2000s i think that there was a war of ideas and that there was a

SPEAKER_95: group of people that advocated for this reckless form of free trade and this globalist view like every

SPEAKER_97: country is going to meld into one mega monolith country organization that'll get governed out of new york by the united nations and its sleeve organizations and that worldview one but it was the wrong worldview and it didn't acknowledge that we have competing philosophies competing priorities competing ideals of what the future looks like and i think that we need to go back and reset all of those things if you just take where we are if you can just put the sankey diagram back up there's a couple things that are really worth noting that people need to fundamentally understand i said a couple weeks ago that i thought the gdp print was going to come in hot i think everybody now is sort of where i am

SPEAKER_93: so let me give you the next thing can i just ask you though why is it hot do you have a thesis on why gdp spikes so much or potentially did that's obviously a forecast i don't know the puts and

SPEAKER_97: takes yet and i think when we see the print we have i have a way of forecasting this stuff which is a bunch of signals that my team and also many macro teams all around the world the bond vigilantes to the hedge fund guys they all feed it to me and what i was noticing was that we were going to come in i said in the low threes and i think you know if atlanta fed is right i don't think they are but i think it's going to be in the low to mid threes it's going to be meaningfully greater than what people are expecting so let me just give you my next prediction my next prediction are two really important things what this sankey diagram looks at which is a snapshot of the balance sheet and the health of the united states in may misses in my opinion two very important things that have to change the first and this is a positive for the trump administration and the united states economy is we are run rating 300 to 400 billion dollars above forecast in terms of our receipts meaning the revenues that we will take in and you get to that number by looking at the last three months of tariffs and forecasting forward assuming a reasonable balance here so back to tucker's point yeah we all thought that this was like a boogeyman that you weren't allowed to touch it and that if you touch the stove you were going to get burned the mathematical reality is that this is actually going to work out much better for us than we anticipated and it's going to be somewhere in the range of 300 to 400 billion dollars of extra revenue per year that's a huge win so why is that important that then sets up this next cataclysmic thing that we're going to see over the next 60 days which is what does jerome

Chamath Palihapitiya: powell do if jerome powell stays politicized his incentive will be to keep interest rates where they are if jerome powell looks at the conditions on the ground especially when you start to see inflation

SPEAKER_97: stay in the low twos and approach 2.0 the real thing that he's going to be under tremendous pressure to justify is why are you not cutting and just to give you a sense of how important that is if we cut

Chamath Palihapitiya: by 100 basis points that's another 300 billion dollars now in that case that's not money that we get in but it's money we don't have to spend so if you add these two things together we are in the next

SPEAKER_97: 60 days going to have to re-forecast the american balance sheet where this is or we're actually going to be able to positively forecast an extra 600 billion 300 billion of incremental revenue and in 300 billion of savings jason if that happens watch out what does that mean watch out it means that

Chamath Palihapitiya: every single risk dollar is going to run to america every single one yum yum forget japan forget europe there is no place to put your money except the united states so i think that we have to figure out

SPEAKER_97: how to get jerome powell on the side of america versus on the side of what could happen politically because i think that there's probably a version in his head that says my gosh if i do this it helps trump and if i don't do it it hurts trump practically that is true but the reality is the

SPEAKER_91: conditions on the ground justify cutting okay so you're predicting this 300 billion two different ways

SPEAKER_48: in and out 50 billion a month it starts cutting this deficit pretty significantly your claim i just want to be clear here is that powell was playing politics not working towards the dual mandate which is very clear controlled unemployment at the 2.0 rate and full employment your belief is that he's playing politics

SPEAKER_240: yes i believe that these decisions are political i think that the federal reserve has veered

SPEAKER_97: away from actually controlling the money supply in the best long-term interests of the united states and more towards what benefits the short term and this ties back to how i started this what is powell's motivation somewhere in the 2000s jason we transitioned away from having the strategic 20-year conversation about what's in the best interests of america and instead we started to have these unipolar globalist conversations and the people that got into these centers of power the imf the world bank the federal

Chamath Palihapitiya: reserve the central banks around the world they all worked towards an agenda that is now being undone i'll give you an example of where this is now being undone just today the world bank undid a rule

SPEAKER_97: around being able to fund nuclear energy and you would have thought well hold on a second the world bank steps in to backstop all these developing countries when they're in the middle of all this nonsense right and if you think about a country that's developing what is the single biggest input to

