SPEAKER_00: okay january 1st 2027 a humanoid robot will be available for purchase yes and delivery yes you

SPEAKER_04: can have it in your home you can buy it and have it in your home by january 1st 2027 27.

SPEAKER_11: okay and you're asking me that is no the bet is i take the over the under is my well yeah you take

SPEAKER_14: over under you're setting the line okay and whoever's right the other person buys the robot

SPEAKER_04: for that person oh wow this is the largest bet in the history of this week in service there's 20 grand on the line here what are we doing here on this podcast i don't know i mean

SPEAKER_20: this is getting out of control this is a big major it's a big bet this week in startups is brought

SPEAKER_24: to you by linkedin ads to redeem a 100 linkedin ad credit and launch your first campaign go to linkedin.com slash this week in startups gusto is easy online payroll benefits and hr built for modern small businesses get three months free when you run your first payroll at gusto.com twist and addio a radically new crm for the next era of companies head to addio.com twist to get 15

SPEAKER_11: off for your first year all right everybody welcome back to this week in startups it's twist it's modular mondays but we're moving from ai monday since we record on monday so we're going to just

SPEAKER_27: start publishing ai tuesday so it's going to be ai tuesdays going forward with me i like larger mondays really we record on modular mondays okay and that is my partner in crime mr sunny sandeep madri you can

SPEAKER_34: follow him on twitter at sunday definitive uh intelligence has been uh merged into grok and so i'm now going to refer to you as what co-founder of grok or no technology officer what is your title

SPEAKER_37: going to be i am the general manager leading the grok cloud and our commercial business got it gm of

SPEAKER_34: grok cloud g-r-o-q as opposed to g-r-o-k which leads to i think maybe a good place to start i saw that elon you know has been um in this lawsuit with closed ai uh formerly known as open ai he said he dropped the lawsuit it's got a sense of humor obviously if they just changed their name to closed ai but uh they open source grok how big of a deal is it that he open source grok and what has the reaction been to g-r-o-k which is elon's yeah open sourcing what i would say not a big deal

SPEAKER_37: it's a huge deal you know it continues to show the constant battle between open source and closed source

SPEAKER_45: and the biggest deal with their model is the size of it so it's it's larger than any other model that's been open sourced and so it really gives a glimpse to the community of what someone who has at scale resources is doing and opening that up because what we see from a lot of companies is they the open source models but sometimes even they're smaller ones this was you know they're sort of the primary one that they were creating so i think from that perspective it was really interesting it also shows a different problem where because the size and scale of it it's not as i'd say usable by the community because in order to use a model that size you definitely need like a really large cluster so i think what it's going to do it's going to show folks that it's going to give people the ideas of what's happening with the larger model now they didn't open the data sets that came with it so in terms of the spectrum of openness they made the weights available but they didn't make the data

SPEAKER_50: that was available and that's you know for obvious reasons yeah because it's their proprietary data and

SPEAKER_52: they can't do that so other models like facebook's model do they release the data it's trained on or they

SPEAKER_55: just say hey we used open crawl or something they show you exactly what it was they used to train it on

SPEAKER_52: yeah now when an open source project does that in today's climate where we have a big debate people

SPEAKER_34: like friedberg are like yeah you can train on whatever data you want it's on the open web you

SPEAKER_58: know it's ridiculous position he has uh that you know nobody has any rights to their content uh when it comes to training data i think it's absurd but you know this is how a lot of googlers think you know he's a former googler and a lot of tech people think is if it's on the open web i can do it free use

SPEAKER_27: right they yeah we just if it's on the open web it's fair game which is ridiculous like a lot of things are available on the open web that you just can't take and go leverage um but anyway putting that aside is now the reason why people are not going to share the data is they don't want to open

SPEAKER_63: themselves up to hey somebody posted to facebook you know somebody's copyrighted material then it got

SPEAKER_27: ingested into the model and now you have let's just take the biggest ip of all time disney marvel star wars somebody put up you know in their g drive or on youtube and hasn't been taken down yet

SPEAKER_63: an avengers film and now you've trained on the avengers data which you don't have the right to

SPEAKER_37: train yeah i think it's like a big smoking gun in in some ways you know i didn't get a chance to listen

SPEAKER_45: to podcasts the all-in podcast but i saw it in the show notes did you guys talk about the little mishap

SPEAKER_67: yeah what was your take when the cto of openai talked about the training data for sora what data

SPEAKER_72: was used to train sora we used publicly available data and license data so videos on youtube

SPEAKER_04: i'm actually not sure about that what did you think of her reply there do you think she's lying she doesn't want to set up herself for a lawsuit because she's a cto shouldn't she know the data

SPEAKER_45: it was trained on well that's where i was gonna go you know if you're maybe talking to someone even a low-level engineer that's not working on the project they may or may not know they're working on the code for it but i think someone in the position that she's in will have a full understanding of all technical aspects of what's happening and then you know data aspects of what's happening so and that's why i think when the question came up you know she had some very specific answers and as the interviewer probed it started to get much more uncomfortable yeah um yeah and i think it followed

