SPEAKER_00: Yeah, Chamath goes to those sorts of events

SPEAKER_02: and they all pick some endangered animal and then they skin it and they make a sweater out of it for them. That's that Illuminati sh**. Illuminati.

SPEAKER_03: So this is Kashmir. It's lower piano. The lining is chinchilla.

SPEAKER_05: Chinchilla, I knew it. I knew it was some poor animal.

SPEAKER_06: I mean, it is so phenomenal. Probably nicer than a dog.

SPEAKER_08: It's so warm. Probably sweeter than any dog you've ever met if you actually played with the chinchilla.

SPEAKER_12: It's so warm. I'm just rubbing it. PETA is boycotting the show right now. Who?

SPEAKER_14: Nobody cares.

SPEAKER_19: Nobody cares.

SPEAKER_22: Hey, everybody.

SPEAKER_25: Hey, everybody. Welcome to another episode of the All In Illuminati podcast. We took Thanksgiving off, but the Illuminati is back

SPEAKER_28: to tell you what's going on in the Star Chamber. David Freeberg, the Sultan of Science, Queen of Quinoa, back with us. I like it. Sultan of Science.

SPEAKER_31: Super thin, looking svelte, David Sachs, at his fighting weight, 168 to 172 pounds in the red corner. And with a cashmere chinchilla sweater. Chinchilla! The Urkel from Sri Lanka

SPEAKER_33: at 142 pounds, Shabbat Pali Hapatiya. And I'm, of course, Jake.

SPEAKER_34: I'm at my, I'm at my, not peak weight, but in my 20s and 30s,

SPEAKER_36: I was like 172 pounds.

SPEAKER_35: Well, you're six foot, right? So that's...

SPEAKER_36: 6'2".

SPEAKER_37: So I'm currently 166.

SPEAKER_38: What? Wow. And you, and you, and you are wearing a shirt. Wow, that's incredible. If I was 166, I would, I did my, I did my body,

SPEAKER_11: I did my body scan. I was, percentage body fat is what? 14%? 11.1%. What?

SPEAKER_44: You're going into elite athlete slash castaway territory. I've been there.

SPEAKER_47: I've been there for now.

SPEAKER_36: And Saks?

SPEAKER_47: Lean body mass was 152.8 pounds.

SPEAKER_36: My basal metabolic rate was 1,868 calories. Okay. Sorry, sorry, sorry, sorry. Yeah, this was with my jeans on, sorry. And, and this was midday, so I had breakfast. So it was 171.9.

SPEAKER_40: So 172. So minus the clothes in the morning, I think I'm 167 less eating.

SPEAKER_51: Amazing.

SPEAKER_40: Wow. Yeah. Body. Yeah.

SPEAKER_53: 11.1% body fat. My BMI was 22.7. That's incredible.

SPEAKER_55: Wow. Congratulations. All right.

SPEAKER_57: So we took Thanksgiving off, but we're back. And of course, it's been a bit of a crazy run. Saks and I are in Miami. Uh, for web 3.0, uh,

SPEAKER_59: you would be delighted to know that there is no COVID in Florida. They've solved the COVID problem,

SPEAKER_31: but I miss you guys. I miss you guys. It's tough to take a week off. That was a mistake. We should have done a Thanksgiving episode. Yeah. It's,

SPEAKER_64: it's lame to take a week off because I miss everybody. Yeah, I agree. Did everyone have a good Thanksgiving? I took my kids to Vegas.

SPEAKER_66: You did really?

SPEAKER_36: The older three, me, me and Nat's dad, we took the, we took the older three to Vegas. We took them to like blue man group, to lion safari. Although blue man is a little loud actually, to be honest, I don't think it's really appropriate for kids to, Hey, or I almost had a seizure, so I don't like it. Yeah. But I think like,

SPEAKER_74: did you teach your kids how to play craps? I like, I like that Beatles Cirque du Soleil show. Beatles love. Yeah.

SPEAKER_36: That would have been a better choice in the end. What else did we do? We took them to the adventure dome,

SPEAKER_07: which is like an indoor amusement park.

SPEAKER_75: What'd you eat? Any good food?

SPEAKER_07: We ate a Cipriani one night and Carbone the next night.