Chamath Palihapitiya: that country energy and you think for the last 40 years of multi-trillion dollar bailouts we never demanded abundant clean energy in the developing world of course not because it was a political

SPEAKER_48: decision okay tucker do you believe the fed is playing politics here it's kind of hard to believe if powell was placed by trump and biden he's there was consensus there and his mandate is to get to 2.0 and full employment he's kind of trending towards that he's made a couple of cuts the markets predict he is going to make a cut here's polly market for september showing 80 chance of a cut let's take a look if that's changed since the last time uh so in september no okay well this has changed uh three two all right so here's your polly market fed decision in september no change 53 percent 25 bips 43 50 bips 3.8 so you put those two together you're you're roughly at 47 chance of a cut 53 chance of no cut so 50 50 coin toss do you think the fed is playing politics do i think the fed chairman who lives in

SPEAKER_15: who lives in chevy chase is a political actor are you serious what's his motivation then what's his

SPEAKER_299: end game why does he not want to cut rates or why would he not want to stick it to trump or something

SPEAKER_00: well of course i mean he lives in a world in which there is no one who doesn't want to stick it to trump i mean i know the zip code that he lives in very very well um i know the club that he goes to i know the world no no i would well of course not and i'm not mad at him i'm just saying i i i know the world well and um of course no uh no one in that world wants to be seen uh helping trump and trump has attacked him by the way in public so i don't think that helps either i think the structure of the fed governance is very weird i think um i'm not exactly sure what the fed is i've asked this question to a lot of economists including larry summers never really gotten a straight answer like how is it that um this is beyond political control i mean i don't know if we're for democracy shouldn't voters have some say in how this is administered but they don't i mean there's no direct mechanism for voters to be heard um in this the single most important institution in the american economy how does that which is a crypto government organization it's you know administering us dollars i don't i just don't understand it i think it's very the idea that you're going to de-politicize it by making its leadership immune from the control of elected officials strikes me as the kind of like mid-century dumbness that got us nato and a lot of other bad institutions the exact opposite don't get it

SPEAKER_377: the exact exactly thank you thank you the paradox exactly yeah sacks what would the motivation of the fed be here i i've asked this two times can't seem to get an answer what's the motivation of the

SPEAKER_240: fed just is it to stick to trump jason jason let me well let me give you another data point okay

SPEAKER_97: now let's assume let's just scenario play yes please what happens if powell rips in a hundred basis point cut right now i'll tell you so one part which is mathematical is the interest on the debt goes down we save 300 billion but there's something else that happens which is the fed does

Chamath Palihapitiya: control the front end of the curve meaning how do people borrow money for small amounts of time from one day to about two years if you make that cheaper we know is it's a test that's true as time what happens is people borrow more money that fuels more growth that will end up in gdp so what actually

SPEAKER_97: happens if you cut rates 100 basis points is not just the 300 but you can get this reflexive positivity

Chamath Palihapitiya: in the economy what that allows you to do is even if that causes a little bit more inflation you're actually growing yourself out of this whole thing so then you ask yourself well hold on a second if the numerical justification is there to lower rates and it has all of these other positive externalities for the united states economy why don't i do it the only answer is political

SPEAKER_48: i i wonder let me explain hold on let me just let me let me teach you um okay so we're at 2.6 percent on uh inflation he wants to get it down to two feels like we're in striking distance maybe you could maybe give us a theory here sax of what would the political motivation be i find it hard to believe that he's trying to sink trump for some reason as opposed to maybe just being scared of inflation

SPEAKER_128: popping up above that three x handle which then triggers them to you know raise rates so what's

SPEAKER_64: what's your theory here if you're pal it's better to take the risk of being paul volcker than arthur burns i mean that's that's basically what it comes down for people who don't well because what happened is arthur burns let inflation slip the leash in the 1970s and he's remembered as a horrible fed chair and

David Sacks: then paul volcker came in and jacked up rates to like i think close to 20 percent and caused a vicious recession in 1982 but by 1983 the economy had bounced back and inflation basically was under control and then the rate cutting cycle started and that rate cutting cycle went for like 25 years and then reagan got re-elected in 1984. so you you know you'd rather be a volcker than than a burns if you're a fed chair now you raise the question is powell political yeah of course he is if you go back to uh was it 2021 so the first summer of biden's presidency we got that shock 5.1 inflation print in may of 2021 if my memory is correct what did the biden administration do they sent janet yellen out