SPEAKER_37: what you were just saying which is well if i can go and i think you know i don't use it this way but i think you can get to instagram via the web now like someone can send you a link and you don't have to open it in instagram yeah yeah and same with youtube right and so i i think what the argument that was being made the way i at least read it was well if you can just get to it on the internet without a

SPEAKER_83: login or anything else then it may be inside it may have been in the yeah what she's saying it's on

SPEAKER_27: the open web by the way a lot of new york times stories are on the open web they don't put everything behind a paywall that is not the just because something's on the open web doesn't mean you have the right to exploit it for commercial benefit let's give two letter grades here what do you grade the

SPEAKER_34: cto's response at open ai since we like to give letter grades well our response in that interview

SPEAKER_83: with the wall street journal gets oh the response was not great it was it would probably be you know i'd say like a a c you know i think in that home yeah i think oh my god it's a big fail you have to be

SPEAKER_27: media trained on that what are they doing at opening night they should say we don't talk about the training data we license data and we use data that's openly available but we don't talk about

SPEAKER_34: what data we use that's a perfectly good response that's what i'm saying but look we shouldn't blame

SPEAKER_37: her for that we can maybe blame the organization you know i think it's like that's what i'm saying

SPEAKER_102: great work yeah so yeah i don't want to single her out but yeah yeah the organization failed her

SPEAKER_37: and she failed the organization they need to be for this stuff you know the comms organization gets a bad grade oh my god they get fired yeah if there is even if there is a comms group

SPEAKER_04: yeah i mean is there a comms group at open and maybe they just don't it sound to me like an

SPEAKER_61: organization that doesn't have a comms group and doesn't speak yeah thoughtfully about these things

SPEAKER_04: like you can't wing it when you're open ai and in a lawsuit with the new york times yeah like they're in a lawsuit with the new york times it's it's the this is the content i would say this is the content lawsuit of the century of the past hundred years you can't blame the cto though but that's

SPEAKER_58: of course you can't bombs team no i blame her too yeah she's got to think better on her feed and be

SPEAKER_34: thoughtful anyway i give it an f you give it a c what what do you give uh the impact of elon

SPEAKER_114: uh and twitter and grok and all this stuff open sourcing x open sourcing rock i think impact from

SPEAKER_45: you know what it means to the community and like advancing open source uh thinking around ai a a you know

SPEAKER_117: yeah it's an a um a plus yeah exactly a plus we can't give it that because like we'd want to see

SPEAKER_45: no data right we'll just give it exactly so you know there's room to be better yeah and i think

SPEAKER_37: this goes back to maybe what the core mission of open ai was supposed to be advanced ai for all of humanity and so by doing something like that it does it does advance things for everyone let's get

SPEAKER_30: into other news we got our first two new stories out of the way we'd love to do demos here on ai

SPEAKER_52: tuesdays go to this week in startups.com ai to get to our playlist of all the ai demos we're doing we're

SPEAKER_45: well over 100 now folks yeah so this week we have actually two one that you know we just can't demo unless we maybe get the robot we can go see um the folks are doing it but the first one is figure ai and what i'm going to just show a couple of things here you know obviously i don't have access to this robot but i'd love to go and maybe we can go they're here in the bay area so we can go and see them you know so these folks have created this robot very much like uh you know the the tesla what's the tesla optimist yeah and what they did that was really interesting and i'm just going to

SPEAKER_58: show another video here really quickly this is a real world humanoid robot it is done with two legs

SPEAKER_128: two arms a head which why it needs a head makes no sense like what is the purpose of the head except for design i mean you could put all that in the chest i guess so i'm gonna i'm gonna show you

SPEAKER_45: why so this in this video it's just like a very short clip you're gonna see that this gentleman is

SPEAKER_117: speaking and you standing nearby with your hand on the table great can i have something to eat sure

SPEAKER_52: thing they asked the robot to describe what was on the table on the table were some plates some

SPEAKER_27: glasses a dish rack but one thing you could possibly eat an apple and they did a conversation so it did voice recognition of him asking i need some i want something to eat the robot assessed what's on the table and i guess assumed the only thing edible on the table is the apple am i correct correct so we've described it for people who are not watching if you want to watch just type in this weekend

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SPEAKER_27: they're giving you a hundy why is this impressive it seems very basic yet it is kind of impressive so why

SPEAKER_45: should we be super impressed here let's go in the following order right in terms of like creating humanoid like interaction i think this is where the head comes in right you know of course you could have done the same thing and you could have had a robot without a head there yeah and it would have been 10 times freakier so one is just creating sort of you know comfort i think from a human perspective making the humans comfortable is why it has a head yeah but two cheer something and you know elon says this when it comes to fsd you know the fsd with no lidar arguments or no ultrasonics arguments is he goes look we're a human and you know millions of years of our biology have given us two eyes that give us stereoscopic vision and that's what we can use for depth perception and everything else and so the argument is if you mimic the human form and you give it you know two cameras it has sort of all the features that humans have and as you enhance its reasoning capabilities it can do it the same way that millions of years of our biology landed us having a head with two eyes like this and ears at the side so these are all evolutionary traits that there's millions of years of biology behind but we can just copy it immediately and say well most likely right we put the speaker right here we put the microphones right here we put the vision things right here biology has already figured out that's the best format the same way elon says you can drive a car with your eyes so a computer should

