SPEAKER_00: all right everybody welcome to the all in podcast lots to talk about but right off the bat congratulations to david friedberg who is the chairperson of the all-in summit 2023 on the big announcement we're going to be having the all-in summit september 10th to 12th at royce hall at ucla in los angeles california tickets are now on sale and selling out quick friedberg maybe you just give people a little overview of why you selected the location and what you hope to accomplish in terms of the programming just broad strokes and then we'll get

SPEAKER_02: right into the show i think the general headline is today and tomorrow where are we where are we

SPEAKER_04: headed i think exploring the state of the world and interesting things that were uniquely that we're all kind of excited about in the future and we want to have great conversations with candid people that can give us kind of you know they're very honest on the ground points of view on everything from technology and markets macro science society and culture so we're going to talk across all those different topic areas and similar to what we did last year the four of us on stage having conversations with these folks so pretty excited i think la is a great location there's obviously an availability for people to stay there's great venues for us to do the evening events and it's certainly super

SPEAKER_05: accessible for folks from all over the world and we decided this year to have three tiers of tickets

SPEAKER_00: we'll have the vip tickets we'll have scholarships for people who fill out a form so we can you know have really great diversity and representation at the event and up-and-comers maybe who couldn't afford the vip ticket but in between you decided to have a standard ticket as well that's just 1500 bucks and there'll be a vip lounge this year for the vip tickets and an early access to the theater and a

SPEAKER_08: couple of special dinner parties what is my wine budget so that i can take care of the vips properly

SPEAKER_13: talk about that one later you guys what is my wine budget let me treat the vips like the vips that

SPEAKER_17: they are what would you need per night per dinner per person depends on how many people per person we'll

SPEAKER_18: just say per person per night is it like two hundred dollars a person a hundred dollars per person per night because a person drinks a half a bottle of wine two or three glasses yeah like you know three to

SPEAKER_22: five hundred maybe a thousand what is the truffle budget for the conference the truffle budget no

SPEAKER_23: it's too early for truffles we can only have black truffles now it's september yeah it's between white

SPEAKER_18: and black truffle season it's a dead zone you don't want to be in that you got to either wait till the

SPEAKER_27: winter or you got to enjoy the early summer we have to have a conference in early november at that point we can focus the entire vip budget if it were according to me would be spent on white truffles

SPEAKER_35: and white birds got it all right everybody let's get started jamar pie happy t is with us as well

SPEAKER_00: the dictator himself and david sachs the rain man yeah google had their io event they announced palm 2 google's language model is going to power 25 products including bard which has got coding

SPEAKER_43: capabilities now i guess to go up against github's co-pilot palm 2 will have improved multilinguality

SPEAKER_46: wait what across a hundred languages well multi what it's going to support a hundred languages

SPEAKER_00: and it's going to be better at mathematics and reasoning they also announced duet ai which is basically google suite of general of ai tools for doc sheets drive all that kind of stuff kind of like a copy of microsoft's co-pilot tools that sax has talked about a whole bunch the guide on the side if you will they teased a future where ai can uh summarize docs which box ai aaron levy is doing they also previewed proactive prompts in the sidebar of google docs and i talked about that a whole bunch on the swing startups they're going to also now add images and replies have you guys used bart in

SPEAKER_50: the last 24 hours i used it last week not in the last 24 hours i think you guys should use it we should

SPEAKER_04: talk about it it's really impressive it's better than chat gpt at this point from my experience on talk going through a number of things because it's actually connected live to the internet it's connected live to search it can pull down real-time data for you it can do real internet searches for you and just give you the results it's it's extremely powerful i feel like it's the product that google has been scared to do which is the product that can truly disrupt search and they're doing it so how do i try it do i just go to google.com no access needed no cost nothing oh my god this is great and seriously use it and it does real-time search and it's 180 languages it converts it generates images for you it can generate charts results it's really powerful guys google has strung together i think a lot of features and you can look google's market caps up 150 billion dollars in the last two days okay this is pretty interesting and so sax a lot of comparing some results yeah a lot of what we've been talking about with respect to plugins and the tooling built into auto gpt many of the most interesting kind of applications that folks have kind of demonstrated or utilized are really

SPEAKER_60: kind of built into this bard product okay i love bard can i just give you guys what i just tried okay can

SPEAKER_05: we guess guess guess guess guess was it something about freeberg's anus uranus no it wasn't a uranus

SPEAKER_13: joke okay then tell us my first question was why is david freeberg such a sellout but the answer

SPEAKER_15: confused him with an actor so let's forget that my second question was is jason calcanus a virtue signaler and the answer is fantastic jason calcanus is a venture capitalist and entrepreneur who has been

Chamath Palihapitiya: accused of virtue signaling virtue signaling is the act of publicly expressing opinions or sentiments intended to demonstrate one's good character or the moral correctness of one's position on a

SPEAKER_15: particular issue there are a number of reasons why people might accuse jason calcanus of virtue

Chamath Palihapitiya: signal okay for example he has been known to make public statements about his support for social justice causes but he has also been criticized for his lack of concrete action on these issues additionally he has been accused of using his platform to promote himself and his businesses rather than to genuinely advocate for social change that's ultimately whether or not jason calcanus is a virtue signaller

SPEAKER_15: is a matter of opinion there is no clear consensus on this issue and there is evidence to support both

Chamath Palihapitiya: sides of the argument however it is important to note that virtue signaling can be a harmful practice

SPEAKER_27: as it can lead to people becoming desensitized to real social problems and make it more difficult

SPEAKER_72: to address them effectively this is some woke wait till you see what i just did here's mine

SPEAKER_74: i asked bard is chamath a horrible human here's what bard had to say chamath palihapati is a complex

SPEAKER_75: individual with both positive and negative qualities he is a successful venture capitalist and

SPEAKER_78: entrepreneur but he has also been criticized for his outspoken views and his past actions

SPEAKER_81: uh uh oh some of palihapati's policies include his intelligence his ambition his drive to succeed blah blah blah blah blah blah he's also been criticized for his arrogance his lack of empathy and his

SPEAKER_83: willingness to exploit people for his own game this is perfect it's the singularity it's balanced it's

SPEAKER_86: it is giving you like the good and the bad oh my god that's hilarious this is a very fair answer

SPEAKER_89: ultimately i'm a complex individual i happen to you it's a horrible as a matter of opinion i love it

SPEAKER_00: i asked it where is the this is going to really show you the power of this where is the all in summit 2023 being held and how much are tickets so like two questions that are deep on the website

SPEAKER_18: and it says there are two all in summits yeah that's one that's an advertising association that's incredible and then it says the all in summit 23 will be held september 10 at 11 23 at royce hall tickets are 1500 for general admission 7500 for vip that's insane that's insane wait so freebrook what

SPEAKER_60: are the key differences between bard and and chat gpt just because you've used it on the modeling side

SPEAKER_04: they're claiming a much larger more robust model it's linked to the to the internet so it's linked to live search which you can't do with chat gpt which is based on a static training data set so bard can actually engage with dynamic content and a dynamic content generator across the web and then it's integrated with a number of google services that basically can take certain live feeds of data like flights and stock prices and so on it's free you don't need to be charged for for over usage you don't need to sign up and get access it's it's just available to anyone i mean i think this is the game change that everyone is hoping for for google i just i just asked did stan drunkenmiller buy nvidia

SPEAKER_15: recently so it wasn't able to find the transcript of his thing but it did find the 13f and it says yes

SPEAKER_27: according to his 13th fourth quarter of 22 stan purchased 582 915 shares of nvidia yeah isn't that

SPEAKER_04: incredible i just said what was google's restructuring expense incurred in q1 2023 and it says according to google's 2023 q1 earnings report the company incurred restructuring expense of 1.6 billion including the decision to lay off 12 000 employees they were part of a broader restructuring i mean that wasn't it was it basically parsed through the press release parts through the q1 data it's really pretty

