SPEAKER_00: hey everybody we're back it's 2023 happy new year's i hope you had an amazing holiday i know i hope everybody's rested ready to rock fired up let's go any news molly you know what honestly for 10 days

SPEAKER_02: i couldn't have told you but i can tell you today there's dark plenty i did go dark and it worked it was amazing um we have a great show though we have major news out of spacex we are off and running with a big raise and an up round to start the year it's not all gloom and doom fantastic

SPEAKER_10: awesome and uh then after spacex we're talking about shopify two big news items at shopify they're

SPEAKER_12: eliminating meetings so we're gonna talk about efficiency inside of companies and they figured out a way to route around apple trying to obscure retargeting of customers by allowing one shopify seller to bundle their users and i guess share those users with other shopify users and do custom audiences very clever idea maybe a little controversial molly and i will debate it we'll

SPEAKER_14: take either sides of that and then molly's favorite app dark sky is no more pour a little out for the

SPEAKER_02: dark sky app and question apple's decision making just when it seemed like the competition conversation had quieted down a little bit and then we're gonna wrap with a little internet history we look back as we look forward oceans rise and empires fall people when the game is over the king of the pond go

SPEAKER_14: back into the same box we'll show you an infographic if you're watching visually on one of the platforms like spotify or youtube we'll show you this incredible visual of the largest sites in the internet on the internet by visits obviously you're going to know some of them but uh the change is really spectacular to see which sites get the most visits and i'll make a prediction about how many starlink subscribers there will be in the next seven years it's going to be a great show stick with us this

SPEAKER_19: week in startups is brought to you by linkedin marketing to redeem a free 100 linkedin ad credit and launch your first campaign go to linkedin.com this week in startups and coda is the all-in-one doc for teams if you've got a stack of niche workflow tools or if you're buried in docs and spreadsheets

SPEAKER_21: coda is the doc that brings it all together startups can get a one thousand dollar credit

SPEAKER_23: at coda.io twist all right everybody welcome to 2023 which will be a year of pain and suffering

SPEAKER_24: we're one minute into the year no it's gonna be great it's a year of the rabbit it's gonna be a

SPEAKER_00: year of gentleness and joy and carrots it is the year of the rabbit yeah um i think the rabbit is

SPEAKER_12: about to get a giant pack of wolves and ripped apart and shredded i think the rabbit is like

SPEAKER_30: gonna bounce along the mountain here and like three wolves are gonna rip it in half somehow we

SPEAKER_32: came back to the new year with a role reversal like usually jason's like i'm optimistic i'm like and i'm

SPEAKER_34: like no it's gonna be great i think it's gonna be fine like honestly it's where everything's gonna

SPEAKER_36: just bounce back here's the thing nobody knows so let's just start with that premise nobody knows but we'll figure it out together here on the pod we will look at everything from first principles

SPEAKER_12: we'll just break everything down zero uh what do they call zero budget zero based budgeting start with a blank sheet of paper 2023 and we'll just build it up from there yeah and no matter what

SPEAKER_41: will be what could go right that's the i love that let's make that our mantra for 2020 could go right

SPEAKER_44: in 2023 because we know what can go wrong everything war in ukraine taiwan covet we know all the things

SPEAKER_46: that can go wrong did you spend the holidays with all in guys because you came back on a bummer i did

SPEAKER_14: actually we were all up in tahoe three or four besties we had dinners it was great um but poor friedberg blew out his acl the first day you know skiing oh no i'm on day 11 molly so i feel great nice i feel great i'm just i think i have startup ptsd so i'm gonna put it out there everybody i am now in full startup

SPEAKER_48: ptsd mode this year has been you know like and i but i've been through it before but i feel like a

SPEAKER_12: vet who like served in world war one and world war ii and now you're like hey korean war can you come back one more time i'm like what do i got tired right what do i got left in the tank yeah uh literally my year the second half of the year was layoffs and shutdowns uh across you know i don't know 50 companies 100 companies and i have to say it does have a psychological effect on a human being yes to watch people lose their jobs to watch companies shut down um but having been through this it's part of the process everybody's going to be okay we live in the modern world but it's going to be as i as i predicted last year a double dip recession um sometimes these recessions are

SPEAKER_14: light the last you know whatever three quarters four quarters but we had those two negative quarters then a growth quarter now i think we're in the second part of the double dip we're gonna have two negative quarters the fourth quarter data will come out i think it'll be negative growth if not it's gonna feel like that and then first quarter second quarter could be negative that will represent the double dip and i think september is when we start to feel growthy again we start to feel opportunistic

SPEAKER_58: which means okay you know eight months of slog is what i predict eight months of slop okay and

SPEAKER_59: slog is another way of saying opportunity so focus on what matters there's the jcow we know opportunity

SPEAKER_61: i so based on almost nothing i think that it will really emoji do salute what when the emoji of the

SPEAKER_64: year last year i think it was one of the time i think it might have been the face it might have

SPEAKER_49: been the face palm it was face pop that basically represents it you know you can basically sum up

SPEAKER_68: you have like a face palm and then a salute i'm now in salute mode i was in face palm for the year emoji

SPEAKER_02: this year is going to be salute emoji for me i think we're going to be okay and here's why because people can't take anymore i like genuinely think that there is going to be a a bounce back fueled by sheer force of will like you know what no i'm not coming from three years of freaking pandemic into economic downturn into just like like 2222 was a gd bummer all caps gosh darn and i'm over it yes and i for one expect my level of over it to translate into financial performance and i believe that it is going to like i think people are just like no absolutely not over it you see investors like toward the end of the year they're starting to be more and more stories where it

SPEAKER_70: was like investors are feeling confident like it didn't you know it was rough but it hasn't been as bad as people thought it was going to be and all like so economics is psychological it just is sentiment driven and i really firmly believe that the actual prevailing sentiment right now is nope

SPEAKER_24: i like it i like this i'm not doing that anymore i like this approach of like sheer force of will

SPEAKER_48: we it has to get better and i mean listen there are green shoots happening yes so for all the layoffs that are occurring i am seeing green shoots one of the green shoots i'm seeing is some fundings and for some strong companies keep happening uh over the weekend news broke that uh spacex

SPEAKER_28: uh which i bought two um i bought two just kidding sorry well played i play i bought two starlings one

SPEAKER_14: for this house here up in the mountains and one for my home in the bay area as backups now you're like hey wait a second that seems like a luxury item and to an extent spending a thousand dollars a year it's two thousand dollars incremental is a luxury item but you start thinking about my job when i lose internet i can't do this podcast uh so for two thousand dollars a year for me to have a backup starlink that goes into my unified router and we haven't figured out how to do this yet but it should automatically fail over we don't have automatic failover yet but we will yeah this is going to be a

SPEAKER_48: pretty uh great uh use case for me and then eventually if starlink is better than my wire connection i might just turn off my wire connection so i feel very bullish about spacex because of starlink but

SPEAKER_70: take us through what's happened here i think this is a really interesting note because when people hear spacex i don't know that they always associated immediately with starlink and so that's a little

