SPEAKER_00: here's the thing about h1b visas versus american college graduates h1b visa are going to get paid 30 40 less and because you have they essentially become indentured servants if they don't find a new job within 30 days of being laid off they're kicked out of the country with their family it's incredibly cruel and unnecessary they should have at least six months to find a new job a minimum minimum like it's ridiculous so the people i know who are abusing the h1b visa system and other systems like this i have heard people explicitly in my career say we're going to get these people because we can work them harder and they don't have any recourse you know to call them indentured servitude or slaves maybe a little bit hyper it's obviously hyperbolic but they are less empowered workers and i would say significantly cheaper and less empowered so jd makes a good

SPEAKER_05: point this week in startups is brought to you by inbound connect with visionary leaders like dario amaday and amy polar at inbound 2025 september 3rd through the 5th in san francisco the epicenter of tech innovation and transform your business strategy for the ai era use code twist 10 for 10 off your general admission ticket at inbound.com register valid through july 31st bolt don't be left behind build apps quickly without knowing how to code with bolt.new try it free at bolt.new twist and public you take investing seriously public does too build a multi-asset portfolio and earn an industry-leading 4.1 apy on your cash with no fees or minimums learn more at public.com twist all right everybody welcome

SPEAKER_09: back to this week in startups alex wilhelm jason calacanis here on the ones and the twos i just got back from dc uh after being in new york was supposed to have a little vacation see my family and then my friends decided 10 days ago during the middle of my new york vacation to see the family that the president needed to do a summit with all in and we had to actually make some big announcements so we'll start with that i think talk about those executives orders i'll give you some behind the scenes of course and then there's a ton to talk about and we got a lot of great founder

SPEAKER_11: questions and stories to process because hey i haven't been here for two days or for two shows you did six excellent interviews which was the highlight of the interviews uh i think extropic

SPEAKER_16: now jason you're familiar with the twitter account based jeff uh based jeff bezel whatever that guy he's the founder so we had him on and we got to talk about thermodynamic computing future of ai chips and power it was just one of those interviews in which i didn't know much about the deep science but i got

SPEAKER_19: to learn a lot so just an absolute treat we're trying to make these uh 20 minute interviews not like to take up a ton of your time but you need to know about these companies and get the update

SPEAKER_00: they're also very busy so three 20 minute interviews and we want to get into the business models and looking at these through the business lens you know companies can spin what they're doing their mission all that i want brass tacks included in these they can give this feel about their mission and all right let's get to work here um i think you i don't know if you got to catch all the announcements but um it was a pretty exciting day uh many of you may have seen the president gave a talk he went massively off script it was a very interesting surreal moment to be in the first row uh first time i've met the president took a picture with him um got to see jd vance on stage we did a little round two on our immigration debate he loves to debate so that was awesome we went a little off script you know going into the immigration stuff was tangentially involved with ai but he wanted to have a freewheeling he decided the last minute he just is a fan of all in so he wanted

SPEAKER_09: to come and just you know chew the fat with the team and that was a lot of fun had a little um debate about energy which got a little spicy which was great spicy moments can kind of give you the road

SPEAKER_14: map to what's important for folks who are wondering like all in is not endorsing trump all in is a podcast with four members each person has a different opinion i would say three of the

SPEAKER_09: four people are very much in the trump camp and super big supporters and then you have one moderate moderator me who you know as i've said many times i think whoever wins i want to root for them and i will give my exact percentage of agreement with this administration every week if you all want it right now i'm about 80 in agreement with them uh which until the democrats or an independent puts up a better product that i can agree with half of what they're saying hey i got no choice but to support this administration and what they're doing with ai and crypto is a lot more than the last administration which wouldn't even meet with us so uh important note for the democrats you

SPEAKER_11: might want to meet with the business leaders in the world and at least give them a seat at the table and this was an unprecedented seat at the table i will say that um lisa from amd showed up um and we

SPEAKER_09: also had jensen from nvidia i mean this was big guns came out uh and it was quite surreal where do you want to start i'm sure you have questions for me all right so we are going to watch a video here this

SPEAKER_16: is with the energy secretary wright uh with jason debating solar power uh intermittency and kind of

SPEAKER_24: the future of the grid let's take a listen and just a crazy love affair with intermittent unreliable

SPEAKER_27: energy sources you're talking about solar why are you so down on solar this is the cheapest thing you can install batteries are here and they're being produced at an incredible rate why are we so

SPEAKER_26: anti-solar or why are you so anti-solar i'm not anti-solar why do you keep saying then that like this unreliable solar if you put batteries on it's totally reliable if you take all the batteries

SPEAKER_31: in the united states you could store five minutes of power five minutes of the entire country but

SPEAKER_26: if we've had many days in california and in texas where solar has been the majority of it so why are

SPEAKER_33: you so down on solar it can be the majority on a sunny day in the summertime yeah that's not what matters

SPEAKER_31: you in pjm where we are right now at peak demand this year 97 of electricity wind solar and batteries delivered three percent that's when it matters if you're 20 on average picking dc all right so

SPEAKER_16: this is so interesting to me because it feels like you're making a very obvious point which is during the daytime there's sun yeah we can collect that power we can put it into a thing called a battery yeah and then we can use it later on yep this is basic stuff and the response from this guy

SPEAKER_36: is well currently it doesn't power dc therefore that's just that to me is not i think in fairness

SPEAKER_14: to him he was probably expecting no pushback uh and that maybe he would just be able to give you know

SPEAKER_09: a standard spiel um but you know i'm paying attention and i wasn't trying to be super adversarial here uh but he wasn't expecting to push back you know what i'm not saying my job at all in is to give pushback but the spirit of the podcast is free dialogue unconstrained we're going to mix

SPEAKER_14: it up and so whenever i hear somebody like with a little too much spin and i felt like if you're

SPEAKER_09: gonna give solar this big dig without actually saying why i need to know why the audience is wondering why so we had to get into it he says later he circled back around later as you may have seen and said i just want to let everybody know i'm not anti-solar these guys are just i think very pro fossil fuels and so we probably had too much emphasis and too much of the government for many people's taste spending money massively on solar and wind and not doing enough drilling and now we're kind of got the other group in office they're going to be like trying to get more gas out of the ground