SPEAKER_01: I was about to say, man, those are those two places. Oh, my God. Carbone with that vodka sauce. Fabulous.

SPEAKER_31: I was talking to Jade about the Carbone rigatoni with vodka sauce and she started making it for me. Delicious. The recipe online, it's unbelievable.

SPEAKER_34: It's so funny, you mentioned it, but both me and Popsy got it and we were both like, this is freaking awesome. Spicy rigatoni.

SPEAKER_81: It's so delicious.

SPEAKER_31: I mean, you can make it at home and it's pretty amazing.

SPEAKER_82: Sax, what was your, you came to Miami for Thanksgiving, I take it? Oh,

Chamath Palihapitiya: wait, wait. So the best part is, and I won a hundred dimes, you know, played craps for a little bit. Bop, bop. Beep,

SPEAKER_85: bink. Okay, so that plays for half the trip. Where'd you play? You played encore?

SPEAKER_86: I stayed at the encore. I spiked the wind for a hundred dimes in two hours.

SPEAKER_00: That's right at the bottom of the towers at that little VIP area down there.

Chamath Palihapitiya: But here's the best thing. I mean, you know, look, when you go to a casino, the best thing is you put the dice in the hands of the person that's never rolled. I said to Sergio, I said, Bopsy, just go there. You're going to start rolling. I'm not going to talk to you. I'm not ignoring you, so please don't misinterpret this, but I'm just going to let you be in your little zone. He hit everything. Wow. Everything. Wow.

SPEAKER_64: For 30 minutes. Hmm. And you got up.

SPEAKER_28: You got, you left a winner. It's always about, it's all about, about when you get up. Speaking about when you get up, I have been with Sachs. You want to talk about Rain Man? Literally, when David Sachs.

SPEAKER_90: Oh my God, Sachs, Sachs went off one night. Do you remember that night he went off?

SPEAKER_28: I was about to bring it up,

SPEAKER_92: but here's the thing with Sachs. He won. No, no, no. I saw a ballpark. That's not correct. Beep it out. I will say.

SPEAKER_95: How much was that? No. Beep it out. No.

SPEAKER_101: Beep it out.

SPEAKER_98: What was the number?

SPEAKER_101: All right. Well, anyway, let me just tell you.

SPEAKER_28: Tom Cruise and Rain Man. We're wearing the same suit. Wait,

SPEAKER_103: who's Tom Cruise?

SPEAKER_101: I'm Tom Cruise and he's the Rain Man. And literally, he's got his head healthy. He's like, Blackjack. Yeah, we're going to play three hands of concurrent Blackjack with J-Cow. Of course, of course, we're carrying cards

SPEAKER_31: at the Aria, at the high roller. And so we start high rolling. And I swear to God, this guy goes down, you know, a Model X, goes up a plat, but he never gives up. He never gives up. And we're supposed to go to LA. And I have a benefit dinner I bought a table for. And he's like, I'm sorry, J-Cow. I can't leave.

SPEAKER_57: So I show up for the benefit dinner three hours late. They're closing the place down. They're like, oh, thanks for showing up, J-Cow. And it was all because he had to come back up but I've seen him come back from some gnarly defeats.

SPEAKER_109: What is the secret? Well,

SPEAKER_110: I saw Phil, your friend Phil Helmuth and Brandon Cantu the other night here in Miami. And they reminded me of that like legendary run where basically, I think I bought in for like a hundred, you know, and I was down to like, and I was playing two hands and I was down to my last like five. And, you know, I'd been like on a horrible losing streak. And the hand came along where the dealer had like a five showing and I basically, I doubled down for my last, you know, last bets. And then the dealer like misstealed. She like did the cards out of order and Phil made her rewind the cards and have them go back to where they were supposed to go instead of declaring the hand of missteal because I had like doubled down with the five showing. So anyway, the pit boss came over, they ended up listening to Phil and I won those two hands. And then from there, I went on like a run. Oh, I love it. I love it. And so Cantu, Cantu actually remembers the stats. He's like, he's like, you won 30, you won 85% of the hands in like the next two, you know, shoes. Shoes. Yeah, you won like 35 hands in a row. He's like, it was unbelievable. And yeah, it was crazy. Did you tip Phil

SPEAKER_116: at the end of the night?

