SPEAKER_00: okay everybody it is a big big tuesday we're climbing up the mountain this is the steepest part of the week it's a big financial news show for you today just tons of data and tons of lessons

SPEAKER_02: molly yeah it is uh it's a mini mba in a podcast box is what it is first up we have crypto expert

SPEAKER_05: bennett tomlin to break down what in the holy blazes is going on with terra and ust and luna

SPEAKER_00: this whole thing and they missed the peg something's going on ben is just an amazing expert um and we talk about these stable coins specifically algorithmic ones and maybe this is the end

SPEAKER_09: of it and maybe regulation needs to come and tighten this up yeah and then we're gonna do uh if you've

SPEAKER_05: been watching moon night we're gonna be like ahmet we're gonna weigh the the hearts weigh the souls of some tech companies right now a deep dive on five stocks that are down at least 70 off of their mid

SPEAKER_13: covet peaks yeah and we're gonna talk about how much cash they have in the bank and what their revenue is and you know as i said yesterday we're bouncing along the bottom here i believe in terms of the crash so let's look at some facts and let's weigh coinbase shopify twilio zoom and block formerly

SPEAKER_09: known as square and then we may get slightly derailed by some breaking news that elon is potentially letting trump back on the platform so i'm just gonna warn you now spoiler alert

SPEAKER_19: minor derailing ma i had to i had to pull molly back she ran right to the edge this is a pretty

SPEAKER_20: minor losing it by my standards but fair enough but you went right to the edge he did put one foot

SPEAKER_21: over the edge i went right to the edge but i'm always professional i always bring back molly

SPEAKER_23: don't jump uh and finally we wrap with some peloton earnings which are ouch really grim

SPEAKER_29: ouch it's gonna be a great show stick with us this week in startups is brought to you by indochino indochino makes custom fitted suits shirts and casual wear at affordable prices shop for your next best look or book a virtual style consultation at indochino.com right now you can get fifty dollars off any purchase of 3.99 or more by using code twist at checkout vanta compliance and security shouldn't be a deal breaker for startups to win new business vanta makes it easy for companies to get a sock to report fast twist listeners can get one thousand dollars off for a limited time at vanta dot com slash twist and assure assure is the leading provider of special purpose vehicles and fund administration with over 5 000 completed transactions and 2.5 billion dollars under administration twist listeners can get 20 off their first spv at assure dot co slash twist that's assure dot co slash twist

SPEAKER_33: hey everybody welcome to the tuesday show this is where we try to climb the mountain right molly

SPEAKER_09: we are climbing the mountain i actually said that to my kid this morning when i woke him up

SPEAKER_35: i was like turns out tuesday is the day you got to climb the mountain we can do this get your butt out

SPEAKER_22: it's really like it's the steepest pitch uh really it's the most hopeless time of the week especially on a week when every company is crashing this is oh my lord as i saw i saw keith or boy say like

SPEAKER_39: very june 2000 vibes and i got a little ptsd i remember that time it was just people saying like can it go any lower and i was like yeah it can zero a stock can go to zero that is the possibility

SPEAKER_43: i feel like if it's going to happen it's going to be in may it's going to be this month or next month

SPEAKER_39: like it is bonkers out there it's just never ending well they say you know sell in may and go away uh on the stock market and you know people like to take the summer off and not think about these

SPEAKER_13: things so you know there is some truth to people might say you know what this is going to be a disaster i'll just get out of this for now and yeah i'll i'll i'll think later there'd be some

Jason Calacanis: wisdom to that right now too like if you can do it just don't look at your portfolio just barbecue instead like let's just well i mean i think if you love the companies you're in and they're

SPEAKER_39: printing money and they're high margin businesses or have great and or have great management usually

SPEAKER_13: those things are aligned and they have products you love my general feeling is i like to hold things for a decade so yeah when i'm looking at robin hood or uber or other square in my portfolio things that are down i'm like still love these companies still love the management you know

SPEAKER_05: revenue growing uh i'm gonna stick with it no one should take my advice and this is not advice but after our conversation yesterday like i'd i'd buy more uber right now yeah i mean if they're

SPEAKER_39: if they're trading at 1.x times um their revenue that's pretty great considering we look at and are having conversations in our corporate slack as investors and saying you know this is trading at eight these this founder wants 80 times revenue right maybe we should offer them 30 times revenue right and then it's like over is that one point x and you're like huh how does this math work well there's a lot of growth that happens we're talking about companies making 10k a month 100k a year 300k a

SPEAKER_56: year you kind of give them a little credit you can't have the company be worth you know 1.x it'd be a 200 000 company enterprise value you give them a little bit of credit hey 30 times 300 000 you know make it a 10 million dollar evaluation the founders don't get wiped out there's like a practical reason for that right right um but anyway it's different but uh it's not that different because every company

SPEAKER_39: eventually gets valued on free cash flow profits um and as they say the markets are a voting mechanism

SPEAKER_61: and then eventually a weighing mechanism i don't know who exactly said that quote but it always stuck

SPEAKER_63: with me i know i heard it first from bill gurley and he quoted somebody else but you know you just want

SPEAKER_13: to know like what does this business actually do in the world and what value does it provide to their customers and then what is the profit and the valuation of these companies is somehow trying to look at future profits of the company and say the future profits of this company is why this valuation exists if you own this business yourself you wouldn't sell it for this dollar amount because the revenue coming in in the future would be greater in some way you know maybe the next 20 years or 10 years or 30 years of revenue would be greater than the price somebody's offering it for you for today and then you'd still own the business after you collected those revenues the next 20 years and that's how valuations somehow in a market occur uh but i think our first story exactly speaking

SPEAKER_16: of trying to determine the long-term value of something in the world and this something within

SPEAKER_68: the crypto space would be something that provides no intrinsic value exactly so far but i mean stable coins

SPEAKER_39: i guess do have some value in that they provide a tool for people to move money around um without shipping dollars and paying wire fees theoretically so we're talking today about um a project called

SPEAKER_71: luna now we had the founder of luna on the pod uh it's a stable coin it's referred to as ust uh terra is what it is now that is not usdt molly right which is tether that's another staple coin that's had

SPEAKER_07: well tons of issues and legal um sanctions around them that's a different project right we should

SPEAKER_05: actually say terraform labs is the maker of two coins effectively one is called luna and the other is called terra sorry ust they make a bunch of coins right but there's this terra usd coin that's a stable coin that is attached to luna in ways that we are going to attempt to break down with a guest in a minute but this was this represents in many ways like a real attempt to to realize the currency part of cryptocurrency to actually turn create a stable coin that could be used as a low transaction cost way to move money back and forth like actually you know make a digital currency that was super easy and cheap to use right and along with a broader crypto crash that we're going to talk about a little bit later in the show the terra and luna project which again was supposed to be stable like stable coin it's in the name one dollar it's in the coin you would always be able to get a ust for a dollar yeah has become uh untethered to use an unfortunate funny pun and confuses even more confusing that one dollar price point yes and call the peg which they call the peg and even briefly i think they they stopped trading there's an exchange mechanism that happens to help ensure the stability of this price and they stopped that mechanism because of congestion and confusion and and and that is literally the sum total of what i understand which is why we're bringing our guest on yeah because to help us explain this our guest is a

SPEAKER_13: uh i would say a crypto skeptic and uh he writes a newsletter called the fud letter fear uncertainty and doubt is uh what bud stands for and he co-hosts the crypto critic pod so he is a critic uh and he's named himself such his name is bennett tomlin and i interact with bennett all the time how are you

SPEAKER_39: sir i'm glad to be here jason i'm doing good uh so you have been on this for a long time uh you are

SPEAKER_13: skeptical of these projects i had uh doh kwan of terraform labs on the pod and i couldn't get an

SPEAKER_39: explanation for him of how this i guess they call these algorithmic stable coins they're a little different than stable coins we have usdc by circle um which is really like a you know jeremy hilarious

SPEAKER_13: company an american company with a lot of regulation planning on going public and they seem to have done i i would think we would agree that they've done the most in terms of making sure the one-to-one exists there's a dollar in a bank account somewhere to the dollar that the the token is worth and tether you've been super critical of we can get into that but let's let's try to define what exactly is

SPEAKER_39: going on and what is luna because there's a staking component to this where people are getting paid 19.5 percent to give their bitcoin to great liquidity to make lunas that supposedly equal

SPEAKER_84: what yeah what these coins bennett what and that's where i kind of go who's who's pegging me

SPEAKER_85: because i feel like i'm getting pegged by the time like i give my coin like i feel like i'm the one getting explain this to everybody okay did i go too far with that metaphor might have got a little

SPEAKER_89: too far i get it um so yeah as you mentioned there's like what i think of as like the asset backed fiat backed stable coins um the more reputable ones being like usdc run by circle or uh binance dollar or paxos dollar which are both run by paxos both which have done a much better job than tether of making sure they had adequate reserves and avoiding the ire of the law then there's other asset backed stable coins like tether which have had long periods where they had insufficient assets then in the more like decentralized stable coin space you have the like over collateralized debt based stable coins like maker dow which creates the die stable coin so there you're putting up extra collateral to get the die out and so it is a little bit more protected because you've got that extra buffer algorithmic stable coins like luna and terra rely on a bit of um alchemy almost where uh i'm

SPEAKER_96: sorry the word you use was alchemy the word i used is alchemy yes uh not science not magic somewhere

SPEAKER_97: between the technology word jason yes i'm just looking it up at investopedia

SPEAKER_103: and so uh the terra chain is a cosmos chain that you can run various smart contracts on