SPEAKER_00: etc and it's all of the above let's call it what it is we need all of it if you're going to look from this from first principles solar is the best solution for the short and the midterm nuclear and

SPEAKER_09: eventually you know fusion is the like the 10 year 5 10 years from now we might have more nuclear online

SPEAKER_00: for now you do need that gas for sure and you do need a lot more solar and solar you can just lay solar panels on the ground and when you need more power you lay more on the ground and you don't need to put them on roofs you know as long as you're not in a populous city where there's no space it is the best solution it's obviously the best solution if you look at the cost to install coal even and clean coals i think a significant premium on top of coal or to do net gas those um new plants are much more expensive than solar and worse for the environment yeah you know if you bring up environment i think you have to bring up two different pieces because it is a trigger some people don't believe in global warming so if we just take the global warming debate out of it right let's say for argument's sake that there was this grand conspiracy and global warming is a non-issue and it was a the just it was the whole thing was made up okay now i certainly think it's been exaggerated i don't think it's made up you know like you can see the global world we can have that debate but if you put that debate on the side nobody wants to live next to a coal plant that's not good for your lungs your kids nobody wants to rip the environment apart of course not but we do want to compete with china

SPEAKER_45: and other places inbound 2025 is almost here this is not just your standard user conference no you're going to get opportunities to check out the latest hubspot updates and demos of course but you're also going to hear inside level insights from visionary leaders and personalities dario amode will be there the ceo of anthropic they may claude and i am obsessed with that product and this is how you're going to level up as a startup founder you're going to level up by going to inbound 2025 work from home is over folks it's time to get back in person you need to meet new people interesting people kick around these big ideas do a jam session so if you want to hear from these experts like dario like victor riparbelli of synthesia hubspot founder darmesh shaw my favorite guy and many others we're going to see you there inbound 2025 it's all happening september 3rd to 5th in my old stomping ground where i am right now san francisco use the promo code twist 10 at checkout for 10 off your ga ticket

SPEAKER_11: at inbound.com register inbound.com register and so pollution is the better way to say it so if you

SPEAKER_09: just say pollution forget about the word environments triggering for people on a pollution basis you nobody 100 of people don't want to pollute so that's i think the way to frame this there's pollution and there's global warming i just say take global warming off the table we're going to solve it

SPEAKER_11: with technology and we're well on our way and the people who have to solve it frankly is not the united states because we have great standards whether it's democrats republican standards or somewhere in between the two it's indian china that's the no matter what we do in the united states it'll have zero impact on this long term if china and india don't get their stuff together and they they're going big time solar in china and big time nuclear so they have already got the memo uh so this was i think just a little bit of a political uh statement from him i think this administration

SPEAKER_09: is anti renewables generally speaking they don't want to give them subsidies okay fine don't give them subsidies solar still wins now wind you do have a pretty good case for wind is not actually very efficient it's very expensive you have to maintain these things it does kill birds it is an eyesore nobody wants to live next to a wind farm i get it yeah you do i do yeah hell yeah i think wind

SPEAKER_53: turbines are gorgeous oh really i think they're fantastic yeah aesthetically if i'm driving over like the rolling hills of northern california i don't want to see a bunch of windmills i don't mind

SPEAKER_00: in the desert i suppose yeah i don't think they're looking and but just cost wise everything comes down to dollar and cents solar's already won it's a meaningless debate uh but i'm great i'm glad we had it because it kept people very entertained during a very boring panel let's be honest energy can be very boring a lot of people came up to me and said hey thanks thanks for me you know making that interesting and speaking up about that and you know what it builds their credibility so whenever the administration faces some good fastballs uh which you know i think i'm uniquely qualified to do i have my background in journalism and also i'm not part of either party i'm a moderate i'm an

SPEAKER_57: independent i i'm not a democrat i'm not a republican i am a full-on independent moderate so

SPEAKER_16: so a couple notes about this one uh if you go back to uh may 13th 2025 to twist episode 2125 uh we had the ceo of terabase on terabase is a company that's helping people do mass solar installs and if memory serves jason they built a on-site robotic factory to actually finish the construction of these panels so you can do even faster even cheaper um updates to them so that's one thing so cool companies are out there are working on this now and just on on the count of um you know people that want to drill more the market is is talking right now the market is saying that what we are not going to do is keep drilling at the pace we have been this uh is a chart from uh white charts and it shows just the number of oil rigs that are currently active and as you can see it peaked in 23 and then this is not a regulatory point because this is 2025 starting here and it's been

SPEAKER_11: dropping pretty quickly so i i think the driver of that is is it i guess it's just the economics if you have if oil goes down below 60 a barrel it's not worth activating certain mines or certain plots

SPEAKER_09: because or rigs because it's just more expensive to to clean it etc that's where like the oil sands come

SPEAKER_16: in in canada canada is just too expensive oil sands is very expensive and the direct opposite of that is what saudi arabia has had which i believe is light sweet crude um that essentially if you stuck a straw on the ground it just came shooting out so it wasn't hard to produce as they say anyways all this is to say that i think you're dead right about solar and i thought that was a funny clip and i was like

SPEAKER_59: why are we arguing with the past this is a thing about the future oh you know it's um we live in

SPEAKER_09: contentious times and i look at how it's all framed and what is the truth you know i think as a person listening to this podcast you're all in just go to chat gpt go to grok go to gemini and say what is the cost of a solar installation and what you'll see is solar installs now are so much cheaper than coal

SPEAKER_00: to install a new plant that even the retrofitting of an existing coal plant is more expensive you can ask producer claude and he'll tell you and she'll tell you they'll tell you um they'll tell you

SPEAKER_67: producer claude they will tell you they'll tell you uh the truth is a sign agenda they're going to call us and be like what's that no it's just it's them it's they producer claude is it they and uh they

SPEAKER_00: will tell you very clearly that you know unless you're right on top of the gasoline you know right on top of the nat gas much better to just install solar there is a you know a challenge with

SPEAKER_09: who makes the solar panels and that's china so there is a little geopolitics sprinkled in here i think sometimes you got to tease this out there could be many things at work there could be lobbyists who want more natural gas um there could be people who want to stop the subsidies okay they feel like

SPEAKER_11: the left went too far but uh end of the day uh we have a ton of oil but we need more demand uh and we're going to need all sources the biggest win and i'll say listen you could give trump the nobel peace