SPEAKER_02: bit of what we're going to break down here and why uh spacex is able to raise 750 million dollars right now at a 137 billion dollar valuation with a16z leading the round that by the way that valuation would make spacex more valuable than salesforce which is at 133 billion current market cap netflix 129 billion and lockheed martin 125 billion um this is also i believe a slight upround it's slight it's about eight percent higher valuation than it's may 2022 valuation of 127 billion dollars but it is an up round to your point right it's a green shoot it's a huge raise and it is a slight up round they uh spacex had a huge 2022 they raised more than two billion dollars in that year which was eight days it's like always so weird to talk about that last year five days ago um again they were most recently valued at 127 billion dollars in may 2022 starlink is uh the investable opportunity here i mean that's sort of where the that's like the secret money maker i think that people hadn't necessarily realized and starlink surpassed a million subscribers wow in 2022 that was fast that's fast and then spacex surpassed 60

SPEAKER_27: reusable rocket launches in a single year via i did see you launch and to be clear just as a standard

SPEAKER_23: disclaimer uh since most people consider me the elon whisperer i have no inside information elon's my

SPEAKER_96: friend but i don't have inside information about this can you ask him if i could have my own rocket

SPEAKER_64: no please do not use me literally you know it was so much better when people didn't know we were

SPEAKER_97: anything like mollywood inside of a rocket would be awesome can you just ask him real quick

SPEAKER_48: how many can you ask him texts this was something that happened with travis a lot during the uber uh heyday and travis was running is you know like hey can travis give the keynote at this day i'm like i don't know um but here's here's what i do know um they frame the starlink and this is as a consumer i know this um they they framed starlink as a better than nothing beta that's a really smart way to do it because they were still putting up the satellites last i checked and there is a really great visualization of this online i think they have 3 000 satellites in orbit of these you know low earth orbit satellites that's how you get the high speed and the low latency the closer the satellite is to earth the if you think of a cone if it's if you put a satellite really far in space the cone is really wide right that's the area of coverage if you lower it the cone gets smaller right it's a

SPEAKER_12: smaller area of coverage the smaller area of coverage then is faster because the satellite is closer to earth very simple way just imagine a cone coming like an ice cream cone coming out of the

SPEAKER_14: bottom of the satellite so with these other services i think they had like a dozen of these satellites

SPEAKER_105: out there now you and here it is there's the starlink um if you're watching this on youtube.com

SPEAKER_23: this weekend you can see like the satellite array and you know these things are flying through the air but they're close to ground close to the ground which means lower latency latency is the time

SPEAKER_48: between when you make a request and it goes um to the satellite back so it does work perfectly for zoom unless your satellite isn't set up perfect your dish isn't set up personally this is my personal experience or like there could be weather conditions i think that can you know alter it a little bit

SPEAKER_14: and then the density of those so for one area if too many people have it obviously could slow down so

SPEAKER_02: it's a little bit and i don't know if this is even solvable it's not symmetrical internet we should point out like the download speeds are much better than the upload speed so sometimes the zoom can be a little bit choppy but again if you're imagining that this is a low expectations beta i think what has happened and the reason that it's gotten to penetration so quickly in places

SPEAKER_70: that literally did not have broadband options yeah like you look at sure places in the arctic but huge chunks of the united states right you look at like navajo nation there just are not in the middle of the

SPEAKER_02: country there just are not high-speed internet solutions available and satellite has basically been a joke internet service and starlink appeared and people were like well yeah great let's go a million

SPEAKER_12: people signed up if you're a b2b marketer business to business your needs are unique you know that b2b buying cycles are long your customers face really complex decisions and most of the time traditional marketing channels just don't cut it you're not going to reach them on traditional marketing channels and they're not making impulsive buys they're making thoughtful well-researched buys aren't they right you do that in your business so here's the good news linkedin ads is built specifically for business to business marketers that means you so here's the only stat you'll ever need to know on why you have to market on linkedin linkedin ads gives you direct access to wait for it here it is the number keeps growing 875 million members the march to a billion linkedin members continues now what's important about those 875 million members they're not all rank and file 180 million of those 875 they are senior level executives and 10 million are in the c-suite that makes sense right and those are the folks that are incredibly hard to reach but they use linkedin all day long no other platform in the world can offer those kind of eyeballs linkedin is also going to help you reach your audience in a respectful business environment when people are on linkedin they're doing business here's another amazing staff your audience is exposed to brand messages on linkedin are six times more likely to convert let it sink in and audiences on linkedin have twice the buying power of the average web audience this totally makes sense right so make b2b marketing everything it can be and get a hundred dollar credit on your next campaign what a hundy for free that's right

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SPEAKER_121: so just to think about this putting aside spacex's rocket launch business which is a vibrant business

SPEAKER_23: as you pointed out they did 60 of these launches already and you know they've got the the big mega

SPEAKER_123: rocket coming out um you know on the mars trip and and you know going around uh and the the moon and

SPEAKER_124: stuff like that you you can and it's really funny we're now our producers are running the our producer

SPEAKER_14: notes through chat gpt yeah so i'm going to give you here this is amazing chat gpt which i have now figured out is just the ultimate plagiarizing content farm and i think there's going to be huge

SPEAKER_126: lawsuits around this like i think chat gpt should be required to put where it's sourced the information

SPEAKER_14: from that would be so actually really great like wikipedia exactly yeah so this is going to be and i somebody's going to have to clip this here message to sam maltman if chat gpt gives data it should say where it got that data from and start putting some links to it because that would be fair to the data provider if not then the data providers should opt out of having their information in chat gpt i don't know why this hasn't come up in the conversation but i had this great revelation over the holidays when producer brian was like asking me like hey what's a good stinger we were

SPEAKER_48: talking about like a a little transition for big little things or segment on big little things and i said oh let me ask chat gpt and i was like basically trolling him a little bit yeah

SPEAKER_98: now he's trolling me back in the show notes today saying you know it's about spacex are coming first

SPEAKER_23: well and it's true so now you're like oh do you need producers it's like maybe the producers can do more right you have bionic producers right so they can but it would be

SPEAKER_48: fairer if it put the citation and so this is what is going to be required of champion let's put that on the side here i like to do bottom up tamps total addressable market we talk about this with startups constantly if you just look at a couple of markets you know let's look at india population of whatever

SPEAKER_12: is 1.4 billion 260 million households so when you're looking at statistics it's good to look at households because an internet connection we bought by household not by individuals right so it's not like but smartphones would be bought by individuals so 260 million um households they have 600 million broadband connections so some of those are obviously businesses right yeah um and so you got to think you know 10 of you know those homes if they just in india uh and they were paying let's say 45 bucks a

SPEAKER_14: month maybe i don't pay 30 bucks a month something in that range let's say 30 bucks a month you could be talking about 20 billion a year right just in india yeah because they're not going to pay the same

SPEAKER_105: amount they're not going to pay 90 bucks a month like sure but they probably pay 20 bucks a month yeah so in india they might be charging 90 a month i think like you know any other service maybe they'll start at 90 but eventually it's going to have to if they're going to hit the best market be priced for that market and then i think a lot of uh look at the u.s population 330 million people we talk about that all the time 120 million households we've got 300 million broadband connections here again

SPEAKER_48: businesses are a big part of that they get 10 of that market 30 million 110 a month you know it's

SPEAKER_10: about 40 billion a year in the us so there's a big prize at stake here you start thinking about those numbers and then you think about how profitable this could be the satellite array that