SPEAKER_89: and luna is like the base token for that in the same way that ether is the base token for ethereum however the difference with tara is that it has built into the protocol like this foundational algorithmic stable coin idea which is that if we assume or if luna does have value we can use it as like a pseudo collateral for a currency like token and that's tara and so um um by going through the protocol you can always exchange about one dollar worth of luna for one tara or one tara for about one dollar worth of luna and so as long as luna remains valuable the idea is that it can be used to collateralize the supply of terra in circulation and when you exchange the luna for

SPEAKER_05: the terra the luna is burned right it's so oriented if you're going the other way yeah if

SPEAKER_107: you're going the other way okay so that there's always a control on the supply of luna on either direction

SPEAKER_89: yeah and that's that right there is also what can lead to what's called like the algorithmic stable coin death spiral right is because tara is effectively collateralized by luna you can hit a point where the value of luna starts to fall pretty rapidly and we saw this happen during the deep pegging where uh at one point and i think still now luna ended up falling its market cap below the market cap of circulating terra and so there is insufficient um demand insufficient liquidity to actually collateralize the terra in circulation um the issue with this becomes when the people try to redeem the terra in circulation and go back to the protocol to get more luna the protocol has to keep minting and selling the luna effectively into a depressed market with a falling price and so you end up with this dynamic where when that starts to flip when the collateral effectively starts to lose value it becomes increasingly challenging for

SPEAKER_112: the stable coin to recover all right everybody weddings are fully back in 2022 as i'm sure many of

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SPEAKER_116: get that 50. got it does that mean i can buy luna at 60 cents and get a dollar worth of terra and

SPEAKER_39: arbitrage it or do i need like whatever you know one point whatever terra luna is to buy a terra uh

SPEAKER_119: when it crash so yeah right now because it's below peg what you would do is buy up terra so like for

SPEAKER_122: say i think it's 90 cents right now so you'd spend 90 cents getting your terra you'd go back to the

SPEAKER_89: protocol and you'd swap that for a dollar worth of luna and do the arbitrage that way when it's above peg you do the pet you do it in the opposite direction and exchange one dollars worth of luna for one terra which when it's worth more than a dollar you can then sell and make the difference there yeah and so if you are confident that you would be able to sell the dollar worth of luna you'd get for that uh arbitrage then there is a reason for people to start acquiring ust and the open market is the

SPEAKER_122: part of the dynamic that's assumed there because they want to make that arbitrage they want that easy 10 20 30 whatever percent as it de-pegs so who oh yeah why should this have worked

SPEAKER_05: is my question right so there's this idea of this algorithmic stable coin and that will stabilize like was there ultimate confidence in this arbitrage mechanism to ensure that tara would always stay stable like i'm sort of not sure why this wasn't always destined to come apart um i would argue that

SPEAKER_89: it was probably always destined to come apart uh and i think most algorithmic stable coins are basically

SPEAKER_122: always destined to come apart because they rely on this kind of alchemy of convincing people that this thing that should be worth nothing is worth something and there was even a bit of a taxid acknowledgement in like the luna community that a lot of the things they were doing in order to

SPEAKER_89: to grow tara in order to scale this up were unsustainable and couldn't last right so such as like uh subsidizing the anchor yield right so terraform labs the company behind tara was basically giving millions and millions of dollars to the anchor protocols so that they could pay out a much higher rate to people who lent their tara than the market actually demanded or wanted right and so because of this a whole bunch of people were minting more and more tariffs they could take advantage of this 19 or 20 percent um interest rate that was being offered i'm sorry protocol did you say 20 percent

SPEAKER_103: interest rate i did i did yeah they were offering a 20 interest rate for a while on a stable coin you

SPEAKER_131: know bennett you're you're a finance guy are you aware generally of what the stock market returns on

SPEAKER_89: average every year it's less than that madoff did like what 11.8 per annum over his way when he was

SPEAKER_132: cheating and yeah yeah he was the greatest ponzi scheme in history and the market returns seven

SPEAKER_13: percent in venture capitalists you know over you know many decades and and lots of work um in a very small tiny market uh relative to other markets you know the best ones can return 20 year over year

SPEAKER_39: so here you get 20 for loaning them your bitcoin or you buy terrors and you loan them into this pool

SPEAKER_42: and they would give you back 1.2 terrors or another 0.2 terrors for everyone you lent every year you uh

SPEAKER_103: or can you deposit your tara into the protocol you get a token that represents the tara you deposited

SPEAKER_89: plus the interest it accumulates well it's there i think it's called a ust for anchor ust and then that represents the yield you're accumulating until you finally get that money daily weekly monthly yearly

SPEAKER_103: i i i i i'm not a hundred percent sure okay i'd have to look it up but it's uh it's paid pretty regularly it might even be paid block by block i'm not sure interesting so it's not like you're waiting

SPEAKER_140: to the end of the year or quarterly you're you're getting it basically in real time so a bunch of people

SPEAKER_39: with money sitting around said well if these schmucks are going to give me a dollar 20 for every dollar i let them hold i'll let them hold some dollars so somebody gives them a million bucks they

SPEAKER_140: get another 200 000 at the end of the year more than you're going to get yeah i i think many other

SPEAKER_89: investment yeah so like there's there's people go out on the open market and like might use their dollars to buy tara or might use their dollars to buy luna and then convert it to tara they're not giving the dollars like directly to terraform labs or anything like that but yeah they go out they get

SPEAKER_144: they're buying the terra from some other third party who owns terms yeah yeah some other member uh

SPEAKER_103: likely one of the large market makers which keep those markets liquid um and so yeah then they're able

SPEAKER_89: to use that to get the yield and so the steel man good faith version of what this algorithmic stable coin was trying to do is that by doing these unsustainable things by incentivizing this growth they hope to get it large enough and with enough interest use cases and other things for it that they would be able to stop doing the unsustainable thing and people would still think this thing

SPEAKER_147: should be worth a dollar so you're saying that they set up a scheme by which they were promising

SPEAKER_05: some returns and then maybe those returns weren't happening and so then they started to try to incentivize more people to come in and continue to buy so that they could eventually get caught up and return the returns that they had been promising all along okay because i believe i may have just

SPEAKER_89: described the madoff scheme they're they're generally pretty careful to not outright promise a certain level of return in official marketing materials from like terraform labs but uh there was definitely

SPEAKER_143: like a subsidy to help make sure that it would continue to grow right and would get larger i want to

SPEAKER_12: i told you i told you remember i told you molly though last week that i knew a poker guy i think

SPEAKER_00: i said unless we show yeah who is like i stopped playing poker because i'm just staking a bunch of crypto and making like more money there than i would in a poker game right so continue well my actual

SPEAKER_05: follow-up question is who are the large market makers that you referred to what's that dynamic all about

SPEAKER_89: well there's a bunch that trade it just because it's relatively liquid and integrated at this point but like three arrows capital jump crypto and alameda all are actively trading and making markets in terra and uh several of them were also recently part of the secondary sale of luna tokens to create the luna foundation guard which is where terraform labs went out and bought uh or were going to buy i don't

SPEAKER_159: remember how far they got through it 10 billion dollars worth of bitcoin to help support the peg so it is

SPEAKER_09: really important for founders to understand what sock 2 compliance is basically i'm just gonna dumb it down real quick if you are a sas or a services company and you need to store customer data in the cloud then you need to be sock 2 verified from a third party in order to close major customers if you're not sock 2 compliant you cannot close big deals okay we got that out of the way but here's the thing sock 2 verification is brutal it is time consuming tedious and expensive or at least it was but now there's vanta vanta's software makes it way easier to get and renew your sock 2 compliance on average vanta customers are sock 2 compliant in just two to four weeks that's compared to three to five months without vanta you don't have that kind of time you're running a startup here and vanta partners with over two dozen audit firms who have been trained to file sock 2 reports directly within vanta and here's the best part vanta is going to give you a thousand dollars off get a thousand dollars off at vanta.com twist that's vanta.com twist for a thousand free dollars got it okay now here's a chart

SPEAKER_168: of that the lfg reserves so they had started to build up some reserves in bitcoin

SPEAKER_39: and these were to back the stable coin and the luna token in case it became unpegged am i correct

SPEAKER_89: that's the intent of this it was meant to be used to perform open market operations to defend the peg uh it wasn't like yeah so it's not like directly you can't directly redeem your tariff for bitcoin you can't directly do anything like that it's just meant as a uh as a pool of money that these market makers and terraform labs can use to try to fix things when they break got it and they raised over

SPEAKER_176: three billion of this at some point or maybe it was less but it the value of bitcoin was supposed to

SPEAKER_89: end up being 10 billion dollars when he announced it i i don't know how much they ended up actually

SPEAKER_179: getting to before things really started to uh struggle this chart says between two and three

SPEAKER_39: billion was in there um uh from january until now and then they deployed that to i guess prop up the

SPEAKER_42: sale of lunas and this basic run on the bank that's occurred the last couple of days or to enable buying

SPEAKER_103: and selling basically yeah on the open market it i think it was announced that they did a at the very

SPEAKER_89: least a 1.5 billion dollar loan of bitcoin and 1.5 billion dollar loan of ust to several of these major market makers i think that was on pretty early on sunday to help try to stabilize the peg and then since then there was the other large withdrawal where they moved some of their funds to a separate wallet and uh seemed like they were getting ready to do another deployment of capital so yeah they created this big pool of money and basically tell these firms go out and use this money to

SPEAKER_05: help get this thing back to a dollar got it okay so where are we now we are not at a dollar right we have it we have on we have untethered from the peg we were yeah we were at like 90 cents when i

SPEAKER_129: checked it a couple hours ago i don't know exactly what it's at right now i think that's about right and then what's the thing with the halted trading that happened um binance is uh oh binance ended up