SPEAKER_09: prize so whatever prize you want to give him i told some of the folks who i met in the agencies when i was there and some people working on nuclear i said if you guys stand up a nuclear reactor before he's out of

SPEAKER_11: office or within a couple years or you know he wants to do dozens i was talking to lutnik uh who spoke at the event and i was talking to him offline he said they they're going all in on nuclear they want to get dozens so if they do that i gotta tell you that makes them heroes to me because if we

SPEAKER_71: can get more nuclear on oh my lord that's going to be amazing for the abundance of this country in

SPEAKER_16: the ai race okay moving on i agree with that um you did mention two ceos that drop by jason uh both jensen and lisa do you wanna take a look at those clips real quick sure yeah cue us up whatever you

SPEAKER_13: got all right so we are going to hear from lisa sue she is the leader over at uh amd and we're going

SPEAKER_16: to talk about the potential for agi jason's clip is about one minute and let's give it a listen the

SPEAKER_27: best case scenario for this technology and this trajectory run which is accelerating and you're enabling what could the world look like in 10 years we let's say pretty obvious we're hitting artificial general intelligence at this moment i think we'd all agree we're starting to see that but super intelligence can't be far behind that i assume you agree with that um soon we hit that super intelligence what will the world look like in 10 years in the most optimistic scenario if we do

SPEAKER_81: this right well i think the exciting part about it and you know i can say this very sincerely i mean this is the most um transformational technology sort of in our lifetimes i mean that's the way we should think about orders of magnitude orders of magnitude and the reason is it's not just going after one aspect right you can actually take ai and make science better you can take ai and make medicine better you could take ai and make manufacturing better you can take ai and make every aspect of your business better and so you know in my mind 10 years from now we'd like to believe that we are um you know really leveraging it to solve some of the world's most important problems i i like to say like you know amders get up in the morning and they say you know how can i use technology to solve some of the most important challenges um in the world and you know ai is really our mechanism for doing that i have a

Chamath Palihapitiya: business strategy question if we went back 20 years and we were okay so i i think that's very optimistic

SPEAKER_13: because she's drawing a very wide picture jason where ai could impact yeah you know this is the

SPEAKER_14: natural tension of any discussion with ai we're in the industry i think we have a bias in the industry

SPEAKER_09: towards having seen almost every technology make the world better on the margins you know how people use technology is up to them so we are now at the lowest unemployment of our lifetime while people

SPEAKER_11: have become more efficient so in my 50 years on the planet 54 unemployment's at the lowest and i i remember

SPEAKER_09: every discussion about oh my god job displacement job displacement microsoft office the internet bike messengers were going away fedex was going away the mailroom was going away operators on the phone

SPEAKER_00: you know every career you could imagine was going away yet here we are with the most unbelievable robust employment of our lifetimes i know that's unpopular for people to recognize that so then we're left with the discussion you know is there going to be job displacement that came up a bunch of times i do think everybody agrees there'll be displacement and i don't think anybody you know knows if it's going to be comparable or not

SPEAKER_91: the vibe coding revolution is here the days of needing a team of developers to build your mobile app are over with bolt.new anyone can build web applications quickly and without knowing how to code getting started is as easy as visiting bolt.new and then telling their ai powered system what you want to make in plain simple english and this is not some template or wordpress blog no you can use bolt.new to design a stunning new landing page for your company you could upgrade your crm build a consumer facing app and more this is the future folks your competitors are already using cutting-edge tools to ship their products faster than ever don't be left behind try bolt.new for free at bolt.new twist that's right

SPEAKER_66: bolt.new twist yeah i want to just underscore your point just because i think this is actually a useful

SPEAKER_16: thing for people to see kind of in chart form so uh if you're on the audio version what i have here is a historical unemployment chart uh from the united states tracking the unemployment rate over time and if you're looking at the video version the shaded areas are recessions and so if you take a look at this jason here is the um the 90s and the first internet boom in personal computing and unemployment went down and then we here have the uh post great financial crisis great financial crisis this

SPEAKER_66: unemployment spike was the pandemic to your point and now we're back down to 3.6 3.5 but it doesn't

SPEAKER_16: matter what era of the country's economic change you look at we get back down to three four percent unemployment and the only thing that really spikes it is a recession so i think you're correct in saying that yeah yeah all this time we have seen consistently a return to full employment it would

SPEAKER_98: be a change in historical patterns to actually end up with mass unemployment from ai so i i'm

SPEAKER_11: long-term bullish short-term scared uh yeah i mean it if you look at self-driving and you look at humanoid robots in factories i gave a statistic and people asked me would you get that statistic from and

SPEAKER_00: i said well i did it in my head for every uh robo taxi on the road which will work 20 22 hours a day

SPEAKER_09: that's basically two shifts isn't it two eight-hour shifts maybe two and a half shifts in new york city the taxi drivers rent taxis for 12 hours that's why they're so exhausted and on the margins sometimes they're a little cantankerous you can give them some grace and empathy a 12-hour shift in a new york city taxi in traffic i mean come on give these people a break it's a hard hard job but if we think of like a basic 10-hour shift there's two shifts there that means there's seven shifts a week that's 14 shifts it's basically three jobs three full-time jobs right 15 shifts five shifts eight ten hours each okay each robo taxi takes three full-time driver's jobs now most people drive half-time for uber or lyft so it's taking six gig economy jobs three full-time equivalents now you go to a factory you can't work somebody 12 hours in a factory it's just too much it's eight hours maybe they get seven hours

SPEAKER_11: out of them you know with brakes or whatever so now you're talking about three shifts of hard labor times seven is 21 it's really four jobs so humanoid robots will take four jobs when they hit scale and they're like in an amazon facility sorting packages or delivering them self-driving car let's put it at three so maybe it's like you know it's gonna happen fast folks uh is i think it'll be slowly than fast and if that is the case um you're gonna see millions of factory workers drivers and maybe some

SPEAKER_09: painful chore jobs come on the market those people will be able to be deployed into other jobs very