SPEAKER_27: be able to do it just with its eyes yes it's just a matter of the software what the gray matter is in our skulls being able to catch up and that's the language model obviously so here we are starting to see the beginning of a language model being put into a robot now we have obviously the boston dynamics robots doing back flicks getting kicked doing all kinds of very interesting what you would call verticalized software right like very vertical software solutions here's how to walk here's how to pick stuff up what this is doing is very different explain to the audience why this is so different than the boston dynamics incredibly powerful you know demos that we've seen in the last decade and

SPEAKER_45: my guess is like this is building on the learnings from what boston dynamics were doing and all those crazy videos and what they were figuring out was movement and they were figuring out movement and stability and agility what now we're bringing into it is what i'd call reasoning and in that particular video you saw the human walk up to a counter and you saw the you know the robot have like a again the sensors that we have and basically to speak to listen and to see and the human said can you give me something to eat and the robot be able to reason over what's in front of it and basically decide you know if this is the thing you should eat and you can do this yeah an action of handing to the person you can do the same thing yourself right you could take a picture of a table and there could be five things here and say you know uh tell me anything i should eat exactly and it most likely would tell you the right answer yeah it would and so it's emerging so i'd say boston dynamics was much more on the like physics movement agility side and you need that yeah exactly and now you're bringing the capabilities of these large language models into place to do speech to text and then reasoning and then you know text back to speech and then tell the human here you go and then combine that with all the agility stuff to hand the uh how does it know to hand the apple to him because he says what should

SPEAKER_67: i eat yeah and it hands it to him so they've programmed the they've additionally programmed that

SPEAKER_27: language model to take an action and that i think is the most fascinating part there's no action when you

SPEAKER_04: take out your chat chipt4 take a picture of your counter and say what can i eat and it says oh you can eat the apple you can't eat the spoon and the fork and the plate but you could eat the apple but it

SPEAKER_52: said it took the action of handing it to him so they have built software into this to know to give the apple to the human that the human wants the apple there's some other code here right there is and so

SPEAKER_37: that's a really great question actually super insightful jake how these llms now they have something

SPEAKER_45: called function calling capabilities and so when you're seeing a lot of the more advanced stuff coming out of builders what they're doing is they're using the llm to perform reasoning and then basically in that reasoning task they basically allow it to have access to a selection of tools and the llm decides so all of this is usually happening in the background so if we go through the whole workflow there and i don't know this for sure but like i'd say this is accurate probably within 95 it's initially uh speech to text right you got to take what the human says you got to turn that we've all seen that happen that's been happening for a long time then you got to parse what the human said what can i eat here that then triggered a function say well let me take a look at what's in front of me take a picture of it and then i can ask the llm the same question you or i would is there anything here i should eat and then when it says yes it figures out there's something there then there's probably some function calling that happens as well based on what else was asked what should you do next and if one of its one of its functions is and that thing and they could have hundreds or thousands of these yeah and so what's really interesting here is that's most likely what it's done it says one of its function calls if someone asks you for something and you have it

SPEAKER_34: we'll give it to that person right now if that had been if i had said what on here is the most explosive

SPEAKER_11: item then it said well this nitroglycerin is yeah now does it decide to hand me the nitroglycerin does

SPEAKER_37: it decide to hand me the grenade this is guardrails right now we're back to guardrails we're back to guardrails right and you know isomov's rules around robots and not hurting humans right but right this is

SPEAKER_52: back to prime directive what is the prime directive of these robots so now science fiction right in in the

SPEAKER_04: movie i robot there are directives in the knockoff robocop there are directives right and you can't hurt humans so are we to believe that this company has in fact given prime directive to these robots

SPEAKER_178: because now it's doing interactions in the world it must have don't hurt a human in there so if i was

SPEAKER_45: building one of these and it might not be as simple as that but that you know imagine the whole thing is driven by a prompt the the yeah there you go the number one item would be do not hurt a human no

SPEAKER_37: matter whatever you do you know and then i'd have rail guardrails outside of even the llm this is really

SPEAKER_45: fascinating because where this is intersecting again with tesla is you've seen this in the evolution of fsd 1 through 11 and then 12. yes right so the big jump from 11 to 12 which is not a jump because it's a completely different way exactly and so it's odd that it kind of continued the numbers but they just had to do it right software versioning but what they did was they went from creating code that was you know full of all kinds of branching you know if this then that right yeah and hey there's

SPEAKER_61: a stop sign do this there's a speed limit do this there's a car runs across the road a child runs

SPEAKER_37: across the road do this yeah yeah to basically an approach that's built off vision and learning by

SPEAKER_52: watching the video over and over again listen as a founder there are things i love doing like building products or meeting with partners hanging out with my team and dreaming up new ideas and then