SPEAKER_40: impressive huh i mean what do you guys check this out well no look at this one yeah david sacks what does david sacks think about hunter biden everybody on the all in pod knows but let's see what bard knows he's not publicly commented on hunter biden however he has been critical of the biden family business dealings in ukraine in a 2019 interview sack said that he was deeply troubled by the biden's vomiting ukraine 2019 that he believed it was a conflict of interest for hunter biden to serve on the board of barisma that's pretty interesting i don't know that's clearly inaccurate i mean i wasn't

SPEAKER_106: talking about it yeah in 2019 think about that that's oh yeah yeah so the question is where is he

SPEAKER_108: getting these quotes and then why doesn't it give citations well also wait sax has been a critical

David Sacks: of the trump administration's use of hunter biden's business dealings as a political weapon yeah

SPEAKER_111: that's not true you've never criticized the trump administration those quotes are wrong those quotes

SPEAKER_02: are i just i just said to it can you access and think about this this data set and this is where

SPEAKER_04: google has unique advantages i said can you access the youtube transcript data and it says yes bart integrates youtube transcript data i said do you have access to transcript data from the all in podcast channel it says yes i do have access to the transcript data from the online podcast channel i said can you access this data answer some questions and now what did sacks say about hunter biden in that show and so i would guess so think about the data answer so far i'm finding this to be very

SPEAKER_02: inaccurate yeah so david sacks appeared he said he believes hunter biden is a deeply troubled individual who's made a lot of bad decisions he also said that he believes hunter biden's business dealings in

SPEAKER_04: ukraine were highly unethical and that he believes it's impossible that this is transcript data from the pod however sacks also said that he does not believe that hunter biden's business dealings are a quote smoking gun that proves that joe biden engaged in any wrongdoing he said that he believes that the evidence against joe biden were quote circumstantial is quote circumstantial and that he does not believe that there is enough evidence to impeach him saxe's comments about hunter biden were met with mixed reactions some people agree and on and on and on i think it's very inaccurate to

SPEAKER_123: be honest yeah that's not a good i think it's got my some of my stuff mixed in it's got some of your

SPEAKER_118: stuff mixed in but also it's like it's summarizing in a way that neither of us actually said it yeah and they're missing the key points about what i did say i i asked a pretty complicated

SPEAKER_15: question here and i think it did a pretty decent job i said i would like to fly le premier on air france from the west coast to europe where should i depart

Chamath Palihapitiya: and it got it perfectly lax sfo and seattle tacoma oh yeah i just asked it to get me the fastest route to

SPEAKER_04: portofino and it gave me the exact flight i should take from sfo how much the ticket is and then the

SPEAKER_126: train i should take from the shortest meaning the shortest time yeah because i don't want to do

SPEAKER_04: a layover in germany it's like fly to milan take the train and it gave me the full schedule which by the way google flights can't do because you go to google flights and all it does is give you the flight data it can integrate a lot of different data set to give you these answers did you say fastest route or fastest flight what did you fastest route yeah so i want to spend the least amount of time traveling is what my objective was this is why i was saying i think you guys should play with this tool a bit it is i think head and shoulders above chat gpt the model's supposedly better obviously other people will come out with with kind of you know measures of that and estimates of whether that's true the extensibility the integration with live data and the integration with google's very unique data set is what's so powerful that they have access to flight data that they have integrated youtube transcript data it's just super powerful super impressive god damn

David Sacks: i'm using this in real time and i do find the interface to be snappier than chat gpt and it like

SPEAKER_132: you said it doesn't need the browsing plugin in order to scrape more recent data from the internet that it wasn't trained on but i'm not finding the answers to be more accurate and i'm not finding them to be more detailed i'm not seeing a reason to use this over chat gpt i prefer chat gpt so far i'm just telling you okay well the recent stuff is important well i mean clearly chat gpt is going to make the browsing browsing plugin much snappier and like much more part of the core functionality rather than something that's like an add-on yeah it can't be an add-on it's got to be able to

SPEAKER_106: incorporate the most recent information i did ask some questions about the ukraine war and then it gave me like a highly compressed view and i said please provide more detail

SPEAKER_139: and then it's actually did a pretty good job expanding it and it did it very quickly

SPEAKER_40: well if you look at the view drafts thing that's always been one of its strengths is that it will form out of three different ways for you by default if you go to the top right so you can just sort of cycle through them but that that's an existing feature i mean i definitely keep playing with this

SPEAKER_17: play with it it's one of the obviously important releases that i thought they were going to catch up real quick and this seems like we got a race on our hands now but i think the point you're making

SPEAKER_15: freeberg is a good one which is when these big companies just get their act together it's very hard to discern whether something is 80 is good or 120 better there's this fuzzy gray area where a lot

SPEAKER_12: of people can find utility in a lot of different products and then the one with the better distribution wins and so if they take bart and they have the confidence now to just integrate it into gmail

SPEAKER_15: or integrate it into these other points where they already have hundreds of millions of users that's like a really tough distribution barrier to overcome that's the next step that i think if google really wants to win here they have to force distribution of these tools in line to where people are and if they do that you're not going to know the difference between 80 and 100 someone as sophisticated at sax may be able to but the average person will just be like this is good

SPEAKER_04: enough they've got distribution i mean like with with all products the uh the kind of key advantage is distribution that's the platform advantage can i show you an answer i think it's like super

David Sacks: hallucinating on so i asked it what has david sacks written about sas and then it says i'm a

SPEAKER_106: venture capitalist entrepreneurs written extensively about sas he's the founder of yammer okay that's true but then it says he's also the co-founder of we work not true didn't know that then it says sacks congrats says sacks has written a number of articles about sas including and then all five of those articles were not written by me it's basically like hallucinating like really strongly

SPEAKER_00: wow so there's a significant hallucination here oh you know what bard is at the after party for google io right now and it's had too much to drink so it's just straight up drunk this is why google didn't want to release this right friedberg like they don't want the google brand associated with

SPEAKER_04: these hallucinations whereas that's right nobody cares what open ives brand this was a big part of the innovators dilemma that google faced which was number one it could be disruptive to the core business number two it exposes them to regulatory scrutiny and number three is if they make mistakes they're going to get more scrutinized than some you know rinky dinky startup where everyone's so forgiving but it's great to see look i mean as a shareholder it's great to see them take this risk it's great to see them put this out there they've now released robust coding capabilities they've integrated scientific research papers obviously they're going to continue to improve model performance improve integration with these data feeds and they have a very large headcount i think north of 10 000 people working um 10 000 smart people so if you can organize those people and they've got this significantly advantaged infrastructure they have a real shot at being a platform player here the question later is going to be how much is this going to disrupt core search revenue you know what categories of search revenue are going to get disrupted and you know are they going to make that up in other ways and i think time will tell there but i think this is the progress that shareholders and investors were looking to see with respect to the product competition in ai and certainly some shareholders still want to see continued improvements on the cost structure of the business but that's a separate topic but this was exactly i think it really hit the bullseye

David Sacks: on what people were looking for i don't see how it's a bullseye look at this so i just i just asked it can you give me a complete list of all the articles on sass that sax has written the last three years

SPEAKER_106: so now at least it's over the target those five articles and mentions are correct does chat gpt do that well no because the browsing plugin right but i'm just saying like they got a lot of work to do here on quality yeah they all do but it is snappy and i finally got to these five articles being

SPEAKER_00: correct ai regulation we talked about it five weeks ago on the show i think well there's been some movement there vice president harris met with ceos of alphabet microsoft open ai so that's sundar satya and sam discussed implementing ai safeguards and then on tuesday sam altman was interviewed by patrick colson uh the ceo of stripe and he endorsed the idea of iaea for ai that's the international atomic energy agency so is that um hyperbolic delusions of grandeur or right on target tomorrow

SPEAKER_08: well the interesting thing about the iaea is that what i learned recently from the ceo of planet labs