SPEAKER_00: easily i believe construction we need more homes education we need more teachers uh healthcare we need more nurses doctors orderlies emts you know just pick anybody at a at a hospital anywhere i had this epiphany alex during the programming anywhere you have a wait time uh in weeks days to weeks is an incredible opportunity so just think that through when's the last time you had to wait two weeks three weeks for an appointment when's the last time it took two or three days to get through to somebody uh healthcare education construction renovating your home you know pick one of those categories that means there's demand you try to get a plumber to redo your hot water heater you know they might say check with me in two weeks i might be able to fit you in in august end of august right that's where all those jobs are going to emerge and those by the way super high paying jobs super well-paying

SPEAKER_11: jobs so how quickly can somebody learn to put up drywall if they were working in a sorting facility if they're driving an uber or a taxi how long before they could work as a nurse or an orderly

SPEAKER_09: in a hospital i i mean i i don't think these are terribly different jobs i think they're well within people's capabilities so then it just becomes re-education and training all right uh and so at the ai summit we also had um i think three things got passed maybe we can just get into before we wrap up here we can get into the details of what the administration's proposing some of it i agree with some of it i'm unsure of and some of it i definitely don't agree with so i can get into all of those points um and by the way i had no idea what the platform would be i mean i know david's positions david sacks or ai cryptos are i know some of his positions on this because we've debated

SPEAKER_11: them before like training data um states rights training data woke ai um and uh yeah so maybe we'll get into an executive order by the way you know presidents give these things all the time

SPEAKER_09: then they have to somehow go become law and so i was talking to somebody who's on the inside of all this and they're like by the way it's like that's the starters pistol that's like somebody doing a spec and saying like okay now you guys have to do a ton of work so some of these executive orders never materialize into law or into a policy this one is going to this is i think signature legislation

SPEAKER_107: so let's get into it all right so there were three executive orders that came out jason um

SPEAKER_16: in the order from our notes the first one is preventing woke ai in the federal government i gave this a read and it essentially sets rules for ai models procured by the federal government to not include or not focus on certain things just keep in mind this is not saying that you can't make an ai model to your own spec it's just that if you're selling to the federal government these are the policies that they are going to put into place uh this is the one that i was most curious about how they were going to phrase it um and just to cite the actual text a little bit here um in the uh one of the most pervasive and destructive of these ideologies is so-called diversity equity inclusion dei in the ai context dei includes the suppression or distortion of factual information about race or sex manipulation of racial or sexual representation in model outputs and this is the part that really threw me incorporation of concepts like critical race theory transgenderism unconscious bias intersectionality and systemic racism and to me incorporation is a weird word to turn on so i'm

SPEAKER_09: curious if you can elucidate what they're trying to say here i don't know i didn't talk to them about

SPEAKER_00: this i think this is the least important part of all this i think this is just red meat for the base let's call it what it is when you know politicians get elected they have a base right and the base helps them get the nomination we all know the horseshoe theory two extremes woke lunatics on one side maga lunatics on the other socialist communists on one side we're going to have bread lines and we're going to have you know whatever mom donnie is talking about with like supermarkets like that's an

SPEAKER_11: example of feeding the base when he goes into office you always move to the middle right and the middle is like uh maybe um we can create more housing supply maybe we can make it more affordable to take the subway right there are things you can do that are easier to execute so i i see like whenever they do the the ice raids in los angeles that's performative it's not uh productive this is another example

SPEAKER_09: of i think performative as opposed to productive i don't think any of the folks who are in who are building these models are saying how do i sneak in you know uh gender identity politics and by the way you can prompt them so i could put a prompt into any of these large language models say my politics are

SPEAKER_112: x y and z you can just put all that your crazy ideology whatever you like i think that mexican food is better than japanese food it's not it's not true no it absolutely no see and here we go so

SPEAKER_09: you could put in your model that i think the seven the same five ingredients mixed 20 different ways is

SPEAKER_00: an incredible cuisine and i can say you know what i want toro i want incredibly refined uni and viva

SPEAKER_11: la difference so the a person could tell their ai to do this you could tell it to be woke you could tell it to be anti-woke so it's kind of all meaningless so let's put that one on the side i think it's performative it's for the maga base it's like the ice raids at home depot it's performative and it's you know not like the real thing which is closing the border and having and not letting

SPEAKER_09: criminals into the country everybody agrees on that what else is in there that we should discuss

SPEAKER_45: every time you turn on the news it's about ai getting smarter and smarter these models are writing perfect code they're acing the world's most difficult exams and it turns out they're also pretty good at making money that's why there's public.com the investing platform for people who take their money seriously what really sets public apart are their ai powered tools and features check this out you can ask public a question about any stock in plain language and get a straightforward answer if you want to see why a particular stock's price jumped or crashed they've got a clickable ai generate summary right there in the performance chart you can build multi-asset portfolios on public stocks bonds options obviously but hey maybe you want a little crypto in there some etfs i will advise you to try public.com and access industry leading yields like 4.1 apy on your cash with no fees or minimums plus for a limited time earn one percent match on all ira deposits ira transfers and 401k rollovers never too soon to get that retirement dialed in so go to public.com twist today to fund your new account in five

SPEAKER_48: minutes or less that's public.com twist disclaimer pay for by public investing full disclosures in podcast

SPEAKER_16: description yeah so the next one is quote accelerating federal permitting of data center infrastructure this is kind of meat and potatoes uh three things that i think really matter jason there's a there's work inside of this to ease regulations uh the quote here is that the epa shall quote assist in expediting permitting on federal and non-federal lands by developing and modifying regulations promulgated under the clean air act the comprehensive environmental response compensation and liability act and the toxic substances control act then they also want to make federal land available for construction essentially opening up um public land for data center build outs and then there's also this surprised me uh the potential for subsidy from the public purse so the text reads that the secretary of commerce who you were speaking to shall quote provide financial support for qualifying projects which could include loans and loan guarantees grants tax incentives and offtake agreements so essentially we're going to cut the red tape we're going to let you use federal land and we may

SPEAKER_14: even subsidize it great uh let me think that through is there any if we believe if you believe ai

SPEAKER_11: is a race and america needs to win it then using some federal land and subsidizing it uh is what china's already doing so this is all us versus china let's be honest china is pulling out all the stops if you want to build like next to this hydro dam they will block you know the equivalent of what's the most

SPEAKER_125: important river in the united states like the colorado they would literally in china block the colorado river