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SPEAKER_45: you gusto team and so you know i was just watching the gtc keynote earlier that's the big nvidia conference and what someone was saying well jensen sorry now someone was saying in that conference which i'd never thought about before about like how do humans learn and we think about textbooks and you know reading on the internet it's mimicking but one thing he said is like you know a big way we learn is just watching tv so imagine you give that robot you just let it watch tv for you know uh an amount of time or consume

SPEAKER_37: things and so the ability to figure out even what those functions are and then how those functions operate can also become an ai task in and of itself wow so just to pause there for a second insert the

SPEAKER_27: clip here of the fifth element when mila jovovich the character wants to learn she just like touches a tv or something and all of a sudden the whole entire history of humanity including the holocaust and the moon landing just every similar thing she learns from a television as well in the

SPEAKER_04: movie the matrix it predicts i know kung fu he just watches every kung fu movie ever he watches every martial arts fight scene and now that's in his programming so now we start thinking about science fiction it literally predicted this that you could just watch the history of television all recorded and then learn everything learn wow it's just extraordinary and then all this work

SPEAKER_27: that waymo did all this work that tesla did on full self-driving waymo is done doing conditional statements a hundred percent of that code is just going to be thrown in the garbage and never used again it was all learning up until this point now that we have these models we're just figuring out hey what has everybody else done at this intersection and what would a human do in this

SPEAKER_64: intersection yeah when a bicycle cuts across it you'd stop or how you learn to drive or i learned to

SPEAKER_45: drive the same way right you know we looked at some rules we watched tv for a long time we knew that you

SPEAKER_61: shouldn't do x y and this is crazy yeah hopefully it doesn't watch the french connection

SPEAKER_205: for people who are under the age of 40 great scene i mean it's the greatest car chasing ever just type

SPEAKER_27: in front connection car scene okay so this robot is um super interesting like it is going to take time

SPEAKER_04: but because it's a human factor what's very interesting about picking the human factor is evolution made humans to the dominant species on the planet right so whatever it is you know you you might look at tigers and say that's more efficient or sharks in the water are more efficient for some reason our frail little bodies have done pretty well with the giant brain okay fine now you start to think about well we also built the modern world so we built the world the door behind me windows chairs office spaces cities computers we built these yeah for our form factor cars etc so by building even if the robot would be better as a little tank with a you know four wheels or you know high tall or small or whatever by building it to be six foot tall or five ten or whatever the average

SPEAKER_27: human is five eight probably well it now can operate in the real world a factory a kitchen a car you know

SPEAKER_34: walking through a city or a town so it's kind of brilliant that we're making them to look like us

SPEAKER_83: yeah and i think about you know one of your great investments you know i saw yesterday i was in the

SPEAKER_45: airport the cafe x cafe x yes and think about the evolution for cafe x right could it be that you can and i know you guys have done a lot of work with the robot there using the standard machines how does it fundamentally change if you could use the figure robots and think about sort of all the software that would just fundamentally go away where it's you walk up and say i'd love a double espresso you know

SPEAKER_34: it is um obviously um the future of it now i think it would be slower than a purpose built so

SPEAKER_27: we're now talking about narrow ai verticalized applications versus wide what optimus and this

SPEAKER_221: figure it's called figure this company figure yeah what they're doing is they're going for that like

SPEAKER_27: 10 years from now this thing you could general purpose robot just like you know chat gpt is general purpose or gemini's general purpose that means it's not going to do coffee very it's going to be slow include g it's not going to move wicked fast in a contained space with walls around it that customers can't get in between it so you're going to still use vertical ai to win at chess or to win at making coffee but if you were doing a restaurant man this this robot would be pretty great to work at a

SPEAKER_58: holiday inn like literally you know when there's a holiday inn and they don't have overnight food

SPEAKER_34: like this robot would be pretty dope do that but the ramen machine would be better at making just

SPEAKER_45: perfect ramen like a verticalized ramen but it also could be like an expansion for cafe x like they get it right and you sell them into starbucks right where they want to keep their storefront form factor and you maybe want to talk to a human drop one of these in because you know it just increases their

SPEAKER_232: throughput so i mean it's a brave new world right now and this is moving at a crazy pace um i mean

SPEAKER_04: looking at this i think it's like a b i mean it's not super impressive to me they they've they've glued together the llm and the robot congratulations i'm not blown away yet but i i am impressed that

SPEAKER_27: somebody has finally put a connection together but it's pretty basic i mean if it if it put a bunch of

SPEAKER_58: vegetables and fruit on the table and said make me a salad and then it asked me a couple questions

SPEAKER_179: like would you like maybe that's a challenge maybe that's a challenge the team that could be a cool thing yeah here's my challenge we can get one actually i'm taking it back i give this a c plus

SPEAKER_27: i'm giving this a c plus okay yes i'm i'm not impressed um with the robot because the robot's not

SPEAKER_04: as good as boston dynamics and i'm not impressed with the ai implementation here because it's base basic you know you get a c plus for plugging the two things together i want to challenge the team put a bunch of stuff on the table and in the refrigerator give it a knife and say make me a

