SPEAKER_00: love you guys uh hey if you guys are uh around you know anyone want to get a glass of wine and

SPEAKER_02: some maybe we'll get some wine later maybe next week or something who knows maybe we all get together in person have a glass of wine i see you soon i love you guys i love you best you're about

SPEAKER_05: to come to italy and basically you're going to gain 15 pounds for sure okay so we were there in

SPEAKER_11: italy this is a long time ago is this when we were in venice the quality of italian white wine

SPEAKER_14: is outrageous really it's outrageous do they have a men's bikini for you for when we're in italy i

SPEAKER_16: would buy that let's just say thank you to the amazing people of italy for having what an incredible

SPEAKER_18: greatest country for adults to go on vacation in what an incredible country here we go in three

SPEAKER_20: two hey oh ah yeah uh someone's going through hey everybody welcome motorcycle try it again

SPEAKER_26: three two hey everybody welcome to another episode of the all in podcast we are here in beautiful portofino italy and we have found a new bestie introduce yourself natalie is your name

SPEAKER_28: that is my name and don't be surprised by my surname ah you've got a surname uh what is the surname

SPEAKER_26: paliangritia no sorry palihapitia palihapitia so your cousins apparently and you run a biotech

SPEAKER_31: business i understand here in italy in my spare time yeah when somebody else doesn't consume the

SPEAKER_26: life out of me got it okay so you're uh dealing drugs in italy and welcome to the all in pod

SPEAKER_33: uh in all seriousness uh we are here in italy uh because chamath and natalie got married big round of applause very nice and uh we decided we'd tape an episode very quickly uh but tell us

SPEAKER_26: um what was it like uh at the wedding marrying chamath palihapitia tell us about the wedding

SPEAKER_28: it was um was a lot of work and chamath was as you can expect completely utterly useless yes we've seen this in fact in fact counterproductive he showed up at times really really frustrating yes um but i love him nonetheless so here we are very happy this is the moment i would like to take

SPEAKER_43: credit for 30 of the wedding ah and then a number that you can't dispute you don't really know what

SPEAKER_46: it means yeah and then everybody ends up thanking you effusively because they're like the 30 that they

SPEAKER_26: love the most that was me yeah yeah if you want to make an estimate 20 30 chance is uh you can't go wrong friedberg and sax are with us the don uh sax you had a lot of clandestine meetings here any are we any closer to peace in ukraine russia i saw you talking to some russian emissaries you've been on the continent for a full month tell us where did you go for 12 hours yesterday yeah i know that you've

SPEAKER_49: been on some of these crazy yachts out here trying to broker peace how close are we and how are you

David Sacks: enjoying uh your time in europe this summer i don't think we're too close but let me say a word about this happy couple here so natalie is brilliant and unstoppable chamath is superficial and plastic so this was like the wedding of oppenheimer and barbie and uh in that analogy chamath you're barbie

SPEAKER_26: yes absolutely lots of substance and fire over here and complete narcissism and plastic over here also the genitalia the same size they just can very smoothed over just barely a bump yeah okay

SPEAKER_62: uh i'm gonna leave you guys okay we'll uh we'll do a show natalie congratulations we love you

SPEAKER_64: sis congratulations thank you because you celebrated okay here she goes i wasn't talking about chamath so

SPEAKER_33: could you cut you off uh okay here we go here we go what a great great uh week we've had here lots

SPEAKER_70: of friends came in lots of friends lots of special lots of poker lots of friends lots of poker lots of

SPEAKER_72: poker players that weren't invited to the wedding were invited to the poker game i mean i mean we

SPEAKER_76: walked into the poker game last night and there were all these guys that i didn't see at the wedding and you invited these guys no no no to come to your poker game no let's be honest let's be honest i think

SPEAKER_41: it was the most unbelievably eclectic guest list yes of any wedding that's ever happened that's very

SPEAKER_80: true i mean literally it's like a two by two matrix of villainy yes wealth fame and infamy yes i mean

SPEAKER_84: you had every quadrant covered yes it was incredible guy and i were joking it's like walking into the bar

David Sacks: on tatooine yes i could tell that when i was doing my toast which smoth told me no holds bar just go for

SPEAKER_84: it yeah if i toast he really meant roast roast yeah the italians did not get the jokes yeah so like half

SPEAKER_95: the audience was laughing the poker guys were laughing yeah and then the family section not

SPEAKER_49: laughing a lot of stunts i think a lot of them got the jokes and they ran on it but uh what an amazing week we've had here um and thank you for hosting us it was absolutely wonderful this really is in so

SPEAKER_103: many ways we should cut in some shots in the video on where we're sitting right now this incredible beach club we're looking out here incredible people sleuthed it out i posted a photo of us

David Sacks: just meeting out there during our little board meeting and people immediately sleuthed out you're

SPEAKER_108: at langostaria or what's it langostaria paragi yeah i guess famous red beach restaurant i mean langostaria

SPEAKER_111: has these two incredible restaurants in milano three they're just top of the top and they have this incredible beach restaurant here and it's the hotel or sorry it's the restaurant that is beside the beach club that's also owned by the splendido where we're where you guys are all staying so yeah it's been

SPEAKER_114: it's been an amazing couple days this little block is called paragi this part is paragi and then if you

SPEAKER_41: go just a little bit further you're in portofino proper yeah yeah amazing wonderful food incredible

SPEAKER_49: food unbelievable we've eaten like kings yeah and uh queens as the case may be and uh just the hospitality in italy is amazing one of my favorite places i just want to say to all of you guys and to

SPEAKER_111: all of our friends i mean you guys literally flew halfway around the world for three days yeah you

SPEAKER_122: did ruin all our summer plans i mean it was incredible and and frankly i picked the we picked the three worst days monday tuesday wednesday yeah if you had a job everybody had to work

SPEAKER_43: a certain person had two rooms rented at the splendido just for meetings and he would just be running back meetings and then trying to go to the i mean it's incredible you guys i think this whole thing was a

SPEAKER_125: conspiracy to convene a high stakes poker game you knew you were spending the summer in italy there

SPEAKER_127: is no poker here and you're like how do i get the poker game to come to italy he netted a profit to

SPEAKER_39: cover the wedding no no not to cover the wedding but i did i did win a 1.2 million dollar pot from that

SPEAKER_125: was crazy that was crazy my favorite poker story is that you got a call out of the blue

SPEAKER_136: oh neighborhood it's the best i get a text oh my god need room splendido at like two in the morning

SPEAKER_43: and i was i looked at my phone and i'm like why is texting me at two in the morning yeah need room splendido and i said it's chamath is everything okay do you need any help need room splendido and i said i'm not your travel coordinator and he goes can you help me get a room at the splendido hotel i said

Chamath Palihapitiya: what you're here and so i said well why don't you just meander into our game yeah and so actually

SPEAKER_140: came to the wedding was he randomly in the neighborhood he was in the area well he was

SPEAKER_81: spending a night so he thought he would hop over here oh that's such a bad joke i stole that joke

SPEAKER_145: you stole it i stole oh that's how it works in hollywood okay there's a little backstory to all

SPEAKER_45: this what happened was chamath told me in the spring hey listen jacow i'm finally i'm so excited i'm gonna marry nat and i said oh that's great you had the kids and now you're getting married it's not the traditional way to do it but congratulations and he said yeah we're gonna have like a little thing with our families uh in italy very bespoke the kids parents that's it and then you know back in silicon valley in the bay area we'll have a backyard party for everybody else and i said great let me know where in italy we're going and nat said amore it's just

SPEAKER_26: going to be the immediate family and i said great where am i going tell me the location and um if you need an officiant i'm in and then a week later we get an email nat and chamath discussed

SPEAKER_33: it and they said you know what jacow's right we should invite everybody to italy and so uh thanks

SPEAKER_147: for making that decision oh my god thank you guys for coming honestly it was a dream you didn't tell

SPEAKER_148: anyone jacow was going to officiate so we're sitting there italian style for like two hours assembling for the wedding nothing happens you're all just standing around waiting for something to happen and then chamath comes in natalie comes in beautiful dressed amazing music is incredible and they sit there for another 10 minutes and they turn around and they say the officiant we just got a letter the officiant is sick we need someone we need someone to step in and then jacow pops up in

SPEAKER_84: the back i got it knocks the italian royalty to the right and the left plows his way through the

SPEAKER_72: audience makes his way to the top pulls out his american bow tie or whatever he had and says let's do this and then we had jacow officiate you did the wedding in a very jacow way yeah were you surprised yeah i