SPEAKER_11: and be like sorry we need to win ai and put all that power into a giant data center that ran across

SPEAKER_00: the most important wetlands for any creature so we're not going to do that here but easing up the regulations probably a good idea devil's in the details um and i think probably a decent amount

SPEAKER_09: of what's hidden in there that's important is ai data centers in the short term are going to use natural gas there's no way around it there's just not enough time to get solar batteries nuclear and other sources on and they have to be off-grid you're going to have to bring your own power you're

SPEAKER_11: going to have to move your data center to where the power is and so that seems to me to be wise and

SPEAKER_00: i do think we have to win this race i do think there'll be many winners and so and i don't think there should be any by the way i'll just say one final thing on that i don't think you should give grants to anybody everything should be in the form of a loan it should be a senior debt device the the taxpayers get paid back before anybody else plus they get warrants so whatever amount of money you

SPEAKER_09: take from the government 10 of that amount should be given to you in warrants so if we have a billion dollars to open ai or google to build a data center they should pay market rate or some percentage of market rate for the loan it could be half market rate could be one percent who cares the interest

SPEAKER_11: isn't the thing they should give if it was a billion dollars they should give 20 200 million in options how's this for a framework then if open ai goes from 350 billion valuation to 3 trillion which it

SPEAKER_09: probably will or could then we would 10x that 200 we would get 2 billion back plus the original

SPEAKER_18: billion plus some interest that means it would be profitable for the american taxpayer i just i get

SPEAKER_16: a little heebie-jeebie about using public funds to support these companies because i feel like putting aside all the worries about government intervention in the market and all that i just don't want to cement the current winners as the governmentally selected long-term winners because if there's a company that's going to come next year and builds me that blows open ai out of the water i don't want open ai to be able to lean on the fact that the government gave them cheap land regulatory credits and whatever to build out their data centers and then use that to quash other

SPEAKER_11: short competitors so that's where the details come in it's a great punch-up again executive orders are the starting pistol it's not even the rfp so here we go i think we're in alignment let's keep going

SPEAKER_16: all right the next one is the promoting the export of the american ai technology stack what this does is quote built an american ai exports program and this is a package of things like ai hardware ai models that you can sell as a unit to countries around the world that we are friendly with there is a little bit of public money here as well uh the eo says that the economic diplomacy action group didn't know we had one quote shall coordinate mobilization of federal financing tools in support of priority ai export packages so essentially if i don't know um ukraine wants to buy the american ai stack we might subsidize that by offering a loan in some capacity that's more of an import export uh action so i'm a little bit less worried about use of public funds there but to me this makes pretty good sense jason let's create a unit we can sell out to other countries because not everyone's going to have you know the kingdom's budget yeah this all comes back to huawei if

SPEAKER_11: you look at huawei um which is a company that builds like 5g infrastructure infrastructure for telecom they are chinese brand they went around the world and they were really cheap and countries

SPEAKER_09: you know china uae africa latin america and even in europe a lot of countries use huawei's 5g this is

SPEAKER_11: a significant issue because the chinese are don't have everybody's best interest at heart and you can be sure every piece of huawei equipment has a backdoor for the chinese government so if you are germany italy spain like and you're using this stuff for your infrastructure well you are basically saying please spy on us and if you don't then you're naive uh so uh i think america this is the equivalent that could happen with ai we don't want to see all of europe using huawei chips huawei ai models because then all of that power would accrue to the chinese communist party not united states so that's really what we're talking about here and it starts in china if china has an incentive to make you know chips

SPEAKER_09: that compete with nvidia and amd and we don't let them on those and we don't let them have access this technology they will so we want our platforms to win but we don't want to give them the latest and greatest and as howard lutnik said you know part of this like negotiation that they're doing is like oh well give us your top hypersonic missiles china china china's like are you crazy like we're not giving you our best hypersonics oh just sell us like 10 of them so we can deconstruct them you know

SPEAKER_16: yeah and every time china wants to open a business in the us they should have to form a jv entity and only own up to 49 of it and commit to technology trans oh they don't want to do that

David Friedberg: exactly so i mean just reciprocity is what we're looking for here it's a no-brainer

SPEAKER_09: i've had this conversation a hundred times here and on all in the tariff concepts that the trump put out there to begin with were shock and awe and right now the ones that are being executed on by

SPEAKER_11: lutnik uh and besant and the whole crew over there are boring and mundane and effective and in america's best interest so you're a tariff guy now no i'm a reciprocity i've always been a reciprocity

David Friedberg: guy i'm not like we should do oh are you referring to china in particular or the the overall package of

SPEAKER_09: tariffs around 10 countries that we trade with they equal 99 of the issue it's a major power law here it's a

SPEAKER_00: big pareto principle we just have to work it out with the top trade imbalance folks and even trump during his speech he conceded that he's like i don't know if we need to do with many more of these like i don't know if the 180th country which i don't know the name of and i've never heard of we need to have a trade agreement with so again how trump does business just boom explosive crazy everybody covers it and then you know whatever 72 hours later it doesn't seem as crazy and then six months later

SPEAKER_11: the people who are executing it are going to execute it in a very mundane realistic fashion which

SPEAKER_09: is reciprocity that's where we found up so again you you may not like the style but at the end of the

SPEAKER_98: day reciprocity no no i don't agree with that you don't agree with reciprocity no i'm a chicago school of economics guy i'm a free trader okay yeah i mean if you so you think they should be

SPEAKER_11: able to put a hundred percent tax on cars going into japan or china and korea and then we allow

SPEAKER_16: their cars here with no strings attached if they want to have a less effective trade policy than free trade sure they're willing to they're able to hurt themselves but if you want to think about why you might want to agree with me here is that mile down in argentina made very compelling arguments before he was elected president discussing why protective terrorists for domestic industries lead to more poverty in your nation so no i'm going to stick to uh the current silicon valley

SPEAKER_138: favorite outside of the united states melee and uh stay to my free trade principles okay yeah i just

SPEAKER_09: if they're going to put this huge tax on cars coming in to china japan and korea i think they should face whatever they give us just we'll do the same thing you know and that's why if you look at japan or you've been to korea or or even china like there's nobody buying american cars except once in a while you'll see it i saw like three teslas in japan you know this is years ago and it was just rich people who paid i don't know what is what was the current tariff on american cars in japan 50 it's very high yes i think it might be 50 so just how do you ever compete because you've got to ship