SPEAKER_89: having a limit on their order books for this where they weren't allowing any bids to be put in under 70 cents for a while and so because of that when the market price of this token fell below 70 cents there was no bids available on binance and so trading effectively halted um besides that they were also they also halted withdrawals for tara and luna which meant people who had those tokens on binance could not sell them because there was no uh bid and they couldn't withdraw them because those were

SPEAKER_39: frozen so now that the reserve is gone luna foundation guard reserves seems to have been depleted

SPEAKER_176: if another run happens they have no way to prop this up is am i interpreting that correctly uh i'm not sure

SPEAKER_103: if the reserve is entirely gone or if uh they just had to move part of it as part of the structuring the

SPEAKER_89: loan or whatever but yes there there does it's not a sustainable strategy right every time the peg breaks it becomes a little bit harder to build up the confidence and faith in this thing again to convince people once more that they should believe this thing is worth a dollar when they've just seen it not worth a dollar and so they can use the reserves they have for now to likely bring it back up to a dollar i think they've got enough billions of dollars to pull that off for today at least but you're right that next time it happens next time something like this occurs they can't do that again right because the money's gone the money's been spent or even if they have enough to do it next time what about the time after that and so yeah it's not a sustainable strategy for them to continue to use

SPEAKER_193: their reserves in that way who's the bag holder here like who's who's losing all their money um

SPEAKER_103: retail investors who got into luna pretty late uh before the ico of luna there were private sales

SPEAKER_89: to about a dozen venture capital firms and those were done at 18 cents and 80 cents per token so they're still very much in the green um i think jump crypto alameda and three arrows capital were the big three who participated in the luna foundation guard secondary sale which i think they might be in the red right now because i think that sale might have been priced higher than uh 30 dollars but the people most in the red right now most getting screwed are the uh retail investors who got in a

SPEAKER_13: little bit later i think i just figured something out molly a bunch of venture capitals bought luna for

SPEAKER_168: luna tokens for 18 cents to 80 cents is that correct bennett yes that's absolutely correct so they buy these dollars or what's supposed to eventually become a dollar right it's supposed to peg with the

SPEAKER_110: actual statement luna luna is the governance token is the staking token token token for the change and

SPEAKER_129: then you can burn the luna to get tara right it's supposed to be at it but it's supposed to be at a

SPEAKER_203: dollar eventually is that correct it's supposed to is luna can be at any price and got it yeah but

SPEAKER_05: if you have luna at 18 cents and you want to arbitrage it for that tara at a dollar you make money

SPEAKER_89: no no no because if you just end up having to burn like five luna to get one tara right got it it's a

SPEAKER_02: literal exchange with an exchange rate what what is luna trading at got it uh 30 or so right now um so

SPEAKER_206: these they got in at 18 cents luna went up and luna peaked it like it was as high as like 90 bucks

SPEAKER_39: right at something like 115 wow so am i correct in thinking that the people who got in at 18 cents whoever they are they now are up just trying to do the math here really quick 10 10 times 18 cents is a buck 80 100 is 18 dollars and if they were above 100 they were a thousand x in their investment yes

SPEAKER_00: so they're up a thousand x they're still up if it's you know at 30 i mean they're still tremendously up uh you know whatever 150 200 x this is extraordinary in like a year or two uh the ico was

SPEAKER_122: in february of 2019 so the private sales were probably end of 2018 beginning of 2019 so about three years

SPEAKER_56: in three years they were up between as low as today 150 200 x their money and as high as a thousand times their money yeah so if they sold all that to the bag holders known as retail then they'd be sitting on billions of dollars in some cases and then they want to keep this thing up they do this

SPEAKER_89: um well is that right part of the interesting dynamic here is that i don't think any of the major market making firms that were part of the recent secondary sale to set up the reserve were part of the original two private sales and so that's you're actually getting at part of the interesting dynamic here is that the early venture capitalists had such a massive price appreciation um that i think many of them probably did at the very least downsize or de-risk their positions over the last year and so they're probably okay and can stomach just about any drop in the luna price um the bigger issue is for the retail investors who came in later or for the firms that participate in

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SPEAKER_05: because i had a similar realization about bcs who are super into crypto recently just as a side note which is like if you you take an equity stake in a business that is related to crypto and you get a big token allocation so you effectively you get paid twice like i can see why there are billion dollar funds going into this okay but back to uh this specific instance and i i just want to dig into what this means for trust and stable coins which you alluded to earlier because there are these two types right there are stable coins that are specifically pegged to fiat currency and others that are

SPEAKER_103: algorithmically pegged uh yeah so i think there's like the subset of ones that are like they're

SPEAKER_89: sometimes called bank coins right like circle paxos tether where the funds are held in financial institutions at least for the ones that aren't tether the funds are held in financial institutions and like they act kind of like a pseudo month tokenized money market fund um then the algorithmic ones are still pegged to the dollar but rather than having like a pool of cash and cash equivalents

SPEAKER_122: which is meant to support the value the only thing supporting the value is the arbitrage mechanism

SPEAKER_05: against the governance token or against whatever else so then how much damage does this situation and these you know happenstances over the past few weeks due to the idea of the algorithmic stable coin

SPEAKER_09: if we assume this is just a market trying to figure itself out here right yeah i think it's plausible that

SPEAKER_122: this is going to do some pretty substantial damage to algorithmic stable coins as a whole they've existed for years at this point dan larimer did it with new bits back in 2016 2017 way back

SPEAKER_89: and then we've had tons of follow-up since then um this one was a little bit unique because it got quite large uh the terra market cap at one point was 18 billion dollars and then that's not counting the lunar market cap which was an additional 40 billion on top of that so between the two you had like a 60 billion combined market cap for this token system and yeah and they were sponsoring us sports teams they were purchasing 10 billion dollars of this other asset they were connecting more they were trying to connect and use it for payments and all these other things that started to touch the real economy in a little way so i think that terra was just at the point where they were starting to really provoke a lot of interest from regulators and stuff like that and now that they've gotten to the scale where they're doing that and they're actively failing i think it's quite probable that their failure is going to bring in more regular regulatory attention to this class of stable coins besides that there's another kind of tricky dynamic here with the billions of dollars of bitcoin that they

SPEAKER_103: purchased to support the peg and that's that they are now in a position where the longer the system is

SPEAKER_89: de-pegged the more they need to continue spending until they've effectively burnt through their entire reserve of bitcoin continue continuing to sell those into the market depressing the market and making it more challenging for the crypto ecosystem as a whole right because so an entity relatively quickly liquidating 10 billion dollars you're talking about contagion yeah yeah and so there's the broader contagion from them selling bitcoin into a falling market there's the closer contagion with like magic internet money which is uh daniel sesta and uh amar dahani sifu created a protocol on ethereum which would go through the anchor lending market 10 times rehypothecating each time to try to get leverage on the yield they were subsidizing and they used this to create their own stable coin which they called magic internet money and so like last night in the abracadabra box we saw a bunch of liquidations in that protocol because there was a bunch of people who had effectively levered up their terra and were getting liquidated and so the issue with stable coins broadly is that by their nature in d5 where they're like this very base building block that gets integrated into a bunch of other protocols and other stuff like that when they fail they have the potential of taking down any protocol that's

SPEAKER_68: integrated them deeply it would just be like the dollar failing or a country's dollar failing and

SPEAKER_39: your 401k your college all these different applications retirement savings all of those loans mortgages are based on this dollar whatever dollar it happens to be or renminbi or euro

SPEAKER_13: so this is the underlying operating system of many different applications and so when they fail so when you mentioned before there was like 60 billion dollars between the tokens and um

SPEAKER_39: the stable coin i i'm wondering where all that money lives now where who got all that money yeah

SPEAKER_108: or who had all that when you say value was it like i mean crypto is not the world's most liquid

SPEAKER_89: markets right at no point could anyone have sold 60 billion into these markets and gotten that out of it right and so it's it's the naive calculation of taking the price of these assets and multiply it by the amount in circulation and so despite the fact that that was the nominal value there was never that

SPEAKER_39: many actual dollars that went into the system there were elizabeth warren was losing her mind last week

SPEAKER_56: over you know i guess fidelity was going to include bitcoin i guess as a retirement thing and then she

SPEAKER_232: was also on the stable coin thing early i've always felt like maybe the united states government would like to keep their sovereignty of their currency you know and maybe also keep the weapons in the military

SPEAKER_39: maybe we'll also keep the land you know known as the united states maybe these things together would be important to the united states the land that we live on the money that we own in the world and we

SPEAKER_209: use and the planes and the bombs and global reserve currency that affords us a lot of benefits yes

SPEAKER_39: but then it people seem to think that the that governments would be like you know what it's

SPEAKER_237: fine create your own money compete with us there there is sometimes this uh you're pointing at something which i think is quite accurate and kind of funny because you'll see it quite often in crypto

SPEAKER_89: where simultaneously you'll have someone discussing the powerful anti-state properties of their technology now this stands like against the power of the state and the power of the government and everything for that and then as soon as the government takes like a glance at them you watch them start panicking and screaming that it's unfair that the government can't do that to them and that contrast has always been kind of funny to me yeah because uh yeah you're saying you're going to go after the state you're going to take this whole thing down you're going to destroy the system then the

SPEAKER_227: system looks at you and it's not fair i'm worried that you were exaggerating your capabilities at

SPEAKER_05: the beginning it's also very interesting because as you describe for example buying a massive trove of bitcoin to use as a reserve in order to sort of prop up this system and uh pump liquidity into this market and then you describe essentially selling out of the market sort of like quantitative easing or rolling back quantitative easing and then you describe uh what did you call it rehypothecation which sounds a little bit like buying and and selling collateralized assets a little bit like the 2008 housing crash like it sort of all starts to feel like same story as the first story right it's all just still financialization and using a deep understanding of the way that markets move to make money which to me doesn't sound that different from what you know our financial institutions are