SPEAKER_153: was surprised you were surprised yeah a lot of people were surprised yeah you got me because

SPEAKER_148: your original email said jacow's gonna officiate but then we heard nothing for two and a half months

SPEAKER_49: yeah and no one really knew and but it was a big secret right we kept it a big secret we wanted it to be a surprise and um it was just the avows and the poetry oh the poetry oh the poetry shared was

David Friedberg: amazing i'm on it i'm on it don't make her don't make her no no no no no no you want to do that can you do a dramatic reading of the poem that i wrote for you oh this was uh jamath wrote a poem

SPEAKER_164: but we'll do the setup that comes before well so this the setup was

SPEAKER_26: that nat would read chamath's poems and chamath would read that's poems and so nat had this incredible uh paulo quello poems incredibly well thought out natural and um sorry then chamath wrote a poem from anonymous that he found um at a rest stop on the 280 written on the inside of the uh

SPEAKER_170: bathroom stall roses are red violets are no go go ahead go ahead okay you remember it you should have it committed to memory let me think yeah roses are red pickles are green

SPEAKER_175: i love your legs and what's in between oh god it's too embarrassing it was so embarrassing and she had to read this she literally just dropped all of the italian

SPEAKER_180: aristocracy and the americans all rolled laughing horrific it really was like no no no her her her

David Friedberg: first poem was a sonnet from bullying shakespeare my first poem was beyonce's cuff it yeah where the last line is will you sit on top of me which she has to say looking at her dad it was so it was so

SPEAKER_43: awkward then her second poem was uh something by gregory hoffman who was it gregory hoffman i think

SPEAKER_191: it was something hoffman yep and then mine was yeah this anonymous and then her third was he

SPEAKER_194: cummings and mine was dr zeus but that was charming this was nice but dr zeus was funny daniel hoffman yes well we had a great time there's been a lot of news and yeah you got here early right

SPEAKER_196: and weren't you like camping along the coastline yes i went camping he decided to bring san francisco

SPEAKER_197: to this beautiful pristine yes defecating everywhere leaving a trail of needles in his wake

SPEAKER_204: plastic trash i did i did post a thirst trap i'm very proud i'm down 41 pounds from the peak

SPEAKER_26: 20 pounds with uh hiking and using the fasting app that kevin rose built and then the other half uh zero great fasting app and the other half was osempic would go i don't understand what

David Friedberg: does an app do to help you fast you just fast you just don't you click a button do you eat the app

SPEAKER_54: gives an animation and then it counts down the clock when you're trying to decide whether to eat or not you push a button should i eat or not and it says no yeah it shows you a picture of yourself

SPEAKER_45: just a mirror it shows you a fat picture of yourself yeah that's what i did i took a picture of myself like fat jason and i just every time i open the refrigerator it's there can i ask you a

David Friedberg: question is it is it are you not allowed to talk about like fatness now or i i have shrunk feelings

SPEAKER_26: on this i think when i i ran marathons my whole life i was very felt 165 pounds until i was 32

SPEAKER_33: and then i added two or three pounds until you guys knew me and i hit 213 at my peak i'm 171 now 172 and um you know i wish more people would have done an intervention you were very clear with me hey

SPEAKER_45: you gotta lose weight we did oh my god i have to tell i'm telling the story you can't spike the

SPEAKER_217: story i'm telling the story no no no you can't spike the story now this is your wedding present to me

SPEAKER_43: okay thank you jcal jcal is bordering on morbidly obese i was this is when i was 213 and you're how

SPEAKER_220: five nine on a good day five eight and a half on a good day by the way for all for all these people on

SPEAKER_43: twitter everybody who who meets me always says oh you look so much shorter on camera and maybe it's because i slouch but i'm six foot two just in case everybody's curious on a good day anyways jcal jcal is is bordering on morbidly obese so i make a weight bed with him yeah i was 213 and i said i can get to

SPEAKER_122: 193. one yeah 193 and i was like i'll give you 10k a pound or something whatever it's 100k bet it was

SPEAKER_43: a hundred thousand dollar bet and it's a year he had a year he had a year a year goes by i put it in my calendar and what i do is i scheduled the poker game uh-oh for the day before knowing that we're going to play through midnight so i'm like oh i'm going to set this guy up so i waited a whole year unbelievable we play poker the clock strikes midnight and he had been eating pizza and ice

SPEAKER_227: drinking ice cream and i'm watching him the whole time like i'm going to win this hundred thousand

SPEAKER_43: dollars i'd never seen a spread like this and then i say hey it's time it's 12.01 it's time for the way

SPEAKER_231: he says one weight bet and i said motherfucker you made a weight bet with me 100 000 a year ago

SPEAKER_213: i have been 192 193 for months i have hit the thing i so he says he starts panicking

SPEAKER_191: because i weigh myself in the morning he says he's panicking he says okay give me a few minutes

SPEAKER_43: he runs into my child's bedroom and takes a shit no i just took a leak i took a leak

SPEAKER_236: he tried to lose the weight who can poo at midnight nobody can poo at midnight anyway i get on the scale

SPEAKER_239: i'm 195 and so he wants me to take all my clothes off i'm like no i'm not i say we have to do the way

SPEAKER_43: and now in fairness to jacal i did not pre-agree that i had to that i could pick the time so he says i have until midnight which is true so i said okay fine he goes home goes home i go in this does not eat

SPEAKER_242: he puts on a sweatsuit i go for a run i'm like rocky around san francisco he sweats for four hours

SPEAKER_184: he gets like a tenth of a pound under before midnight yes and then he's like you owe me a

SPEAKER_43: hundred thousand dollars no then he was kind yeah he said look put me in the mini one for one drop one drop and we'll both go and we'll pull it we'll chop it up we had a great time jacal lost in the

SPEAKER_101: first eight hands that's not true i lasted longer than you 100k i should just burn it okay back to

SPEAKER_26: you but anyway but i would say in terms of weight it is pernicious in america i don't think we should

SPEAKER_33: be celebrating it or tolerating it i think we should be compassionate i think ozembek and wagovi are incredible tools and manjaro um i i don't i i didn't talk about it for the first year david you've done it as well and you've been honest that you've tried wagovi or whatever and you lost a lot of weight so congratulations uh these guys have been skinny forever but um i think take it seriously it takes a lot of discipline uh but it can be done and um i encourage people the gains i've gotten from being 40 pounds lighter have been tremendous um i feel great my energy level is different my thinking is different my sleep's better everything's great and so i just want to be around for a long time so that we can do a thousand episodes of the show for you and the fans and um yeah being fat sucks the end and if you think you think but do you think it's it's being

SPEAKER_122: normalized and do you think that that's healthy what do you think i like i i think right into the

SPEAKER_148: microphone no one no one makes no one chooses obesity obesity is a struggle just like diabetes no

SPEAKER_253: no one chooses diabetes diabetes is a struggle i've you know done some work made some investments been on the board of some companies that have been involved in trying to address the needs in this space and one of the things that we've learned a lot about is how much of a social stigma it feels people that are struggling with obesity and struggling with diabetes don't feel comfortable actively talking about it yeah because they hold a deep amount of shame about it yes they recognize

SPEAKER_148: that there's something deeply unhealthy about it and they feel deep shame because they're often portrayed as having the choice and making the decisions that got them to this point yeah and the truth is

SPEAKER_253: we live in a world with extraordinary abundance in the first world we live in a world with extraordinary

SPEAKER_148: opportunities for low-cost calorie consumption we find a lot of joy in our lifestyles and it you know ultimately living a happy life can lead people to a very sad place um and so generally i would say that this is not something that should be uh stigmatized in in an open way it should be treated with compassion but it should be spoken about openly which is that there is a challenge and a struggle that people have and we need to help and everyone needs to kind of be cognizant of the fact that that's the thing

SPEAKER_111: i think we need to i think we're normalizing it and i think it's wrong yes i i when i first came to canada you see the pictures when i was like fresh off the boat that's what we used to call immigrants i was real thin skinny real thin and then after a year of eating whatever food it was that we could afford

SPEAKER_122: yeah i became really fat and you could see it in the pictures and i was fat all through my grade school i was a little skinny but skinny fat in the face but basically fat all through high school and then

SPEAKER_111: i finally started working out and taking care of myself and it had a huge impact on my self-esteem and my self-confidence it had a huge impact on my health yep i saw it basically kill my father it's given seven eleven of my aunts and uncles diabetes so i think that like all of this normalization is unhealthy because it actually is killing people what i learned from the dieting is portion control