SPEAKER_11: the car there too there's like that cost and there's like the you know maintenance of the car so who buys when i was in singapore like who buys american cars there somebody was showing me their

SPEAKER_09: jeep and their and i was like oh you have a jeep yeah you know it cost me like 150 000 to have this tricked out jeep wrangler i'm like a jeep wrangler is like a 50 000 car in the united states tricked out 70 000 so they have it okay anything else in there i think the only thing i can remember

SPEAKER_16: is the content and the training one yeah yeah that's exactly where i was going um this was not in one of the eos but it was in trump's speech and uh we don't spend a lot of time on this jason we've talked about it a lot on the show but a couple of quotes from the trump riff on this quote you can't be expected to have a successful ai program when every single article book or anything else that you've read or studied you're supposed to pay for skipping ahead a little bit um when a person reads a book or an article you've gained knowledge that does not mean you're violating copyright laws not to make deals with every content provider china doesn't do that and i really kind of i don't think trump actually has a viewpoint on this i think this is what his speech writers have put together for him and so this to me is uh one industry setting the rules for everybody here

SPEAKER_102: uh so let's break down the statement right let's break down the statement nice and slow

SPEAKER_09: so first he said when a human being reads a book right uh they don't they're not breaking copyright if they learned from it okay that's true and china doesn't respect ip also true what's not true is what's not said in there what ai is doing is taking somebody's book and then making it so nobody ever has to buy it again and that they can make money from it that's what's left out of it and that they didn't have permission and when open ai was stolen by deep seek sam altman was not happy and you can be sure anybody who has their ip stolen if you were google and your algorithms were stolen you might not be too happy about it and you might file a lawsuit so uh we need to look at this issue and say this is something new so how do you solve something that's new very simple you come up with a

SPEAKER_00: new uh plan and the new plan that i put out is super simple if you want to explicitly use somebody's content make a deal with them and then you can have it be an exclusive deal or not and you can very easily have somebody authenticate their new york times subscription when you log into any of the uh

SPEAKER_09: any of the different language models right you already they already asked you to log in with google and they already asked you to log in with google so you can search your gmail so why can't

David Friedberg: i log in with my new york times or my disney plus account and then it says okay you have a disney

SPEAKER_09: plus account now you can make jedis now you can do generative art right and so we all agree on the output so that's good i always look for where we have consensus we all agree on the output you don't get to make disney characters if you're not disney you don't get to leverage you don't get to take my

David Friedberg: entire book or this podcast and republish it okay so then what could you do you could talk about what

SPEAKER_09: we talked about on the show uh but i don't think you can make a super clip of it or use the entire archive so but if somebody said hey this week in startups is going to get paid uh they have a subscription program it's a subscription podcast great pay for it i pay for financial times i pay for the economist i would love to be able to go to the economist and have the economist say log in with grok log in with chat gpt log in with claude can you imagine if i could log in with my claude

SPEAKER_11: account to those services and then use claude against the ft and e then that's really actually

SPEAKER_00: where this will wind up and the people who do that in a reasonable way will have an advantage against the people stealing that means it's an opportunity it's a business opportunity for everybody that means the financial time and the economist disney can invest more in content and get more out of it and so that yeah and that's where we'll wind up another option is uh what um i asked to have him on uh what's cloudflare is not letting you crawl i don't know if you saw this story yeah paper crawl

SPEAKER_09: is his new concept and uh he came out and said he's against what trump is proposing with the administration i should say we should just say the administration because this is a full effort the administration's position he disagrees with and he's going to block crawlers and he's going to have them pay and the

SPEAKER_00: crawl is going to be in there as well and these two ideas uh what's the guy's name prince is it matthew prince matthew prince's idea can stand alongside mine which is you could have your website i could take the this weekend startups website you could take cautious optimism you could put on there you can crawl this it's a dollar a page every time you come it's a dollar a page that's it and they might say well we're not crawling under a dollar but if it's somebody with a 200 account then 2400 they could say yeah we'll crawl up to x amount and now you've got a royalty system so i call bullshit on a hundred percent that this is not technologically possible it is 100 technologically possible and um is it possible to unravel it and be china no so since that's also true that you can unravel it and that you have to be china then that means we all have to work together not run over

SPEAKER_16: each other let's move on to um how to sell your company or jason as i like to put it how not to sell your company okay uh do you recall the windsurf open ai fiasco that turned into the google buying

SPEAKER_152: part of windsurf and leaving the way we should do the one thing um was uh the jd and i jd and i

SPEAKER_11: talked about immigration i don't know what's worth covering here was there any piece of it that was

SPEAKER_09: worth covering about it oh we did get into microsoft let me just i'll just tee it up i don't know if you have that there the microsoft discussion i don't have that clip so there was a moment where

SPEAKER_11: i was talking to jd about like hey let's put the border aside we all agree on that we're never

SPEAKER_09: going to agree about dragging 20-year immigrants out of the country that we're letting here under

SPEAKER_11: bush or clinton like i'm i'm gonna hold the line on that they should be given a path to citizenship

SPEAKER_09: sorry we brought them in here we had a bunch of joking but the one where we had like an interesting debate is well what about recruiting talent here and jd made a very good point hey i was i got wind of

SPEAKER_11: like this company laying off thousands of people like nine thousand people and i was like oh that's microsoft he's talking about um and then they're also filing for a bunch of like high skilled immigration visas what's going on here um i need to look into it so he he didn't say he had it all wrapped up of

SPEAKER_00: course microsoft's layoffs were across a number of countries it wasn't just america it wasn't just high skilled it was sales people right product managers so it's not necessarily high skilled but he does make

SPEAKER_09: a great point and it goes back to the static team size or doing more with less if you're laying people off do you really have the ability to then lobby for high skilled immigration i do think that's a valid point even though i believe in recruiting the most high skilled people here what did you think of

SPEAKER_15: that moment i don't know if you saw it or not i i think the important thing to keep in mind because