SPEAKER_110: He was there playing with me. It was him, me, and then Cantu was there as like kind of the real bird and it was bonkers.

Chamath Palihapitiya: These pro poker players, they are kind of savants for these kinds of things. They remember every hand. They can go back years

SPEAKER_126: every flop turn river. It's really incredible. They're gambling Tevos. They're gambling Tevos. They just, it's a DVR.

SPEAKER_110: But Brandon wasn't even playing. It was basically Phil was there and then I was playing two hands and then Brandon was just hanging with us and he remembers

David Sacks: like all the stats of like what happened for that, whatever, half hour. It's bonkers. Yeah.

SPEAKER_57: Okay. Well, since we took a week off, we apologize for taking the week off. We regret it. A couple of things have happened. I don't know if you guys look at the stats but I couldn't believe it but we were the 41st most popular episode two episodes ago in the world. So the pod has reached some sort of tipping point. I don't know if you're having this experience in Miami, David, but is everybody stopping you to say they love All In

SPEAKER_109: and did you see all the Spotify love of people who watched like 3,000 minutes of All In

SPEAKER_134: That was a viral feature that Spotify came up with was a way to

SPEAKER_110: basically it generates a list of what your top shows were for the year based on listening minutes. So it's like actually mathematical and then you can basically retweet that. So yeah, I've seen a lot of tweets of people saying that we were number one or top five. I had one guy stop me at Art Basel.

David Sacks: I don't get stopped that much but there is a little bit more of that.

SPEAKER_135: Yeah, I'm getting stopped constantly and it was just a flood. So thank you to everybody who shared that and for tuning in and we apologize for taking weeks off.

SPEAKER_136: We're going to have a no weeks off rule going forward. That's something absolutely necessary.

SPEAKER_82: But last week we had a new variant come out. We've been talking about it a whole bunch. Well, you're talking

SPEAKER_140: about Miami.

SPEAKER_141: How is Miami? You've been having a good time?

SPEAKER_110: Well, I got to tell a story about Miami. Oh, okay. All right. So, I mean, I think this place is paradise. You know, first of all, the weather is just perfect this time of year. San Francisco was miserable. It was like rainy and cold. We come here and it's like mid-70s all week. And of course, you're not stepping over hypodermic needles or feces or, you know, you're not worried about being randomly assaulted by a homeless drug addict having a psychotic break just for starters, right?

SPEAKER_146: So, you know, we've been like talking all week.

SPEAKER_149: We've been talking all week. And that's just in your house. Right.

SPEAKER_151: That's just in the mausoleum before you get out.

David Sacks: That's just going to Starbucks. Yeah, that's just going to Starbucks. Exactly. Yeah. So, in any event, we're having this conversation about should we just move here full-time? And, you know, it's like it's, you know, it's a heart-wrenching

SPEAKER_110: or gut-wrenching decision because the kids have schools and friends and we've been in California a long time. And so, here we are wringing our hands about whether to make this move. And all of a sudden, I read online that Nancy Pelosi just spent 25 million buying her retirement house for when she loses the house in 2022. Presumably, she'll retire as Speaker in January of 23 when she's not Speaker anymore.

SPEAKER_158: She's going to move to Santa Barbara? No, she's moving to Florida. She bought a place in Jupiter. No, it wasn't true.

SPEAKER_159: It was, yeah.

David Sacks: I know it turned out to be fake news. Well, I question that. I think it was true and then she didn't like the bad press

SPEAKER_110: so they bailed out of that deal. We won't really know what's true until January of 2023 where we see where she retires to. But, in any event, so I'm reading this article and it says she's buying a house. It's where Tiger Woods lives. And actually, it's like half an hour. It's half an hour from where Donald Trump is. So, here she is buying this house probably with ill-gotten insider trading profits and she's going to live.

SPEAKER_161: She's the best trader in the Senate. Unbelievable trader. In the world. In the world.

SPEAKER_162: All of our government officials, she's got the best inside information.