SPEAKER_33: in america is just out of control it is the wrong portion sizes so you see it here and you see it here when you eat here here's a little tuna here's a small pasta you know here's some cheese and some grapes for dessert you're done and so once i got my portion control i was fine snacking also but i just

SPEAKER_262: wish anybody who's suffering from it um you know work with your doctors work with nutritionists you

SPEAKER_264: were overweight too for a long time were you free burn yeah i um what were you overweight from i i grew

SPEAKER_150: up not eating well i was overweight in college right in the microphone college is when i really started to

SPEAKER_121: get exercise actively and because it was never part of my upbringing as a kid was like eat well get exercise i i was very much self-taught i learned how to cook and learned a lot about nutrition on my own um and you know look i i took action on my own uh in my early 20s so but yeah look i mean it's so easy to not know where you find yourself and then you find yourself in this place and i do agree that being cognizant of where you are and addressing it in an open way in an active way is the only path i mean

SPEAKER_148: it's just every every cycle we come around with some new easy solution you guys remember the uh what was it fen fen fen yeah you gotta be careful that one yeah that was speed yeah and so look i mean the data so far looks great uh with these glp um clip ones these drugs seem to be very effective there's some data now that shows as soon as you stop taking it the average person on it gains the weight right back no that didn't happen for me increased muscle mass maybe not but like yeah you know across a large population there's just data that's showing there's never going to be an easy path and it's it's a

SPEAKER_33: very difficult um it's a process you know the the thing i learned is if you just have like one oreo a day or every other day let's say that's 50 calories you have one of those every other day you're going to get two pounds a year for 20 years now you're 40 pounds overweight it happens very slowly you add it and then you just have to be super disciplined and you can lose a half a pound or a pound a week and then it can come off so um i really think it should be a movement in the united states so much of our downstream issues diabetes heart disease cancer etc seem to be contributed by obesity so i think for our entire for the entire country i think if i ran for president it would be wagovi for everybody

SPEAKER_273: everybody anybody who wants it will go be forever it's my platform single issue voters there's a platform you can yeah that's it single issue platform um all right get in shape there's some

SPEAKER_33: news i think um we can we could touch on how you feeling i got a plane to catch let's do this so there was an article in vice i guess that name checked the all-in podcast it said young people instead of wanting to become mckinsey consultants now want to become members of the all-in podcast and be venture capitalists i did a little tweet storm that i thought and i thought it'd be a great topic

SPEAKER_26: for us i i think for young people going into venture early is not a good idea i think generally speaking 80 of the case cases and i think starting your own company or joining a high growth company or maybe joining a well-run large company or even joining a poorly run large company so you learn what not to do are all better things to do in your 20s learn be in the trenches but i'm curious what you think sax yeah about this issue because we came to venture and investing in our 40s i believe

SPEAKER_33: you know both of us angel investors and then both of us having fun so what are you advising a young person who's listening to the podcast coming out of business school whatever yeah i agree with that um i

SPEAKER_125: think the main uh value prop that a vc has to offer a founder is advice and if you've never walked in the founder's shoes before if you've never founded a company or at least had a significant operating role how are you in a position to offer them advice now i think there's a period of time during the bull

SPEAKER_95: market where people stopped thinking that way stopped thinking that advice was the model vcs started competing on the base of who could be the biggest cheerleader for the founder who could offer the most sort of positive emotional support largest valuation or the biggest valuation or least governance the idea of being completely passive not taking a board seat was actually sold to founders as a positive for them that like we'll invest and we'll just like stay completely out of the way and all of those ideas sounded really good when the market was booming and everything was up and to the right but now we're in a situation in which we're going through two years of intense turmoil and a lot of companies aren't going to make it a lot of companies are restructuring a lot of companies are going to take down rounds and actually being able to tap your board for advice on how to get through a rough patch actually is pretty important you realize now that like the uninvolved passive investor that was not a positive value prop that was an excuse for not having a value prop and i think at times like this it's really important to have vcs who've been around the block who saw the last downturn who ideally

SPEAKER_283: could have warned you that it was coming like we did on this pod like we did repeatedly for you know

SPEAKER_95: a year months yeah and so yeah i think that we're now seeing the correction and i i fundamentally agree with your analysis that there are too many people who joined the ranks of vc who fundamentally didn't have a value prop and that's why i mean in our firm we require that everyone who joins the investment team have operating experience and ideally founder experience uh because that is ultimately what

SPEAKER_288: you're going to offer founders chamath was too much of this people larping live action role playing vc

SPEAKER_33: with just absolutely no idea how this works and now what happens to those you know actor vcs who really are faced with portfolios that are upside down and they really have no idea how to weather a storm it's this has been a hard 18 months let's be honest well i think that it was a symptom of just

SPEAKER_122: the fact that there was a lot of free money in the system and i don't know the outcome is going to be pretty basic which is that they're going to lose money for their limited partners and those limited partners if they're not totally stupid will never give these people money again and these people will need to just find a new job and i don't say that in a celebratory way it's just a very practical ones and zeros monetary assessment of the facts look i think that the weird thing that has happened is that it

SPEAKER_111: became like this kind of fun thing to be able to say you were doing a lot of people used to moonlight and do it on the side then there were all these services that will allow you to basically like abstract the job but the only thing that i would just qualify your statement because i think what you're saying is like 90 right but i don't think that's where the craziest outcome returns have come from because if you look at the two people that are really or the three people that have really generated just gargantuan home run returns on a consistent basis one of them for example like mike moritz really didn't have those bona fides operationally but i think that what mike probably has and i'm saying this not knowing him is a preternutural like judge of psychology i think i think he's an incredibly qualified people judger and there are people like that now he's an outlier in order to do that but

SPEAKER_122: the rest of us have to kind of to your point do with what we have which is like here's our experience and our maturity and you know we're telling you what we think so i'm really excited actually for this wave to kind of crash on shore because the number of founders that are going to get screwed over by folks that don't know what they're talking about it's very high yeah and that needs to come

SPEAKER_253: to an end as quickly as possible yeah i don't think it's just mike moritz i think that there's a class

SPEAKER_121: of successful venture capitalists bill gurley's a great example like he was an analyst danny reimer

SPEAKER_295: at index ventures was an investment analyst fred wilson um fred wilson yeah a lifetime vc and moritz

SPEAKER_253: john door i mean john door had some door work at intel he worked at intel um but there's there are folks who have an incredible analytical capacity and that analytical capacity translates into incredible selection capability that selection doesn't necessarily mean that they are going to necessarily be the best advisors and i'm not saying that any of those folks are bad advisors but there are some venture investors like founders fund is very vocal about this and very public about this that their objective is not to be your partner and helping you make decisions and run your company and recruit people and all the other sort of rigmarole that many vcs go out and tout they are there to pick the best founders and the best founders don't need the vc to be successful and their job then is to have incredible selection capacity so if they can select the best founders and get out of their way they've made a lot of money and their returns are unbelievable and then there are some vcs who are really incredible partners to their founders and their objective josh complimented first round built an entire firm around this practice which is to partner very closely with founders and to build support and capabilities and recent horowitz was built on the same sort of concept that they would roll all of their fees into building operating support and capacity to support founders and support companies both firms have obviously done well in their own right um and so i don't know if there's necessarily one breed that predicts success when it comes to successful venture capital i will say from my own personal experience i worked as an investment banker for my first two years out of

SPEAKER_148: undergrad i you know worked i had a science background i worked in a short stint in private equity i worked at google i did corp dev and m a there i started a company ran it sold it did that with another business where i was on the board so you know i've i've been on a couple of different places around the table that you know i think have given me the ability to to provide advice i don't know if i

SPEAKER_293: necessarily have the same skill set that the team at founders fund and um mike moritz and others might

SPEAKER_148: have at this astute extraordinary ability to spot founders and bring them in so i think everyone needs to kind of recognize what they do bring to the table be very clear about what that is and i think to your point there has just been an incredible bull market over the last 15 years since 2008 more money has i heard an incredible statistic by the way um i don't want to get it wrong so maybe we should fact check me after this from someone at your wedding who i was talking to for a long time and he was like he was like basically the top one percent of vcs didn't beat what would have happened if you just bought the top five public tech companies and you know effectively did a rebalance over the past 15 years the bull market and the um the aggregation of value and technology have largely been 50 50 to public and private so you could have just bought a few stocks and held on to them and beat all of the vcs over the last 15 years even though a bunch of vcs have made good money and their ir looks like 12 percent but you have to beat the risk adjusted returns on venture negative and this