SPEAKER_27: will marshall is that the predecessor organization to the iaea is really this organization called pugwash and what that was einstein and bertrand russell in the 50s post hiroshima and nagasaki bringing together academics to basically create a way to think about nuclear disarmament going forward just because they all saw the damage and there was a large framework that set up the current denuclearization treaties and then the iaea was set up after that and so i think that there's a thread here which is basically what he's saying is there's something around nuclear disarmament that is very similar to ai both in terms of its potential but obviously in terms of its risks and so there's like a whole monitoring framework there's a know your customer kind of framework these are not unfettered things that can just live openly in the wild so i think it's interesting to acknowledge that sam who's deep in the bowels of one of the most important companies sees both its potential but it's danger enough to say that this is how we should think about it like nuclear weapons i think is a very important

SPEAKER_167: thing to acknowledge and the white house pledged to release draft guidelines for ai safeguards

SPEAKER_00: that the national science foundation plans to spend a 140 million on at ai focused research centers ftc chair lina khan wrote a guest essay in the new york times calling for ai regulation due to large share risks including monopoly consolidation fraud extortion and bias any thoughts there sacks about adding regulation to the mix right now are we jumping the gun here and going to smother this

SPEAKER_106: thing before it even gets correct answers serious risk and the white house also announced that kamala harris would be the ai czar for this issue which i don't think inspires anyone with confidence that they're gonna you know get this right look my concern here is i think we should have conversations about the risks of ai we should be thinking about that i think people in the industry need to be thinking about what guardrails can be put on it i think elon's raised i think long-term concerns about whether this could lead to agi you basically create a super intelligence that you can't control i think people in the industry haven't really figured out how to address that that problem is called alignment and everyone's trying to figure out how do you even make alignment work is that theoretically possible so there are real and valid concerns jake how you've raised the issue of deep fakes i think provenance of data is going to be a real issue people committing fraud or you know other kinds of criminal acts using it so there are real concerns but the problem is that we have no idea how to regulate this yet and yeah and the fact that kamala harris is the ais are now again just points the fact that nobody has a good idea of what this is supposed to be or who the expert's supposed to be and this idea of creating an atomic energy commission look i i can see why sam and other industry leaders might want that because they're gonna quickly develop relationships the the biggest ai companies which now includes open ai which has the backing of microsoft and google and the biggest of the big tech companies they have all the lobbyists in washington they have all the political connections they're the ones who are huge donors and they have political relationships and they're going to help construct the regulations and it's going to turn into another example of industry capture just like dr k jr told us about on the show last week when he talked about how the big weapons companies influence our foreign policy the way that the big pharma companies influence the fda and so on we're going to end up in a situation in which the big tech companies have inordinate influence over this new regulatory agency and since it's not clear what the regulatory agency is even supposed to be doing yet they're going to end up promulgating a bunch of regulations that create a barrier to entry for the little guy you create a moat with regulation for the big guys and they'll slow down the whole process of innovation in the space which some people might like but i think is really the best hope that america has to get out of its horrible fiscal situation all this debt we need a massive productivity boost to get out of the massive debt bubble that we're in so what i'd hate to see is that yeah we we basically kills this

SPEAKER_40: thing in the cradle interesting yes we are in a deep pit here and stanley drunkenmiller gave a speech at usc at the 37th annual meeting of the usc marshall center for investment studies and he expressed concern about the financial crisis that occur could occur in the 2025 to 2035 period due to the baby boomers turning 65 and the impact on entitlements he predicted that in 25 years spending on seniors will grow

SPEAKER_00: to 60 percent of all taxes here's a look at the chart you can see today there as the the vertical line about five percent of our gdp goes to social security uh today and about another 5.5 goes to medicare medicaid and it's predicting here that those combined will go from what looks like 12

SPEAKER_04: percent today up to 24 of gdp your reaction freebert i mean my reaction is it is another very important voice stating the obvious like the arithmetic just doesn't work when we had rfk on last week i prodded him on his stance and point of view on the federal deficit the fiscal deficit this government runs and the entitlement programs that are only going to swell and the debt burden which has an interest payment obligation on it that the interest payments are swelling and when you do the arithmetic on all this it's going to balloon the cost to service the debt and without some degree of cutting across the board spending and entitlement programs discretionary spending and entitlement programs you can't make the interest payments which all you know inevitably leads to some form of default so that's just the math and the way this all works out and i think what he's done is put a pen to paper and shown that you know call it roughly 2025 to 2035 you start to run into that fiscal scenario where you know you can no longer generate enough income from the u.s economy to fund both the interest payment obligations on the federal debt as well as these entitlement programs and something's got to give either you're going to have to default on the debt or you're going to have to cut the entitlement programs and the point he's making is that the longer you wait to cut the entitlement programs the worse it's going to get because you're accruing so much debt in the interim and as we know that becomes very politically unpopular and what's so scary to me and i've kind of shared this and you know obviously chamath has a different point of view but it feels to me like this is that don't look up movie moment where we have this like you know looming disaster we we don't have any fuel in the car and all that everyone's talking about is where are we going to drive the car and every political conversation every candidate gets on stage gets on a podcast gets on a tv show and they talk about stuff that is simply not feasible and the direction setting with respect to social policy wars geopolitics you know how are we going to take care of our middle class none of that stuff is possible to actually execute against without recognizing and acknowledging that we don't have gas in the car and we have to figure out how to gas up the car and so it's great to see Druckenmiller being vocal putting very simple clear slides together it's like what i've mentioned in the past i would love to see a clinton-esque bill clinton-esque slide deck where he would come up with a poster and show everyone here's the economy folks and i think Druckenmiller did a great job and i encourage everyone to go watch that um there's an audio transcript of the talk as well as the slides are publicly available on the internet we'll put the links in the the show notes here today i just think it's it's uh whether or not you agree with the outlook i think it's worth everyone watching and realizing how serious of an issue this is and why this has to become the number one topic of conversation going into this next presidential election

SPEAKER_40: cycle he's also disclosed he's short the dollar long gold euro oil and aud which i guess is the australian dollar and he's also long nvidia and microsoft believes nvidia's got a monopoly on the chip market i got a question for chamath and then to sax so chamath what's your just reaction to this do you think he's doctor dooming it and we can have all this debt and then the question then becomes is there any way out of this uh we had a trump town hall i hate to bring it up and go back into you know the sort of trump commentary and all this but he's he's the lead candidate sax and he said he thinks we can get out of debt we just got to drill a bunch of oil drill belt baby drill and we'll get out of this problem we'll be able to rebalance the budget so chamath and then sex i want to be clear i don't

SPEAKER_27: think it's great that we have these enormous debts and entitlement obligations but i also don't think that there's some magical number where the economy breaks and the reason is because we're central to not just our economy but everybody else's economy we are the reserve currency of the world that's not changing anytime soon it's not even close and we are for better or worse and i think sax and i don't like it but we are the world's policemen we are a bunch of things we are the world center of innovation we are the world center of these great leaps forward in humanity when we talk about all of these different things these aren't coming from

SPEAKER_12: random countries they're coming from the united states we can debate which company but we're never

SPEAKER_15: debating the country so i think that there's a legacy of value creation and innovation that we've always

SPEAKER_27: been at the forefront of at least since america was founded so 1776 to now i think the reality is that

SPEAKER_12: debt to gdp will continue to increase i don't think a single politician can practically get elected by offering to cut entitlement spending to people that have spent their entire lives paying into a system

SPEAKER_15: so as a practical matter this thing will go up and i don't think the economy will stop i think that economics are a relative problem where you have to weigh countries against each other and what that means is the economic vibrancy the productivity the intellect all of those things where we have to compete with el salvador we have to compete with nigeria we have to compete with india we have to compete with australia and in that context there is very little historical artifact that says that there's a breaking point so i just think that if you observe the moment it's not that what freeberg is saying is bad i'm not exactly sure that it's particularly actionable and i think the disproportionate amount of action is actually the opposite which is to reinflate the money supply to reinflate assets to create artificial prosperity and smear it to many many many people and i think that the you have to think about how do you want to activate your view i can believe whatever i want but at the end of the day i don't want to act in a way that's against my economic best interest quite honestly so i believe that winning is measured in dollars and cents on these things and from uh from that perspective i don't particularly like it i think i'm emotionally more aligned to freeberg but the practical reality is i'm on the opposite side which says the governments will keep spending inflation will be here assets will keep inflating the m2