SPEAKER_14: constellation is essentially a fixed cost business you put it up there's going to be some maintenance some will come down some will go up but there's a redundancy there i believe so you know they could be lowering the price once it's fixed cost they could start lowering the prices and get more people and you know just combine markets like that

SPEAKER_124: even brazil is another big market people forget how big brazil is um you know brazil u.s

SPEAKER_48: and india alone india alone you start looking at hundreds of billions of dollars in potential revenue with just a small percentage of the market and then you know so anyway let's just stop there

SPEAKER_105: any thoughts on that in terms of the total addressable market for these services

SPEAKER_142: no i mean i think we should go on to this idea of it as supplemental internet too and the question

SPEAKER_02: of like and does starling currently have all of this is predicated on households you mentioned businesses presumably there will be a business offering at some point when there is this offering

SPEAKER_70: now yeah it's business operating now like basically but you can start to do segmented pricing when you have enough kind of critical mass and economies of scale of satellites in orbit then you and and then there will

SPEAKER_18: be presumably like amazon supposedly has been working on this and launching lower earth orbit satellites and and is maybe going to do an internet service eventually i think so then there will be competition two or three yeah and you'll start to but then the competition leads awareness right it's like when you put a starbucks on every block all of a sudden everybody wants a coffee shop like absolutely coffee

SPEAKER_14: bean does better rising tide lifts all boats uh and that's the moment the million people who have this are early adopters like us yeah and then we're going to go to the early majority if you look up the bell curve there and kind of see this and then you'll have the laggards right and for businesses uh and to just give two comparables here verizon and at t you know their revenue in the united states left in 2021 133 per billion uh for verizon and 169 or so for at and t in 2021 and they have other businesses but they're primarily data businesses and i think that's what people are seeing here now and it is good to

SPEAKER_70: know that even before we get into kind of the other use cases for starling this is just that side of the

SPEAKER_02: house like i don't know i don't think spacex has ever revealed the breakdown in revenue you know the nasa contracts for example versus so we have no idea how much of the business starlink contributes

SPEAKER_18: but all by itself yes it's a potentially 100 plus billion dollar a year market with 10 percent of

SPEAKER_12: just say the top three global markets and people have been talking about and i this i don't think elon's ever said this but i've seen tons of people speculating that starlink would then be spun out it'd be its own uh ipo and then you'd have the spacex business and then you have the sterling businesses so there could be two ponies inside this one barn and yeah you know that could be amazing you could make a bet on spacex for putting satellites in space and going to mars you make a bet

SPEAKER_48: on starlink just for providing it um the thing i think that people are not taking into account here because these there's a lot of news that's hiding in plain sight when you do these market analysis when i do a market analysis i learned from bill gurley and uber that was my first upfront

SPEAKER_23: seat to me not understanding as an investor or as a human what market size was and he you know when

SPEAKER_12: people first started talking about uber they were saying okay the market size is lincoln town cars what we call black cars livery cars high-end you know rich people you know taking hundred dollar linking continental lincoln town cars then you said okay cabs add to that then people said oh yeah what about rental cars because some people might when they go to la not rent a car and then go full uber oh then what about david sacks he stopped driving his car and he recaptured that time he went full uber

SPEAKER_48: okay he's a rich vc you know he's odd but well then oh we had uber x come out okay uber x yeah a young person in la young person new york might who might have bought a car at some point in their life might just go full uber x all of those things contributed to the total addressable market that weren't anticipated airbnb you have people taking longer vacations uh you have people who are nomadic in

SPEAKER_14: lifestyle you have um people taking more frequent vacations all because so you can't compare it to

SPEAKER_12: just hotel rooms because the hotels still exist exist in paris and but all these extra rooms emerged and

SPEAKER_14: it just has more travel longer stays so here's what people are missing out on and you'll see this if you just say you know like starlink plus a keyword on twitter do a search on twitter starlink boat starlink car starlink rv etc and you will see people in the wild using starlink in weird kind of ways royal caribbean the cruise lines are now using starlink everybody i've never been on a cruise you've been on cruises everybody complains about the internet on cruises i i do not cruise oh you're never cruised okay great maybe it's cool i don't know

SPEAKER_61: anyway but but apparently i'm sure it's really hard to get internet like you can find lots of

SPEAKER_48: starlink yeah it was very expensive is what i understand and slow yeah on cruises so now people with boats are all putting starlinks on their boats and then you have rvs now they're starting for rvs then you have uh outposts uh and they have planes they've come up with one for planes and then you have buses here's what i predict will happen i predict that and i don't have inside information but i believe what's going to happen eventually is every and there was a startup doing this in spain with a it was one of these startups that was doing like share your wi-fi

SPEAKER_105: they had pitched me 10 years ago on in spain i think they were doing in barcelona or galicia or some

SPEAKER_14: town they put wi-fi on every single bus and then they created a mesh network and then they created a wi-fi hotspot in the entire city because buses right moving around so they want to know where the buses are they got to put an internet connection on it why not share it i predict that every tesla produced will have a satellite dish on it i don't have any inside information on this it's just a prediction but imagine if every cyber truck eventually or every uh one of the tesla semi trucks or every

SPEAKER_114: other car even there's no reason they can't license it eventually to license it just like satellite radio

SPEAKER_14: was in every car what does that mean i have spectrum i think at home and or one of these services and then when i'm on other when i'm traveling sometimes hey you want to connect to this person's wi-fi and you can make your wi-fi shared so and like boingo wireless guy didn't create it i think this is going to be a boingo kind of solution yeah where once you have an account even if you don't have starlink on your

SPEAKER_48: home you might be able to buy a starling 25 a month subscription which then lets you go on to any

SPEAKER_174: at any time with your mobile phone all around yes totally i mean there's a lot of kids who have

SPEAKER_48: mobile phones without cellular service right their parents give them in their old phone now imagine

SPEAKER_176: for 10 bucks a month you can get onto the starlink service for some amount yeah i mean internet service providing and providing of an internet service that is it's so interesting because it is obviously a

SPEAKER_70: massive infrastructure investment but it's an infrastructure investment that can also generate revenue like i was thinking earlier how clever it is you know look to spin up a rocket company

SPEAKER_02: is just a bunch of capex with government sales pipelines and it's really hard to attach an internet services business to your rocket company is genius because they each pay for each other and so if you're verizon and you want to lay fiber or you want to install 5g uh network nodes all over and you know

SPEAKER_70: towns are putting up flyers saying that you're giving everybody cancer like your your infrastructure

SPEAKER_02: you can maybe do peering agreements to make some money off of that infrastructure but mostly what

Jason Calacanis: it is is capex it's just cost so tesla so spacex sorry spacex has this great business where the rockets

SPEAKER_02: make money the satellites make money and they can pay for each other so the in the cost of putting

SPEAKER_70: up all that infrastructure is completely worth it and maybe even like evens itself out here's my

SPEAKER_48: prediction 1 million subscribers turns into 100 million subscribers in uh under seven years so in seven years they'll have a hundred million subscribers so one goes to five five goes to 15 so one goes to five in a year five goes to 15 in year two 15 goes to 30 in year three 30 goes to 50

SPEAKER_124: in year four 50 goes to 75 and somewhere around year six or seven or eight they'll have a hundred