SPEAKER_110: And she's planning to retire to a community of people she's demonized. I mean, starting with like Trump and then Tiger Woods. And so, she's going to be living in this community of people who she's been moralizing against and demonizing against as the Speaker of the House. And meanwhile, the rest of us are wringing our hands about whether we should stay in San Francisco, the city, the dystopian city that she's the political boss of, that her political machine has run into the ground. And I'm looking at this going like, oh, no, you don't. You're not leaving me holding the bag for this.

SPEAKER_171: If you're going to Florida,

SPEAKER_164: I'm definitely going to Florida.

SPEAKER_173: You can turn the lights out, Saks.

SPEAKER_164: Just leave me holding the bag. I'm like the last one in San Francisco I'm going to be turning out the lights.

SPEAKER_174: So did that tip the scale for you?

SPEAKER_110: I'm like, I'm definitely out of here. I'm like, if the boss of San Francisco is out of here, I'm definitely out of here. But I have some people and some other people

SPEAKER_31: to convince. In fairness to Nancy Pelosi, she's sitting on a ton of equities and she doesn't want to pay Capgains in California.

SPEAKER_28: So you've got to be fair to her. It's not like she wants to pay for the ridiculous spending in California when she does, you know, cash out all those chips. I guess, Freyberg, let's go to you to talk about the new variant. Maybe you could tell us how to pronounce it because there seems to be some debate about the pronunciation of this and what's your take

SPEAKER_57: on it? Were you in a frat in college? You have to memorize

SPEAKER_182: the Greek alphabet.

SPEAKER_82: I went to school at night. So I didn't have the college experience. I think it's

SPEAKER_183: Omicron, but that's the Omicron.

SPEAKER_185: Omicron.

SPEAKER_183: Try it again,

SPEAKER_185: Jake. One last time.

SPEAKER_183: It's not a Transformer.

SPEAKER_189: Omicron. There's no N. Omicron.

SPEAKER_191: Let's unitize the Greek alphabet. Megatron? It's not a Transformer, Jake.

SPEAKER_193: Omicron. I missed you, Zach. Wait,

SPEAKER_194: how many miles away from here? Let's go get a Cuban sandwich after this. Yeah, come over here.

SPEAKER_183: Why aren't you guys together right now? I don't get it. I thought you guys would be in the same room.

SPEAKER_196: Let's go to the Cuban deli and play, I don't know, Cuban sandwich chicken.

SPEAKER_197: Yes. Who could eat less bites as we lose our weight?

SPEAKER_28: I have the place. I got the sandwich place over in Little Havana. That's unbelievable. But anyway, continue. Tell us if it's the end of the world

SPEAKER_198: or no worry.

SPEAKER_182: No, I mean, at this point, there's three things that scientists are looking out for data on.

SPEAKER_200: One is kind of the innate transmissibility of this variant. The second is, which is like, you know, the R-naught in an unvaccinated population. The second is immune evasion, meaning it can get around antibodies or get around people that are vaccinated or have had the virus. And then third is kind of the severity, right? Which is like, how many people translate into

SPEAKER_201: hospitalized cases. So every day, there's, you know, varying data and information coming out. There's an incredible spike in South African surveillance data and testing data. Right now, as of today,

SPEAKER_200: I think 25% of people getting tested in South Africa are testing positive. Okay. Wow. That's stunning. And yeah, and only about a quarter of the population is vaccinated there. So this will be pretty telling pretty quickly on if hospitalizations start to climb and if the disease severity in an unvaccinated population kind of matches or mimics what we've seen with other variants. This variant is quite different. So there's like 30 mutations on the spike protein here. Normally, you'll see an evolution where one mutation leads to another variant leads to another variant and, you know, they call it a new variant when there's enough kind of differential behavior of the virus. So there's always mutations happening. But once a mutation causes a change in behavior, they know that. So normally, you see kind of an evolutionary track where there's like one mutation and another and another and so on. In this case, this mutation set is so far away from anything else that exists. There's like 30 new mutations that popped up on this protein on this sequence that sequences for this protein that it's like such a different virus. This is a major upgrade. Yeah. When did they...

SPEAKER_205: It's so different. It's almost like... It's like a new virus altogether.

David Sacks: It's almost like it's not a naturally occurring virus that behaves like other viruses do.

SPEAKER_206: Okay. So cutting the conspiracy... When did China upgrade the virus?