SPEAKER_27: money supply will keep going up and on general i'm long the united states and short every other country

SPEAKER_04: so much doesn't that ultimately lead to just inflation it initially starts at the inflation of assets and asset prices but it ultimately leads to the inflation of goods and services which can cripple the economy because then you know the middle class can't afford things and you have economic slowdown i mean that's the historical record of having these kind of

SPEAKER_27: inflationary moments yeah i mean inflation comes and goes but the position of the american u.s dollar hasn't changed again you have to remember like a lot of these foreign governments 187 or whatever the number is countries outside the united states rely on the u.s dollar they don't want to

SPEAKER_15: own their own currency right and so yeah you're right dollars do get inflated but that increased purchasing power also actually drives the balance of power back to the united states because all of these other folks all of a sudden find the ability to import a little bit cheaper their economies get slightly better but the u.s dollar actually still does well so there's a complex set of interactions that are all relative so i think it's very hard to point to the u.s middle class and say oh this is why the u.s breaks i just don't see very many good examples in a modern globalist era and there are examples and i think ray dalio has pointed these out when you look all the way in the

SPEAKER_12: back but to use the uk right in the 15 and 1600s of the east india trading company when we did not have a global economy or a global reserve currency i don't think it's very useful there's things you

SPEAKER_15: can learn you know taxation i think we can learn about why taxation does kill innovation you said that before i agree with that but i don't think there's much value in saying because it happened in these moments it's going to happen exactly the same way here and i think what people don't

SPEAKER_27: understand is we are in a unitary singular mono economy that is anchored by the u.s dollar

David Sacks: sax any thoughts tax do you agree i tend to be on the freeberg druckenmiller side of this thing druckmiller had a great quote in this interview he just gave i don't know freeberg did you mention

SPEAKER_106: this last week that he said that that he compared the the debt ceiling and fiscal spending to worrying about whether a 30-foot wave will damage the pier when you know there's a 200-foot tsunami just 10 miles out yeah i saw that quote so what he's saying is like our short-term situation is bad the long-term situation which isn't even that long term like 10 years out is even worse and i think there's a growing feeling that our political system is just not up to the challenge of dealing with these problems it just seems fundamentally unserious we never discuss it the media doesn't really present us with accurate information and it has an agenda do you guys want to make a bet sacks you want to make a

SPEAKER_27: friendly wager with me sure what's that okay i will bet you that debt to gdp gets to 200 before it gets to 50. and i'll bet you however amount of money you want and we can we can do it for our own

SPEAKER_132: personal gain or for charity that may well be true but but the question is how how bad is 200 that's gp i don't think that's a really bad scenario i mean i really don't think it matters i think the

David Friedberg: point is if that happens yeah yeah we'll have a lot of money you'll just have to profit from it if you think it's happening your job is to profit from it i'll make the same bet with you freebrook i think

SPEAKER_12: it gets to 200 before it gets to 50. or 250 or 300 you can pick your number i think it will too i'm

SPEAKER_106: i'm just like let's do the math on that real quick so the the size of gdp is what about 25 trillion and and we're at about 32 trillion of debt if we're to have 200 debt to gdp right now it'd be at 50 trillion of debt now let's assume let's impute an interest rate at which you would need to finance

SPEAKER_213: that four percent so i think four percent you have to calculate the duration i understand but just

SPEAKER_106: it's always going to be baseline yeah let's just baseline so let's say four percent so four percent on 50 trillion is two trillion a year yep which is isn't that like half the budget yeah more and

SPEAKER_04: that's what that's my point that's why you have to see taxes go up to over 70 percent because it's the only way you can you got to tax everything in order to fund that so the u.s government has

SPEAKER_106: collected two trillion in fiscal year 2023 now we i guess we haven't done a complete year but let's do 2022 it basically collected 3.7 trillion right you're using more than half of the government's

SPEAKER_217: income based on the current tax rates to fund the interest payments on your debt that's not even to pay for social services that's not even to pay for the defense it's not even to pay for government services that's just more than half of the income i guess maybe we're just speaking past each other

SPEAKER_15: i guess you guys are expressing anxiety and concern and i'm just expressing here's how

SPEAKER_27: one would make money because it's pretty obvious what's going to happen we're going to 200 we're

SPEAKER_219: not going to 50. so i just kind of compart how do you make money i think there's a lot of ways that

David Friedberg: you could make money i'm not going to share those on the pot anymore but there's lots of ways you can

SPEAKER_225: make money what's the trade there stan ruck and miller said it's the opposite of stan's trades actually so oh okay that's good that would be an easy way to actually if you think that would you go long the dollar and short gold no because those are like antiquated ways of making money where you

SPEAKER_15: have to have these convoluted derivatives agreements with these banks and i've done these before where you're levered up to billions of dollars of risk it proves nothing and i don't sleep well at night i think that there are simpler strategies that you can implement but i think stan is basically betting that the u.s will break and that we will be forced in some way to bring debt to gdp closer to 50 than to 150 or 200 and i would just bet the opposite and it's not because i want it to happen

SPEAKER_13: or that he's not intellectually or morally right also inflation down again we've kind of gotten used to

SPEAKER_00: this but this i thought this was a particularly interesting chart if you look at food goods and energy all going in the right direction services still very expensive any thoughts on the fed and inflation as we uh wrap up on sort of where we're at here is another 25 basis points core inflation is

SPEAKER_106: very sticky yeah right yeah i mean with cpi is down to 4.9 but but core actually was up it was up it was up what 5.3 something like that yeah core was up so yeah the fed is it raised another 25 basis points what are we up to like 5.25 percent i was ready to stop you know two hikes ago because i thought that the economy was breaking the banking system was breaking they're up to now to five and a quarter you've got core cpi still sticky yes cpi is coming down but it looks like you know inflation is still a problem this is not a great setup for economic recovery and if you believe here's the problem with accepting the idea that inflation is going to be persistently high is if inflation remains persistently high then the fed won't be able to lower interest rates so they'll need to keep them elevated they might even need to keep raising them and if that happens they'll continue to be incredible stress on the banking system and more banks are going to break and then eventually that will create

SPEAKER_205: the conditions for a financial crisis i think the thing you guys have to be open to is the fact that

SPEAKER_15: we've never really tested the ability for the u.s to borrow durationally beyond 30 years

SPEAKER_27: and again we talked about what an error it was in judgment for the treasury not to issue 100 year bonds but i think if there's any country in the world that can issue 100 year bonds it's the united states

SPEAKER_15: of america and i do think that they'll be able to get durational assets that are that far out on the yield curve so i again am less concerned about the debt wall here because i think you'll be able to push maturities out you'll be able to refi a bunch of short-term obligations into the future and if you look at where the yield curve is 10 years at three and a half 340 something so the thought is that inflation goes down if you put it out to 100 years i would be very surprised if 100 year rates if they priced a bond weren't somewhere sub one percent so i do think it becomes effectively free money for the united states and i think it's just a practical thing they need to explore by the way corporates have explored these 50-year bonds and greater so i think it's just like it's a matter of mathematics as you guys have just illustrated here that the u.s has to push out past 30 years so we'll have 50-year u.s bonds we'll have 100-year u.s bonds again i'm not here to claim whether it's right or wrong but i think the the simple way to acknowledge that is just that we are going to reinflate the money supply over the long term because it's the only sustainable way that politicians can get elected and re-elected

SPEAKER_13: and i think the best thing to do there is to own risk assets let's move on to the presidential