SPEAKER_103: doing now it's just like a different skin i i think that there's certainly truth to that and that

SPEAKER_89: much of what's been successful in crypto are basically examples of financialization um and and i don't think that's a particularly controversial view in the cryptocurrency community like it is ironic yeah perhaps but like foundational like most of like the web three think pieces and

SPEAKER_122: stuff that a16c is cranking out daily is that it fundamentally allows you to financialize all of these different interactions and transactions like that's their investment thesis for this class is

SPEAKER_05: that it allows that thing and it doesn't have value without that like at some point you can create all the like pieces of paper and ious that you want but until you make a bank until you create the concept of debt until you attach interest until you do all of these financialization mechanisms you can't explode the

SPEAKER_103: value yeah yeah is that they're they hope they're trying to capture a whole bunch of what they see

SPEAKER_89: as value that's not currently being captured because a whole bunch of these things aren't financialized they think that if they can financialize them enough people will pay something for it and they'll be able

SPEAKER_176: to get a cut of that so this is all going to be regulated to all heck in the coming months right i mean the fact that we're seeing this if this thing collapses or if it just continues to be uh not pegged and people are losing money all kinds of lawsuits are going to emerge state attorney generals are going to start filing like new york did against tether and sanctions and you know countries blocking these but the u.s proposed uh a stable coin regulation framework the stable coin trust act uh i think back in april uh of this year um this is all going to be regulated and this mishuggan is going to be stopped

SPEAKER_237: is it not bennett i i don't in the united states at least yeah i i've been covering tether since 2017. it's 2022. it still exists and so uh my i don't like to put timelines on the u.s government at this point

SPEAKER_89: because uh they don't move that the rate i thought they did uh they've proposed several different frameworks for regulating stable coins most of the ones would bring the like fiat backed the asset backed ones into the banking framework somehow either under occ's purview or under the federal reserves purview um i think that those are a good start um i think that banking regulators should have purview over stable coins because they're banks effectively they're taking deposits and often making loans and so i i think that that's an appropriate step forward the question then becomes how do you effectively regulate something like an algorithmic stable coin like luna or terra right they the sec has already subpoenaed doquan and terraform labs but largely it seems related to the mere protocol which was built on top of the terra chain and allowed the uh allowed to allow you to basically create synthetic assets so you could like create a token pegged to the price of tesla stock and then trade that and the sec yes yes yes the sec heard that and said that that sounds like it's

SPEAKER_255: illegal and sent some subpoenas um i mean i know bookies will do that for you yeah

SPEAKER_256: yeah and if you live you don't like your kneecaps yeah and so the sec i think could go after terraform

SPEAKER_89: labs and try to claim that the original ico was a security sale they could try to crank down in other ways but it is somewhat challenging to try to figure out the best way to regulate an entity like terraform

SPEAKER_259: labs yeah yeah i got a super simple suggestion just cap the size of these things until the regulation is

SPEAKER_13: clear like they came they can build to a certain scale in like a sandbox but these things like

SPEAKER_61: this whole idea too big to fail is just really scary to me and i think the bag holders eventually wound up being a bunch of consumers and retail investors coming out projects one at a time

Jason Calacanis: piecemeal like that is just gonna that's just like a stupid shooting where they could last forever

SPEAKER_05: bennett tomlin we could probably talk about this forever uh but we would only get more confused bennett is the co-host of the crypto critic pod and writes a newsletter called the fud letter

SPEAKER_264: thank you for translating this for us today yeah thanks for your hard work i appreciate it absolutely

SPEAKER_269: good follow on twitter by the way he mixes it up thank you thank you all right uh all right we're

SPEAKER_56: going to uh move on to more news here all right we have to get into stocks now so we talked really do

SPEAKER_46: the bitcoin crash bitcoin 29 000 29 000 uh just the other day bonkers that's over half over half its value

SPEAKER_274: in what a year i mean i think it peaked at 70 um and as the people who are long-term hodlers know

SPEAKER_13: you know it's a bit of a roller coaster so 50 pullbacks you know 75 pullbacks have happened and they happen kind of the 50 ones to 25 ones happen all the time like every year or two so they're kind of all in on it uh i think a lot of them don't sell they just look at it as like buy it forever and if it happens to 10x or 100x from here like why would you not take that chance i understand but they they can track those wallets molly and my understanding is 40 percent of people who bought bitcoin are underwater now so this feels like a real tipping point and panic can ensue which

SPEAKER_260: we're actually seeing a similar panic in the public markets right now we are and let me read you a

Jason Calacanis: headline from bloomberg markets today and i quote the bubble portfolio is getting absolutely crushed

SPEAKER_05: hmm nobody missing any words yeah markets have been down for three straight days i think like there's a little bit of a creep up today but tech stocks in particular have had a 1.7 trillion dollar wipe out uh we went through our producers pulled some examples of some of the precipitous half dome-esque drops major tech stocks that are down at least 70 percent from their mid covid peak so we thought we might just go through some of these numbers and you know just in relating

SPEAKER_13: to bitcoin um wallets with balances of more than 10 000 bitcoins according to cnbc have been selling a lot in the past few weeks ultra high net worth people and you know institutions so the people it's not just the paper-handed recent people i think there were a lot of stock market people institutions who were like yeah i'll take a flyer on bitcoin and now that the you know take a flyer days are over they're like yeah i took a flyer i'm going to either take a modest win or a modest loss now and find

SPEAKER_07: something else of true value and that is going to be the theme molly is where is the actual value in

SPEAKER_02: the economy totally and we have talked on this show before about how we you can't help but notice

SPEAKER_05: that bitcoin in particular and some crypto in general seems to move in conjunction with the market because it is in fact all the same buyers in some cases and now i'm curious to see now that there's a drop in a resettle whether we'll see some decoupling from that whether it'll go back to sort of purists as opposed to institutionals but either way what you said it perfectly molly the the

SPEAKER_168: people who are the early true believers in it they don't sell and they might even accumulate more because they just believe in fundamentally what this technology would do in some cases it's religious it's toxic you know those early true believers and then who came after them to run it from let's

SPEAKER_42: call it 20 or 30 up to 60 or 70 000 dollars per coin those were the people who maybe don't even understand it they haven't read the bitcoin paper this isn't religion for them this was a speculative buy they didn't want to feel like suckers who didn't get in on bitcoin when it was going to a million a coin all these people were saying it's going to a million a coin they you know had very bullish million dollar coin predictions and so buying at 40 50 60 70 when it's going to a million seems like a good idea right you know 20 extra investment 15 extra investment where can you get

SPEAKER_39: that in the economy and hey those people got a thousand times so 15 times seems reasonable yeah but at no point did people say well what's the underlying value here i think the early true

SPEAKER_42: believers understand the underlying true value of what bitcoin does in terms of scarcity and you know not being hackable at least to date in the core protocol so those people are correctly called

SPEAKER_56: paper hands they were speculative and as they get wiped out i think you're making a very good point if that might be when you hit the floor is the early true believers are not selling at 20 you know or 10 or 15 or 25 or whatever wherever bitcoin bottoms out at so and then follow an argument to that is once

SPEAKER_05: we hit the floor then we start to explore what the real value of bitcoin could be because so far we've probably arguably been distracted by it as an incredible store of value so if we start to figure out what bitcoin's real value can be now that there's room to experiment because it's not a you know meme stock to the moon maybe that's when we actually unlock the potential that takes it to a million i don't know i'm holding on to my teeny tiny holdings i can tell you that i'm i'm a hodler as

SPEAKER_00: well um and i i think the store of value is a really great one just like owning some you know gold bouillon you know could have some store of value or homes and you know homes have utility as well

SPEAKER_13: and they generate income so it's slightly different um but the producers did an interesting thing here yeah love this love this so we you want to know how much cash um and marketable securities you know basically holdings how much cash is a company sitting on at the end of 2021 um and marketable securities these are financial instruments that can be quickly converted into cash at a reasonable price like treasuries or something so just how much cash do these companies have maybe what is their 2021 full

SPEAKER_00: year revenue in 2021 full year profit loss um and uh these the stock prices were as of 1 pm eastern time on tuesday so if you look at a company like coinbase it's down 75 percent molly yeah from its covid peak of 357 share a lot of venture capitalists on uh twitter giving high fives and

SPEAKER_07: talking about how much they made um you know still at 70 hopefully they locked it in because well you know they they couldn't in a lot of cases because of the lockup right so they probably

SPEAKER_00: weren't able to take advantage of that unless they sold right before the ipo in the year before it anyway coinbase uh still a great company but their market cap is 16 billion but this is where it gets interesting so this is why i asked everybody here to tell me how much cash do these companies have

SPEAKER_39: because i remember from the dot com era people saying do you know this company has more cash than

SPEAKER_168: their market cap we're not there yet but that was the true sign that things had left any conception of

SPEAKER_291: reality so what does it mean well let's just take this example i'll walk you through it molly and you're going to have some questions i'm sure and some observations if the market cap is around 16 billion and they got a 7 billion in cash well if you take those two numbers uh from each other and 16 minus seven is obviously nine that means the enterprise value of coinbase is nine billion right because you have six seven billion in cash sitting uh you know so the the value of the company what it's inherently

SPEAKER_13: worth and then the amount of cash you got to put those two things together and you can also separate them right uh said another way they could buy those seven billion dollars in shares in a stock buyback and if they didn't escalate because they were buying them but if they just traded that money in and had no cash on their balance sheet and they were profitable whatever oh well they could just retire those shares right so you get my point here now the 2020 revenue was 7.8 uh billion uh which was 6x for 2020 and their income was 3.6 billion it was a crazy year 2021 people were still really getting into this current price to sales ratio of 2.2 x price to sales just means price to how much