SPEAKER_122: is not to throw shade at even all of those people that you mentioned are terrible right like you should not have invested in any of those right because there's no way to ton it in any of those

SPEAKER_302: funds because you get a small allocation one fund does well three funds do crappy over the past 10

SPEAKER_148: years or 15 years i forgot the number we've seen the public market cap of these top tech companies grow from 1 trillion to 10 trillion that's a 10x so all you had to do was buy those and you would have made 10x and that works out to north of 25 irr yeah and there's very few vcs that have been able to be 25 irr they assume now he was telling me his model shows that over the next 10 years it'll be roughly 70 30 um so it'll be about 30 percent more crew and they think over the next 10 years it's going to go from 10 trillion to 25 trillion which is still a great return just to build on it shows how

SPEAKER_307: much of a hurdle there is in venture to be successful i started the business in 2011 so

SPEAKER_122: now this is the 12th or 13th year just how hard this game is i had about a 31 32 percent gross irr going into last year and then my irr fell off a cliff because i couldn't get into obviously there's like there's no money to distribute but there's nothing to distribute so my ir start to decay and then i had this really really up choice i have to start selling stuff earlier than i would have otherwise to get the money back out so to your point right now it takes courage then it it's a

SPEAKER_312: really tough game over long periods of time yeah a really tough game i think there's also something

SPEAKER_33: going on you know in the united states in society where there are some idealized jobs we talked about sax elites surplus elites and i i want to dovetail this with what's happening in hollywood the writer's

SPEAKER_26: strike um and the actor's strike and i was looking at it there's some unbelievable number of actors in sag some unbelievable number of writers they all make uh just incredibly small amounts of money on average and obviously there's some big fish who do well but it does seem like there's too many people

SPEAKER_289: who want too many of these idealized jobs and venture is one of those and i i just would like young people to understand also be careful what you wish for this job has seemed easy just like it might seem easy for tom cruise or christopher nolan when you see them or tarantino what you don't see is all of

SPEAKER_314: the people who tried to become tarantino who tried to become you know tom cruise and there are far

SPEAKER_289: to 10 to 15 years before they realize that they're not and they did not actually have the fundamental skills or the work ethic that is required to become tarantino i listen to tarantino's podcast he does

SPEAKER_45: a have you heard the video archives podcast yet you have to get on this it's him and he is the co-writer of um who did you write pulp fiction with roger avery roger him and roger avery is my favorite podcast

SPEAKER_262: right now they just talk about films their knowledge of films is so unbelievable and the detail uh in

SPEAKER_289: which they talk about that is so crisp they finish each other's sentences in the way with maybe you listen to this podcast you know we all go oh john door oh no he worked at intel oh this person yeah maritz he was a journalist we have a deep deep understanding of this business that comes from 30 years within it or 20 years and i think you have to i know it sounds corny but you have to pay your dues you have to put 60 70 hours in a week to get that elite job and the problem today i feel is and for people who are listening who are young people coming out of schools if you're not willing to

SPEAKER_318: sacrifice 60 70 80 hours a week for a decade or two you're just not going to be successful in that by

SPEAKER_111: the way and young people push back on this and i think the simplest way to reframe it is in the

SPEAKER_122: following do you really think for example let's pick nba basketball do you think you would be really interested or find credible that the best player in the nba only practiced three hours a week does that happen impossible do you think they're practicing three hours in the morning and then also three hours in the afternoon and they give up their lives the most incredible thing that i saw in the nba was all of these men literally gave up their life to play that game to perfect it and that's true for anything and so i don't understand how whether if you're a filmmaker whether you want to be an investor whether you want to be an athlete whether you want to be an actor a surgeon it's just like it's an immutable law of physics so just get over it which is you need to put in tens of thousands of hours and if you cannot or won't you should not expect the success and you should not complain

SPEAKER_148: and and also because it's not free yeah these these guys do you agree with that or not yeah look i mean lebron 20 what was it 2016 when they came back and won in game seven 2016 yeah i don't want to i don't know scar tissue yeah right but um the next day they were you know his teammates go out and celebrate you know what lebron did on instagram the next day posted a photo at 7 a.m of him brawn was working out yeah working out um but look one thing i'll say lebron knows what his skill is and he knows what his game is i think every individual needs to figure out what their skill is and what their game is and not to find glory in what others have found to be their skill and their game that there is something that comes from mastering any craft that gives an individual joy and purpose in life and you see this in basketball you see it when these athletes really find what they love and they do it and they commit to it and there are things that we each have realized we are good at and there are things that we've all certainly realized we are not good at and identifying that mastering one's craft is the key to any person being successful and happy i believe i just just versus just assuming that there's a thing out there that everyone makes money

SPEAKER_111: at distraction alert all of our wives are about to go swimming oh my lord they're so hot

SPEAKER_325: good lord yeah my good lord look at my wife jesus god almighty i hit the jackpot it's beauty and the

SPEAKER_331: beast huh you can relate huh the way i look at it we were joking at breakfast today we were like my wife must have low self-esteem because she's married to me sac said the best line he's like if

Chamath Palihapitiya: you google not that he don't pay you find this picture of her holding a tiger a lion by the lion by the

David Sacks: tail which is a lot more exciting than holding a sri lankan by the schlong hey oh hey oh i was

SPEAKER_337: playing ed mcmahon for sacks when he did the roast last night i was just like laughing guy every time

SPEAKER_342: he hit it i just went back to the table you didn't get uh help me off the cliff now i was waiting for that more help me help me off the cliff oh my god i think he knows how you know what happened cat

SPEAKER_122: told me what happened so the back story is phil ham youth is a narcissist and no no if you know phil ham youth you know that yeah that's implied and he just cannot give a speech he's your best

SPEAKER_346: friend we all he's not my best friend uh but he's he he gives horrible speeches he you and he are

SPEAKER_347: best friends like every every speech no phil every speech he gives at every event it's all about himself

SPEAKER_349: it's all about himself that's why we say seven seconds to phil but it's incredible because it could be it could be a wedding a bar mitzvah a funeral it doesn't matter but in our chat so when when

SPEAKER_347: jamas said okay phil's going to give a speech phil's like of course i'm going to give a speech

SPEAKER_354: every speech i give is amazing i tell it every time 70 million dollars then he goes the last event

SPEAKER_347: i gave a speech it brought the house down everyone was laughing i killed it it was doyle brunson's

SPEAKER_357: funeral oh my god no dude what what you killed it at a funeral so i asked i asked how much to do to do

Chamath Palihapitiya: this toast and i was like okay well we'll do four of them but i thought if we start with helm youth

SPEAKER_111: it'll just be so bad yeah you bought him out early yeah you bought him out early and then the rest of

SPEAKER_366: you guys set the bar yeah it was the right sequence but sax crushed it sax just nailed it sax crushed it

SPEAKER_369: i think we're all still amazed that made up the stairs you know it was it was a hike it was 400 steps to

SPEAKER_372: that uh yeah um it looks good he wasn't even out of breath it was pretty impressive yeah well this

SPEAKER_374: has been a great episode of the all-in pod did anybody see oppenheimer yet i'm so excited how do

SPEAKER_375: we see it it's it's going to be a barbenheimer double feature in honor of the barbenheimer wedding yeah i'm

SPEAKER_73: not i'm not barbenheimering it that's a great one the barber never seen an imax i think nolan had a nolan's like so about 70 millimeter prints he's like you have to watch it and you know the metronon metron in the city is it so we should just rent the theater and invite some fans or just go yeah

SPEAKER_314: i mean we should do that no we should just let's rent it this week i've rented it it's i think it's

SPEAKER_26: sold out until like a very limited time oh the theater is we just have to call them and say hey

SPEAKER_148: can we rent the thing they'll do a show here's 20 dimes i once went to a showing of um interstellar there and christopher nolan came and spoke and got to meet him and speak to him afterwards he's a very soft-spoken guy and he's not very sociable he doesn't you know sort of like sax he doesn't

SPEAKER_84: want to make eye contact and actually talk with you but you know we challenged are you making fun of people with asperger's but he was great i mean hello pot it's kettle calling

SPEAKER_150: i will say um he's he's what top three filmmakers of our time top four there was a very for me it's

SPEAKER_24: ridley scott tarantino nolan there's a very funny where's your list sacks right now you gotta put