SPEAKER_122: to say it was transitory and powell got on board with the whole transitory narrative exactly and as a result of that he did not raise rates for six months and worse than that they continued qe i think they bought like 180 billion of bonds in that time period and that's what allowed inflation to get so out of control now why is it that powell did that because he wanted to get reconfirmed and yes he was nominated by trump originally but biden renominated him and he basically wanted the reappointment by biden he wanted to get confirmed and then the month after he got confirmed all of a sudden he shifted gears and started raising rates again once he was safely ensconced in his office so he did the right thing in terms of raising rates in the face of inflation once he was free from those political incentives but for six months he was intensely political and that cost the united states dearly dearly dearly so now if you're a pal you've got ptsd from that whole experience and you're going to err on the side of not letting inflation come back i think what with inflation down to 2.4 percent i think it is time to cut rates but he's fearful because again his incentives are to be a volker not a burns yeah and uh

SPEAKER_162: want to read a good book paul volker's keeping at it great uh book about has uh reagan going to him

SPEAKER_48: and trying to get him to cut rates so this is a reoccurring story just you know if if he had done

SPEAKER_122: the right thing in the summer of 2021 we would never would have had that bubble at the end of 2021 yeah remember that yeah and that that basically created a huge crash in 2022 and we could have avoided a good part of that if he had done the right thing you know like the fed chair it's not a hard job most of the time i mean these guys sit in their ivory tower and then once a quarter they come out and do this you know and basically testify and say a bunch of you know things that no one can understand but like once in a while you got to get the decision right and he totally screwed it up in that one time where he had to get it right yep and i would say this could be one of those moments too where i think he's being a little bit fearful i think that there's a simpler explanation

SPEAKER_52: quite honestly like if you look at powell's history he was he was nominated as a governor by obama

SPEAKER_95: then trump picked him out of the fed to be chair but then he was reappointed by biden if you look at the vice chair of the fed phil jefferson he was appointed by biden if you look at michelle bone who's the vice chair for supervision she was appointed by trump michael barr appointed by biden lisa cook appointed by biden adriana kluger appointed by biden chris waller appointed by trump so i think the

SPEAKER_97: point is that there is a balance of power here if you look at political affiliations that tend to favor a democratic view of the political landscape and let's be honest what benefits the democrats more a thriving economy and a shrinking deficit going into the midterms or the exact opposite

SPEAKER_128: the reason i'm bringing this up and i'm just harping on it is he's a republican who democrats have opposed so i'm just trying to reconcile this grand conspiracy that he wants to sing trump

Chamath Palihapitiya: i don't think it's a republican i think it's just a general decision i think these guys move the dot plots and you can see it in the movement okay they're going away from reading the actual data and moving in concert with the data to giving themselves a window to let the data play itself out beyond a reasonable point and my point is the beyond the reasonable point is the key part because when you talk to the large sophisticated pools of money yeah many of them are like what is going

SPEAKER_48: on here all right currently the big beautiful bill is uh in the senate passed the house by a one vote margin trump said he wants the senate to pass the bill by independence day july 4th uh senate math republicans have a 53 to 47 majority as you know they can afford three no's on their side since dems are united against the bill with 50 votes jd vance can break the tie obviously so it's easier if they can get to 51. seven gop senators are either no or maybe no three likely knows rand paul ron johnson rick scott four maybe knows over the medicaid cuts uh josh holly susan collins murkowski jim justice uh none of those senators have committed either way and republicans are now falling into three camps on bbb hard yes soft yes no until it's fixed fixed obviously uh some friends of ours were a little upset about the bbb and uh we had a pretty chaotic week the last week it looks like the reconciliation is in your take on the last week and the reactions to the bbb and obviously elon