SPEAKER_00: revenue they had total um so sales is you know uh another way of just saying revenue top line

SPEAKER_13: yeah and the q1 earnings are going to come later today but this is very interesting to me um do we

SPEAKER_168: really think coinbase is only worth 9 billion with you know that many accounts and being the category leader in crypto crypto is not going away there's a lot of value here and we're just going to go

SPEAKER_13: through a couple of examples of these because i think i said yesterday on the show we're bouncing the

SPEAKER_39: ball's bouncing and i'm calling a bottom i'm calling a bottom as in like there could be a

SPEAKER_13: little more dips from here but there's not far to go yeah because if the enterprise value is less than the cash or you know it starts to become 50 50 or something like that you're starting to look at these and saying like well you're really giving them no credit for whatever product they have in the market and whatever revenue they have etc and i think that's where we're at so net out the cash nine billion dollar company with 7.8 billion in revenue last year forget about this year i mean that could go down or whatever we'll find out but even if it was just the same their enterprise value is like 1.1 times their revenue last year's revenue it doesn't make any sense right

SPEAKER_168: um and so that doesn't mean i'm giving you investment advice but i do think this is my thesis of why we're bouncing along the bottom the ball is bouncing along the bottom maybe rolling on let's do

SPEAKER_05: shopify you can do okay got it fundamentals okay so shopify down 80 percent off its coveted peak of almost seventeen hundred dollars a share in 2021 its current market cap is 42 billion dollars its cash at the end of 2021 was 7.7 billion dollars 2021 revenue was 4.6 billion that was up 57 percent over 2020 net profit in 21 was 2.9 billion this does include however a 2.9 billion unrealized gain from investment so really spotify was break even here net adjusted adjusted net income for 2021 was 814 million dollars up 40 its current price to sales ratio is 9x so the 2021 adjusted net income molly of

SPEAKER_168: 814 that takes out uh things that don't happen every quarter and that are not part of the core business that's what they mean by adjusted net income right right so that would take out two things what would

SPEAKER_07: it take out well certainly that unrealized gain from investments okay and then it would also take

SPEAKER_00: out stock compensation because people look at the stock compensation as not part of the core business and that's a polarizing topic but um if you just want to understand the core business they they made they made some money yeah uh but then it puts their current price to sales ratio at nine and this is

SPEAKER_05: super interesting we have a good tweet to this uh to this effect analyzing shopify's value saying from dan mccormick saying shopify at 42 billion is now worth less than clarna at 45 billion dollars which is one of roughly 17 buy now pay later uh apps that process payments primarily on shopify got it yes so

SPEAKER_13: yeah the people who are building businesses on top of shopify being worth more uh so this is the process molly when you're having this panic in the market different uh there's different holders and different amounts of shares um that are floated so the amount of shares available to the public to trade might be 10 percent in one company might be 50 percent in another the others might be privately held uh and so you you do have smaller number of shares available here uh in some cases and so the market's trying to figure out what these things are worth so you might have one company lose all its value you know last week and then it kind of trickles down to the next and we saw that with the fangs right

SPEAKER_39: uh or the tangs or the mangs if we well if we put met as a first letter um the mangs terrible

SPEAKER_07: because aren't we taking netflix out of the thing now maybe yeah i went out with tesla in it so tangs

SPEAKER_51: so if you anyway tags tags tangings if you place netflix with meta you get the n turns into an m you got tangs and the a becomes okay all right long long way of saying like it took a while for the you know

SPEAKER_42: even the mighty fangs to capitulate and for people to take some chips off the table there right um and so this to me is the great unraveling now we're in the panic selling mode retail is out institutions are starting to pair positions and then that means these companies are left you know sitting here going does this make sense because i i think we're a real business and you might want to buy our stock and then the ceos as we talked about yesterday uh and the companies might do buybacks because they think their stock is too cheap the ceos might start buying shares because they think it's too cheap insiders might buy shares and so that will be the sign that we're going to start going on our way up in my mind or that could be a sign i don't want reticent to give financial advice

SPEAKER_168: this is all my handicapping in the situation yeah i mean what we're doing now is weighing we're

SPEAKER_13: weighing we're doing some way yes we're putting things on the scale and saying does this make sense okay twilio we'll wait twilio um it's at 95 dollars a share it's down 77 uh it was over 400 now should these companies ever have hit those peaks no it was the stonks crazy days where people were

SPEAKER_168: betting that game stop or amc were great bets to make and people were manipulating the market with

SPEAKER_13: gangs of people what could go wrong right we we all knew that this was like crazy insane behavior some people thought it was like fun and playful um and it showed like there were insiders who were manipulating the market so why can't the you know rank and file retail investors also get in on manipulating the market against them let's put that argument aside for a second and just realize that

SPEAKER_00: it's not a game at a certain point it's it's money um i guess you can play games with money like gamble or whatever or poker but um if we look at this as investment and people's savings and people work at

SPEAKER_13: these companies take a little more serious tone here market cap is currently 17 billion for twilio they have 5 billion in cash so these companies were very smart to raise large amounts of cash in an upmarket what does a smart management team do they just take down as much cash as they can because it's cheap to do so if you lost 80 percent of your value that means every dollar you take cost five times as much now or they were 80 off when you bought them previously you get the idea

SPEAKER_168: raising an up market is always a good idea the revenue 2.8 billion uh and they're up and they have

SPEAKER_00: a loss of uh 949 million um they spent a billion on sales and marketing um they're currently uh price to sales ratio is six times and so um you know they they're definitely going to be in an uber like situation uber said uh dara with we covered it yesterday molly um hey let's just get super serious if the markets need to see you know just cash flow coming in um we're gonna just cut things we don't need and that could include the bottom 10 percent of employees it could include marketing spend it could include office space it could be perks it could be you know special projects pet projects by various people in the organization we're just gonna get focused and so twilio pretty focused company i could see them getting super focused they got plenty of uh runway if they have five billion and they're losing

SPEAKER_42: a billion a year uh they have five years of runway they could probably cut that in half and have 10

SPEAKER_00: years of runway and they're growing so if they get raised prices etc um yeah yeah and and this is one of

SPEAKER_05: those examples too where i would look at not just the business fundamentals where there's a lot of cash and they're growing and all of that is true and most of their spend is on marketing they're also sitting right in the middle of where all marketing communications is going which is to text right as an api that enables text-based communication in an era of apple's privacy changes good point i don't think

SPEAKER_13: you can discount this business at all and i would actually look at and say here's an example of a company that

SPEAKER_61: microsoft uh google and amazon web services should just buy immediately yes i mean if elon can go and you know uh make a tender offer for uh and try to buy uh twitter like why not go for twilio it's i don't

SPEAKER_13: think it's gonna ring antitrust alarms there's tons of cloud computing players in fact there's three giant ones that we just mentioned and twilio would tuck perfectly in with send grid i also think they have segment they bought my lord would that be a perfect get for microsoft at 17 billion now if they give a 50 premium 25 30 billion take that off the table put apart as azure and then you've got

SPEAKER_00: another three billion dollars in azure revenue or google such an easy purchase for them and the next one

SPEAKER_13: and zoom is yeah i mean i would get on it i mean i would be super aggressive in buying things right

SPEAKER_00: now yeah absolutely this next one zoom falls into the same category like a 26 billion market cap my lord it's a it's a would be an amazing purchase for salesforce uh combined with slack yeah uh my god put those two companies together if i was running zoom i would have tried to buy slack put those two companies together yeah zoom imagine you're in your slack instance and zoom is just integrated

Chamath Palihapitiya: into it so when you watch a zoom it's a slack channel yeah i mean it's the same interface so and

SPEAKER_05: then you have persistent freaking zoom chat yeah in your slack channels that's then searchable later yeah i mean this that's like a no-brainer and zoom is not again zoom not going to zero like yes it's down 82 percent off its coven peak but it's also a verb now yes like snap it up yeah current price sells 6

SPEAKER_259: billion 6.6 x um they also 5 billion in cash and uh you know they're profitable i got a billion in

SPEAKER_61: profits i mean if if i was slack if i if i was bending off running slack i would put i don't know

SPEAKER_13: why but they they make the video features in slack and the huddles part of the paid product

SPEAKER_00: i would just make it free and do the 40 minute gating if you want to go past 40 minutes which i think is the number that zoom still uses 40 minutes it turns you off if you're not paid why not go with that like time gating as opposed to feature gating feature gating is when you can't use the feature unless you pay time gating or consumption gating in in in products is when you let people experience

SPEAKER_13: how great it is and then annoy them a little bit like ah now you got to restart your call i mean just throw the slack should just go right after zoom and conversely zoom should launch a slack competitor if you know everybody's at launch.co or at this week in startups or at inside.com you know they're all part of that organization just give them all a slack-like interface with channels right and just say hey build the channel over here and here's a chat room i mean you're you're already chatting in

SPEAKER_168: every zoom and then everybody does the same thing on zoom did somebody save the chat right somebody

SPEAKER_05: cutting paste the stuff we put in chat it's like that's like absurd it's absurd that those are and the chat is pointing out by this point the way speaking of which is the notice gerald points out microsoft teams does this sort of a slack plus zoom workflow yes which again to me is all the more reason to either like you said one of these two products needs to build it in or they need to be merged 100

SPEAKER_61: square one of my favorites down 70 of its peak i own some square shares uh well actually now it's block uh and uh the ceo jack brilliant block head he's the head of block uh it's down 70 of its peak market cap 48 billion looks like a lot of these uh companies like to keep 5 billion around he's got 5.2 billion

Chamath Palihapitiya: sitting there 2021 revenue 17.6 billion my lord 81 percent up 81 percent you're over here something's