SPEAKER_142: scorsese on that list oh right of course pt anderson no no pt and dennis villain wave hit or miss

SPEAKER_391: woody allen can we mention that name i mean can't say that please it's hard to watch that it's hard

Chamath Palihapitiya: to watch the whole i like uh makes it too hard i like uh no nick nick believe those up there's a very

SPEAKER_122: funny moment on the the first the first dinner yeah you know we did this great thing you nick

Chamath Palihapitiya: beep out the names when sat down everybody's like and i was waiting for david to sit yeah and he just keep talking and talking yeah talking and talking and finally nat went to like sit the down right now

SPEAKER_398: and had to get this thing going so who do you got you got scorsese of course yeah i mean you're talking about like currently alive filmmakers i think active filmmakers yeah unless you mentioned it's pretty

SPEAKER_118: good um i don't have to think about it for missing anybody yeah really scott's up there for you yeah

SPEAKER_131: yeah really scott yeah i mean he's still making christopher nolan is pretty excellent he's very

SPEAKER_122: productive too that's the thing about every two years michael bay versatility michael bay i don't know

SPEAKER_410: if really scott's my number one but um i met michael bay in costa rica can you yeah that's the

SPEAKER_416: beginning of the end of the story that's all i got can you did you ask for the thirty dollars back for transformers no i mean like i didn't particularly know who he was i cannot watch any of his films i

SPEAKER_418: cannot watch any of those yeah he's like a very nice guy yeah i'm sure he's great um so uh also on

SPEAKER_110: the doc he's got napoleon coming out the trailer looks amazing amazing well anything with joaquin

SPEAKER_419: michael bay is making no no no uh ridley scott oh ridley scott joaquin phoenix playing napoleon

SPEAKER_288: it's kind of interesting i hate to go deep into the um do you guys want to talk about zert bad behavior or you want to talk about the resolution of this hollywood stuff and what it means writ large

SPEAKER_41: well the hollywood stuff i think it's fascinating i tweeted about this a couple weeks ago my observations

SPEAKER_122: on this were twofold one is that it's going to have the exact opposite effect that they want if what they want if what the writers and the actors guild want is to show the owners of the studios how valuable they are the problem is that this moves the owners and the studios one step closer into the hands of tools that will disintermediate the actors and the writers they'll embrace that technology they'll embrace the ai tools that you guys have talked about you were showing something around even like yesterday or whatever so like the point is like i don't see it as very effective and then my second thought is like i just think unions in general are probably not a very effective way to get these concessions anymore versus the tax that the union members pay and you can just see that in terms of like the number of people in unions are just kind of decaying pretty quickly the wage gains are pretty de minimis it's just not an effective mechanism of negotiation sacks the unions

SPEAKER_289: are a way for average performers to fight to get a little bit more but right it's the antithesis

SPEAKER_26: of having a meritocracy and people fighting for their best possible pay and so the conundrum i have is i'm seeing all these marvel actors superhero actors getting dropped off at the protests and they're complaining about bob eiger making 25 million when tom cruise or you know robert downey jr pick the person i'm not singling anybody out but those people who got to the top of the heap after 20 30 40 years in the business are getting paid 50 million a picture a hundred million a picture of back ends and and so what's your take on what's going on here because there it seems i don't want to say hypocritical but it feels like they're talking out of both sides of their mouth they want to have an

SPEAKER_289: auction to the highest bidder for these incredibly talented writers directors producers as it should be but then they also want to fight for the average right it's confusing to me some of the union

SPEAKER_369: demands i think are reasonable and i understand why they want them so for example i think they're

SPEAKER_125: arguing for more residuals for like you said the kind of lower level performers so that they can get

SPEAKER_95: healthcare the average ones yeah so i i can understand that at the same time they're demanding that writers rooms not use ai software which they're already doing yeah which it's just crazy because ai is

SPEAKER_110: going to be incorporated into all software so to not be able to use the latest features of whatever word or google docs or whatever screenwriting software yes that's like the king who ordered the tides to stop you know yeah march of technology it's not going to work so i think that's like really off

SPEAKER_95: base so i can sympathize with some of the demands other ones i think are hard to see in terms of your point about the economics i mean look the the basic problem about with hollywood is it's a winner take all business i mean you've got a few actors who become big stars this is true actually with all the creative industries is there power law businesses you know jk rowling makes a billion dollars as an author the 10 000 author or whatever yeah that makes a thousand fantasy person makes a living yeah exactly yeah can't even make a living and the reason for that by the way is because there's a lot of people willing to do it for free humans are fundamentally creative there's a lot of people willing to be actors for free or sure or writers or write or whatever creatively because they're willing to do their art for free podcasters right and so the reality is the reason hollywood doesn't have to pay these sort of the entry-level actors very much is there's a lot of people willing to do that job

SPEAKER_293: there's too many people a lot of people and it doesn't need to be in a structured production system

SPEAKER_253: anymore anymore if you guys saw the latest uh disney earnings release and eiger said we are going to

SPEAKER_148: consider selling nat geo and a bunch of other channels there may actually be a spin-off because content creation for that mid-tier or that tail no longer makes that viable profitable because there's so much content being generated by this very long tail that's accruing a lot of the eyeballs and a lot of the hours of consumers mindset and time i think that there's a big well just just can i connect that

SPEAKER_369: idea so we were talking earlier about career choices so first of all it's it's i agree with what you

SPEAKER_95: guys said about the time commitment you have to make but it's not really about time per se it's about your obsession level can you be obsessed with something so that 60 70 hours a week feels like nothing to you because you're so immersed you're so obsessed with it right the way that tarantino and avery are obsessed with classic films have the whole database in their head so if you want to pursue one of these careers in a winner take all space like writing like acting or whatever you better just be completely obsessed you gotta be all in yeah you gotta be all in i'd say furthermore

SPEAKER_314: and be unique like what makes you novel yeah i mean even if you are all in you still have to have

SPEAKER_95: luck and scale and yeah and furthermore you have to know where the bar is so i think a lot of people this is one of the things i noticed when i was producing a movie is a lot of people look at like the worst actor or the worst screenwriter and say i'm better than that person so i'm gonna make it but your bar is not the worst person who's made it your bar is the best person who hasn't made it that's the person you're really competing next up it's the next up it's the person you're going on auditions and you're competing against someone hasn't made it yet but they're amazing and you don't necessarily know where that bar is because it's much harder to see yeah but that's where the bar really

SPEAKER_148: is right i look i think there's also a big disruption that's really well said yeah totally and as we extend

SPEAKER_253: the long tail of consumer content creation into what is effectively now the infinite tail of ai

SPEAKER_148: generation ai generated content creation it is going to totally disrupt and change the game of media of content generally speaking we're getting to a point now where you can effectively tie together rendering engines with scripting with scene definition with directorial lines all the stuff that it goes into pre-production and production um can be generated uh through through ai through scripting and then tuned and tweaked by a human but ultimately it increases the scale like all technologies do it increases leverage for humans and we could see a hundred times more films come out each of which costs one one hundredth the cost you know one of the best production companies in la is blumhouse you know they make horror films for two million dollars they make them for two million bucks

SPEAKER_253: and they make a bunch of them because they cost so little to make and if any one of them hits they make 180 million bucks or 200 million bucks at the box office it's a fantastic business genre films it's

SPEAKER_148: very much a unique model in hollywood and it's really changed the game quite a bit and i think we're going to see something similar emerge because of generative ai and the tooling and then people start to question what is it called what is it about uh but um i look one thing one thing i do want to say i do think that there's also a change in hollywood that's going to be driven as we talked about before by the ability to generate personalized film personalized content um rather than one piece of content for everyone where you have to make blockbusters and everyone watches it there is a question however of culture and culture is you know shared experience stories and beliefs shared experience stories and beliefs can still be realized through personalized media through personalized um content generation think about you know an old narrative an old tale that was told you know via uh people speaking to each other around a campfire the the ethics and the morals of the story are still there but everyone tells it a little bit differently i think that's what we may end up seeing hollywood production or ai generated production which is everyone tweaks their content in their own personal way they consume it in their own way but the hollywood studios how much of a role do they ultimately end up playing and does this start to go 10 times more what we've seen in youtube content consumption

SPEAKER_73: goes way up and the number of folks that are contributing to it goes way up by 10 or 100x i think

SPEAKER_33: this is one of the fundamental things that the unions and hollywood have not yet grokked completely which