SPEAKER_00: and trump's relationship tucker coffin i hate the whole thing this is not how to legislate i you shouldn't have a bill this big it's impossible to get your mind around it no one can read it no one understands it it favors professional staff over legislators and it totally leaves the public out it'll be a decade before anyone understands what it means um the lobbies love it it's just it's washington at its ugliest um not this specific bill though it is an example of it but just this is just not the way to do it and it's not the way it has been done throughout american history i mean there's just no reason to aggregate it all together like this it becomes totally unmanageable and totally undemocratic so you know i mean yeah well it's insane it's totally insane i mean can can you tell me what's in it no i mean you know like all of us know like 11 things we've read on twitter or whatever but like the truth is even the professional staff that wrote it couldn't if you had dinner with them over three hours really give you a comprehensive sense of what's in it and remember when it passes and i think it likely will um you know it's it's the law so that's by design in order of course it's by design of course it's by design it's just well i mean look it's you know it's just it's just overload you can't i mean every single part of this this is the economy of the city that i've lived in my whole life every single part of this is there by design it's been managed it's been thought through it's been written artfully by artfully i mean deceptively so you can't understand its purpose or its benefit and literally it is years before the ramifications become clear and again this is why we have committees you know a committee masters a subject and then theoretically produces legislation that bears on that subject with you know knowledge and depth and hopefully wisdom um the congress is not designed to pass legislation in this way and we've evolved to this and i guess i would um encourage the white house to try and blow that up i think it'd be better for everybody if uh you know legislation was passed piecemeal as it always has been um i think part of the problem is the leadership in the congress and nobody wants to say it is just embarrassing it's totally embarrassing and i would say the conference isn't united either i mean this is part of the problem with trump's agenda it's the beauty of trump's agenda in my opinion but it's you know it's so different from what your average 65 year old republican was raised believing it's so different from what fox news is telling you it's the mirror image of what the wall street journal editorial page is telling you that there are just not that many members of the house or the senate who are truly on board with trump's message even now and of course they kowtow to the man but when it really comes down to it they hate his stated agenda

SPEAKER_153: and and that's why the agenda unpack what do they hate most what they hate most is not even a close call

SPEAKER_00: they hate his foreign policy views they hate his foreign policy views because look out of 535 members of the house and senate i would say 510 have given up on improving the united states through their jobs like they they know they can't it's like intractable this is their view it's complex it's boring it's difficult and it's super hard to solve and the numbers in the house and senate make it practically impossible to move the ball on whatever issue they care about or were elected on and so they take all of that energy and they apply it to making the rest of the world better fighting for democracy or you know the the the grander the description the the less accountability there is you know if we're

SPEAKER_406: just like fighting for churchill against hitler like it's always a win because we don't know any

SPEAKER_298: of the details it's a simpler yeah it's a simpler cause for them to take on than looking at how exactly

SPEAKER_45: what would you like to see trump do tucker what would tucker carlson advise if you were in the white house which many people have requested that you do that if you were at the right hand of the

SPEAKER_00: father what would you tell them to do understand the politician brain which is reptilian by its nature it responds only to pain period only to pain so if you want a politician to do your bidding it's a super simple conversation do what i ask or i will make sure you lose your job and by the way trump

SPEAKER_410: has the power to do that which is what elon said on twitter just put it out it's no it's true and i do

SPEAKER_00: think if there's one you know number of criticisms of any living person but one i would level it trump is he is he's nice like he likes to get along with people he actually doesn't like to fight in person that is true he likes to get along with people no one will believe that but i've seen it a lot and i think it's tough for him to say it's easy for him to you know go after a reptile like mitch mcconnell like at a press conference you'll make fun of cocaine mitch or whatever but to really go to mcconnell and say yeah listen son you know this is going to hurt in in the following six ways unless you obey you little which is really what he ought to be saying no i mean it i absolutely mean it and be saying that to all of these guys tom cotton are you joking how does tom cotton have a say in anything you know and oh i'm you know you're that chairman of the intel committee i'm so impressed listen tom cotton you represent a state that likes me a lot more than you so if i find you undermining me yet again and tom cotton spends an awful lot of time undermining trump like tom cotton hates trump actually of course um but if i find you doing that i'm going to take your senate seat away and that's gonna be really easy for me to do and i really wish he would do that it would only take one cycle to clear out you know to really get some discipline like the french in algeria you know for the encouragement of the others the first guy goes out of the helicopter and then the second guy is super talkative if you did that in the united

SPEAKER_85: states senate you would have a much more coherent um party i think okay like in about a cycle more

SPEAKER_48: leadership a little more stick than carrot uh who wants to go a lot of other sacks a lot more stick okay here we go tucker says more stick sacks what you're feeling are we still talking about the big beautiful bill what are we talking about yeah i mean well i mean we're talking about it all everybody wants to hear you know about our takes on the kerfuffle between elon and uh trump obviously in relation to bbb so let's just tackle it you can pass on it yeah let's we gotta put it

SPEAKER_417: out here before we're an hour into the episode let's just talk about it let me speak to bbb for