SPEAKER_23: million of these connections so 100 million connections on average at 75 dollars each i think

Jason Calacanis: got 7.5 billion dollars uh in revenue per month so 100 million would be yes like way less than 10

SPEAKER_02: percent of the global online population so just in terms of calculating that damn if you're sitting at home thinking that sounds like a crazy number the in 2015 alone they had estimated that 3.2 billion people would be online by the end of the year so one assumes that there are probably what five billion people online right now 4.5 billion 4.5 billion broadband connections worldwide so 100 million of

SPEAKER_14: that is de minimis as jason might say as jason might say 8 billion people on the planet divide that by 10 you get 800 million divide that by 10 again you get 80 uh 8 billion to 800 to 80. so one percent of the

SPEAKER_40: global population having one of these connections would be 80 million uh people in seven years yeah

SPEAKER_02: and that is why friends that's why spacex just raised on a slight up round that's my hot take uh and

SPEAKER_14: so i think these things are going to be everywhere and it's going to make you question do i need to have a cellular connection so just like we saw dial up go away and landlines go away now i think the conversation moves to which works better a cellular a cable connection a fiber connection or a satellite connection yeah and i think most homes this is my other big prediction are going to be two connection homes internet is so integrated into what we do it's so critical why wouldn't we have two that's like the idea that people would have more than one television in their home seemed crazy in the 50s right it was so expensive where would you put them they're so big it's not this is not a wild

SPEAKER_70: prediction either every home already is a tumble connection home because we have cell phone service and like when my internet goes out i use my cell phone service so the idea of getting yet another connection like a backup connection is simple you have a connection in your home i would do anything to

SPEAKER_02: be able to have like satellite cell phone service instead of paying verizon to not build infrastructure in my area this is where like the the big big big story here we're missing oh is the infrastructure story like i'm just going to go back to that even though it's so freaking nerdy which is that because they have a successful rocket business that nasa is paying them to build yeah putting up infrastructure is a is part of the business instead of a cost of the business so because verizon and at&t are a foot dragon and redlining and ditches and they have to dig ditches and they have to do like it the infrastructure like the reason that starlink is going to get there faster is because they're putting satellites in the sky which seems so counterintuitive like digging a hole versus launching a rocket yeah but the infrastructure cost for them is already paid for make 2023 the year that

SPEAKER_203: your startup starts firing on all cylinders well how are you going to do that you're going to do it using

SPEAKER_12: coda coda coda is here to help you do more with less in coda your team can work on entire projects from start to finish and you have everything you need in one place we're in the efficiency revolution right now so it's the perfect time for you to jump in right everybody's got to do more with less you got to get the most out of each of your team members so you know what happens when your work is spread out across a bunch of different tools productivity suffers right in this market speed efficiency and cohesion is going to help keep your startup dream alive and coda is the doc that brings it all together we use coda here at this week in startups hey we track all my j trades go to thisweekinstartups.com j trading and you can see all the gorgeous things a coda page can do pulling in data from different sources allowing multiple people to edit it seeing all the changes that are made to the page the history linking to other pages within your coda instance you can operate and collaborate in one place to get projects done faster and time is money you know that so take advantage of this special limited time offer just for startups sign up today at coda.io twist and you will get a one thousand dollar startup credit on your first statement i kid you not coda.io slash twist all right yeah and just so you know producer chat gpt tells me uh verizon had 134 million

SPEAKER_124: wireless cell connections in 2021 right now my producers are like what's our job

SPEAKER_209: producer sound producer sam we're going to call it producer altman from now on i want to refer to

SPEAKER_23: chat gpt as producer altman producer sam altman who works for me now producer sam producer sam it's more friendly it says uh at&t 145 million wireless cell connections i trust chat gpt with these numbers

SPEAKER_48: because you know chat gpt here's what chapter gpt did instead of giving you all the blue links like google did you know and uh indexing all that data they're just scraping the data they just picked the right one running it through a processor and rephrasing it plagiarizing it this is what i've come to it's actually not it's a mass plagiarism tool it's index the world's information and instead of

SPEAKER_00: giving the rightful owner the click and the view literally what people said about google you can go back

SPEAKER_70: you can use google to go back in time and find the exact same article written about google when google launched like oh if google's giving you a snippet it's just plagiarism but it's not yeah well google

SPEAKER_114: giving the snippet at least it was the snippet not re-edited re-edited is what makes it not plagiarism

SPEAKER_40: but re-edited based on somebody else's work without their permission it's not plagiarism is not

SPEAKER_14: like every kid does right now they take out of the source and they rephrase sentences and every journalist producer sam asked how many at&t wireless cell can producer nick asked producer sam how many at&t wireless cell connections 18 and producer sam altman said at&t is one of the largest telecommunications united states as of 2021 it is estimated that at&t has about 140 million 45 million wireless cell connections some brewers consists constantly changing as at&t adds new customers

SPEAKER_105: and as existing has to change their wireless firms 18 is known as the wide area coverage

SPEAKER_48: and they're so what i would do is i'm going to guess if you do a google search and you pick the top four results here and you look at the top four results in google including the wikipedia then you could back into this and say which facts did they pull from which websites then if you built a tool where you just told a human rephrase this in your own words mm-hmm that's in some ways what chat gpt is doing i know i'm i'm greatly simplifying it i know that it's

SPEAKER_159: doing all these chunks and predicting the next paraphrasing yeah but it's it's like if i told like you said if you told a student write an article on you know i don't know rhode island and they went to the

SPEAKER_48: wikipedia page they wrote all the facts down then they put the facts on a piece of paper and then they

SPEAKER_40: rephrased it would that be plagiarism or not it's not considered plagiarism it's not considered

SPEAKER_02: plagiarism like you but i will say an important aspect of that is citing your sources like you can paraphrase from sources yes you are supposed to cite them so this is going to be how this is raising like taking from multiple sources and because that's what chat gpt is doing too right in no way is it ever presenting something i assume from just one source it's aggregated sources it's pulling from multiple and it's paraphrasing them all together now if somebody could come along and be like i wrote this paragraph in this textbook and chat gpt took the exact same information and just rearranged the words a little and didn't cite me then we might then you would be creeping closer to plagiarism but paraphrasing and repackaging information from multiple sources like no way that's not gonna fly that's just google

SPEAKER_159: that's literally google uh can somebody ask chat gpt to write a play in which chat gpt chat gpt and open

SPEAKER_12: ai is sued by content producers in court and they have famous attorneys figuring out if chat gpt has broken the law and stolen the content can we can we write a play in chat gpt of that just to get super

SPEAKER_235: meta here which is gonna end it with i win i win it's just gonna win all right write a play in which

SPEAKER_126: chat gpt and opening eyes sued by content producers in court they have famous attorneys trying to figure out if chat gpt broke the law enter here we go folks oh my god that's sorry i'm not able to play

SPEAKER_40: here everyone says it goes beyond my capabilities now it's like but here are some legal issues oh if

SPEAKER_23: chat gpt or open i use content produced by others without proper action information they could be sued for copyright infringement this would depend on the specific circumstances of the case and the laws

SPEAKER_247: jurisdiction filed another pressure legal issue liability chat gpt and open ai i'm a husband