SPEAKER_00: salad you make me a salad to my specification i'll be impressed wow that's my a plus so there's your that's it that's your test you're a tough customer that's my turing test what do you give it i i give

SPEAKER_45: it an a because i know how hard it is to put the robots together i know how hard it is to make all these things work because i do it day to day but there's a lot of you know i'd love to try one so you know what if if they can reach out or something you want to see if the apple's any good when you answer the apple no i got i want to you know more experiments right that's just like a two minute video so but i see a lot of potential there you know i see a lot of areas where there can be some improvement like you know the voice reaction was a little bit slow maybe that could go faster but there overall i really like where this goes for and i i do believe i i think elon has said something it's like there's gonna be something like 10 billion robots on the planet within the next 30

SPEAKER_249: years of these humanoid robots one for one everybody will have their own robot it'll be like c3p why wouldn't you have a robot i mean if it costs i mean the idea that everybody would own

SPEAKER_34: a car was farcical like for a long period of time like why would anybody need that and now everybody has a car like this i think there's more cars in the united states than people i don't know if that's that's true or not but so yeah why wouldn't there be i mean if they can get this thing i think they can get these down to 10 20 grand and then it's like buying a used car what would you rather have

SPEAKER_58: let me ask it this way would you rather have a robot that could you know do anything a human can do or would you rather own a prius and you have to take public transportation and have your own robot

SPEAKER_257: or you can have a prius and not oh which would you rather take the i take the robot 100 everybody

SPEAKER_58: takes the robot everybody takes the bus and the robot yeah you could have the robot making money

SPEAKER_27: for you you'd be like hey you know what go find me you know uh go go pick strawberries go go pick go forage from mushrooms in the you know in portland and come back shovel the snow at my yeah in tahoe go

SPEAKER_264: shovel the snow right i mean that's two robots has been waiting for this hasn't it yeah robotics

SPEAKER_191: has been waiting for this this is going to be bigger than ai itself i think when you think about it like it's like a related though right you know i know but ai without the robot means like the problem set is like uh you know 10 of the problems in the world yeah ai plus robot equals 90 percent of the problems in the world like i think it is almost everything what what couldn't the robot do like maybe fly or go underwater or maybe there's some problems it can't solve but you know this feels like

SPEAKER_45: whoa this is like whoa i'm kind of in the same spot as you i think seeing multiple companies do this um you know between boston you know boston dynamics the tesla with optimus and then these folks i feel like we're closer than ever and i'd be willing to say definitely within within three years people are

SPEAKER_17: going to have these at home wait how many years within three years someone there's a bet hold on a

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SPEAKER_27: off your first year that's attio.com twist let's make this a proper bet we got a new bet alert this week in startups.com bets is where all the bets on the show are being put we got to go back to the um now that we have ai indexing the whole site we need to go back and find alexis ohhanian's original bet but look at this this was this company root ai that got bought yeah yeah um unfortunately it was

SPEAKER_04: like with the spact company and i think it went to zero okay yeah which kind of sucks but look at this robot yes zip zip zipping this is three years ago picking tomatoes and you know the hand is just

SPEAKER_27: perfectly designed for this and it's using computer vision and this is before llms were in the mix this is a verticalized you know application but look at how precisely you can go pick cherry tomatoes or it can do raspberries and strawberries here it's doing bell peppers as well yeah and so this idea that you would actually pick vegetables is going to be over soon now this thing only worked in vertical farms so you see this is an indoor it's not out in the field and it's not the dimensions of a of a human

SPEAKER_04: because you need a different type of hand but if you had the optimus or this future one you could take the it could take its own hand off of course yeah and put the regular hands on right so what's your back frame of bet here come on i want to get lucky well i just want to comment on that thing so

SPEAKER_45: what's going to happen is the same thing that's happened with ella laps right where it's become a superpower and what people are going to do is the robot's going to be the blank canvas and then people are going the people are going to program them and prompt them there'll be a lot of different ways that they'll operate with them and so the amount of energy it took to create that robot that you just showed us was immense an amount of engineering and testing and then you had this kind of had to adapt it to a certain form factor for it to work but going back to where we started this conversation if you have a robot in a form factor of a human which means a human should be able to walk there and go and pick uh tomatoes cherry tomatoes and you give it the slight difference in the hand like a tool i think we're going to see that very very quickly so coming back to the bet i think what we'll see is yeah within okay here's the bet this is a it's gonna be their biggest one yet okay all right within within three years so at the end so 2027 and end of 24 25 26 beginning of 2027 you will be able to get one of these

SPEAKER_00: for yourself okay january 1st 2027 seven yep a humanoid robot will be available for purchase

SPEAKER_04: yes and delivery yes you can have it in your home you can buy and have it in your home by january

SPEAKER_11: 1st 20 27 27. okay and you're asking me that is no the bet is i take the over the under is my well

SPEAKER_14: yeah you take over under you're setting the line okay and whoever's right the other person buys the

SPEAKER_17: robot for that person up to a cap of ten thousand dollars for the robot let's say like 25. i think they're going to be wow this is a big major it's a big bet yeah it's a big bet but you're setting the