SPEAKER_26: is they're not fighting each other they're fighting tick tock youtube podcasts and people making their own content that's they're fighting you know they're they're fighting jimmy donaldson they're

SPEAKER_397: fighting mr b they're fighting mr they're fighting each other over the last scraps exactly and i think

SPEAKER_103: they need to get insane the people that spend two hours a week listening to us rant on about stuff

SPEAKER_33: right like they're fighting well that's two less hours that's what i'm saying it's two less hours of broadcast tv and then mr beast these kids watch his videos five times they watch

SPEAKER_122: he's probably the only person in recent memory that has rebuilt uh event-based viewership because people know saturday mornings at noon eastern time is when these videos drop hundreds of millions of people it's appointment television it's appointment television now back by the way when you hear you know the story about mr beast that's a guy that's been doing it since he was 13 years old studying he's 24 years old so that's 11 years where he's literally only lived and breathed high everything and in the laboratory high energy iteration in the lab down to the very pixel right like when he for example

SPEAKER_477: like the cuts remember you watch his cuts on his videos remember he told us about like thumbnails he has an entire phd thesis that he's earned just on thumbnails yeah right and that's a level of

SPEAKER_478: commitment i think what hollywood needs to do just to to put it out there is the the leadership

SPEAKER_26: in hollywood gets compensated on a corporate level and then they come up with this you know pay and sometimes residual sometimes not and scraps for the talent i would encourage them to read something like an autobiography by kurosawa and study the toho system where everybody was aligned inside the company if i'm running disney i'm hiring the top two or three hundred writers putting them

SPEAKER_45: full-time on staff giving them equity and getting everybody rowing in the right direction they do not have time to around they need to be in alignment making great content but the incentive

SPEAKER_26: structure matters if bob eiger is getting compensated by stock options the actors robert downey jr who's the guy the incredible director of swingers and favreau i was talking to favreau at an

SPEAKER_481: event and i was like how much like equity in disney did you get for doing mandalorian and like launching disney plus for them and he's like zero zero by the way i'm like why do you know if you look

SPEAKER_122: at back up a hundred million if you know but if you look and this is what's crazy if you look at the biggest content producers of that older generation they locked up the equity you know spielberg owns equity in the movies that he made george lucas owns equity in the movie he owned part of the studios

SPEAKER_148: the deal christopher nolan cut on um on oppenheimer no i think he gets uh 20 of the growth off the

SPEAKER_295: first dollar that's absurd yeah and he got a hundred million dollar budget and a hundred million

SPEAKER_259: marketing commit uh on the on the deal uh joker was uh todd phillips well this is a perfect

SPEAKER_125: example i was talking to todd phillips actually um i got to have dinner with him last summer great guy yeah yeah great guy and he waived his fee on joker to take a big chunk of the equity because

SPEAKER_467: he did that on the hangover and he owned the ip of the hangover he owned the sequels and hangover one and two amazing hangover three you can miss it yeah but he made more i think on

SPEAKER_26: hangover three yeah and he got all those guys galifianakis etc they got their biggest payday on number

SPEAKER_498: three right you have to craft a deal we have equity the other crazy you know the studio was

David Sacks: less bullish than he was on both hangover and joker because they're which shows you how unusual movies

SPEAKER_499: so they allowed him to take equity in exchange for giving back they're like you only want to spend

SPEAKER_502: 50 million on a superhero film that's never going to work and then he's like yeah it made a billion

SPEAKER_504: joker made a billion right they thought it was too dark underestimating audiences as always in i'll tell you a very funny poker story phillips down here your disney stock

SPEAKER_26: uh right now i'm going to ride it out i think their ip collection is amazing i think there's

SPEAKER_33: a chance that you know depending on how uh the ftc winds up being run over the long term that disney could be um selling pieces of that business and i think that it could become an acquisition target

SPEAKER_506: itself at some point you want to hear a todd phillips poker story i play a park with him yeah he's

SPEAKER_122: uh he's todd phillips is a very very disciplined poker player you know he's got like a stop loss he hits the stop loss he's done and he's very funny and jokes around you know bust balls whatever and there was a while where he would play in the big game in l.a with us and he didn't say much he was very focused and tight as right and then he did this deal and then hangover three comes out and all

SPEAKER_43: of a sudden you know he's got chirping chips he's splashing the pot i bust phillips in a pot and he looks at me and he called me slum dog billionaire after the guys at the table thought it was so

Chamath Palihapitiya: funny because that movie slum dog millionaire had just come out so then they all started calling me

SPEAKER_333: slummy that's gonna stick it took me a year for them to get stop calling me that yeah yeah pretty

SPEAKER_125: great on the union thing i'll tell you a story so recently it was just announced that anchor steam shut down anchor steam was this beer this native beer in san francisco that's been around forever japanese brewery bought them right it was bought by sapporo several years ago yeah anchor steam shut

SPEAKER_148: down the interesting you're kidding me yeah i used to go there all the time for like work events you do like an off-site there and go to the brewery it's yeah it was like one of the original

SPEAKER_278: award-winning beer iconic well it's out of business now and the reason is what was losing money and you

SPEAKER_125: want to know why is because three years ago the workers all voted to unionize there were only

SPEAKER_95: something like 60 workers 62 workers and three years ago they vote to unionize and they voted themselves big pay increases yeah and so i guess the poor had to go along with it three years later

SPEAKER_517: it supports like yeah shut the whole thing down um and that and that's and that's the thing is you

SPEAKER_122: got to be careful what you wish for this overplay i really think the thing with unions that they get wrong is unions fight for exactly this which is this short-term increase in current compensation and i think what unions do very poorly is actually understanding the long-term equity that the employees and members of that union actually create i tweeted this a few weeks ago as well but the single biggest reason that motivated me when i sold my piece of the warriors was obviously just the crazy increase in the valuation right i bought it for you know 300 600 300 and it was worth 5.2 billion at the time whatever but the second biggest reason was my huge fear was that i as an owner i just wanted to cash in the chips because i think the most right thing to do for the union like the nba players association is to fight for equity yeah if like michael jordan single-handedly has created 15 billion dollars of equity in the nba yep how much has he captured one or two billion but not from the league he captured it accidentally from shoes right how much money is lebron james actually created for the nba it's enormous yep how much is he he made they're not trying to get the

SPEAKER_196: right piece they're not trying to get the right but also when the business doesn't do well then the the labor contracts become a source of huge inflexibility huge inflexibility and you can't

SPEAKER_302: make the necessary business changes it's your point the business gets shut down so to your point

SPEAKER_122: like when you when what happens now is there's these huge luxury taxes in professional sports and so folks bloat the payroll they try to get all these players but if you don't win and get to the playoffs you're not selling more merch you're not getting incremental share of tv revenues you're not getting ticket revenues and all of a sudden you have these massive luxury taxes you have to pay and not enough revenue to pay for it and so these teams all of a sudden now start to gush money have to make capital calls because these things that sound incredible up front start to become real weights on these businesses the real thing all unions in all industries i would i would tell you all to do is

SPEAKER_111: figure out how to get the equity upside in the business in which your members are working in

SPEAKER_95: and are creating value right and in exchange for that have more forgiveness on the downside so the

SPEAKER_527: business can actually persevere whether the storm is supposed to have to shut down exactly alignment you

SPEAKER_33: know alignment align the incentives are just so critical i was talking to the head of one of the giant publishers i wouldn't say which one ibnis biz insider i don't know which one it was but um they were being unionized and i said wow is this a disaster for your business he said oh jacal

SPEAKER_26: greatest thing ever i said why he's like now when people come to us and they want to get paid more

SPEAKER_45: we just take out the chart how many years have you been here oh five okay yeah one two three four five seventy two thousand and they said well no but i bring more pages or whatever it's like yeah okay yeah page view multiplier 0.15 okay so you're 78k and then just basically that's what happens at

SPEAKER_533: business insider yeah but that's kind of who knows that's probably why they're uh a clickbait business

SPEAKER_26: and then that drives perverse incentives and it's like why not align it with what is the profitability of the business what is the growth of the business a bonus pool a base level of pay and if

SPEAKER_289: the unions are coming in they are literally rearranging the chairs on the titanic and it's

SPEAKER_125: that simple you you if you both the beer industry and hollywood are both shrinking industries and so when you got unions demanding more more more of a shrinking pie something's going to break now look

SPEAKER_95: just to be clear i'm in favor of unions demanding things like better working conditions and healthcare and just like the basics yeah but you know when they try to go for things like i don't know banning ai