SPEAKER_64: a second so listen if the question is whether i can defend a system that produces two trillion

David Sacks: deficits every year no i i can't i can't even defend the senate rules that require you to get 60 votes for

SPEAKER_122: some things and 50 votes for other things i mean it's all just seems kind of random when you're an outsider but those are the rules is they've got these crazy bird rules and once a year you get to do this reconciliation bill where it only takes 50 votes instead of 60 votes to pass something which means you can actually get something done without the democrats which is a rare opportunity and you know you just have to basically come up with um a nexus to a budgetary issue and so that's what the bbb has done and as a result of of that conduit i guess you could say that it's a way for the president to ratify many of his most important campaign promises from the 2024 election and so you've got the tax cut extension in here you've got full funding of border security for four years you've got no tax on tips you've got drill baby drill you've got the missile defense shield so these are campaign promises that are important to the president it's kind of a once in a lifetime opportunity to pass these things i think that republicans would be committing political suicide

SPEAKER_18: if they don't i mean the polling on this i'll give you some numbers so first of all the bill itself is popular despite all the bashing of it i think that popular with who well this is a national poll by signal which actually has a bias in favor of democrats by plus 2.1 so this is with the public it's who haven't read it i know believe it or not so um what does that even mean is that support for a big beautiful bill plus six increased funding for border security plus 35 that'll probably be even more now that what's going on in la work requirements for medicaid and snap plus 38 so despite the democrats carping on that point people really like the idea of of work requirements and then permanently extending the 2017 tax cuts support plus 19. so these are very popular planks of the president's agenda it's the only chance they're going to have to to pass this look you know i i said this three weeks ago on the pod the last few episodes that i don't support the bill because it's perfect i support it just pragmatically because it's better than the status quo and my view is that we should take this now we should get this done and then come back for more later and there should be a big fight over the budget at some point in the future but this is not the right time to do it we don't have the votes we're not organized and it would compromise these other promises the presence made and the time to really have that battle is at the beginning of the new fiscal year which is october 1st so we at some point do need to have a big fight over the budget there does need

David Sacks: to be resistance to the deficit we can't continue in this current state forever but i don't think

SPEAKER_97: that's the hill to die on right now chamath your thoughts on bbb and the kerfuffle if you want to here's what i'll say i was sad at the end of last week one is my friend and the other is my

SPEAKER_95: president and it seemed like a really profound friendship and so i was bummed here's what i'll

SPEAKER_97: say this week though on a much more positive note i saw elon on tuesday and i got to spend a couple hours with him at tesla he let me audit a couple of meetings with him actually it's always fun yeah yeah one was dojo and then right after that was the optimist team one thing i'll say is i've said this before but he attracts these incredible men and women to work for him they are inspiring just sitting in a meeting and hearing it what they're doing was amazing and then second to see elon in action at scale in that way is like watching a maestro paint a masterpiece it's it's really impressive and then separately i saw president trump doing a couple of pressers and he was in his zone of excellence so it seems like they're going to find some common ground here they are better together and i'll just say elon amazing tesla incredible and i would not be sleeping on this company is what i

SPEAKER_48: would say jason what do you think so we're not the main characters in this story obviously and when i saw what happened last week obviously this is one of my best friends for many decades and given the popularity of this podcast my decision was i don't want to insert myself into this have my quotes or my feelings uh about trump about the bill get weaponized and that's typically what happens when you have a friend who's the number one story in the world uh now not friends with trump but he is my president as well by default what benefit does it have to me to then speak about it and then have everybody weaponize it so i know this is hard for the audience to reconcile but sometimes it's better for me to just step back that's why you don't see me commenting on tesla or spacex publicly all the time because people weaponize what i say against my friend and i just don't like that and you know it's happened in books it happens in news stories so when elon is doing something and it's this intense i like to just step back and maybe take a beat that was my decision that's why i didn't want to do a pod last week everybody else can speak for themselves that's where i'm at how do i feel about it i think trump uh is making a mistake with bbb i think he should push back on it harder i said that in a previous episode and i think elon's 100 correct about that i also think if either of these parties can't control spending there needs to be like the what was it the norquist um you guys would know more about this but norquist pledge tucker where you you know you agree to not increase taxes i think we need something like that where a reasonable party says we should balance the budget but we have to control the deficit there should be some pledge like that that we force our elected officials on both sides of the aisle to take and i'm going to start pursuing that myself personally you can go to join the responsible party.com and i'm just going to start an email newsletter and just talk about it i think there needs to be a pledge that these politicians take to balance the budget and cut the deficit over some reasonable amount of time but i wish them both the best and i'm glad that the two of them have reconciled because that's good for the country we can't have these two giants at war the greatest innovator in our country and a president who's got you know an agenda which i agree with two-thirds of i may not agree with how he's doing immigration on the margins but i agree with everything