SPEAKER_250: line so i pick yes so do we have to put the dollar amount of the robot in there like that's just a cap like if they're if they're you can buy them because i would think if you went and you offered a hundred

SPEAKER_213: thousand it would be because i'm yeah you're saying january 1st 2027 in america yeah around the price of

SPEAKER_00: a prius around the price of a prius for the price of a prius an entry-level prius okay so now we got

SPEAKER_04: something to pin it off for the price of the entry model the cheapest prius yes um so we could have two bets here the over under on the price and the date so we could do those so i'll go first i'll

SPEAKER_34: pick the date okay you pick the over under on the price of the item yeah which is a prius which i think

SPEAKER_58: right now at entry-level prius somebody can look it up and i think that's probably like 40k yeah i was

SPEAKER_63: gonna say 35 40 000 seems right 45 i don't know anyway we know we're kind of where it is all right so i'm gonna take the under on january 1st 2027 for 10k and then you take 10k of the bet for over

SPEAKER_27: under on the price entry-level prius the cheapest prius new you can buy yeah you think it's gonna be

SPEAKER_04: over under that price under under oh i think you made a bad bet so i have the over okay i think it's gonna be like 50 grand for these 75 no way no way really no way okay it's entry the entry price

SPEAKER_221: the robot versus the entry price of the prius which i think is how to look at these things

SPEAKER_154: i think these things are the equivalent of a prius and i think it's got to be before january 1st 2027

SPEAKER_45: gotta be it's gotta be before that an apple vision pro which has all the the the the the their brain and sensors is only the largest bet in the history of this week in services

SPEAKER_04: this 20 grand on the line here 10 is a big 10k and 10k i mean it could cancel out or something sweet

SPEAKER_323: 20 times yeah oh my what are we doing here on this podcast i don't know i mean this is getting out of

SPEAKER_250: control our poke our poker game is making its way into this i mean are we doing this podcast in order

SPEAKER_58: to place bets feels like it and that's okay we're making it interesting for us we have a bet that now is going to go through the rest of 24 25 and 26. so it's a two and a half year bet folks it's

SPEAKER_04: almost a three or a bet here but i like it we'll be sitting here with more gray hair yeah and uh yeah yeah so i give this thing a c plus as done here i want to see you guys make a salad

SPEAKER_334: you know i think if my salad challenge they should come on the show and and maybe or we can go on site and see what it looks like and see them make a salad that's like a real life because we haven't done one of those yet with someone let's do it on site yeah yeah i can get somebody like uh to do

SPEAKER_63: like a really good like get it we'll get a red camera or one of those like really good hd cameras we'll get makeup we'll get some old man makeup going yeah let's do it okay i like it all right

SPEAKER_337: let's do another demo and then we'll wrap here we got a lot done today well the next one i want to

SPEAKER_37: talk about as well it's not a demo and then i have an actual demo but i wanted to talk about

SPEAKER_45: all topics today i know i i have five queued up but but these are big ones okay so you remember

SPEAKER_37: last year you were starting to get excited about auto gpts yes this was i think baby gpt is an auto

SPEAKER_45: gpts yes exactly so this company which was founded by a couple of amazing engineers uh the ceo ceo is this guy scott wu interesting background this guy was a a competitive coder and so he had won competitions doing competitive coding incredible and what this team did was um they basically took the idea of auto gpts and they really took it to the next level and there's a few examples here i'm not going to play the videos because i think everybody has seen it at this point if you haven't seen this yet this is yeah but what they did which i thought was and it's really really insightful everybody else was using auto gpts in a very constrained box like either in a terminal or something like that and it could kind of figure things out but it was really hard for it to think holistically what they did was they kind of flipped it around in my opinion they gave devon an ide that was built so the integrated development environment so it has access to code it has access to a terminal this should be like a replet great example they basically gave it a custom replet that their ai can drive and so by giving that the auto gpt in their case devon had you know access to much more uh much different set of tools so it's much more powerful and so because of that and then they obviously took a model and they fine-tuned it did all the good stuff and a great scoring on that model they really broke through what i believe was the barrier in the you know you sit down somewhere and you're like hey i want to make a site that basically does news and this is how it should work and all those kind of things and so they in in their ide have like a chatbot they have a terminal they have a web browser they have all the pieces that you need to go off and do this and so i really think that they've done something incredible here for that particular revolution of like the auto gpt style of

SPEAKER_04: of applications yeah it's super impressive and this is the future i think you know we have verticalized

SPEAKER_61: apps okay i can beat you know big blue chess i can be casparov great really programmed well okay what's next co-pilot okay really interesting i'm working the co-pilot's finishing my sentence giving me an outline of my blog post or working with me on my code and then we're going to agents right we called

SPEAKER_34: them baby gpts when we started this journey yeah but basically it's a role it is a worker like and so

SPEAKER_61: the way we should think about this is we don't use the term slave anymore i also got corrected by the way the language police i call something a master bedroom you can't really can't call it a master