SPEAKER_182: Let me cut the conspiracy theory for a second and just say what the kind of current consensus thinking is of what may have caused this incredible change. One is that someone or some people that have severe immune-compromised systems had a virus in them that did not kill them but just kept circulating in their bodies for months and months and months

SPEAKER_200: and mutated so much that it got to the point and this is what's really interesting. It got to the point that it mutated such that it can now transmit amongst a vaccinated population. So think about the virus finally found a way out of the floodgates and the floodgates are blocked in by vaccinated people and so that's kind of one reasonable explanation. The other one is that South Africa is just a monitoring station, right? There's a whole big chunk of Africa where we have

SPEAKER_201: no surveillance going on. There's no genetic sequencing going on and there could have been anywhere in Southern Africa or even in Central Africa that these viruses could have been circulating amongst populations for the last year and a half with no surveillance or testing or sequencing and all of a sudden one person travels to South Africa and boom, this thing pops up on the radar and everyone's like, oh wow, look at what we just stumbled into. So look, one thing that seems pretty certain, this variant is going to be everywhere fast. Like it is so transmissible by some estimates and you can read Trevor Bedford or there's a bunch of great folks on Twitter. You can kind of follow their writings on this but Trevor's done a great job. The R-naught on this

SPEAKER_200: could be as high as 40 which is, you know, measles by comparison is 12 to 13. Now it's more likely that the R-naught is somewhere between 7 and 20 but regardless it seems to be that high in the presence of an immune immunized population meaning it's got incredibly good evasiveness around people that have the vaccine or have had the virus. So it's going to spread like crazy.

SPEAKER_210: I think this whole thing is a complete fucking nothing burger.

SPEAKER_182: Yeah. And so that's the other side. It's like maybe it's just not a big deal and it ends up being like Delta and it sort of spreads around. A lot of people don't know they have it and then all of a sudden

SPEAKER_210: it's even more impotent than Delta.

SPEAKER_182: So that is that is definitely something that people are saying because there's not a lot of new hospitalizations spiking in South Africa. We're not seeing severe cases of all these people.

SPEAKER_200: anecdotal right now so we'll know in the next two weeks of whether this actually changes hospitalizations.

SPEAKER_07: To me this is more of an example of yet again how unreliable

SPEAKER_36: our institutions are than anything else. We knew nothing about this. We had a couple of cases and the mainstream media literally in a moment where there was frankly not a lot of news. Slowest news day

SPEAKER_216: of the year is the day after Thanksgiving for people. This is when it broke Friday after Thanksgiving.

SPEAKER_36: Exactly. Essentially manufactured this histrionic reaction to something where we didn't know anything about it. We didn't know

SPEAKER_07: how important it was. We didn't know how bad it was. We didn't know anything. And then what happened was

SPEAKER_36: then the financial media took that and then ran with it basically trying to whip up even more histrionics but within the financial markets which then feed the mainstream news cycle and we had this whole loop going down the toilet bowl and lo and behold I think what we're actually learning is what we should have just waited a few days to realize beforehand which is it's not that severe but to the extent that it is we've sequenced it we have vaccines and we can deploy these quickly. Oh by the way at the same time the New England Journal of Medicine put out this study which basically showed how important and efficacious these vaccines are so the fact that we're even talking about this to me is just

SPEAKER_34: absolutely emotional and not practical or useful.

SPEAKER_218: The big question Chamath is it's not about whether it is

SPEAKER_200: functionally a nothing burger or not but what's really important now is how policy makers are going to respond to this because there is a press cycle there is a bit of a hysteria everyone's asking me about it everyone's freaked out about it everyone's worrying about it and so the policy makers are going to

SPEAKER_201: respond to that sentiment and the question is are we about to face more lockdowns and things that are going to be adverse to the economy and how are markets going to react not necessarily

SPEAKER_200: to the true severity of the risk of this this variant but more importantly to the policy decisions that are going to come out of the perceived risk of this variant and that seems pretty scary right now.