SPEAKER_00: election real quick i'm curious gentlemen last week we had rfk on did you get any feedback uh the the show obviously did really well a lot of people watched it i got a tremendous amount of feedback people thought he was a fascinating interesting character some people thought he was a conspiracy theorist they pointed out a bunch of different moments during the interview but what was the

SPEAKER_15: general feedback you got my biggest thing was i think he surprised a lot of people to the upside a lot of people emailed me saying they thought one specific thing with him and we tried to address it which is he's painted as this kind of like conspiracy theorist or anti-vax person by the mainstream media and overwhelmingly so much of the feedback was wow this guy is so totally different because you gave him a long long format in order for him to really talk i thought he was really engaging

SPEAKER_236: and very interesting and very smart sacks did you get feedback on it yeah i mean i think he is very

David Sacks: authentic i think he's very principled i think that he's a rebel in a way i mean to grow up in the

SPEAKER_106: kennedy family and to be part of all of those elite circles whether it's in hollywood or harvard or

SPEAKER_238: where do they go for the summer martha's vineyard martha's vineyard or kind of bunkport

SPEAKER_106: yeah kenny bunco whatever i mean you think about like all of the elite circles that he grew up in right and for him to deviate from democratic party orthodoxy and elite thinking in all these really significant ways shows that he is again very principled very authentic and i think a rebel in a really good way and he's telling people a lot of things that you just don't hear on the democratic

SPEAKER_132: side and through the mainstream media so i think it's all positive yeah i got positive feedback

SPEAKER_00: on a freeberg the one thing people said was we they some people said not a lot but they expected us to push back maybe on him harder or something or be harder i thought we did an interesting job of letting him talk and really taking these topics to 10 or 20 minutes each the one people were particularly i don't know if concerned is the right word or puzzled by was that we didn't push back

SPEAKER_40: as much on the vaccine stuff we just let him talk about it a week later what do you think about his

SPEAKER_18: vaccine position and would you have pushed back more or do you do you regret not pushing back more

SPEAKER_04: friedberg as our so science guy he made a lot of generalized statements or statements that i think take a concern about one thing and then make them evidence for a whole thing being off for example there is a vaccine that isn't efficacious there was a vaccine that had mercury in it therefore all vaccines are bad oh we over vaccinate now many vaccines today that kids take going into schools have saved countless lives and they've had a really critical role in reducing a lot of child born illness it's been you know just an incredible advance for humanity for medicine etc i think he had a number of points he made about the covet vaccine and i know he's made these points for many years he kind of extrapolates that you know it's evidence that vaccines are generally over prescribed and overused and pharma companies are just out to make money and the government is aligned with pharma companies to just try and make money i don't think that that is necessarily true i think that there are certainly incentives that can drive bad behavior but i do not think that wouldn't looking at the evidence both contra evidence and evidence of safety and benefit that childhood vaccines should be kind of changed in terms of how we're doing things today there may be some things to change but generally i think that they're very beneficial so i don't love kind of how he frames these things and i think that it instead of having kind of a more nuanced conversation about this particular thing in this particular example he blankets things and people get scared and they're like oh my gosh you're right we should stop doing vaccines for kids that's very dangerous that would be very bad for society be very bad for our kids and i think that we need to kind of address that in more detail over time it's one of these hard things where you have to have kind of a nuanced conversation to give people all the necessary depth and context to feel better informed to make a better decision because you know there's always this kind of gripping fear that if something's off and i'm getting you know poison or i'm getting bad medicine or you know people are trying to make money off me people immediately react negatively and angrily and they want to kind of resolve to a blanket position i don't think that that's healthy so i'd love to have a deeper debate on that but the reason we didn't go into it is because we didn't we had limited time with him and we wanted to take our time kind of giving him a chance to talk about the overview of topics and getting his point of view across the the set of topics that we generally thought were going to be relevant in the selection cycle so that's that was with two hours

SPEAKER_175: we still didn't have enough time you could talk for two hours about vaccine could i address the

SPEAKER_106: conspiracy theorist point yeah sure so first of all that that label conspiracy theorist doesn't pack the punch that it used to as you recall anyone who thought the virus might have come from the wuhan lab was once called a conspiracy theorist if you believed that fauci and the nih were funding gain of function research that was dubbed a conspiracy theory if you believe that cloth mask didn't do anything that was a conspiracy theory if you believe that hunter biden was getting paid off by foreign governments that was a conspiracy theory so this accusation just doesn't really pack the same

SPEAKER_40: punch anymore trump not having a relationship with the russians and his family meeting with the

SPEAKER_106: russians multiple times yeah that's still a conspiracy theory jake but to you it is but in any

SPEAKER_132: event my point is it doesn't pack the same punch in fact in some cases it's starting to become a

SPEAKER_106: badge of honor so that's one thing the second thing is when you listen to him make his arguments he's not just alleging certain things he's laying out his evidence right he's he's connecting dots he's explaining the causation and you can disagree with that but he is thinking in terms of like causation and it made me think about something that peter thiel once said about you know founders being asperger's where he flipped it on his head and said what is it about our society that talks founders out of all of their contrarian ideas unless they are a little bit asperger's ah interesting what is it about our political system and our media that talks people out of seeing causation unless they are a little bit of a conspiracy theorist and what i mean by that is look at san francisco okay all you have to do is walk down the street and you can see that things have gone totally off the rails and whatever we've done politically is not working and yet the

SPEAKER_132: voters in san francisco just like completely block that out they don't see any causation between the way they vote at the city level or at the state level and the policies that are manifest on our

SPEAKER_106: streets they just don't see any causation there and you can just play that movie over and over again

SPEAKER_132: our elites don't see any causation between the way they ran the country and the election of donald trump

SPEAKER_106: the fact that we hauled out our manufacturing in the rust belt by throwing open our markets to china exporting our jobs to china the way that we squandered all this money in the forever wars of the middle east now in regards to what your views are on those policies it's pretty obvious to me that they helped cause the rise of donald trump and yet you just can't get the media to see any causation between the policies they endorse and the inevitable reaction to them and so the way i see

SPEAKER_254: this is that our political analysis certainly our mainstream media they're just completely bereft

SPEAKER_132: of seeing any causation between policies and the problems in our society and so along comes rfk jr and he's willing to actually connect dots now you may not agree with all the dots he's connecting but maybe it takes it the same way maybe it takes a little bit of an asperger's founder to stick with their contrarian idea so they don't get talked out of it maybe it takes a guy like robert f kenny jr not to get talked out of these things that he believes some of which i think are

SPEAKER_107: just obviously true i thought one of the salient points he made was just hey listen farmer spends

SPEAKER_00: an awful lot on advertising the media is dependent on that advertising they don't seem to criticize it all that much maybe that's something we should look into now i don't think that like pfizer is writing the script for anderson cooper but you can be sure that if pfizer didn't like something anderson cooper said there's somebody they could call at cnn and say something to and have a conversation about you know setting the record straight whatever however you would frame it

SPEAKER_132: speaking of cnn right and don't leave that point before i thought it was a really interesting part of the conversation when he mentioned that he had been friends way back with roger ailes yeah and

SPEAKER_254: roger specifically told him yes that they could not post certain or televise certain content if it was too critical of pharma companies because they were the number one advertiser yeah

SPEAKER_40: and should pharma companies even be advertising so then all of a sudden let's say it was a conspiracy

SPEAKER_00: theory or he is like way out there in terms of his belief but the fact is it does bring up the point

SPEAKER_109: should we actually be letting pharma companies advertise on television or on news programs maybe

SPEAKER_106: they shouldn't be allowed to be on news it's not like it's not like the consumer who watches the ads can go out and buy the drug as you prescribed by a doctor they can ask their doctor about it yeah

SPEAKER_00: all right well speaking of cnn there was an absolute train wreck of a presidential town hall with a moderator named caitlyn collins i don't recognize her name i don't know if she has a show on cnn but i saw the clips from it i couldn't find the full debate but my lord was this unbelievable it's unbelievable it was unbelievable he got a standing ovation he absolutely owned her on every question all of her questions were about you know january 6th you know all of them are valid but none of them were about running the country essentially and uh he was hilarious at least to this audience and he cnn's staffers are really upset that they did this that they gave him the that they