SPEAKER_128: there artificial intelligence that's good yeah i mean this is crazy um we now are asking chat gpt what is

SPEAKER_248: if we should sue chat gpt yeah what are chat gpt's biggest legal liabilities as a service as a service

Jason Calacanis: oh here we go it is not accurate to refer to chat gpt as a service as chat gpt is not a real entity

SPEAKER_02: chat gpt is a name that has been used to refer to a specific version of a large language model trained by open ai as a language model chat gpt does not have any legal liabilities or obligations that is genius if it were to be offered as part of a product then it could potentially be held liable for any legal issues arising from the use of chat gpt so what it's saying is hey man i'm just a mirror yeah like i'm just a tool here you i'm google it's like you're describing it the way that everybody described google when it first started to aggregate content and presented in snippets and it's saying

SPEAKER_16: i'm just google well but google just in australia lost their case for news and they have to start paying

SPEAKER_128: news providers sure but everybody all over the rest of the world was like no that's dumb even here

SPEAKER_41: like even i think there's big news providers were like no that shouldn't no yeah yeah it is

SPEAKER_257: not an entity that almost all cases these things become settlements all right let's move on in the

SPEAKER_190: news here let's do it we got some interesting toby lukey we got some interesting shopify uh information

SPEAKER_02: today speaking yes spoiler alert of being sued spoiler alert for my prediction um two huge announcements one the company has created a workaround for apple's ad tracking app tracking transparency okay so as you know uh apple crushed the ad targeting market back in 2021 with the app tracking transparency update in ios 14 and a half that gave users the ability to opt out of being tracked that specifically hurt d2c and consumer packaged goods uh cpg companies many of which of course relied heavily on facebook and google ads and many of which were shopify businesses part of shopify's like aggregated network of retailers now shopify is trying to prop up some of that d2c business and fill the ad targeting void by creating a new tool called audiences and here's how it works um so it in 2022 shopify made these deals with meta and google for this audience's marketing tool so like we'll use these ad networks to market to our consumers um and the way the tool works is that shopify retailers can pool their customer data and then upload that data to meta and google's ad platforms and then marketers at these shopify companies the retailers themselves can target ads to lookalike customers based on all of shopify's aggregated data who might be more likely to buy their products this is a workaround for apple's new privacy features and this is what i asked our real life producers when we were going over the notes i said as a person a consumer on the internet yes what do what

Jason Calacanis: comes to mind when you hear shopify retailers can pool their customer data and upload it to meta and

SPEAKER_264: google's ad platforms what comes to mind yes so what's your response to that sentence yeah so if they uh

Chamath Palihapitiya: is there any personally identifiable information there um yes and assume yes there always is everybody

SPEAKER_124: says there's not but there is yeah i mean there could be privacy issues and should people be able to opt into that or not right so there is some data you said a much nicer version of what i said which is

SPEAKER_272: what the frig frig frig and also you are going to get a phone call from margaret the vestiger over at the european union because consumers who bought at one shopify store yeah did not expect no way

SPEAKER_142: opted in to having all of their data aggregated with every other store and uploaded to google and meta

SPEAKER_14: i would say uh as a shopify shareholder my interpretation of this is brilliant uh yeah

SPEAKER_283: i think users will appreciate getting more targeted ads as a shareholder at shopify i'm all for this

Chamath Palihapitiya: yeah also possibly correct i it's it's another one of these issues where uh people opting into it is

SPEAKER_23: the issue and so yes uh consumers it better say in a terms of service somewhere that we have the ability on shopify's platform to use your information to target ads to you and if it doesn't say that in the terms of service and its consumers are not aware of it uh they just need to make that people

SPEAKER_48: super aware of that it's very much like this um shopify checkout or the other checkout services if consumers opt into it where it's in the terms of service uh and then you go to the next shopify store and you don't have to put your credit card information it knows who you are and you log in and it's all good yeah uh it's a feature and it's fine and so this might require everybody to re-opt in kind of situation i'm going through this to a lesser extent like we moved off of one email service

SPEAKER_23: provider and we started these sub stacks because some stack is free and it has a network effect so i was like okay and it has the chat feature so let me give it a shot and i don't have to pay for my email services anymore when i did that i had my team run all the email lists through like the third-party

SPEAKER_14: software which was really impressive there's third-party software right now that will tell you hey these people are known these email addresses are known to complain about spam i don't know how they get that information uh these are dead emails they kind of basically give a health check and so i have like jason's list which is a 15 year old list and i got to take off like i don't know of the 70 000 people and i took off like 20 000 people bad emails people who often complain about spam i don't want those people on the list they can re-opt in if they want it and so i think this like really cleaning

SPEAKER_48: up lists kind of situation and then resetting the expectation with consumers is a smart move i think

Jason Calacanis: that would be a very smart move that there is no sign of shopify making so far what they're trying

SPEAKER_02: what they're claiming is that according to the ft article that we read about it which doesn't mention a consumer opt-in or opt-out at all is that shopify is arguing that retailer data is first party as opposed to third party so they're trying to say if you came and shopped at a shopify store you shop on shopify the way that you would shop on amazon got it and so we are allowed as even though it's an

SPEAKER_18: aggregated network of retailers as opposed to like a direct service itself that also includes an aggregated network now that's a that's a fine slicing right it's a fine argument it is i'm just going to say now a big mistake not to make a lot of noise about consumer opt-in or opt-out about this

SPEAKER_02: and by mistake i mean the kind that the eu calls about you about it like it's just your own goal

SPEAKER_121: you basically you know have to think about jurisdiction as a startup and uh it's clever i

SPEAKER_14: mean if the counter argument would be uh or like a parallel argument to try to think i always try to think intellectually honestly as a shareholder i'm conflicted right intellectually honestly

SPEAKER_48: if i visit a wordpress site you know let's say mollywood.com i don't know if you oh wait sorry that's the that's not a good site to go to don't go to mollywood no what is your domain name the molly

SPEAKER_309: if you go to thumb molly please don't go to mollywood.com nobody goes at this discussion 10 years

SPEAKER_36: ago if you go to the molly.com you can get the greatest mdma therapy you ever wanted somebody's

SPEAKER_312: going to offer you took the website down and when is somebody going to offer me a ton of money for it

SPEAKER_48: because i'm ready they will i think the molly.com is going to be an mdma right here everybody call me uh website when this becomes legal i'm accepting offers make sure um so what i think will happen is

SPEAKER_23: like if you were if i went to calacanus.com i went to the molly.com both are hosted on wordpress

SPEAKER_28: would it be cool for us to have an expectation that because we both use the same platform

SPEAKER_14: to host our content or our shop that we were had a terms of service with it i don't know it's exactly it's a sort of borderline issue it's tricky enough tricky enough here's the thing right if it's

SPEAKER_02: gray in the in the environment we live in now if it's gray don't try to fudge it like that would be

SPEAKER_70: my advice to start shopify is tackle the privacy implications head on sure give people i understand

SPEAKER_02: that giving people the opportunity to opt out is similar to the app tracking transparency thing in the first place but what the app tracking transparency thing signaled in the first place is the end of this kind of meshugana yes because because it is being cracked down upon so you don't want

SPEAKER_318: to be on the wrong side of that yeah they're gonna just have to make this clear yeah it's fine hey