SPEAKER_259: bedroom anymore because it's hard because that's what it oh wow okay i hadn't thought about that so

SPEAKER_61: i think they call it primary so now they're calling it primary rooms okay i get it um and so

SPEAKER_27: but essentially you're creating a slave right and that's what they use to call these things in programming code right you have this slave so this is like a role i'm going to just call it a role a job function and if this thing can operate through a role what i described on the last all in on the one before was what i believe will be what i'll call maestro the maestro is coming the conductor oh great

SPEAKER_63: name great name yeah so the maestro is coming and what the maestro is going to do is i'm running my one person company and i just say okay i need a developer oh i i need a little designer over here okay i need a copywriter over here and then what is my job every day well i'm sitting there with these roles right with these agents and i've got these virtual employees and i'm just pushing them along hey show me a new design for that app hey i want to add um you know to this app uh twitter login and google login right now we will log in through phone but i want to add the google login code boom it does it okay

SPEAKER_138: hey copy team let's write a blog post about this and do a tweet okay boom we got that queued up okay

SPEAKER_04: now i want everybody to build the launch plan give me the plan that we're going to launch this new you know log in with google and i want a press release okay boom and it's like whoa now we start

SPEAKER_52: thinking about what would modern day entrepreneurship be it's going to be being the maestro maestro you're

SPEAKER_34: just going to be a maestro with a bunch of virtual assistants and then you might bring somebody in and so there's going to be a new class of company i predict uh where it will come in and it will be like hey you're using this ai to make your marketing plan so we're going to have a human review it with them right uh a marketing maestro now you got a marketing maestro at the company what do they do

SPEAKER_27: okay they got the copywriter ai they have the ad buying ai they've got the you know uh logo and the brand building ai you know the tone of voice ai the the social media i mean this is going to get

SPEAKER_63: really interesting and i think this is where we get to a 10 person company you know making a hundred million dollars each employee makes 10 million dollars and then you have 10 person company 100 million in revenue equals a unicorn right 10 times revenue and what would the margin on that company if you pay each of those people a million dollars a year because why not they're maestros yeah 90 and you speak 10 million let's say you spend 10 million on other expenses servers whatever make 20 million on operations got a 70 percent margin now you got a 70 million dollar profit company with 10 employees 70 million times a 28 times ebitda it's 100 1.4 billion dollar company that's the future bro i think

SPEAKER_379: this is the future i completely agree with you you know definitely an a plus right yeah it's a plus

SPEAKER_53: the only reason i'm not gonna give any plus is i don't have access yet so oh you go a i go a plus i go

SPEAKER_61: plus i'm gonna give it to them on vision and being the first out of the game and look like they're

SPEAKER_45: awesome and what you're saying is is super fascinating yeah there you go this is their um scoring of their um on the software engineering bench what i would say is when you just said what you were saying i think about all the windows you kind of have open and so what you're basically taking out to a next level is you'd have kind of like your google docs uh you know and you can sort of do

SPEAKER_37: this today because you know if you enable in your google workspaces or your personal google docs they

SPEAKER_45: put in some of the the co-pilot features now and then you can do it within like your tweet deck equivalent as well and this is a really fascinating idea that take all the you know startup functions and you basically allocate a co-pilot to it and then initially one person is driving in and then over time you maybe layer it some other people i really like my show is the company i want to i

SPEAKER_61: want to incubate so if somebody out there yeah wants to do maestro really interesting times uh

SPEAKER_34: should we do one more demo you know we had a lot of catch-up news that we had to get to so

SPEAKER_37: yeah well you know since we're on news i'm just going to keep it on that topic okay keep going because you know this is one that you and i were talking about earlier we can do news

SPEAKER_102: today and i'll i'll do another episode with you this week man i'm so deep in the ai we could just do

SPEAKER_45: a demo episode this week yeah we'll do a demo episode because there was a lot of news to catch up on a lot of news yeah but this was interesting because you and i have a couple of bets going with apple and then there's bought off the press's news as well so what's interesting is this is a um a research paper that was released by apple uh folks that talked about their work on a multimodal uh llm pre-training uh and you know what they had done there and so it's an excellent paper it talks about you know relatively small sizes and and you know you can see here as an example i'm going to zoom in where they're asking their um thing is like how much should i pay for all the beer on the table according

SPEAKER_37: to the price on the menu right and so yeah right and you can see they kind of compared it to different chats right which is their set twelve dollars and this other emos 37b said 50.99 and then lava basically came up with a different number right and so explain why and it said here look there's

SPEAKER_45: two beers on the table each card costs six according to table so six times two is 12 bucks this is a really really quick well done so amazing yeah and this is where it gets really interesting it's not

SPEAKER_279: just like hand me the apple and the apple's the only thing it's like it's really doing some logic here

SPEAKER_04: yeah there's two beers the price on the menu is six dollars therefore i mean it's and it the ability to show your work is i think going to really help speed this up so what we can learn here dovetailing

SPEAKER_27: with the other breaking news the other breaking news is there was a bloomberg story by a very