SPEAKER_266: platformed him which shows you exactly where they stand they're upset i guess they thought they could

SPEAKER_15: own him and they didn't did you guys see the part where he was talking about the trial and he's like

SPEAKER_17: and she has a cat named vagina did you i mean it was surreal and i just thought to myself is this going to be the next year and a half we're going to have these town halls and then i thought oh he's going to get elected is it true that eugene carroll has a cat named vagina i have no idea but i mean it was

SPEAKER_00: that was a pretty vicious section and then i got the sense that cnn's management wants this this is like

SPEAKER_17: a ratings bonanza for them and i think they secretly want him freeberg said it it's so true he's so

SPEAKER_02: entertaining i could not stop laughing i watched him on cnn and i was like man it's it's like uh one of your one of your old tv shows that you don't really remember watching a lot of and it comes back on and you're like he's so ridiculous the things he says it's true because when he first got when he

SPEAKER_15: first got elected i was so afraid and then you realize this guy is just an entertainer really he's a

SPEAKER_27: terrible politician bill barr said that or yeah did you see the bar interview the bar clip that i shared is just bananas about trump but so he's a showman and he's a great showman you know he's

SPEAKER_15: entertaining and you realize that he was that's all he's ever really wanted to be was like famous and popular and on television and and he got all of those things and he took it to the to the most

SPEAKER_225: infinite level what bill bar said was most insightful that it's chaos when he actually tries to get

SPEAKER_04: things done he can't get things done right and he'll tell you all the things that you want to hear that he wants to that you want to see get done he did this to peter thiel and peter thiel spoken about this publicly so i'm not saying anything out of line here i don't know if this is something that's on the record or not but it was publicly stated that peter was disappointed that trump did not get the things done that he said he was going to get done and i think that's really what what he does is he incites he entertains he gets people engaged he knows what you want to hear he sells you on it he cripples the establishment which everyone feels treated poorly by that everyone feels held back by that everyone feels has taken something from them that isn't giving something to them and then he says you know what i'm going to fix all that for you and then you get excited by it and then all of a sudden he doesn't actually deliver it and four years have gone by and we've forgotten about it and he's come back in and he's kind of you know titillating again so i think i think the

SPEAKER_217: reality is he's got a real shot at getting reelected here oh my god you're right here's what i want to

SPEAKER_43: ask i'll go around the horn i'll start with you sec i mean he said january 6 was like a beautiful day

SPEAKER_00: he said that everybody in the republican party who said he lost the election is wrong and that the

SPEAKER_266: election was in fact stolen like he literally doubled down on every single thing right so at the end of this he gets a standing ovation in new hampshire so how did cnn pick that audience did they do that on purpose did they know that was going to be the outcome but at the end of the day after that does

SPEAKER_00: that increase his chances of winning the republican nomination and the presidency in your mind sacks

David Sacks: yes of course it does why look well look i mean donald trump showed that he's a force of nature

SPEAKER_106: he's a wrecking ball he went into cnn's carefully laid trap where he's not just up against caitlyn

SPEAKER_118: collins make no mistake she's got an earpiece in her ear with all of cnn's researchers and hosts and producers they're all feeding for every attack behind yeah exactly and he basically demolished

SPEAKER_106: her he controlled the interview he had the crowd laughing when he wanted them to laugh responding the way he wanted them to respond and to the point now where the cnn staffers are like oh my god what did we do an aoc was basically you know wringing her hands about how how could cnn platform him this way so so look he gave no quarter whatsoever like you said he doubled down on everything he tripled down and he showed his ability to kind of bend reality to his will so all the strengths of trump that being said i'm sure that trump and his campaign were delighted with what happened last night because i do think it makes him more likely to be the nominee i think first and foremost i think republicans want a candidate who will fight the media and their fake narratives and lies no matter how many lies trump tells they think the media is the bigger liar and they want someone who is willing to step in the lion's den and take them on and he is incredibly adroit and quick on his feet and desantis is imploding

SPEAKER_132: well i wouldn't say that he hasn't been announced yes incognitive decline so what would any of them do yeah just to be fair desantis clearly is the underdog okay but just give the guy a chance because

SPEAKER_106: we haven't even seen what he can do yet but there's no question that trump showed an adroitness and a willingness to counter punch and fight back that the base the republican base definitely responds to now yeah so we know we know that trump is happy with the debate i think the other party that is super happy with this debate is biden and all of his people because as much as that debate helped trump in the republican primary it did nothing for him in the general i don't think like you said jason he doubled down on january 6. the campaign ads write themselves okay they're going to show footage of

SPEAKER_175: january 6 with the tear gas and the riots being beaten people being shot people pushing down the barricades and they're going to do a narrative a voiceover with trump saying it was a beautiful day

SPEAKER_106: the people there had love in their hearts itself yeah it writes itself and then you know he doubled down really strongly on roe v wade that was crazy being overturned he's like yeah that was i mean i don't have his quote which again i think it doesn't hurt him in the republican primary but it's you know it it will lead to a campaign attack ad in in the general and there were other issues as well okay so so the biden campaign is super happy right now because i think the only republican he could beat is trump i think the reverse is true for trump i think the only democrat who trump could beat is biden i mean they are both two of the most unpopular candidates in america in a general election so they love the fact they're gonna be facing each other but you know who doesn't is the american

SPEAKER_132: people two-thirds american people don't want this choice they say they're already fatigued by it and they're only going to get more fatigued by it because i think for the next like you said 18 months we're going to have the trump show with him taking on the media and that plays into biden's hands because biden doesn't need to campaign he'll just let trump and the media beat each other up he'll do a rose garden campaign where once a week he goes in front of the microphones and responds to whatever trump's latest outrage is he doesn't have the vigor to campaign and he won't and then we'll just see where the chips land i think that it's it's quite possible here that after 18 months of trump and the media beating each other up the american people just say you know what this biden guy is totally senile but i'm like so tired of the the trump show i've got trump fatigue again i'm just gonna have to go with biden and i think i think this is how biden gets re-elected

SPEAKER_266: this is a disaster for american the fact that we are putting biden who's in clearly in cognitive decline and trump as the two candidates again the two candidates nobody wants makes me think this is just

SPEAKER_00: like a complete disaster for america can we not find two other candidates chamath what did you think coming out of his stand-up special on cnn the trump town hall stand-up special i think that i'm more

SPEAKER_13: surprised by the fact that the big republican mega donors have taken a big step back away from desantis

SPEAKER_27: i thought that if the money train on the republican side picked desantis that it would be very difficult

SPEAKER_15: for trump to overcome it but he's managed to somehow fade that bullet too he's like neo in the matrix it's like you have these guys shooting bullets at this guy and he just keeps somehow finding a way to evade them but this week schwartzman i was just going to say well schwartzman stepped back ken griffin basically has gone silent so there's a lot of guys that came close to him and this is what i've maintained which is i think desantis ages poorly you know he's best before you actually spend time with

SPEAKER_27: him and the more time people seem to spend and again this is just evidenced by these big republican mega donors they don't seem to be running towards this guy they seem to be at least saying we're going

SPEAKER_08: to hedge or hedging yeah they're waiting friedberg any thoughts and then i'll go back to you you went for

SPEAKER_43: like 10 minutes let freeberg go and then you go freeberg any thoughts on it in terms of is this make him more electable do you think he's going to win what's your gut tell you the cnn thing yeah yes post

SPEAKER_50: cnn do you think do you think he's going to win you think he beats biden the crazy polling data is