SPEAKER_108: Well you saw Biden I mean one thing I'll give him is this I mean he's I think he's done a bad job on a lot of other things

SPEAKER_110: but on this his political instincts were sound which is he said very clearly we're not going to go back to lockdowns and I think he was really speaking to democratic governors when he said that people like Avid Newsom and our poker friend JB Pritzker and Whitmer in Michigan listen guys we're not going back to lockdowns no matter what happens with this Omicron thing we're not going to do school closures we've seen how unpopular the school closures were in this off-year election it was one of the big issues that helped Glenn Youngkin win Virginia which had previously voted for Biden by 10 so I think you saw the message come down from on high we're not going to go back to lockdowns now I think though that what that does is admit and I think what Omicron will show is that lockdowns didn't work at all at most lockdowns and all these measures whether it's mass mandates or whatever all it did was delay the timing of the virus what you're going to see is Omicron will be everywhere very soon there's nothing that policymakers can do to stop it the only thing that seems to work is vaccines and booster shots there's some good data around the third data the third booster preventing serious cases other than vaccines and I guess the one thing policymakers could do would be to get red tape out of the way so that they can more quickly come up with a booster to this new variant that would be the one thing they could really help with but otherwise nothing policymakers have done has helped and I think this is going to be an admission

SPEAKER_123: that ultimately lockdowns were a disaster for the economy

SPEAKER_224: nobody could argue lockdowns are not a disaster for the economy but in the early days if we go back to you know

SPEAKER_01: when the this pandemic

SPEAKER_57: started we really didn't know how to handle this we did not have any treatments and we were ventilating people and essentially killing them by blowing oxygen into their lungs too you know aggressively from what I understand

SPEAKER_28: so in a way

SPEAKER_226: wasn't it okay well I mean

SPEAKER_28: I think it's a debate because we're not ventilating people now as much as we were right we're flipping them over etc but the

SPEAKER_57: the lockdowns did correct me if I'm wrong Friedberg at least allow us to not have the hospitals overrun

SPEAKER_28: like they were in New York and Italy and that was I don't know if that's true I honestly don't know if the hospital I don't know

SPEAKER_182: if I don't know if the lockdowns actually changed the we don't know

SPEAKER_200: look I'm going to sound like some and now we're going to you know kind of enter into this controversial territory but sure let's do it and how much they really did change the trajectory

SPEAKER_182: of the spread of the virus and yes they probably did have a muting effect but you know it's unclear what the trade-off was and whether it was really worthwhile and at the end of the day a few days and a few weeks after they started people were over them and they

SPEAKER_02: started meeting on their own we didn't know how deadly it was though at that time we didn't know

SPEAKER_110: admittedly we didn't know a lot at the beginning of the pandemic and so you have to you have to I think give people a break for the mistakes that were made say in March or April I think by May it was pretty clear the lockdowns weren't going to work if they had worked states like California wouldn't have had 10 pages of exceptions based on how politically connected you were so for example the local bartender had her bar run out of business by lockdowns but Hollywood studios would get a break on their productions but so we know that lockdowns didn't work otherwise it wouldn't have been these exceptions and we have data from Sweden remember all the hysteria about Sweden basically was doing nothing they weren't doing lockdowns they weren't doing mandates they were going for herd immunity and they were killing their people well guess what Sweden's data was no worse to anybody else's the hospitals weren't overrun and I think what Omicron will finally show is that our whole policy since the beginning of COVID whether it was two weeks to stop the spread or these vaccine mandates or even this idea of herd immunity it's all been to try and put the genie back in the bottle in other words it's been to try and defeat COVID it's to put this virus back in the lab I guess you could say defeat it I mean it really is something that we're going to have to learn to live with and to manage and so you know vaccine

SPEAKER_182: it'll be a seasonal disease and it'll

SPEAKER_200: be something like the flu in terms of how it cycles each year and it seems unlikely that it's going to be eradicated through vaccination

SPEAKER_02: let me let me pull back in there may be a

SPEAKER_243: variant that matters but this is not it and all like

SPEAKER_36: instead what we really need to do is have a process of not overreacting because there's going to be n number of these into the future and the only thing that really decays the vaccine's potency or sorry the COVID's potency is having it go through vaccinated people and thank god we had so many people vaccinated because this is what we're so again this whole thing is a nothing burger let's

SPEAKER_03: just move on it's stupid

SPEAKER_190: well so so the market the markets are obviously reacting maybe we should talk they're not