SPEAKER_70: everyone it's molly wood co-host of this week in startups and managing director here at launch where our mission is to back builders and help build founders to do that we're trying to create as many opportunities as we can for you to learn how to start a company and now we've made that education a lot more portable founder university podcast is a short form video podcast for founders to learn tactical advice from other founders and operators it is for you it's for startup founders startup executives and founding team members and even aspiring founders with an idea or who are trying to build an mvp the format is super consumable it's 10 to 15 minute tactical talks with the goal of being able to implement what you just learned right away along with the founder university podcast we also have the founder university blog founder dot university slash blog where you can get the same tactical advice in written form here's some of the content you can expect from the podcast how to write investor updates this is crucial how to find a co-founder how to design loved products how to acquire customers on social media how to build an email campaign i mean we're talking the literal nuts and bolts of building and

SPEAKER_27: running a successful company learn more and subscribe at founder dot university slash podcast but there

SPEAKER_108: was also this thing about meetings hobie's banning meetings super interesting yeah there are other interesting things so that was the external yeah that's the external the internal super interesting

SPEAKER_02: the external is that at shopify and all of this is in response to slowing growth at shopify we should be yes so much like every other company they're saying okay we're looking for ways to get more efficient in 2023 and one of the ways that we're going to do that is no freaking meetings so they said uh friend of the pod and shopify ceo toby lukey sent a company-wide email detailing its new policy around meetings all calendar meetings with more than two people have been eliminated oh one-on-ones only no meetings can be held on wednesdays love it meetings with 50 plus employees will get

SPEAKER_70: shoehorned into a six-hour window on thursdays with a limit of one a week and employees are encouraged to decline meetings and remove themselves from large group chats according to forbes shopify expects to

SPEAKER_149: eliminate 10 000 calendar events company-wise as you said in the early part of the show when we're

Chamath Palihapitiya: debating like 2023 like this is part of the we have to be more efficient we got to do more with less

SPEAKER_48: yep we have to get growth back i'm going to basically you said i'm paraphrasing but i'm going to go down swinging i i'm not going to have this anymore so what all leaders are doing uh i started it today with our sales team here at this weekend start up hey let's do a daily stand up and over the break i said hey let's look at this crm software we're doing are we using every feature so if it's going to take twice as long for a sales team to sell half as much how do you counter that well you have to make you

SPEAKER_14: could make twice as you can make four times as many phone calls you could be uh you could make better packages or upsell people for 50 percent more on their spend you got to come up with some system

SPEAKER_12: to counter a slower market and this is part of that he's saying hey he downsized the company already now he's saying instead of laying people off what if i were hiring more people what if i just make everybody 20 percent more efficient and what i'm hearing here is more like less reactivity and more work how much of our jobs are responding to email responding to slacks as opposed to time boxing and saying i'm going to spend these two hours finding companies to email to invest in i'm going to spend these this hour you know emailing people to come on the show i'm going to spend these four hours making clips that grow the podcast whatever your business is time boxing and we we did a founder university episode on this we've talked about it ad nauseam on this podcast everybody in your organization

SPEAKER_48: this week could become 10 percent more efficient what that means is if everybody this week could be 10 more efficient not adding hours adding efficiency if you've got a 20 person company you just hired your next two people or you didn't have to layer off your last two people yeah so this is what everybody has to do esprit de corps in a down market get together and say in your company what's slowing us down endless meetings look at your calendar and i did a calendar review in november or december with some folks and i was like wait a second this important person is doing customer service stuff when they could be doing phone calls with lps for fund four launch from four okay let's let's get

SPEAKER_23: that off of this person's plate and move it on to this person's plate who gets paid a third of what that person gets paid or whatever it is to you know move this stuff around yeah and um yeah be more

SPEAKER_312: efficient great job toby it's interesting too because meetings i mean this is i i think this is

SPEAKER_02: addition by subtraction in the best possible way because the way that you get to efficiency is

SPEAKER_70: a hundred percent about figuring about editing yeah and he said you know it was quoted as saying the best thing founders can do is subtraction everybody knows that they have too many meetings especially at like at a big company at a big company there are so many stupid meetings where at least half the people who are in the meeting don't need to be there and it's just a time suck and to take that away means

SPEAKER_02: that people don't have to work from six to eight pm because they just got back two hours that they were wasting yeah like this is great this is great management these kinds of efficiencies are key and even just saying like i try my damnedest to make friday and no meeting day because or to make it an only internal meeting day because they're they're like you have to make room for work time

Jason Calacanis: boxing does that time boxing says these three hours are just for me to literally do the work instead of

SPEAKER_14: talking about the work i love this yep quote from shopify's vpf product people join shopify to build to make cool ish ish to see the thing they had their hands on get released so they can say whoa i made that meetings are a bug along that journey elon says like if you're in a meeting i think one of his

SPEAKER_48: meeting rules is if you're in a meeting you're not contributing leave it's okay to leave he gave permission to people to walk out of a meeting if they don't feel they need to be there that's you know i think meeting culture middle management culture is something that kills companies yeah you want people in a company to be building something you make something you sell something you support the people who do those two things this is what i've always believed as an entrepreneur you make the product you sell the product or you support the two people who do and then everybody wants to insert a management layer and then the managers then put more managers in and then you have this managerial class and in some cases like what value are they actually providing that they're lording over some

SPEAKER_12: group of people making the product and then some group of people selling the product and what is their actual business what their business is meeting with people right and then checking that they're doing their work well if people are working from home and they're accountable to each other through time boxing sod end of day reporting and they're actually builders you need much less managers and that's

SPEAKER_14: what people are thinking about right now that's what people are considering right now exactly like this

SPEAKER_142: is a huge part of when we were having that conversation about the culture shift and the the

SPEAKER_02: you know we had that like worker versus manager yeah conversation but one of the one of those conversations is that management as a class did not adjust at every company to remote work and one of

SPEAKER_70: the ways you adjust to remote work is to say the idea of performative meetings and performative check-ins so that you can prove to me that you're working as opposed to me managing to your outcomes and making sure that those outcomes are occurring that didn't entirely go away and so this could happen at a company that wasn't working remotely also the meeting culture thing but it works even better and frankly it does allow you not to be mercenary but allow you to eliminate an entire layer of pretty highly paid people which is not to say you don't need any product managers right you do need an organizing layer

SPEAKER_02: like you need a layer of some of like you need a a layer of some and it could just be like one person per hundred who's just like is this on track has everybody talked to everyone they need to talk

SPEAKER_18: those people could be player coaches so or their player coaches exactly right like if you look at

SPEAKER_48: you are people don't know this but you help produce the show so before the show goes on air you spend a half hour with the producers looking at what they put in the show and going back and forth you're a player coach you're on you're playing right now you're doing the show as a performer as the co-host but you're also coaching everybody before the show goes on and doing the helping the production right so that role you know you're doing some management but you're also you know uh actually doing work and i think that's where things are going to go if you're

SPEAKER_12: want to be like the idea of a sales manager who doesn't sell a developer who doesn't write code the idea of um a product manager who doesn't make mock-ups you know all of that's going to go away

SPEAKER_14: yeah i think in a market like this people are going to say you know what fire those two layers