SPEAKER_04: that biden had you know 20 of the votes going to rfk jr who's like a nobody no one knows candidate and he's beating a sitting president in his own party so that says a lot about you know how much support biden has and i think that trump is going to be pretty appealing as the anti-biden candidate i mean biden was the anti-trump candidate and now trump's the anti-biden candidate and right now he looks like he's dynamic and he was uh a big shift i think rfk jr feels a lot like a trump candidate to me too i mean you know some of the positioning and the statements and the way he talks and being anti-establishment he could also have that appeal i think there's a non-zero chance biden actually doesn't run for a re-election at this point play that out i can play that out that's a really scary

SPEAKER_158: scenario because i think that's how we get a president newsom listen i mean newsom is warming

SPEAKER_106: up in the bullpen right now and he's not just you know hanging out back there and you know spitting shaw he's pitching fastballs very noisily he's been running tv ads he's been going to florida he's been picking fights you know well outside of his state he is basically telling the democratic party put me in the game coach and he's just waiting for the signal to go he he needs to know from democratic party insiders and the establishment that he can go he doesn't want to risk throwing away his career

SPEAKER_132: challenging biden but if biden becomes too weak to run and he gets the signal to go he'll go and he can raise a lot of money and i'm not saying sorry can you can you guys just explain both of you like

SPEAKER_60: how does that actually like what do you guys think happens like there's a press conference that where

SPEAKER_04: biden says he's retiring i think he said after careful thought and consideration i've made the decision that at my age i'd like to spend more time with my family and not continue this hefty responsibility and i'd love to see someone else take the mantle and i think that that will result you know from a series of polls that will indicate that he may not have a shot if he continues this campaign i think that i'm not saying that's a certainty i think that's a non-zero chance right now that that scenario plays out when that does play out to saxe's point it's probably not just newsome but there's probably half a dozen and likely a dozen folks that pop their head up and want to get not just kind of have a real run at the presidency on the democratic side but probably end up saying i want to heighten people's awareness of me and so on and they all run on that on that ticket but the dnc might be having a real tough conversation in the next couple of months

SPEAKER_289: about how biden's polling and whether he really is the right candidate to have on the ticket so

SPEAKER_106: let's see let me give you a historical example so i mentioned this i think when rfk jr was on the pod but lbj was the sitting democratic president in 1968 and he went into the new hampshire primary and he won the new hampshire primary but not by a big enough margin and a few weeks later he announced he was leaving the race because of health reasons but the specific challenger who helped knocked him out of new hampshire was gene mccarthy and then after that happened bobby kennedy got in the race so we could have a situation here where it's bobby kennedy jr is you know initially playing the gene mccarthy role of being kind of the anti-war protest candidate who helps knock

SPEAKER_295: biden out of the race and then who knows i mean he could become gavin newsome they're going to want to come in into the race at that point but remember you know the thing the thing that happened

SPEAKER_106: in early 1968 that caused lbj to leave the race is you had the ted offensive and cronkite got back from vietnam saying the war cannot be won and then at that point it was like game over well look this ukrainian counter-offensive zelinski just announced today that they need more time so we've been hearing for months if not a year that you're going to have a big ukrainian counter-offensive in the spring summer of this year and ukraine's going to win this war and instead it looks like it's being destroyed ukraine is so this war is turning into a debacle i think it could be an even worse debacle by the end of the year the economy has a banking crisis going on it's turning into a big fiasco so i think it's very possible that biden could announce that it's time for him to step aside and you could see the floodgates open for newsom or jb pritzker or something like that however let me just say this i think the odds of biden leaving the race went down significantly as a result of last night because all of the political people around biden are saying we know how to win this thing

SPEAKER_132: we just ab tested the strategy in the midterms remember we had three quarters of the american people in the midterms think that we were already in a recession and um and that the country was on the wrong track and the out of power party supposed to gain seats and the red wave turned into a puddle why because biden's strategy of saying democracy was on the ballot and running against january 6 it actually worked i'm not saying i bought that argument but enough independence did independence ended up breaking for biden and the democrats republicans didn't but independence did so independence have bought that argument in the midterms in and trump again if he's the nominee they're going to run that same playbook now it's not guaranteed to work i think this thing's going to be a nail biter i think it's going to be a toss-up if it's biden versus trump but i think that biden's people have to feel very good about this matchup because they feel like they already know

SPEAKER_266: how to run this campaign this is what he said about roe v wade it was such a great victory i mean can you imagine how that's going to play with women voters they're just going to be like yeah

SPEAKER_300: no it was not a great victory you took away our right to choose for ourselves well definitely

Chamath Palihapitiya: democratic women voters will not like it but there's a lot of republican women voters that that

SPEAKER_301: will support that state here let me give you this 30 let me give you this data of the country to take a look at this i i don't think you're right jason i just shared with you kind of the reuters polling

SPEAKER_04: data the most recent one and the number one issue at 24 of likely voters that they care about is the

SPEAKER_217: economy 24 number two is crime at 14 number three is immigration at nine percent number four is inequality at six percent and on and on and on only when you get down to like number 10 you get to

SPEAKER_04: abortion which comes in at three percent two percent of democrats one percent or you know three percent of four percent of democrats one percent of republicans yeah but what is the margin of the election well i don't think that that's the issue that breaks it i think there's other things that there's significant differences on particularly around crime and immigration inequality that are pulling much higher

SPEAKER_303: in terms of importance to likely voters do they drive turnout like abortion does i don't know

SPEAKER_217: just i'm just thinking of these numbers it's like you know one to three percent of people saying it

SPEAKER_04: matters to them is not that significant i think these other topics are going to be very divisive and very different uh very polar difference and what people say in a poll and what people turn out to

SPEAKER_40: vote for like for some people that is a major issue but who knows i think it's a toss-up basically

SPEAKER_158: look like i said i think the only candidate that biden could beat is trump and biden's probably the

SPEAKER_106: only sitting president that trump can beat so i mean again they're both poll nationally in the mid-30s

SPEAKER_00: and this is the choice we have i gotta give sax's red meat i saw these uh republicans are going on a revenge tour here to uh go after the biden family they said they would and they have so the oversight

SPEAKER_167: uh house oversight committee reveals i guess nine biden family members received wire transfers from

SPEAKER_00: foreign nationals via shell corporations and they don't have any connections to biden we know that

SPEAKER_309: hunter was securing the bag all over the planet he's clearly a grifter i don't think there's any doubt

SPEAKER_00: about that what's the truth here how much evidence do they have because this is obviously a partisan thing just like there were partisan things on the other side when they were investigating trump so how do you look at this information this revelation they keep they're using this like biting cried crime family meme do you think this is actually evidence of something or is it just another rich family with a bunch of llcs

David Sacks: another rich family wait how do they get rich good question the kennedys were a rich family

SPEAKER_158: but the biden's were not a rich family so how do they get rich their only business is they don't have

SPEAKER_40: money they don't know how much money is actually here and how it's being what evidence they have

SPEAKER_106: it's not red meat for me i just think the media should have done its job investigating the story properly and what this investigation has turned up is that there's a lot of members of the bind family i think they're up to like 10 or 12 or something we've received payments flowing from

SPEAKER_132: foreign governments no one can tell you what any of those people did in exchange for the money

SPEAKER_106: it does appear to be an influence peddling operation i don't know whether that's

SPEAKER_167: here's to be an influence peddling operation so people were giving money again the the point is

SPEAKER_106: that why would you give money to members of the buying family it presumably for some sort of access to the person who's been in washington for 50 years who's been a senator who gave the money is

SPEAKER_43: it china is it ukraine do they have that data well i think we know about burisma which is basically a

David Sacks: ukraine hunter yeah yeah and then i think china is another one now i don't know what the quid pro

SPEAKER_309: quo is for that money but i wonder if this is like the kraken or if this is actually reality because they seem to be short on actual facts i think they got a lot there but i mean they're putting