SPEAKER_128: else so i'm just rooting for the both of them because it's so important that for america that they get

SPEAKER_418: along great so in summary you're not centering yourself but you have a website www.jcal.com

SPEAKER_430: accepts apple pen not telling you to go to founder.university it's one dollar a month but if

SPEAKER_432: you subscribe for a year it's six dollars yeah you actually threw in a plug i have an issue i'm throwing a plug in that was insane i don't care listen what is it also sign up join the responsible

SPEAKER_48: party.com i'm going to start my over my own norquist pledge but also join sax it's insane you're insane i'd also like to plug uh chamatz substack it's a thousand dollars a year to get his reports and uh you can of course buy david's access to kill all in.com i've never talked about plugs do you have i've

SPEAKER_128: never plugged no no plugs from tucker tucker you wait what's in the merch store tucker you got to

SPEAKER_406: have something in the merch store alp america's greatest nicotine pouch that's all okay here we go

SPEAKER_48: plugs essential uh fantastic all right breaking news here foreign policy looks like a major escalation

SPEAKER_162: with iran could be happening maybe on wednesday it was reported some u.s personnel were being evacuated out of the middle east partial evacuation of the iraqi embassy okay oil prices move four percent on the news later reported that israel is prepared to launch an operation into iran u.s thinks iran could retaliate on spaces in iraq which explains the evacuations trump was asked about the evacuation said the following quote they are being moved out because it could be a dangerous place we'll see what happens the classic trump will see what happens and then he added they can't have a nuclear weapon

SPEAKER_48: very simple okay polymarket odds are spiking on israel action against iran 50 oh boy uh tucker can the west allow iran to have a nuclear weapon or is this more a wmd situation that we reference at the start of the program if tucker callson was in the white house which many of your fans wish you were

SPEAKER_00: what would your advice be here is it up to us do we have the power nobody wants iran to have a nuclear weapon i don't think the iranians want a nuclear weapon right now but judging by their actions but it could we prevent it is the question and if so how exactly given that we just lost to russia and the houthis um i'm skeptical um but i'm amazed by how close we are to military action against iran is no defense of iran of course i'm not a shiite for the record but i think it comes with perils that people are not considering or willfully ignoring and the main one is iran is not a rock or it's not libya it's not isolated it's a it's a central player in bricks 90 of of iran's oil exports go to china it just signed in a defense agreement with russia in january so it's not you know what i mean it has backup it has big allies that represent the majority of the world's population and the majority world's economy and land mass so the potential for this to become something much much bigger and unmanageable is is real it's there their conventional weapons are fearsome and could do great damage to our allies to israel and and to american assets in that area and also to energy production um in countries that we we rely on so i think the downsides are uh are really kind of overwhelming i think um a protracted meaning anything over a day or two uh engagement with iran would derail the trump agenda and the presidency and i think it could really sink this administration so i pray this this doesn't happen i think by the way i think the timetable is distorted there is absolutely no reason to the president has said repeatedly we will do everything we can to prevent iran from getting a nuclear weapon i think it's a completely reasonable goal nobody wants that i certainly don't want that and the israelis don't want it and the gulf states don't want it nobody wants that but it doesn't mean that it has to happen on friday actually and there are other forces exerting pressure on the administration to get this done quickly even before steve whitkoff god bless him meets with his counterparts in oman in a few days from now so it's like why in the world would you preempt a scheduled negotiation with airstrikes which the united states would the us is driving this is driving this and we're just you know how it's a combination it's a it's a combination of both and by the way israel is a country with nine million people in it i mean that's it's the israeli government um but they're also elements of the u.s government the head of cencom you know is in favor of this there are a number of republican senators who are in favor of this who are lying for example here's one i think interesting point um that's a statement of fact there's no american intelligence this is a statement of fact that suggests iran is in the process of assembling a nuclear weapon or within months of doing so there's none and yet tom cotton of arkansas the chairman of the intel can senate intel committee is out there saying you know we know that they're doing so actually you don't know that that's not true whether he believes it or not i can't you know i can't say but that's that's a lie our intel does not say that period so so they're lying because