SPEAKER_12: of management who's the third person okay who's the top salesperson have the top salesperson sell 80 of the time and manage 20 of the time that's where all this is going in my mind in

SPEAKER_14: a down market and of course when things go gangbusters at some point we'll start adding more fat

SPEAKER_70: but right now because you might find you need it to be more like 50 50 like managing is real and it's

SPEAKER_02: a real skill and making sure that people are okay you know like especially at a big company again the more people you have the more you do need to make sure the outcomes are occurring and then optimize when

SPEAKER_18: they're not maybe it's 50 50 and you're like oh we need a person but yeah like right now no time for

SPEAKER_355: that nobody's got time for that one of the other big uh trends we're looking toward in 2023 is what

SPEAKER_02: is going to happen if anything around all of this like antitrust and anti-competition legislation and

SPEAKER_18: into that company tech companies have spent tons of money making sure that like amy klobuchar klobuchar's antitrust bill didn't go anywhere but into that huh like over the holiday her whole

SPEAKER_312: antitrust bill just got like it's in hibernation yep they just uh spent a bergillion kertrillion

SPEAKER_02: dollars to make that all go away and yeah and and apparently big tech is feeling fine about where they're sitting right now because apple went ahead uh-huh over the weekend with its uh as of january 1st with its very controversial and consumer infuriating plan to shut down dark sky dark sky is a weather app dark sky was beloved like it launched and it was a freaking sensation it's graphically stunning you could like you can zoom out to the whole globe and it gives you hour by hour micro targeted broadcasting it was a sensation it was like i think i paid 20 for it it was so awesome it was cross platform it was incredible and then in march 2020 apple bought it and it came out a long time ago like i feel like i've been using dark sky for almost 10 years in 2020 yeah it was founded in 2011 and launched in 2012. so everybody is like used to loving this app on apple and android apple comes along in 2020 and buys it and immediately shuts down the android app and announces that it's going to kill dark sky as of january 1 2023 because they're going to incorporate its features into the apple weather app and release

SPEAKER_70: an api and i have to say that this is one of those things where they announced it and i was furious and i tweeted about it i ranted about it and but i was like there's no freaking way they're actually going

SPEAKER_108: to do that they're going to trust in your mind here they bought it they own it it's anti-competitive because they caught and killed a competitor catch and kill yeah it's against anti-competitive so

SPEAKER_23: explain that to the audience who might not understand the concept here of why this feels

SPEAKER_02: underhanded yeah so this is why i'm not disagreeing by the way i'm asking on behalf yeah yeah no

SPEAKER_70: absolutely 100 this is why for example um lena khan when she came in as chair of the ftc and even in the amy klobuchar antitrust bill there are provisions about acquisitions and lena khan had said at one point i think that they were the ftc was going to go back in time and review some acquisitions to make sure that they weren't anti-competitive because it's

SPEAKER_02: a very common practice to take an up-and-comer buy them incorporate the technology and shut down the competitor or in the case of instagram just acquire it and you know make it part of your business but potentially starve it of resources so it doesn't like cannibalize the big blue yeah that's the kind of classic example this happened and so this is like a situation where apple has a default weather app of its own but dark sky which was a huge competitor literally removed it from a competitive platform android yeah and then incorporated all the best features into its

SPEAKER_70: weather app the only way that it skates out of it being a hundred percent anti-competitive is that

SPEAKER_02: they've now released an api from dark sky technology so that if you want to build a cool weather app

Chamath Palihapitiya: on android using that technology you can yes this was this has been seen uh with microsoft office not being available for ios remember that it was never available for ios it's only available on microsoft's

SPEAKER_124: failed mobile operating system that they ran for a while and then windows mobile oh once um bomber left

SPEAKER_23: he was like okay fine office can work on uh ios and it became some of the top if you go to the top 100 productivity apps i'm sure excel and word and teams and all that stuff that collection is available

SPEAKER_14: in the top we had this app and we invested in a company called swell personalized radio app and back in i don't know what year this was but apple bought it in 2014 maybe and uh they shut it down and so it was a really cool app if you look at the image there the way swell worked was it would and you can zoom in on that image um swell would play you a card you know like a tinder swiping card we would start playing you a portion of a podcast so it might fast forward you to the best part of this week and start this conversation right here on antitrust and if you listen to the antitrust section it would know hey you listen to this content now when you swiped molly uh when you got off of it or you thumbs it up or you bookmarked it that would give it some signal it would show you more of that

SPEAKER_12: so let's say you listen to sports podcasts and when the nba is on it knows from the transcript

SPEAKER_48: you're listening to nba content but then all of a sudden you know bill simmons's podcast starts

SPEAKER_154: talking about the nfl and you swipe okay it knows you like nba it knows you don't like nfl you jumped

SPEAKER_48: off nfl wow then it knows oh you listen to the knicks and lakers but you didn't listen to the warriors and the trailblazers it just starts learning and it presents you with you know deep cuts into podcasting app and uh the i think the reason apple podcast app is so much better now remember was like

SPEAKER_123: kind of you were in itunes and you were kind of i guess i can't use the word ghettoized anymore what's the term i can use so i don't get canceled you were i say ghettoized

SPEAKER_380: so you were sort of segregated i don't know if that's super

SPEAKER_381: yeah we're not really we're not like cancelable but it's not ideal okay so it's problematic but not

SPEAKER_48: can't problematic there we got it okay so can somebody please tell me a word i can use when i say they ghettoized that they put it in the you know they sidelined it sidelined it perfect okay so they're not as good as ghettoized but okay uh we'll get there folks we're gonna get there together

SPEAKER_41: on language police they made it like not a main character side stage there's got to be something

SPEAKER_145: good there's something some way for brian's asking sam oh yes chat gpt yeah what is a word for ghettoized

SPEAKER_24: that jcal can use so he doesn't get canceled yeah there we go thank you sam holtman thank you sam

Jason Calacanis: could include i said segregated yep isolated quarantined confined or restricted quarantined might

SPEAKER_40: get canceled for that too maybe oh you would not people might feel i'm me being cavalier about

SPEAKER_08: covid and then cancel me for that anyway if they okay well if they do that that's absurd let's just we can in the absurd line there can in fact have layers we can have layers policing speech

SPEAKER_394: okay let's move on you do it way more than i i do it because i think it's hilarious as a bit

Chamath Palihapitiya: okay moving on oh my god this is lame for apple to do this it's self-aware it's a bad look at this time it's a bad look it's the same see what apple does is they do this until somebody smacks their wrist

SPEAKER_48: right i message is still not available on android um app store is still not open you could side load

Chamath Palihapitiya: app stores onto android i understand right you can have different ones you couldn't have the i book the the audible issue on apple apple abuses their monopoly position until they get their wrist smacked and they push it as far as they can and then they pull back my understanding is apple is going to

SPEAKER_48: start letting people this has been a rumor that's going around that apple is going to allow other

SPEAKER_12: app stores soon um which i think is great yeah and i think if all the video game companies get together and they all make their own app store or facebook meta plus the video game companies create an alternate app store i think that'd be great for apple it'll make apple look magnanimous

SPEAKER_14: and i'll i'm not going to download stuff from some third-party app store why am i going to do that as

SPEAKER_258: a well that's the thing exactly i'm going to keep using apple use it yeah but if i want gambling apps