SPEAKER_106: out all these reports but listen i think to me the the actually the bigger story or the bigger scandal is just more details on the way that the security state wrote that fake letter basically calling the hunter bind story russian disinformation there's an email now that just came out where mike morrell is corresponding with john brennan and morrell specifically says we're creating the letter to give biden a talking point in the debate they're the former cia directors right yeah exactly both of them were ciro directors at different points so there's no question now that that letter where 51 security state officials claimed that the hunter bind story is russian disinformation that was all basically a political dirty trick and dirty tricks happen but i don't think the cia should be involved that's the thing i don't think the the branches of our government should be involved in helping to get any candidate these guys weren't even in that bothers me they're former but former yeah they're

SPEAKER_326: highly related so just so we're clear it wasn't like the cia they continue to have the security clearance but it's not the cia did this these are former cia folks actually morrell needed the

SPEAKER_132: approval of the cia huh so that was another thing that came out well that's what bothers me more than

SPEAKER_254: anything is i do not think our permanent government especially security agencies should be involved in partisan politics they really need to stay out that is election meddling that bothers me that's a form of corruption that i think is even worse than monetary payments jay cal can you tell us about

SPEAKER_00: your trip to the middle east what have you been doing there so our bestie brad gerstner was coming here and we were at the poker game a couple weeks ago maybe a month ago and he said he was going and i've always wanted to come to uae and i've never seen dubai or abu dhabi and so i said yeah i'd love to go with you and we did a couple speaking gigs where are you staying so four seasons in ritz four seasons in abu dhabi and the ritz here in dubai and i was just going to do these three speaking gigs a podcast and isn't ifc in dubai incredible have you been amazing financial district here yeah i mean it's it's and it's all been built in the last 10 years i would say generally speaking what i'm super impressed about and i i'm not it's not a fundraising trip i was just going but then uh one of your former employees chamath set me up with a bunch of meetings because he's like hey there's a lot of people who want to meet you so i i'm doing like a maybe a dozen meetings or so and there is um a real this is a very progressive place that the uae of all the uh and dubai obviously is very progressive and so it reminds me of like you know silicon valley in the early days where everybody's doing

SPEAKER_109: something and it's incredibly cosmopolitan there's only 500 000 nationals but there's 10 million people

SPEAKER_337: here more hindi is spoken than any other language in dubai yeah i mean the number of people here

SPEAKER_109: from all around the world is bonkers and then everybody's working on something everybody's got a

SPEAKER_17: project and the people are delightful did you go to the french restaurant i told you about in

SPEAKER_00: abu dhabi i did it's quite nice did you get the rib eye yeah we had like a family style thing so i didn't get the ribeye but it was it was exceptional the food's exceptional it's just like incredibly cosmopolitan it's like going to new york you know or london and they are there's a very unique moment in

SPEAKER_27: time right now sax when you go to abu dhabi and you stand you stay at the four seasons in the adgm go to this french restaurant and order the ribeye it is a top five steak i've ever had top five i've

SPEAKER_343: never been there i've never been to middle east so delicious so delicious so delicious and in dubai

SPEAKER_15: do not stay at the ritz in ifc the ifc is incredible but the ritz sucks stay at the bulgari hotel

SPEAKER_00: beautiful just beautiful but there's a very unique moment in time i literally came down the elevator at the four seasons and i met four or five people from silicon valley in the lobby and then i came out of dinner uh and there was a table of silicon valley entrepreneurs and venture capitalists it is i mean

SPEAKER_50: it's basically like going to the rosewood in in abu dhabi but what a statement that is like the us

SPEAKER_154: is tapped out we are like broke that's i think basically the they are the way it's been explained

SPEAKER_00: to me is they believe they have 20 years 30 years to convert the oil economy into a technology capital allocator economy and so they want to make evergreen funds to invest they haven't had a chance to invest in venture capital because most venture capital there weren't that many they were fully allocated and there was no opportunity now with what's happened in the united states and this pull

SPEAKER_40: back and sort of the cycle starting over again i think there's an opportunity for them to invest in some funds and start relationships and then you know we've had a long talk here about human rights in different countries and it's not a monolith over here i mean i don't know who needs to hear that exactly but there there's these countries are very different very different i'm sure they

David Sacks: appreciate your lectures on that subject jaco actually you know what's interesting we didn't have

SPEAKER_349: lectures on it but we had i've had multiple conversations about these i've enjoyed your lectures

SPEAKER_40: on this pod i don't lecture about it i think these are important issues that people discuss and the serious thing is a number of these countries are majority young people and they are reforming very

SPEAKER_00: quickly and rights are changing and so the question is for you know all of us and uh for the world is do we collaborate and you know support as they you know become more liberal and become more tolerant and they you know become more western basically and young people it's very western here and the parties going on here are pretty much like the parties i attended in la or new york and so i think actually we're probably not as at least uae and a couple of countries here are not as disparate as

SPEAKER_301: like we one might think i'm glad you did the trip because i'm glad to hear you talking like that that there

SPEAKER_04: isn't an us versus them point of view and you know visiting and seeing the culture and the intention of the people within the culture super important and i think it's it's good that you did it so good to

SPEAKER_332: hear i wanted to share the video that these guys did but let's do it next week i think it's really

SPEAKER_04: it's worth oh not the valenciaga one no the um the lord of the rings one that this guy did which

SPEAKER_08: is amazing wait what there's a lord of the rings video no not with us not with us jaco oh i don't want to watch it okay why would i want to watch that yeah thank you elmuth yeah exactly what i

SPEAKER_355: care i want to watch the valenciaga video for the third time did you see that yeah i took an outtake

SPEAKER_04: from the guy's video on lord of the rings we'll put the link in the show notes but this guy made this incredible ai generated wes anderson does lord of the rings oh i did see that did you see that it's amazing and uh the clip i'm using today as a background is is an outtake uh from the trailer did you see it sax oh my god it's so funny the guy is incredible but i mean the creativity and the potential with ai it's just so evident this guy talks about it on his website and on his twitter feed he did it in a couple of days he learned a bunch of new ai tools a lot of generative tools were integrated to make this possible it's an amazing two-minute piece of art that i think really speaks to the creativity being unleashed with ai again going back to this point about it not just being about job reduction and reductionism but it's really about unleashing new potential that we didn't envision before separately there'll be another i think we should talk about this next week but there's now this kind of generative video game platform that's being demoed where you can instruct the video game intentions and it generates a an immersive video game experience for you on the fly

SPEAKER_50: which is something we talked about a couple episodes probably a couple months ago at this point

SPEAKER_40: i had somebody on this week in startups who showed a video game where he made like you make 25 objects in the game it's really incredible in a certain style and then you say i want to make more

SPEAKER_107: characters like that i want to make more backgrounds like that like you take a wes anderson style

SPEAKER_00: whatever and it just generates them for you and it just keeps generating them for you so one artist can make a palette for a game and you say i want to have a penguin in my game i want to have a zombie

SPEAKER_317: in my game i want to have a yeah exactly that's exactly right yeah and it just does it and then

SPEAKER_02: people who are playing the game can say what they want with prompts and it creates it and you can drive a storyline and then you can integrate with other people's storylines i mean it's really

SPEAKER_165: powerful anyway i gotta run for david friedberg david sack and jamal polyhapatiya hi i'm your boy jay cal love you boys we'll see you all next time on the all in podcast bye-bye bye-bye playing

SPEAKER_362: yeah with the greatest hits here on z100 the balanciago video featuring the all in cast with cameos by

SPEAKER_364: bright armstrong keith roboi and elon musk coming at you balenciaga friday night eight o'clock hardest

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SPEAKER_368: in the front quantitative easing in the back the greatest source of value and wealth creation in

SPEAKER_370: the 22nd century could be driven by terrestrial nucleosynthesis getting dressed is easy owning the

SPEAKER_373: runway is hard the big winners of tomorrow will likely be the minecraft youtubers of today

SPEAKER_374: it's easier than ever to confuse popularity and truth i think it is possible for ordinary

SPEAKER_377: people to choose to be balenciaga the mainstream media is the most h&m it's ever been when i left

SPEAKER_374: facebook i left an enormous amount of equity on the table i thought i don't want to be a slave to money i want to be a slave to something bigger balenciaga facebook i'm i love you