SPEAKER_16: i i've seen people make that point both online and of course at the ai summit i think these are not one-to-one replacements for the people that were laid off these are often an h1b being re-upped for another term so it's not like microsoft is out there being like we're going to fire 9 000 people and bring in 9 000 other people that we can pay less but i do think this conversation is becoming toxic enough for microsoft's brand that satya nadella the ceo had to uh yesterday put out a memo entitled recommitting to our why what and how and in this he discusses this exact thing so i think they're getting beat up pretty badly in the media in political circles for being so uh what would we call it they're just it's shedding people as they make record amounts of money and here's the

SPEAKER_11: interesting quote you see some silicon valley technology firms especially the big firms this is jd say that they're desperate for workers they can't find workers that they have to use oversee

SPEAKER_09: visa programs to find workers and yet at the same time the college educated employment rate for stem graduates in this country seems to be declining wait a second if you're not hiring american workers coming out of colleges for these jobs then how can you say you have a massive shortage in these jobs and by the way you see some of these tech companies where they'll lay off 9 000 workers and then they'll apply for a bunch of overseas visas it doesn't make sense to me that displaced that displacement and that math worries me a bit he makes a good point here and i wonder and i i kind of know from being an

SPEAKER_00: insider for so long here's the thing about h1b visas versus american college graduates h1b visa are going to get paid 30 40 less and because you have they essentially become indentured servants if they don't find a new job within 30 days of being laid off they're kicked out of the country with their family it's incredibly cruel and unnecessary they should have at least six months to find a new job a minimum minimum like it's ridiculous so the people i know who are abusing the h1b visa system and other systems like this i have heard people explicitly in my career say we're going to get these people because we can work them harder and they don't have any recourse you know to call them indentured servitude or slaves maybe a little bit hyper it's obviously hyperbolic but they are less empowered workers and i would say significantly cheaper and less empowered so

SPEAKER_107: jd makes a good point i would say okay there was a there was an interesting interview on a show called

SPEAKER_16: all in uh back before the election and uh one of the hosts i forget who it was asked the then presidential candidate what should we do about high school immigration and uh i think the thing was i'm going to staple a green card to everyone's diploma yes that is my my vision yeah now i know that that has not yet manifested in current uh policy but i think that you're right i think it's it's everyone that i've talked to who hires people or has been an age will be workers i have a lot of friends that have had those visas confirms what you say so what's the solution well take away the stick that companies hold up these people's heads and give them more ability to come here work at a fair market rate and stay because i think we should have every freaking smart person in the world here and that's that's my policy so i think jd here makes what i would call a classic jd point of not actually saying we shouldn't have h1b visas not actually saying microsoft is bad but appearing like a populace that won't actually do anything once in office because he's currently the vice president baby do something if

SPEAKER_18: you don't like this you know the vice president

SPEAKER_159: is as we've seen it's hard to you're you're not the show but yeah we'll see i think he's gonna be

SPEAKER_53: i think he'll be president you have influence you had him on but you had him out for a reason you didn't invite a nobody on stage he wanted to come i think he uh asked to come if i if i understand

SPEAKER_11: correctly i think it's like hey you guys are in town can i come on and we'll talk you know and

SPEAKER_164: continue the discussion i i think but i i wasn't involved in the invite i i just i don't like it when

SPEAKER_16: the the problems and inequities in the h1b visa program become a cudgel to to argue that we should restrict high school immigration in general to this nation yeah because i think we should not that's but again my personal politics yours everyone listening may be different yeah i mean i probably

SPEAKER_09: 90 80 or 90 of the country agree on immigration we just don't talk about it in buckets if you said we're going to bring 25 000 high-skilled people here a year who start companies and if they don't

SPEAKER_00: start a company and create 10 jobs then within two years they lose their visa their golden visa and it had that condition on you'd be like okay sounds reasonable and if i said hey we should close the border so coyotes are not you know sending bad guys and charging people ten thousand dollars and you know all this horrible stuff that happens you probably say okay and that'd be 90 of the country and if i said hey you want to deport the uh like felons from the country who are here legally but yes i agree so there you go like it's like 80 90 agreement on 99 of the issue and the only

SPEAKER_11: disagreement is on what to do with people who've been here for over five or ten years and have made a

SPEAKER_16: life here and that's probably 50 50. so from our friends over on the uh startups subreddit which i read each and every single day this is a question from a person who has worked at a couple of early stage companies and they want to know is it possible that adding ai to your startup too early actually slows you down and they write that having worked at a couple of companies that rushed to add an ai feature either to attract investment or just to stay current with trends but it actually slowed them down so product decisions became more slow uh mvps became bloated and i think that this question boils down to jason when should you add something hot in buzzword terms to your startup to ensure that you maintain your place in the conversation and at the investor tables but also avoid wasting your time and shoehorning any crap you don't need a couple of different pieces here that are important

SPEAKER_09: one of them is should i frame my company as an ai company should i market it should i pitch it as an ai company well absolutely because vcs are looking at the market and they're saying you know these are the companies that are growing the fastest now if it's just ai dressing if you're ai greenwashing

SPEAKER_00: uh then and there's no substance to substance to it well you won't actually get the gains therefore why are you doing it doesn't make any sense so you should authentically uh be thinking about that and if you're if you have a previous company that was a sas based company and you were pitching it as such reframing it and in fact figuring out how ai would disrupt you and you know going there not a bad idea let me give an example let's say you had a sales automation tool salesforce hubspot

SPEAKER_09: something that does marketing and sales you know in a company well you go and try to raise money for that concept people are going to go well that exists already and it's going to get disrupted by ai and they say well how is it going to get disrupted by yeah and you say well i'm an investor it's your job you're the the founder tell me so they have 10 people coming to them saying we're going to do uh to salesforce and hubspot what they did to legacy client server enterprise software before that we're going to make a better version of that than the per seat model here's how it works so you should absolutely be thinking about

SPEAKER_00: that take your legacy product making five or ten million dollars a year let it cook you don't have to change it but then you launch the ai interface the version etc in parallel and you start marketing that immediately which by the way is all benioff's doing he's all penning off does is go on tv and talk about agents and how you know a third of the work at salesforce is being done by agents there is some

SPEAKER_11: truth that ai is not ready to do certain job functions we saw that with uh i think it was clarna that said they were getting rid of all their customer support going a hundred percent ai and six or

SPEAKER_00: seven hundred people were losing their jobs and it was incredible and then they said oh you know what we need to have some humans in the loop here so you can jump the gun on it and that's your