SPEAKER_00: going right there i you know that that might have been uh you know their their forays into the cash app

SPEAKER_61: in the crypto but we'll see if uh what happens this year but net income 158 million in 2021 uh current price of sale is only 2.7 x so again you know if you're bargain hunting here and you're looking at these companies just gotta ask yourself like the square have great leadership check so they have you know great fundamentals to the business it seems like a check great products check customers

SPEAKER_188: love them yep i mean yeah i i'm worried about this one i mean i listen i like oh explain why i i'm not

SPEAKER_05: sure where this company is going it's sort of like you're doing a pivot now and i'm not sure where your pivot's gonna land well okay so that's bad communication feels the pivot feels philosophical and religious i don't i have not heard the the clear articulation of the business reason for the pivot and i don't know what the path forward is for this company and so for me i don't feel 100 confident

SPEAKER_13: that i trust the okay yeah they they have um really two major business lines here they got the cash app right yeah that's just basically a way to bank invest and to send money back and forth and

SPEAKER_00: that thing has been just absolutely printing money and like you know tons of people using it um and then you also have the merchant services which is square yep uh which you know is like credit card processing it's a low margin business i mean they're all finance so they're all low margin business technically uh but my lord has square become just an incredible phenomenon you ever see like the cash app where they'll give like a hundred thousand in bitcoin or cash to some artist and say hey just hit reply with your cash app handle and i'll send you money and it's you know like in urban communities and you know uh it has really made inroads that other people haven't made banking i think jack is a genius that way and uh i think he's running the uh square the cash app twitter handles um we'll see yeah so

SPEAKER_05: we'll see minecraft steve we'll see that's what i call him now now that he's all in on block it's just a that was a really nerdy black minecraft joke anyway breaking news that's the one where we're

SPEAKER_46: like yeah elon musk said i guess i would reverse donald trump's i guess i would it's i don't really

SPEAKER_07: need to think that hard about it i guess so sure i felt like it should have been time ban

SPEAKER_00: i feel like banning the former president forever was a mistake because it feels too partisan i would have just done okay he incited violence people like we're having an investigation i would

SPEAKER_132: have just done one year two years something and then say it's going to double right so you don't look like it's just i'm on the scale kind of stuff i mean honestly my takeaway from this is like

SPEAKER_05: friends don't let yourself be gas lit what the thing you think is happening is happening yeah sorry like this is one of them where like every signal that has been sent is that this is about unbanning trump this is about bringing back like this sort of you know hard right accounts that have been it's about it's about appealing to a certain segment of the population online and everybody who shouts at you that that's not what it is that this that's what it is and it's the same with like the precedent being set by roe v wade this is just ranty time but it's exactly the same thing with the precedent being sent by the alito draft like if you think you can yell at me all you want and say that it's not going to end up at contraception or gay marriage or the right for a company to own your dna and not you but like what your eyes are telling you is happening is what's happening it's uh reasonable

SPEAKER_259: after watching what happened with um this roe v wade opinion and again we don't know the exact

Jason Calacanis: outcome of it but it seems pretty clear and after watching like who elon's interacting with on twitter and then i guess i'd probably reverse this ban like i'm just saying what you're telling you is the

SPEAKER_80: truth dorsey also uh jack dorsey uh former ceo also felt like permaban was too much um so you know

Jason Calacanis: this is not about a permaband this is not about the like this is not at all about the specifics of

SPEAKER_357: the type of ban um permaban just fundamentally undermines trusted twitter as a town square where

SPEAKER_360: everyone can voice their opinion oh that's from bloomberg okay that's ceylon's quote i don't disagree

SPEAKER_00: with the exception of violence and bots and spam and stuff like that the violence thing is the one

SPEAKER_13: that gets me like i i think it if you just double it it becomes essentially a permaban right like so if you get a year for saying something violence or doxing somebody get a year now you dock somebody again you get three years you dock somebody again you get nine years maybe you triple it it just becomes super punitive and then eventually it's like okay i mean that's cool like you and i can

Jason Calacanis: totally have that conversation yeah if you're buying twitter to undo that one thing he's not i can tell

SPEAKER_16: you he's not buying twitter too well that's the signal that is sent here like that is the signal that is

Jason Calacanis: sent here is that i'm buying twitter so i can undo the trump ban so i can undo all of the stuff about

SPEAKER_05: anti-vaccine stuff so that i can undo a a brand new little war on disinformation meant to try to

Jason Calacanis: like save our democracy and many lives is it always has it always been fought the right way absolutely not but is trump literally undermining faith in our elections to this nanosecond yes i mean but see

SPEAKER_13: now if you put them on a one-year two-year ban um and i guess this will be our third new story for the day is that the breaking news story here if you do put trump on this um you know short leash where it's you know the next band's going to be so whatever how long has he been off twitter now is it january 6th and we're now i mean i guess who cares twitter can do what it wants the company well no i know but i like to think about the nuance of the issue if he comes back and he says the election was stolen and we know it wasn't and that's a dis do you does he get to have that opinion uh or is that i guess this is going to become the question is like undermining the election is it illegal to do that in the united states and if the litmus test is it's not illegal then i guess he would be allowed to say i believe the election was stolen sure yeah so that's not even arguing for

Jason Calacanis: a permanent ban i'm just saying that at some point this is all like this is not about bots and spam and missing you know it's not about bots and spam like it's about a it's about a hard right turn and

SPEAKER_05: i have questions about what that means for our democracy in our society uh the search for truth

SPEAKER_61: is uh going to be hard and i'm really curious what this bird watch product does in terms of like uh people's ability to vote and clarify that so in this world with bird watch if trump were to say the election was um stolen and the consensus um note underneath it was uh trump sued in 61 jurisdictions and lost 61 jurisdictions and here's a link to the wikipedia page the washington post page the fox

SPEAKER_377: news story whatever like you know yeah i wonder if that's i think our entire society has to learn digital literacy we have to learn critical thinking we have to build up an immunity to these you know

Jason Calacanis: like these platforms have only existed for 15 years really right they're like they've only existed for 10 years right i think of twitter and my son that's what i got on twitter when i was on maternity leave right so i think of twitter and my son as the same age his frontal lobe is not developed yeah neither not

SPEAKER_05: until social neither is social medias and so we are definitely figuring out how this stuff should

Jason Calacanis: operate and some of that is good we don't have any immunity to it as a society like information and disinformation and propaganda at this scale and we are 100 trying to figure out how to live with it and what the new boundaries are but when someone comes along and then just buys it on what appear to be

SPEAKER_353: ideological grounds i'm not sure that's like a healthy way to build immunity yeah interesting yeah yeah

SPEAKER_13: uh i mean anyway who knows if this deal is going to even close i'm looking at the stock market and

SPEAKER_69: wondering like is this deal going to get repriced i wonder about that too i also wonder about the tesla

SPEAKER_05: shareholders and how pissed they are going to be like you know they've seen it they're seeing like i just mean i'm not even saying they're right or wrong i'm just saying like you see shareholders right now

Jason Calacanis: who are like a you seem distracted but b you're selling tesla stock to do this and on and on and on like

SPEAKER_00: i do wonder well uh tesla shares have held up you know i think pretty well versus the market um and he did bring in all that extra money to lower his mark i think he cut the marginal loan in half was that did i read that correctly i think so so if i i mean there's a lot of cut the marginal loan down

SPEAKER_13: to zero if people keep wanting to invest in it i suppose more people will want to invest in the

SPEAKER_00: company uh if he's running it they'll see it as an opportunity but man it feels to me like if the deal was done today it would be 30 off at a minimum 30 the share price was 54 so 30 of that is roughly 15 16 16 16. it means it would be a 40 sale today 40 a share yeah and i wonder what twitter

SPEAKER_357: is trading at today i think i sort of 44 earlier so pull up the twitter share price see the real

SPEAKER_61: time i love the real time 47 47 right so this deal should really go at 40 uh is that the actual price of twitter right now given the market correction could be even 35 um which it's traded down that

SPEAKER_00: low before and so you know people did say that the price was more than fair it's probably why the board went for it so quickly uh but we'll see what happens uh we're obviously going to be on that story

SPEAKER_61: this market curve uh is really changes everything every dynamic is now on the table you know private

SPEAKER_00: markets public markets crypto everything is going to be what's that term maelstrom yeah maelstrom it's like a maelstrom right now like everything is getting spun around in this crazy chaotic whirlpool and some people will get out of the whirlpool and other people are going to get sucked into it and

SPEAKER_05: drowned god i mean really it is all up in the air it's felt up in the air in some ways but there was like there were chunks of it that you could kind of count on like the stock market kept going up uh your 401k was okay how's it you know there was so many things that you were just like well at

SPEAKER_35: least this is fine yeah and now it's like oh yeah the future is 100 unwritten well and you know the

SPEAKER_13: ukraine situation um we forgot about that i'm sorry ukraine what can i say the ukraine situation because i'm referring to situation yes definitely okay yeah so i got that grammatically correct i really want to make sure i get it grammatically correct every time and i educate the audience it's not

SPEAKER_61: the ukraine but it would be the ukraine war or the ukraine situation because i'm referring to the word after ukraine but ukraine's prejudice you totally so you you superimpose that uh on top of

SPEAKER_00: this roe v wade these two things are like you know earth shattering uh for many different people europeans are wondering if there's going to be like a war a nuclear war any kind of war on their doorstep or there is a war on their doorstep and then yeah half the country here feels like they got rug pulled and lost a right from 50 years ago and then the stock market is crashing crypto is crashing

SPEAKER_71: uh this feels pretty chaotic and this is all coming out of a um it's all coming out of a pandemic

Jason Calacanis: good news and then layoffs a layoff right now we're wandering into a market crash so like guys if you're just at home ugly crying right now i just i see you you know what okay it's important