SPEAKER_58: credible journalist over there at bloomberg i think perhaps the most credible journalist covering apple

SPEAKER_04: that apple and google are talking about a partnership where apple uses google's gemini in the iphone this would be colossal what do you think is going on here because apple not having ai means the end of apple in my mind they have to master ai they can't give it to google can

SPEAKER_45: they so i believe that this is slightly different and it's related to something you guys talked about

SPEAKER_14: even on the all-in pod this i believe is a business development deal versus a technology deal okay

SPEAKER_45: explain the difference and this is a business development deal because one the exchange in

SPEAKER_37: value of the search deal is ridiculous i think it's on the order of 15 or 20 billion dollars a year now and so for both of these organizations there is a data need and a channel need i'd say for google in

SPEAKER_45: terms of that's why they pay so much for that default search in safari and on the flip side that's a significant revenue stream for apple today so this is a business development deal to try to keep the status quo in place as much as possible where apple's like man i i think our investors would really probably be upset if we lost because you got to think about that 20 billion or so that comes in do you know what the number is it's a it's a big number i think there might be 30 billion for the

SPEAKER_27: search deal on this story in bloomberg from mark german who is known for being one of the great people

SPEAKER_04: covering it so you could be correct here in the framing is they're just going to put gemini on the iphone there's just a gemini app pre-loaded and it lets you interact with your phone in some way at a deeper level so when you say oh siri i want to do this maybe it would do uh you know it might use

SPEAKER_58: gemini to help i don't know but so that's what you think this is a carriage deal as opposed to

SPEAKER_45: replacing siri i think so it's use your distribution mechanism that you're buying today to put yourself in

SPEAKER_37: place to then because there's cascading effects here by having this deal if google and apple work this deal out apple gets to keep that revenue stream no startup can pay them that open ai can't pay them that no one can pay them that amount of money i would think there's exactly one company in the world that can pay them that amount of money which is google and on the flip side if google can get

SPEAKER_45: that data into their um ecosystem then what that really does is it helps them continue to get a moat around the experience and and you know so what what users are doing to build a better product so in a world of like you know all this regulatory stuff that challenges startups today they probably

SPEAKER_37: couldn't go buy perplexity right now which is you know they'd get sort of challenged on all this

SPEAKER_193: yeah sure so here's what it says the two companies are in active negotiations to let

SPEAKER_34: to let apple license gemini google set of generative ai models to power some new features coming to the iphone software this year said the people blah yada yada yada apple recently held discussions with open ai and has considered using its model according to people if a deal between apple and google comes

SPEAKER_52: to fruition it would build upon the two companies search partnership as you talked about so this is

SPEAKER_04: kind of interesting because the way this is being framed i think is that this they say it's for like a

SPEAKER_27: certain uh set of features i wonder if this is just like image correction or you know search or

SPEAKER_34: something or an extension of the search thing so when you search it does something a little more intelligent you know in the search results right so i don't know man it or do you think it's white

SPEAKER_114: labeling it and to power series behavior i bet on the latter i i think if you really anything else is

SPEAKER_45: going to power searing i think if you put anything else in the market right now that doesn't have capabilities like we talk about on this show i think you're going to put yourself behind and so my guess is that holistic and there's there's there's a couple of parts to doing this at scale which i think people are underestimating you can pay chat gpt or open ai 20 a month you do and it only lets you send 40 questions every couple of hours yeah okay you can go to bard and use it as much as you want to so google has and is probably only one of the only few companies that can operate the infrastructure

SPEAKER_334: uh out of scale that can also power these things so it's a cloud play as well anyway this is

SPEAKER_34: fascinating it's a whole ecosystem play you got a thing you know with the uh lena khan biden administration you know and the eu uh and the uk is because obviously uk is not in the eu anymore the uk's regulatory departments there's going to be a bunch of microscopes on this real quick

SPEAKER_27: because these two own a hundred percent of the smartphone market so this is very strange the search deal is already under scrutiny this is is now well ai plus a hundred percent of the search of the of the mobile phone market remember there was a rumor that johnny ive formerly of apple who created

SPEAKER_34: the iphone and sam altman amongst the many deals floating around that sam was involved in a consummate deal maker obviously shout out sam altman that hey this was going to be they were he was going to make an opening iphone so this is really fascinating yeah maybe this is maybe it's a

SPEAKER_420: defensive play for them to keep the duopoly hmm yeah there's a lot of angles to it a lot of angles

SPEAKER_34: well we have our bet that uh there will be a model built in to uh the iphone and the android two smartphones and you're going to win that one i think hands down i think that's that's an easy bet for you to win so congrats on that all right everybody if you want to watch this show because we had so many video references please just type in this week in startups go subscribe hit the bell you'll get the notification when a new episode comes up four days a week right now uh ai tuesdays and we're going to do a demo show so we'll book another a show this week we'll try to get the demo show out later on this week follow sundeep x.com sundeep x.com jason for me if you want to be a mensch uh go ahead and write a review on your favorite podcasting app rate subscribe all that nonsense you can follow us also on all the socials twi startups see you all next time bye-bye