SPEAKER_209: apple doesn't let me use gambling apps right wagering app poker apps are going to be or some

SPEAKER_02: crypto apps you treat they treat every customer like a 15 year old or a 14 year old right adults

SPEAKER_258: 12 year old yeah right like or more adult themed apps i guess might not be allowed there so yeah i mean it would be like a it's an interesting like what i think is interesting about this move

SPEAKER_02: the quarantine area um what i do think about is interesting about this move is that they went ahead with it like it to me it shows some confidence that they're not going to get their hands left right now like they've spent a long time you know they killed the the android app a long time ago when maybe people weren't paying that much attention they've spent a long time integrating the api into the existing weather app and unfortunately like i'm with all the other twitter users who are like yeah but it still sucks it's all form over function it's too slow

SPEAKER_27: it's too graphical it's too hard to see like multiple locations it's just like blah um it's not for you you want the power app um what this does is i've been using for a decade

SPEAKER_48: here's all you have to do some group this this is an opportunity for some group of founders to make a cross-platform gorgeous app again they already have so go find people who worked at dark skies as a matter of fact let's do that right now if there are a group of employees who previously worked at dark skies who want to restart it email molly at launch.co pitch them on coming to our

SPEAKER_14: accelerator will give you a hundred thousand dollars to recreate not recreate i should say

SPEAKER_02: to evolve there's an app called carrot i mean you never use dark sky so you don't know but this new app called carrot is a literal clone except with like more personality and games and stuff so it's already it's happening because the api is out there yes um but to me it bespeaks some confidence about the current com the competition crackdown landscape that apple's like yeah we're gonna go ahead and kill it

SPEAKER_14: apple will push the envelope until somebody wrist slaps them when they get wrist slapped they'll respond and what they do is they push it so they can and all companies do this they push the envelope they build their moats and then when the most fully entrenched then they let things happen that are they open their system up they did it with browsers remember they banned dolphin browser opera browser

SPEAKER_12: firefox you couldn't use those on ios you could only use safari yeah and at a certain point

SPEAKER_124: people started shaking the cage and rattling and wrist slapping and then finally like okay now you can have it in your i think it's probably year five or six of the iphone they let people have browsers right they did the same thing with interrupt they did the same thing with uh audible right now you can buy credits on audible and then buy books you know totally i honestly think that um the other

SPEAKER_70: interesting miss you know look this might not be the world's biggest outcry i just did a hashtag search it's like 444 tweets in the last hour so it's not the hottest topic on the internet but people are very mad about it um it also seems kind of adorable that apple doesn't seem to get that the weather is

SPEAKER_422: kind of a big deal yeah like people are legit weather nerds anyway yes you're absolutely there's a whole

SPEAKER_159: group called like snow pals and um snowpals.org um and what snowpals.org is is i think yeah there's like i have a couple of these snow trackers and so it turns out the whole ski community there are a bunch of meteorologists um who uh will make custom more granular so to speak predictions for snow for mountains and they do it

SPEAKER_14: for tahoe they do it for utah they do it for hokkaido wherever and uh they've made like a little pop-up business out of it so these specific meteorologists are now essentially having their own like patreon

SPEAKER_23: substack subscription services and apps and you know they'll make like a couple hundred thousand a year yeah a hundred dollars at a time get a thousand people to subscribe get two thousand people to subscribe and you can get for fifty or a hundred bucks a year you know real-time reporting because

SPEAKER_124: the reporting on snow matters yes i have cameras on the mountain which you see surfing yeah surfing has it there's one for surfing and so yeah let a thousand flowers bloom the smart move would be and this would be also be a little anti-competitive would be for like a google to copy that model and then in their weather reporting have more granular services that's actually the direction they

SPEAKER_154: should be going like if i type in there's one for surfing well and that's what apple should be doing

SPEAKER_02: apparently those same people have a surfing one called magic seaweed if you want to be anti-competitive then make a better product right like the hallmark of you being anti-competitive is when you then integrate these services into a crappier product like the weather product is crappier when it actually could have become the flake by flake snow tracker or the built-in surfing predictions based on your

SPEAKER_272: interests and where you like to surf but no no they just made a crappier thing and they killed my favorite thing you don't go around killing something that's been around for a decade just to be a d

SPEAKER_433: oh yeah it's it's lame it's lame when they kill stuff i mean i get it i think they gave you 10 years

SPEAKER_48: that's enough no they got your 10 year they should just give you like a warning how much warning did

SPEAKER_142: they give you like a year oh they gave you a year i mean no no i'm just saying i'm just saying it's a bad look like if you really want this competition conversation to quiet down a little don't be

SPEAKER_01: killing people's favorite toys and giving them crappier versions it is a little lame it's just all

SPEAKER_105: right and uh here's a fun video molly uh we'll play it right now this will tell you uh which were

SPEAKER_12: the largest sites on the internet yeah over time i love when people make these graphics if you're not seeing it it's a bar chart you know and it's like racing ahead aol's number one yahoo number two msn

SPEAKER_147: excite geo cities lycos netscape bbc amazon etc and this is the most popular website since 1993 as it

Jason Calacanis: changes over time speaking of competition and how and yeah you see yahoo runs away with it when broadband

SPEAKER_122: happens and aol starts shrinking when broadband happens that's what happens in 1999 2000 is 2001.

SPEAKER_70: that's when all those yahoo people every meeting you had with them they were so cocky i'm just saying they were so cocky yeah they were like well we have a fire hose of traffic what do you have loser

SPEAKER_450: yeah and then all of a sudden right about 2005 but aol bought it here comes google oh damn here comes

SPEAKER_452: and then comes google racing wow i can't wait till youtube and that's like a year my space was up there

SPEAKER_123: now my space is falling yeah who makes a little comeback boom around 2008 and there's youtube just youtube and facebook coming in and somewhere we'll see twitter and here comes right in the mainstream wikipedia also getting listed at the top of google uh you get some yandex in there

SPEAKER_184: wow yahoo kind of makes a couple of comebacks over the years you got to admit it's impressive

SPEAKER_220: still has oh but there's facebook the dark horse yeah well facebook becomes oh and then one at some

Jason Calacanis: point yeah 2012 2013 facebook's just that line facebook and youtube bar later baby twitter coming

SPEAKER_124: in oh look at baby amazon below twitter yeah and a lot of this is about globalization if you think about youtube and facebook and google they just did a really good job building global services

SPEAKER_12: and moving to the inside you know google gets a lot of visits but they're short visits so this isn't time on site if this was time on site youtube would be higher here oh and there's xvideos in 10th

SPEAKER_468: place what's xvideos i have to google that i wonder what that is maybe i should google xvideos chat hey

Jason Calacanis: hey sam bot oh twitter's growing yeah don't do it wikipedia starts creeping up to your globalization point by just creeping up an hour in 2022 and google is far and away the winner youtube right after so

SPEAKER_176: google owns most of the traffic time on site but even twitter is still number four then we got facebook twitter number four baidu in there always great to look at the big thing here is what's a

SPEAKER_14: global service that you come back to multiple times a day yeah and uh you know social networks

SPEAKER_126: search engines and video the start of a new year is always a good time to revisit the past

SPEAKER_477: all right everybody great show we'll see you tomorrow bye bye bye bye