SPEAKER_03: reacting to that I think that they

David Friedberg: are an excuse like people

SPEAKER_48: want to trim positions

SPEAKER_250: and this

SPEAKER_36: I started to trim and I'm so glad that I did because it was you know 10 days ahead or a week ahead of all of this craziness now look at what's happening in the markets today people are going massively risk off you kicked in the teeth yeah and the paper company and the you know the specialty chemicals company have actually done reasonably well which

SPEAKER_252: is nothing that

SPEAKER_36: any of us have exposure to or you know some

SPEAKER_40: of us don't have exposure to so go ahead Jason

SPEAKER_253: can we can we can we can we then look at this as hey the

SPEAKER_57: era of we're going to give a lot of credit to companies for you know what's going to you know and then many other stocks and obviously crypto falls into this this idea of giving people a decade

SPEAKER_82: of forward looking credit maybe is going to come back to I think it's too early let's weigh these and look at

SPEAKER_36: or a market drawdown in this case we're in the middle of a massive growth sector drawdown okay the the multiples on these companies are shrinking companies like snowflake and Peloton sure cloudflare zoom we're trading at 70 to 100

SPEAKER_07: times revenue and people are reevaluating whether those multiples are worth it irrespective of the quality of the company because those are very high

SPEAKER_36: quality companies so we're just okay and it's not broad based the real problem is all these companies that I think raised a lot of money in private markets are

SPEAKER_07: now going to get stuck because if the public markets have compressed multiples by 30 to

SPEAKER_36: all all of the ones that sort of were planning IPOs in the next 12 to 18 months are probably in a little bit more of a

SPEAKER_266: challenging spot than they were before

SPEAKER_182: we're seeing a lot of I mean is it

SPEAKER_200: not true that we're seeing a bunch of these SPAC deals and new issuances come out to market with converts attached to them protect my investment to some degree at least that's what I'm hearing from bankers is kind of the rumbling in the SPAC and pipe market right now is these kind of protective new types of equities that are coming out in order that the investors can keep their mark on their private valuation rounds but get the company out to public but the public market is getting a better deal than

SPEAKER_13: 7% of the audience

SPEAKER_271: but you're saying you wouldn't invest in these converts for these kind of companies that need that

SPEAKER_07: you're focusing too much on the symptom ology and not the

SPEAKER_36: root cause the minute that you're trying to wrap all these features around something you know the yeah

SPEAKER_182: I will say one important point about what's going on a lot of people have said this is a crash and that term has been used a lot but you know because people that

SPEAKER_200: have only traded in markets and have for all you guys it seems to me that this time what's going on is a devaluation that doesn't have systemic risk attached to it if these well we had this

SPEAKER_07: happen

SPEAKER_36: in 2018 because in 2018 it looked like there was going to be inflation Powell you early to tell whether this is just a short term opportunity for people who have made a lot of money to de-risk and again Satya Nadella just sold 300 million of stock wasn't it half of his position

SPEAKER_278: yeah I mean that to me was significant

SPEAKER_36: Elon Musk sold you know 10 billion I've

SPEAKER_182: systemic risk in here

SPEAKER_110: yeah I mean so well look first of what's going on here I mean Jamath is right that over the last four weeks we've seen a 30 to 50 percent decline in these tech growth stocks what is the reason for that interest rate expectations driven by inflation for the first six months of the year all you heard out of Washington the administration was this inflation was transitory that story is basically that collapsed because now people can see that as persistent they're now pricing in the risk of interest rate increases

SPEAKER_282: now Sachs you're breaking up he's done he's toast he's toast he's

SPEAKER_201: probably

SPEAKER_01: still talking he's probably still talking he's on a monologue right now yeah Henry

SPEAKER_201: Belcaster can

SPEAKER_36: he has prepared

SPEAKER_289: speech writing whatever

SPEAKER_122: that guy's name is I'm sure it's annotated so he can go back to that point in his diet absolutely yes

SPEAKER_290: I mean I think actually this is an AI version this is like a deep fake of Sachs that we

SPEAKER_57: what private market companies do in this situation well you know I was advising them if you can get at a high valuation and you can get clean terms you