SPEAKER_61: it's okay to be freaking out it's important also to look at um the fact that whatever your personal state of affairs is uh i encourage people to look at the joy and love family friendships experiences

SPEAKER_13: they've had and just take solace in knowing like there's always been wars there's always been pandemics and sickness there's always been market crashes and recessions these things will always happen and people have lost rights and people had to protest to get them back and fight to get them back these things are things that occur uh over the course of history uh and it sucks to be experiencing them all at the same time but they do pass uh and you need only look at historically the arc of rights and

SPEAKER_71: freedoms have at least in this great country uh resulted in more and and justice uh the trend i'm

SPEAKER_167: saying it's perfect no i i'm actually like feeling totally i'm only smiling because i'm like this is awesome well and market crashes they typically lend to they typically happen over two to 82 quarters to

SPEAKER_13: six quarters we're in month we're kind of in the third quarter of this right so that would argue that it's going to end sometime in the next three quarters yeah and the war um all the ones that putin has started seem to resolve themselves and trickle out and you know result in some border border debates

SPEAKER_00: uh and as tragic as it is uh they have not resulted in world war three so if you just look

SPEAKER_56: at the uh those three things crypto is some weird thing on the side uh we generally compare those

SPEAKER_05: to tool it's part of the transition right like we're in a we're in a transitional period in history and if you have been reading i've been reading all of those books lately about the cycles of history the fourth turning and the ray dalio book and and even just a even a casual student of history understands that it repeats it's a real time is cyclical like it horrible things happen and then good things

Jason Calacanis: result from those things and the best you can hope is that you and your loved ones aren't killed in

SPEAKER_05: that war don't lose everything in the recession right like it's interesting that we started this show with our conversation about prepping but yeah i mean it is it is a time for balance for a strict social media diet and for a lot of physical exercise to keep those endorphins high because

SPEAKER_314: uh it you know and and spend some time with your family and when you go and have a beautiful dinner you

SPEAKER_61: make a beautiful dinner with your family tonight uh or you go uh you know for a hike uh and you take your dog out for a walk you know the world's gonna seem pretty great and it is so follow jay cal and

SPEAKER_13: look at his kitten videos i mean the kittens are pretty great too breaking news breaking news right now breaking news not bad news i'm getting a second bulldog so oh so we're gonna have another female

SPEAKER_421: bulldog i just want to see the videos of the kitty snuggling the bulldog that is all i'm here for we're

SPEAKER_116: not keeping those kittens the kittens are going yes you are no no no no we have somebody adopted

SPEAKER_13: them already what yes we're gonna we're gonna nurse them to six weeks but the person's taking them on the weekends we keep them during the week when they get to six weeks the girls will say goodbye

SPEAKER_424: i made a deal with my daughters monster i'm willing to run if they're willing to detach and get and find new homes i'm willing to run wait for it um a literal animal rescue at this house oh i will fund an

SPEAKER_42: animal rescue because i know kids love animals little girls love animals so i was like you know

SPEAKER_39: what you guys want to run an animal rescue i'll i'll that's i'm all here for it but you know six weeks with the deer eight weeks with the falcon six weeks with the kittens and then you have to find a home for them so we can keep them that's good you can visit them but we're gonna have the two bulldogs that's enough for sustained i mean it's a lot of mouse to feed molly i gotta get back to oh i know i know

SPEAKER_147: i'm out there too i'm outnumbered by dogs it's exhausting uh all right see that was a good that's

SPEAKER_432: a good that's a good and rachel always a bit of a sleeper i gave her a little pep talk today

SPEAKER_61: privately i was like you gotta keep bringing these great ideas but um she spent a lot of time on the

SPEAKER_131: twitter she's doing really good on hard twitter i'm like well how about the first make sure we're producing the show here uh you know i need some of that funny on the show here um you know it's like you hire a comedy writer and then you're like why are these great jokes over here you work for the letterman show right here they should be on my monologue not on your twitter so you know let's

SPEAKER_80: let's just focus where the paycheck comes from here a little bit um but she says she's building a brand for using the light phone uh this is the um if you don't know the light phone it basically doesn't

SPEAKER_84: allow you to doom scroll it's just the phone and you get like your sms and it's pretty cool actually

SPEAKER_265: you got to read the whole thing she wrote oh she did yeah i need to hear this i'll be using this time to pitch the light phone aka you got to say this i think the justification yeah justification of the

SPEAKER_00: kindle paper white light phone is pretty good pull the light phone up here i think that this is um something very cool that i might give to my daughters um you know like uh as their first phone

SPEAKER_314: where they can just get like very simple call their dad text light sms it just looks like a really cool

SPEAKER_05: i love the light phone yeah it's super smart no no social media installed i mean this is actually

SPEAKER_116: exactly what kids should be getting i wouldn't mind giving them also like an apple watch with the lte in

SPEAKER_00: it and then they could call their dad or mom anytime and they could have some apps on it some music or whatever but not be on the open web kind of craziness if i could have like a watch that i controlled um

SPEAKER_63: but yeah you but your your son has a phone now yeah obviously he does he was pretty early to having a

SPEAKER_05: phone i think just because of you know his parents i mean i was like reviewing them yeah they were all over the house he is i gotta talk about how to manage that i'm like a little torn on this yeah because i know that there are a lot of parents who keep the phone from their kids but i feel like my son knows how to moderate in some ways because he has had one longer i may also be kidding myself but

SPEAKER_176: you know some kids have them at school and like the the back channel i get back of what's going on with

Jason Calacanis: the phones it's like i mean the phone is definitely an ongoing nightmare like it's distracting him in class he's always getting in trouble for having it out like it's a whole i don't know how you're

SPEAKER_07: allowed to bring phones to school it feels to me like they have to be in your locker it should not

SPEAKER_265: be in your classroom i 100 agree but then they end up using their phones for stuff at school so see

SPEAKER_16: that's the bs though the teachers need to say yes and the teachers need to be like i i've heard this

SPEAKER_13: before like oh they need a camera it's like yeah get them a regular camera teach them how to use that's a great thing to do teach them how to use a camera yeah like an actual camera with you know like

SPEAKER_168: shutter speed and everything like what a great lesson they don't need their phones to be a camera like just have a camera in every classroom for a hundred dollars in his middle school they had

SPEAKER_265: the june box like they were like if you have your phone out we take it you get it back in june

SPEAKER_05: loves that yeah sweet and i think that they should have it in high school too but i think they're also that's like also when you need to learn some executive function so i don't really know

SPEAKER_269: maybe seniors you know all right let's wrap with uh one more story all right peloton mr earnings

SPEAKER_00: again and its stock is now down 90 of the pandemic high this is for peloton's q3 of fiscal 2022 i guess they're on the uh the old non-calendar year for for their quarters held on stock is down 93 percent from the all-time high of 163 dollars a share which they hit in december 2020 during the pandemic where everybody thought everybody would have a home gym instead of ever going to a gym again and now everybody's stoked to go to all in summit get on planes throw their masks in the garbage and go to spin class again it's it's uh whether whether it's accurate or not the pandemic is over for most peloton's market cap is now under 4 billion for the first time since august of 28 when they raised their series f their private market at a 4.1 billion dollar post money so of august 2018 so peloton's market cap is

SPEAKER_456: now under 4 billion for the first time since august 2018 when they raised the series app at 4.1 billion

SPEAKER_458: and that is yeah the private they're back to private they're back to market evaluations and if

SPEAKER_05: we do our weighing exercise like we were doing before peloton currently has 1.5 billion dollars of cash and marketable securities on hand it's its price to sales ratio seems to be about 1.1 x so

SPEAKER_464: they're worth 2.5 billion so they're worth 2.5 billion can we buy them just why not i mean we do an lbo of

SPEAKER_359: this um so run us through what we see on the screen here uh for their q3 results yeah so q3 revenue

SPEAKER_05: 964 million dollars that was down 24 year over year down 15 quarter over quarter subscription revenue is 370 million dollars that's about 38 percent of its total revenue versus product revenue which

SPEAKER_265: is 505 594 million or about 62 can i stop you there for one second yeah definitely subscription

David Friedberg: revenue is 370 million if you take out the cash they're worth 2.5 billion dollar enterprise value

SPEAKER_13: right we talk about sas businesses being worth 20 30 40 50 times even in today's depressed market

SPEAKER_00: 30 40 50 might be what a high growth one would be now this is declining so you you know and but i think

SPEAKER_13: it's declining because of the reopening it will it will increase again maybe next year or the year after i would bet but if they're worth 2.5 billion and they've got 370 million a year in subscription

SPEAKER_472: revenue or is that per quarter is that the quarter quarter this is quarter this is just q3 so that

SPEAKER_424: means they have 1.3 billion in subscription revenue subscription for the year that means they're trading at two times or subscription revenue that makes no sense that makes no sense this is now to

SPEAKER_473: the point i think i might buy some ballot on today i know this is that makes no sense paid subs 2.9

SPEAKER_424: million yeah they're worth 2.5 billion that means each sub is worth a hundred dollars and they're

SPEAKER_16: increasing the subscription price they're talking about rolling the hardware into a more expensive

SPEAKER_09: subscription so they'll effectively have hardware as a service i don't i'm not ready to give up on this turnaround i know i have a little crush on barry but still yeah they added subs that's good um

SPEAKER_13: they lost 757 million so i guess that's the issue here okay so now we know why they're worth so

SPEAKER_00: little i see never mind none of that well if their cash and mark was curious are 1.5 billion and they're losing 757 in the quarter that means in two quarters are out of cash yeah that's scary

SPEAKER_431: that's the math right that is why this thing is so they basically have to cut half the employees

SPEAKER_481: so i really am getting a half price peloton tread yeah this is any minute now anyway you might not