SPEAKER_80: industrial uh military industrial complex yeah i mean i think they're they're a whole it's not

SPEAKER_00: it's not as simple as oh bb wants it i mean i think this is a very complicated um coalition of aligned interests but whatever their motives i don't even need to know their motives this is not a timetable that we need to adhere to it's a completely artificial timetable the president has done his best to resolve this diplomatically that's clearly his stated preference he said it a million times and he's being bum rushed into making a very uh snap decision that could have bigger consequences than we're thinking through so i'm very concerned about it what's your thoughts here can iran have a

SPEAKER_162: nuclear weapon and should the united states participate in if they do have one imminently which is a big debate obviously should we be involved in uh stopping them or should we be doing

SPEAKER_97: negotiations off power etc i think this is where i'm glad that it's president trump in the seat i think he's shown a consistent desire to off-ramp all of these conflicts and if he and whitkoff can hopefully hold the line with bb and everybody else i think we're way way way better off but you see this like every time we're on the verge of victory somebody in the military industrial complex invents some you know escalation of something so that we can just go to war it's the the answer always seems to be let's go to war or let's support a war or let's enable a war and the bulwark to that has been the president

Chamath Palihapitiya: if we go to war tucker's right this totally screws everything up i mean you could see oil double double what what happens to the economy of the world of world gdp of everything of inflation if you have oil at 100 bucks a barrel 112 bucks a barrel it's not good so you have to wonder like why would people want this escalation who wants this escalation and you see that it's deeply beneficial for america to

SPEAKER_95: avoid anything calamitous happening here so i hope we find an off-ramp and i hope that the president

SPEAKER_162: gets his way one thing people should know about iran is that there is a massive demographic switch happening here you can see a chart is this is this from your paid newsletter site uh this is yeah this is from chamoff.substack.com thousand dollars a year seven hundred dollars a month you get to have

SPEAKER_458: lunch with him twice a year is this is this from choose your responsible party.org no no this is

SPEAKER_459: from founder.university applications coming in for around the world uh here we go take uh take your uh

SPEAKER_48: nicotine patch and come to founder university iran 2020 uh if you look at the number of millennials gen xers uh this is not a boomer country and they're going to have a revolution when all those 30 year olds you see there that big fat middle 30 and 40 year olds who are on vpns right now and reading and watching what's happening in the west you do not need to interfere with this country you just need to let those 30 year olds become 40 and 50 year olds and take over the country we need to negotiate

SPEAKER_162: heavily the idea of going in there and creating a war with iran is exactly probably what those older people want demographics are destiny uh and this is an amazing actual anthony bourdain episode from

SPEAKER_446: iran and it was he said it was his favorite episode rest in peace anthony bourdain but the demographics

SPEAKER_241: here are just going to drive your ability as a moderator to cover so much ground thank you wow

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SPEAKER_162: david sachs the czar miss you buddy see you in la hopefully at the all-in to kill a lunch later this month jamaht palihapitiya great to see you good luck with your health and

SPEAKER_48: for my guy tucker karlson alp pouch.com slash all in get your promo codes going this is the number one podcast in the world after the tucker karlson show my last shout out i would like to thank

SPEAKER_500: robin hood for sending me their gold card you finally yeah sax and i have had it for 100 days i

SPEAKER_98: shat on american express because i think they're just trash and then they they reached out to me

SPEAKER_97: and it was so ridiculous for the black card no they didn't even offer me the black card they said here's a chance for you to apply for the black card and i was like this is this just proves

SPEAKER_240: they have no idea who anybody is they're nagging you they're literally this is the number one podcast in the world bro i mean you're having dinner with the president if any of the four of us ran a credit

SPEAKER_462: card company and we decided that we were going to have a ten thousand dollar a year credit card

SPEAKER_97: for big spenders what you would do is actually run a query to find who are the biggest spenders that you already have and upgrade them so that they're paying you ten thousand who wants to

SPEAKER_93: do the all-in card with us email jason allin.com bd lines are open we're going to monetize this brand

SPEAKER_45: all right everybody thanks again tucker you're awesome we appreciate you guys the best thank

SPEAKER_514: you the greatest see you next time bye bye love you besties love you sax love you i gotcha