SPEAKER_11: responsibility as a founder is to actually assess if the technology is ready yeah i looked at a lot of

SPEAKER_09: these ai solutions to make versions of podcasts in different languages not ready to translate essentially to us to swahili or not ready you could do it as a proof of concept it's i don't think it's ready yet i don't think the people listening to us in japanese as done auto dubbed is ready yet now it might be ready later this year but it wasn't ready last year when i took the pitches i don't know where

David Friedberg: it is now that's such an interesting idea i love that who doesn't love it like we should have a

SPEAKER_11: we should have this week in startups in the top 10 languages yep and they should automatically and you can

SPEAKER_09: be sure youtube i know they are working on it youtube already dubs if you go and type in mr beast in spanish you can find the dubbed version of mr beast officially done by youtube people don't know this but youtube is doing that for mr beast i don't have any inside information here i just have what some youtubers were telling me so maybe i do have inside information what some youtubers were telling me that they were not using ai for this they were using voice actors now i don't know if that's true or not

SPEAKER_138: but let's play it and see if you found it did you find it so yeah so this is mr beast in espanol um

SPEAKER_09: and how did you find it by the way is it on the youtube espanol site or is it in the drop down menu

SPEAKER_15: and you just change the language so i literally just said mr beast in spanish okay and this is the first

SPEAKER_16: thing that came up and it's completely translated so the description is in spanish this this is i i

SPEAKER_179: lived underground for 50 hours and uh listen to so this is not just a translation i don't think

SPEAKER_183: jason this does feel more like voice acting to me it's voice acting so they got that's how big of a

SPEAKER_09: a franchise mr beast has is that youtube is apparently paying for this experiment and i guess for youtube it's super important for their growth in those countries therefore and type mr beast in japanese mr beast in french i wonder if that even exists if they're up to japanese and french because

SPEAKER_11: those would be culturally very different markets and much smaller markets sub 100 million or way

SPEAKER_48: under 100 million because it would be the subset of people in those countries is 100 million people

SPEAKER_16: in japan and france might be 70 million french i don't see anything similar for french or japanese i think it's just because spanish is such an enormous language yeah so i i don't know if it's public or not

SPEAKER_09: but there you have it folks so to this person's back to this great question you could look at the solution from first principles test it with customers and then just decide right you can just decide if the market is ready for that feature i do think there's another point he alludes to here which is

SPEAKER_11: distraction as this ai comes in it is so distraction distracting because an intelligent person can look

SPEAKER_09: at what's happening and very easily extrapolate that it will work the way i got to podcasting early the

SPEAKER_00: way i got to blogging early the way i got to zines early and the way i got to angel investing early and syndicates early in my career is that when presented with a new idea and this is my big unlock or hack

SPEAKER_189: for people sometimes i just say yes to an opportunity and i assume it's going to work now i said yes to

SPEAKER_09: friend feed i spent a lot of time on friend p feed by paul uh brett taylor no paul boucher bouquet uh like blue height blue height thank you like fahrenheit paul boucher who created gmail worked

SPEAKER_00: out y combinator he created friend feed he sold it to facebook it was like ajax the page would automatically be updating as you would be posting to it i spent like a ton of time on that for a year i did a ton of time on google plus as those things grew they fizzled out they didn't work google buzz i spent a lot of time on that google buzz could have beat facebook if they weren't so um concerned

SPEAKER_11: about the privacy issues and they were a little more freewheeling google but they they folded because

SPEAKER_125: they got too many privacy issues and zuckerberg didn't care about privacy the people at google rightfully were like oh yeah this is crazy there's all these fringe problems with google buzz um

SPEAKER_09: and so you just have to think these things through but if you assume something's going to work you could hit but most times you won't ai presents the ability for you to believe anything is possible we're sitting here talking about these robots like are those robots going to go pick up your lunch and bring it back to your house right now if they if you said i want a nice coffee that robot you were showing earlier the five thousand dollar one is that going to go get it and

David Friedberg: successfully do that no not not this year but but you immediately assume next year it would but it

SPEAKER_00: might be five years from now so the timing for entrepreneurs is so critical is it one year is it five can your company survive for five years oh by the way um scholarships are open a lot of people have been asking me to come to the oil and summit as is tradition um i set up the scholarship program in the early years and the team agreed to keep doing it you can go to the website and apply for one if you're one of my founders and you know me uh i might have a little juice and be able to help a friend or two uh get their scholarships approved it's probably a one in ten chance that your scholarship gets approved because there's a limited number of those tickets but if you are one of my peeps and you did apply for one and you can't afford the full price ticket i might be able

SPEAKER_09: to help so if you're one of my founders go ahead and apply for a scholarship and let me know you did

SPEAKER_137: what is the scholarship how is it like 80 percent i think it's like 80 off i think it might be

SPEAKER_11: 1500 instead of 7 500 so the event loses money on the scholarships because i think yeah no i'm not

SPEAKER_66: surprised but it probably it's profitable overall you and i know the events game and this is probably an

SPEAKER_11: overall good event for the business but all in summit has been profitable since year one and it's significantly profitable and then all in plus the tequila plus the other events you see us doing um we don't have advertising on it but it's a significant business and this week in startups

SPEAKER_09: and i'm going to probably do two more podcasts on the this week in startups brand in the next year so stay tuned for that folks uh he's uh cautiously optimistic cautious optimism.substack.com

SPEAKER_00: dot news that news oh you have your own domain name yes sir and you're still on sub stack not beehive

SPEAKER_151: i'm on sub stack for a little bit but i'm working on some cool stuff behind the scenes so that might

SPEAKER_197: change in the next couple months what i mean you're thinking of your own platform or being part of something uh let me sign let me sign some contracts first oh okay then i'll tell you excited for you

SPEAKER_200: there you go i signed up it's 100 bucks a year you can support let's get him 100. or it's free if you

SPEAKER_102: want to just uh not pay um i think you should make it not free i think you should just make it only pay

SPEAKER_202: because you've got good insights and it's better to have a thousand people paying a hundred bucks than to have 10 000 people paying nothing and you know whatever stay tuned stay moving that direction

SPEAKER_204: we'll see you next time bye bye x.com alex x.com chasing x.com twi startups bye