SPEAKER_110: and um and proposals that distort the cost structure of the business to the point where it's just not

SPEAKER_426: feasible it's not profitable that doesn't work also the question is white collar workers who can move so

SPEAKER_26: freely between jobs yeah so elite why would any white collar worker who is learning and sharpening their blade and increasing their value year after year why would they even want to join a union there was a podcast union that started in spotify and gimlet media all of this stuff and one of the podcasts i think it was reply all they didn't want to join the union because they're like well we're over

SPEAKER_546: compensated we're a hit show and then they were all claimed that they were look at what's happening in

SPEAKER_110: the schools but can we steal man you can't get rid of a bad teacher because they're in the union so

SPEAKER_547: it's like a huge procedure so they put them in a building right where the incompetent teachers can we

SPEAKER_122: actually steal man the pro case of joining a union in 2023 i mean if you could get how do you steal

SPEAKER_349: benefits like some basic level of benefits look i i think that the pitch and jacal this is why i

SPEAKER_253: asked you this a few episodes ago you know tell us your experience having grown up in a family that i think unions are pretty proliferant in these um cops firemen cops firemen yeah i mean if you were the pitch is you're you're part of a membership you have a voice and that voice always is your advocate and that that advocate looks out for benefits comp time off whether or not and how you get fired all the things that you feel you may be unfairly treated by management there's nothing novel here i don't know it's it's a strong appealing point yeah so i don't know if that's

SPEAKER_556: the best steel man for it because because look employee it's a competitive labor market if you have skills that companies want so you should be able to negotiate for a lot of these things yourself

SPEAKER_95: i think the steel man case for unions and the reason why they formed in the first place is because american industry was basically owned by an oligopoly they were themselves monopolies so if you have a monopoly of industries like u.s steel or standard oil then there's not a competitive labor market they just set the prices they set the conditions that's why the unions got started is you needed a basically a monopoly of labor to face off against a monopoly of business that's how i got started and i think in those conditions we're talking about

SPEAKER_559: the early 1900s people were losing limbs in factories yeah of course it was very different

SPEAKER_283: working conditions different working conditions but now you're talking about much more competitive

SPEAKER_73: industries but look yeah there was a great deal of like manual labor needed to get productivity out

SPEAKER_253: of businesses and enterprise so you know so much of industry changed where things became automated where there became specialization and differentiation amongst the workforce and it wasn't everyone is just using their arms to do things and you know this is obviously now measurable and the idea that you can basically you know capture management or do a hostile takeover of the corporation or the equity i think is effectively what's happened with a lot of these these uh these and i'll be honest knowing what i know

SPEAKER_33: about unions if you were to do a deep dive into you know the police unions or the firefighter unions or the sanitation unions or the teacher unions and you look at their pensions and their overtime you would see some pretty significant abuse that the unions have built up over years to where people can make three or four hundred thousand dollars a year in the last two or three years they goose that up because then they base their pension on the average of the last three years and what basically happens is all the senior guys say listen all overtime goes to these three guys who are retiring in three years

SPEAKER_26: and none of the junior guys can take any overtime and when it's your turn right you get that all that

SPEAKER_73: and then we're going to goose your pay so and what what that does unreasonably yeah is the pension

SPEAKER_253: calculation the pay into the pension is based on some assumption of today as that starts to happen the pensions become underfunded because they no longer have enough capital to make all the disbursements that are supposed to happen and there's a big argument now that there's probably over a trillion dollars of underfunded pension liabilities in the united states many of which are based on the fact that

SPEAKER_73: these payout principles were defined by some negotiation with a union and they're games and

SPEAKER_26: there's a large difference between somebody writing a listicle or rewriting a washington post story business a listicle listicle listicle yeah somebody rewriting a listicle in buzzfeed or

SPEAKER_467: you know somebody rewriting a wall street journal paywall story in business insider

SPEAKER_26: somebody running into a running into a burning building or you know right um having a target on their back as a cop in san francisco these are very different jobs and the white collar knowledge workers are lasting what what's the average tenure right now 36 months 30 months

SPEAKER_289: i mean you're obviously moving from place to place what's the point of the union it's a competitive

SPEAKER_95: labor market and to your point it's true that in some cases the unions do get a better deal for

SPEAKER_125: their members however there is a deadweight loss for the union itself because the union's representing

SPEAKER_577: its own interests one and a half percent so they're taking something they got a skim they're

SPEAKER_95: skimming they gotta pay that scorsese movie was it the irishman yeah you really get a taste of the

SPEAKER_579: corruption that was there was some skimming going on yeah everybody gets a little skim all of a sudden

SPEAKER_125: one and a half times but then also the pension fund starts getting you know rolled into mob projects or whatever i mean that's like a while ago but yeah i there were some significant downsides my view of

SPEAKER_33: it is we lived in a decade of surplus elites you know having these luxury jobs and i'll put in the

SPEAKER_26: luxury jobs being a journalist being a venture capitalist you know these elitist luxury jobs and in some of them they became so wildly overcompensated i think they wanted to feel oppressed they wanted to feel like they needed representation and i think they were larping to use the term again live action role-playing that they were going to be in a union like they

SPEAKER_278: wanted they're larping as being victims right they wanted to like literally the business insider

SPEAKER_26: people were putting up pictures of henry belaget and his they were larping grievances yes and

SPEAKER_289: they're on the street holding a picket sign up and i'm like what's the matter is your keyboard not ergonomic enough at home you haven't been to an office in three years they didn't get the latest

SPEAKER_95: flavor of kind bars or whatever yeah no they didn't get the cherry the cranberry

SPEAKER_289: qu qu kind bars i mean like leave the unions for the people who are actually on the front lines it's

SPEAKER_73: all right so uh i think well we could wrap good wrap should we wrap it's probably wrap time would you

SPEAKER_150: want to do a quick science corner update i got a lot of actually room temp superconductor yeah there

SPEAKER_590: is a uh actually it's a very uh interesting uh you may remember a few episodes ago if you if you don't

SPEAKER_121: remember you kind of can go back and watch it um where i talked a little bit about the effort to try

SPEAKER_253: and identify a material that can be superconducting at room temperature which means no resistance electrons can flow through the material with no resistance perfect um electricity transfer across distance and also enables the meisner effect where magnetic waves can reflect off of the material which can allow things like levitating trains which is very low friction transportation all these benefits of superconducting materials of quantum computing etc so yesterday and i've gotten literally dozens of

SPEAKER_148: emails and notes about this in the last 12 hours there was a paper published by a team in south korea who seemed like a very legit team there's no reason why they would kind of make a fraudulent claim that there is a material that they've identified and measured to show has superconducting properties

SPEAKER_253: at room temperature and ambient pressure where a lot of these efforts historically have been made at room temperature but they use 200 times atmospheric pressure to compress it and it turns out that this material that they're using is a lead appetite which is a uh it's a hexagonal crystal that uses calcium phosphate and lead and that some of the calcium the lead gets replaced with copper and the copper causes the hexagon the crystal structure to compress a little bit that compressed crystal allows

SPEAKER_148: the electrons to flow through this is their theoretical explanation on what's going on it will be replicated people will try and do what they are now claiming they did to demonstrate this there was some condensed matter physics people that sent me an email and said they don't think that this is real they have great deal of skepticism let me but sorry let me just say two things about this um you can read the paper you can read the paper it's on the internet yeah the camera men are

SPEAKER_293: that's put his glasses on he's sleeping behind here he's just horse sleeping let me take let me say two things firstly i think it's unlikely that these guys are going to make a fraudulent

SPEAKER_148: if they did make a fraudulent claim it would be the end of their careers their reputation would be damaged so that may happen if they did not make a fraudulent like the president of stanford if they did not make a fraudulent claim and it is and it does turn out to be real then i do think it'll end up being the the most important discovery in physics of this century okay so it's either a complete

SPEAKER_73: utter fraud no no no or it changes the universe look i i know you guys i know you guys are joking about it but yeah we talked about the importance of this material in technology yes it's an everyday

SPEAKER_41: life energy i want to build on top of what you're saying the thing that you're saying the more

SPEAKER_122: generalized concept is we have such a poor understanding of the periodic table just broadly

SPEAKER_148: speaking of condensed matter of physics there's so much about physics and quantum mechanics and just that are still we are just literally poking around poking around trying to figure out what's

SPEAKER_293: going on and that's what led to this discovery supposed discovery i've made this analogy before but