SPEAKER_267: buy a different peloton though exactly i mean i keep looking on craigslist 1.5 billion i mean who

SPEAKER_39: how do they raise money now that's the problem when you get into this negative zone like this

SPEAKER_42: when your expenses are so expensive this is why we talk about runway constantly

SPEAKER_00: uh yeah we talk about runway constantly in startup land because hey you know it uh your strategy is largely determined by how much cash and runway you have in your growth and all the stuff so this is a business that's not growing and they're losing a ton of money they have two quarters of

SPEAKER_16: runway i mean are we really saying out loud that peloton has two quarters of runway left from this point forward from this point forward if this right if this if they stay if nothing changes right

SPEAKER_02: peloton appears to be out of business in two quarters well they they could get cash other ways they

SPEAKER_117: could take loans etc uh they could do a secondary and sell more shares or they could be bought

SPEAKER_13: yeah so it's not going away no they also have 1.4 billion dollars in inventory so they got to clear that out if they could clear that out let's say they cut their net loss i think they can cut their

SPEAKER_00: loss in half here i don't and i don't know the nature of the loss here oh so now they actually just an update here we had the wrong cash number well no the cash numbers um can fluctuate based on

SPEAKER_13: quarter so it's actually 800 because you got to take the 757 i suppose out of the 1.5 billion

Jason Calacanis: right so it's even worse so this is like a very acute situation so they have three months to get

SPEAKER_05: bought liquidate that inventory at every raise money at any cost or raise money but despite the joke i made seven minutes ago conditions on the ground have changed and i don't think we should

SPEAKER_00: buy them after all um this is i mean there's a reason why the stock is getting crushed yeah when did the earnings come out they came out this morning or last night and then what is the morning

SPEAKER_13: i think so then i would say show us the stock over the last five days um because that will tell a

SPEAKER_61: pretty interesting story of what people think over the last five days is going on here and if we look at the last five days yeah so that means you know a lot of people who was trading at 18 dollars 19 dollars maybe 1871 is the high watermark for the last five days and uh it went down to 11.67's now at

SPEAKER_00: 13 basically 12.99 so yeah people are losing faith that they're going to come out of this yeah this is what i was talking about earlier today molly is the capitulation that can happen um somebody might just let's say you had put a hundred thousand dollars into this during the you know when it was at 45 dollars and you're looking at 30k right your 100 is worth 30k you're thinking i take the 30k out i put it into amazon and i get my 70k back you know yeah whatever the next five to ten years or or i put 10k into tesla 10k into google 10k into uber whatever you know there's got to be a company with better management and a better actually uber would be for me like an interesting one if uber says hey listen we got we're gonna get to profitability we got a ton of cash you know we're trading at this great multiple maybe just take the 30k you have here you put it into uber you put it into google

SPEAKER_56: depending on your risk you want to have less risk you want to have more upside um and that's a better bet right and so this is what is happening in the market right now is that pure capitulation because somebody's looking at this saying well if it's at 13 and i bought it at 40 could it go to three it could so my 30k could turn into you know whatever 10k or 5k even and that's the that's

SPEAKER_00: the panic so it is uh hard to determine assets for a company uh because it's not going to be very

SPEAKER_61: specific but if we were to look at their balance sheet um for those of you uh who are in the slack room we'll share the link there for you uh so uh assets current assets cash and cash equivalents we know what that is right it's literally cash in the bank or you know things like treasuries

SPEAKER_00: things you can liquidate very quickly we've got 879 of them as of basically april 1st marketable securities they don't have any marketable securities would be they owned like google shares or something um accounts receivable this is money they're owed they say 74 million this is i guess could be people who are delinquent on their account or somebody owes them money um i don't have a reseller chance it's not like people are reselling it so but if you were reselling your products if you were selling pelotons on amazon you know amazon might owe you money right something like that inventory

SPEAKER_07: 1.4 subscription payments too like incoming subscription payments i don't think that would be listed here because i think you get charged at the beginning of the month not the end but it could

SPEAKER_00: be people who are delinquent right so they that it could be that okay so yeah accounts receivable could also be bnpl buy now pay later so if somebody was paying on a payment plan maybe that's what that is prepaid expenses and other current assets prepaid might be i paid my rent for next year i paid for a bunch of chips i paid for uh the petals you know so in order to keep you know the chips in stock or the the screens in stock we bought an extra 100 million worth of them because they're hard to

SPEAKER_42: source and when we got our hands on them we bought them so that 200 million is stuff they prepaid for

SPEAKER_00: it that expense would come next year but it sits on the balance sheet as an asset uh because you don't respect property and equipment 754 million this would be you know desks chairs laptops intangible assets um this can include a lot of different things like ip i believe would fall into intangibles uh goodwill again that could be things like uh considerations for a um buying something uh that

SPEAKER_61: has some inherent value so if they had bought i don't know um a brand that had some value right sometimes people will buy a brand and they say well there's some goodwill for this brand it's worth 41 million restricted cash look at the difference though by the way just as a side note if goodwill

SPEAKER_05: is like assets that yeah you can't monetize directly that include like brand value

SPEAKER_108: then you you have to compare it you can't really move on without comparing it to 2021 when it was you know 210 million dollars versus who knows what's out yeah if i'm being honest i don't know exactly

SPEAKER_116: what's in there i know that's a catch-all restricted cash would be like maybe you put down a letter

SPEAKER_13: of credit for an office space but you don't have access to it so in two years you will have access

SPEAKER_00: to it so that would probably be what restricted cash means operating lease right of use assets so they might have leased factories or office spaces i'm thinking but i don't know why that would be considered an asset unless they paid in advance so i don't know understand what operating lease right of use assets means and then other assets 39 million could be catch-alls for other things

SPEAKER_61: um so uh and if we look at investopedia uh tell us what they say yeah i looked it up so there's a

SPEAKER_05: couple interesting things about this one goodwill really is just reputation i mean it's like customer loyalty brand reputation these non-quantifiable assets um so it is significant that it went from you know 200 million dollars last year to 41 million dollars even though it can't be directly monetized the other thing that's interesting is that a lot of times uh companies will combine

Jason Calacanis: intangible assets and goodwill into the same exactly into the same line item but in the case of peloton they did it and they broke them out separately that's why i kind of nailed this because i said

SPEAKER_510: i yeah so here it says here on investopedia copyrights patents licensing agreements and

SPEAKER_116: website domain name totally so if you own inside.com it's a million dollar domain name on insights balance sheet if inside were to go belly up doing four million in revenue it's doing really

Jason Calacanis: well i can't believe you can list i can't believe you can assign a dollar value to reputation

SPEAKER_39: and loyalty that's so fascinating people can but they don't yeah um i don't think that that's a common

SPEAKER_13: practice when you get bought sometimes people will put stuff into that so if you're buying a company and it only has like 10 million in revenue and you're buying it for 100 million you might say well 20 million of this is the goodwill of the brand that we're buying so when we actually got bought by aol they had put goodwill and intangible assets for a portion of what in gadget autoblog and those things were worth they called it goodwill intangible assets on this statement i saw of how they

SPEAKER_00: valued us yeah um because it did have a brand that meant something to people so if you were to buy nike or you were to buy star wars like star wars like that ip those copyrights the marvel characters like

SPEAKER_281: we as we have seen that is a real thing there's an intrinsic value to that because people are attached

SPEAKER_05: to it so so really that the difference in those two numbers is significant and also no matter what the like too long didn't read here the tldr is like they're in trouble oh and also a great note from

SPEAKER_12: one of our producers peloton but precore so i actually had nailed that that could have been like

SPEAKER_00: pre-core they they bought some asset and it had some value so it's for everybody who's listening

SPEAKER_05: just in case this part isn't in the show nick jumped in and was like hey can you just like run through this on the fly because we're not really sure what all this means and jason was like yeah

SPEAKER_265: let me take a stab no problem i picked up a couple of things along the way there you go your free mba

SPEAKER_84: i've never done anything but you know just right on the backs of my investments um you know and this

SPEAKER_519: tragedy has to stop you know it's a shame it's a shame that you just aren't good enough to be in the

SPEAKER_99: mob yeah yeah it's just this is you know i'm not good enough to be in the mob and i'm just riding on

SPEAKER_522: my investments i will say i have written some investments truth be told i did ride that uber

SPEAKER_247: investment pretty hard i believe that uh i believe that's the intrinsic value of your brand goodwill jason

SPEAKER_13: well played mollywood well there we are everybody we're now at an hour and a half show thanks for tuning into this week in startups how do you help the show you follow mollywood you follow us on the

SPEAKER_314: twitter you give us a rating you go to youtube.com this weekend and you join in the fun every day we laugh it up from 10 to noon ish uh and you put on after the subscribe button molly there's a little bell there you hit the bell you give updates you got youtube on your phone you're sitting there at your desk you're on your tread and you want to hear the straight dope but you're gonna get it from molly and jcal jmo is here for you to break this all down moja is high uh put on those put on the bell just hit the bell and you'll get to um chat with us and then uh soon we're gonna be doing this week in startups live in the fall we'll start to we did the meetups experiment that went really well

SPEAKER_00: lots of energy there we're going to upgrade that to this week in startups live uh and so we're going to come to your town and we're going to do something great uh with the show live and

SPEAKER_61: featuring startups because the show is about startups so we're going on the road molly we are

SPEAKER_42: hot damn who's your favorite what's your favorite city mo you got a favorite city oh my god copenhagen let's go i do like copenhagen i was trying to keep it domestic for now but uh i'll think of some uh

SPEAKER_495: in new orleans let's go to new orleans and we get the chicory coffee and some beignets i love new orleans uh yeah i've been there 20 years 20 years but we will tear that place up