SPEAKER_122: if you take the periodic table and it actually kind of looks like the united states of america we have like a really good sense of like the upper northwest and like the east coast and otherwise we don't know anything and i think it was about two and a half years ago at the beginning of the pandemic there were these three guys and i that started with this idea of just building some machine learning to experiment in silica around different materials right and can you guess physical properties and if you think these properties are better at a certain thing can we then go and actually make samples and figure it out and we pointed it at batteries and we said let's just take the cheapest form of batteries lfp lithium right that's used in the model three and let's make better lfp and what we're finding is holy shit like we don't know anything and there are these like really big breakthroughs one which we'll probably announce in like the next few weeks because we just raised a bunch of money around this idea but it's all just people experimenting better and smarter and really what you find is that there just aren't enough of those people doing it and so the cycle time is just

SPEAKER_288: too long well and this is where ai can actually have some it's incredible gain transformational

SPEAKER_33: as ai gets smarter transformation you put in the inputs you give it the data set we don't know what

SPEAKER_607: it's going to come up with and it could profoundly the the better version of part of increase our

SPEAKER_148: understanding part of what this this korean team did is they they had a separate paper that they published talking about the demonstration of using ai to try and be predictive around quantum mechanics which is something that people have said we can't really do quantum modeling until we get quantum computers and so there has been this belief that once we get quantum computers we'll be able to understand the physics of of the quantum scale and be able to do modeling that will allow us to do more discovery but we are still very much just poking around and theorizing and every cycle by the way in superconductor research there's a different theory on what causes superconductivity and it shows so

SPEAKER_122: how little we do actually yeah yeah so these guys basically when we were trying to build so if you if you look at like a tesla model s right or model x these are nmc or nca batteries right very very very energy rich but also very expensive and very complicated batteries that won't scale to the average everyday car and what was crazy in our attempt to take lfp which is the cheap version and make it as keep the cheapness but as energy dense as nmc and nca we ended up doping it with all kinds of random stuff that you would have never guessed in a million years given billions of dollars you would you needed computers to go off and actually make these guesses so this idea that we're going to find all this stuff at the periodic table bumbling around i think is such an interesting

SPEAKER_148: part of the physical sciences and again this will lead to infinite energy storage in batteries yeah you can put electricity into a battery if you had a superconducting battery and it would cycle forever no resistance and then you could just plug in and get the energy back out so imagine infinite storage on batteries you have to reinvent circuitry completely so you can there are already superconducting um circuits that are used in quantum computers and other high-end applications but because they're so expensive to cool and so expensive to operate they're not ubiquitous but the power of having them be ubiquitous would be extraordinary for computing for discovery for ai for modeling the applications of what we'll end up discovering because of the modeling we can now do in a more ubiquitous way is going to be incredible these are very profound moments when they do and if they do happen we should be excited optimistic but obviously very very cautious about uh where and

SPEAKER_122: when this may happen yeah i really love you what an incredible so thankful that you guys came

SPEAKER_537: and showed up it really means a lot to me thank you fantastic yeah incredible week i really love

SPEAKER_374: you guys thank you very very much for that all right we'll see everybody uh at the all in summit oh my

SPEAKER_140: gosh yum yum it's in like in this is like six weeks more a little more you have a new party planning

SPEAKER_148: going you have a new right you have a new person to announce i will announce it and then we'll take it out if it's not okay but we did confirm ray dalio so we'll add him to the speaker list we've got a few other guests that we're not going to announce that will be last minute fun surprises for everyone

SPEAKER_293: always some fun surprises at the end i'm really excited to have a great story yeah how the party's going

SPEAKER_456: for the summer the parties we uh we have narrowed down to three themes we think are going to be a lot

SPEAKER_26: of fun opening night uh sunday night the day before the event starts september 10th i think that is you have locations yet uh we are negotiating the final contracts with the locations we've got about a dozen of them and we're going to narrow it down to the three that give us um the best flexibility we'll have the floor plans uh which is the last step um you know you got like six weeks right yeah no

SPEAKER_419: no it's we have more than enough options now so uh sunday night jcal's handling the parties not me

SPEAKER_122: i'm doing the parties you want to hear a great all-in summit story yeah but let me just go

SPEAKER_26: through the three um yeah the three party themes so opening night is going to be bestie royale uh the best you love me a james bond theme so what is that tuxedos white tuxedos white tuxedos or you can go as a bond girl or you could go as austin powers anything in that theme casino games but no

SPEAKER_467: black tuxedo you can go black tuxedo you can go white tuxedo you could go daniel craig you could

SPEAKER_80: go sean connery roger moore you pick you go whatever you want i like the black tux i've tried the

SPEAKER_630: white tux it doesn't you can do it yeah you go it's not working for you for me i look like a

SPEAKER_166: waiter and so it'd be like i'd like the yacht club of san francisco and then uh monday night we have a gonna wear his uh his bucket hat monday night is gonna be bestie club uh breakfast club big 80s

SPEAKER_101: the location is incredible i wouldn't say it but um not to be confused with fight club where jake hell and i get in a ring no not a fight each other yeah that wouldn't last very long um best

SPEAKER_195: we worked everything out of the board meeting yeah did we work everything out between the two of

SPEAKER_122: you yeah everything's good board meeting's great you were embracing afterwards i saw the two of you

SPEAKER_73: embracing of course we had to give him a hug it was an awkward hug he didn't fully let me in oh it was like you ever see c3po trying to give han solo a hug it does like this like oh uh there's a 472 to

SPEAKER_637: one chance that you're my bestie oh um and then uh the last night it will be bestie runner a blade

SPEAKER_467: runner send up a cyberpunk theme wear your best cyberpunk oh you must have a good like punch-up

SPEAKER_111: person for this kind of stuff like you have a person that oh he's yeah he's got an art director

SPEAKER_641: he's got somebody in the costume department costume department in the in the most yeah that's no

SPEAKER_49: that's level two in the basement sub level two in the basement is the costumes you know how you

SPEAKER_478: haven't been to that level in your elevator yeah you go down level two is costumes yeah level three

SPEAKER_122: is sets okay i'll tell you a quick story all in summit i'm walking in the streets of milan me not and we're we're walking just on via monta napoleone in milan and i hear it and i turn around it's damien bertrand the ceo of lower piano and he and so he comes he's like we're so excited to be a

SPEAKER_43: part of the all-in summit and i'm like oh my god this is i didn't tell you this oh oh it's not

SPEAKER_632: happening no no it is i know they're cushioning every seat with uh i don't know i don't don't

SPEAKER_122: don't ruin it okay i'm not gonna run it but my team's been working really hard on it anyways i i saw damien they they're excited he's coming yes he is coming we'll see it well he's coming we'll see

SPEAKER_43: him partner yeah do we have um montclair we did we you had every opportunity these last three days to do everything you needed to get a sponsorship all right everyone from montclair is listening

SPEAKER_652: what are you guys right there on the beach he's on the beach you were just sitting next to him and the person do you see the yacht right there that's his boat this is his restaurant this is his restaurant i can't i can't i can't i can't you've been sitting

SPEAKER_217: next to him that's like three days i can't do enough i can't do any more than literally get

SPEAKER_655: on the dinghy go to his boat get off your phone he's sitting right there you need to pay attention

SPEAKER_659: yeah get playing oh my god we're not gonna go walk you stop playing chess and you'll be like oh yeah i

SPEAKER_288: know you know the funny beep it out we'll bleep it out here's what happens the guy uh freebro comes

SPEAKER_289: up he's in a panic oh we've got a problem jacal uh the production has got a problem they're gonna kick us out of the restaurant the guy goes i don't think it's gonna be a problem i'm gonna fix it and

SPEAKER_665: freeberg's like how are you gonna fix it he's like well i own the restaurant and uh so i'll ask them we bought it to um not to kick you out and sorry not gonna be a problem not gonna be a problem and

SPEAKER_122: he sat beside for a whole day right who is on the board and i said david she's on the board so if you

SPEAKER_191: this is your moment you sold out their hats and this is david cut to david bleep out the name hold

SPEAKER_74: on oh oh i hold on a lot of stuff peter tiel and i are in level four of my basement i'm in a game of blitz with peter tiel hold on blitz okay playing blitz chess my rating is i've got a terrible hangover

SPEAKER_166: let's get out of here all right everybody live from portofino four hungover thank you guys thank you everybody thank you we will see you next time on the all the podcast thank you guys

SPEAKER_688: we'll let your winners run rain man david sacks have been sourced it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it love you guys queen of