SPEAKER_224: runway to land the plane correct yeah one

SPEAKER_182: way to think about that is it's less about people often use that high multiple to refer to this year's numbers but what the market is doing typically in those situations is they're saying the multiple in the future will be x and so they're saying we project 5 10 years out this revenue and I'm paying

SPEAKER_200: one to five times revenue you know for seven to ten years out or whatever the right kind of way that they're framing that up but then the commentators on the market pricing come in and they say hey you guys are crazy you're paying a hundred times revenue and make three and a half percent by putting my money in for a 10 year bond and now I horizon or three year horizon and if interest rates are really high you're betting on this year's numbers I

SPEAKER_57: think we should talk a little bit about this inflation concept I did a little tweets room you know

SPEAKER_82: about this sort of transitory versus you know perpetual and I do think we've talked about it here we've crossed that rubric on

SPEAKER_57: my haircuts costing more my stakes costing more I've got to charge more for whatever my services is is there any way to unwind this inflation it seems to me like the

SPEAKER_31: reason we've had no inflation for so many decades of our entire lives like I mean jeans in the 1980s cost the same as jeans now was because

SPEAKER_57: maxed out perhaps too much globalization right that we learned that we actually have risk associated with

SPEAKER_302: this you know supply chain and how much more efficiency is there in making a pair of jeans I don't know if we're going to be making them in a slurry so is there a path to unwind it you know rich people not having their equities be worth as much then maybe trickles down it's unprecedented right I

SPEAKER_07: think what happens in the stock market is

SPEAKER_36: absolutely irrelevant it doesn't matter I mean you know we focus on it a lot but you know when we talk about the core structural economy the stock market is a lagging indicator of a whole bunch of things sometimes it's cash flow a lot of the times it's emotion

SPEAKER_303: money supply I

SPEAKER_36: I think that there's a much more important thing which we've talked about which is that you know we have said and I have said that coming out of the pandemic we are moving the world back into a more you know decentralized place right the centralization was this just in time you know single supply chain single point of failure existence and

SPEAKER_07: if you look inside of China the thing that they want more than anything else is to become even more centralized right I don't know if you saw today

SPEAKER_36: but there was an article in the wall street journal about how China is going to create basically an overall holding company to own all the rare earths that are made inside of China and then to apportion them out as they see fit so the government will now control a

David Friedberg: it exactly so so China is pushing

SPEAKER_07: more and more for centralization we so for example you know myself and fortress we did this deal a year ago to bring this company public called MP materials and the whole idea was to start to build diversity in the

SPEAKER_36: supply chain to build a decentralized supply of all kinds of things in that case it was around these rare earths because we saw this thing happening in China okay the problem is those kinds of investments are very much few and far between so the solution to fixing the core structural inflation we have is going to take a decade it's going to take trillions of dollars of investment and more than that I think it's going to take an enormous amount of coordination between private and public participants and I concerned about it like and I think I've explained this to you but look we have massively under invested in the level of infrastructure we need to support ourselves yeah we outsource like as a simple example like starting in 2016 we absolutely decapitated the ability for the United States to invest in our own true energy independence okay you basically fell off of a cliff and you would say well that was the right capital allocation decision because of climate change well it turns out today not really because we have absolutely no investments on the climate change side right we don't have rare earth we don't have lithium we don't have nickel we don't have cobalt we don't have graphite so we actually can't make the batteries which means

SPEAKER_07: for energy while

SPEAKER_36: we also created incentives to decarbonize so this is what I mean by these issues have been building up for years Jason yeah decades inflation is now here I think it's here to last I've been pretty consistent about this and this is the real reason why we're going to have a few years of pain and so money losing unprofitable businesses selling

SPEAKER_68: future cash flows in 10 to 12 years I mean some people will buy them but I won't be

SPEAKER_201: I just sent you a link to freight rates for cargo ships coming from China to LA and you'll see in the last you know call it month and a half or so you know starting in April it was like whatever $2,000 and it climbed up September it

SPEAKER_200: started to decline it dropped by 50% and it continuing to drop week after week right now and we're seeing the same in lumber prices right now I'll send you and so there's a bit of a mixed bag emerging right we are seeing in some of these markets that prices have declined by 50 75% in just the last few weeks supply chain distortions have sort of right sized and the demand and the supply started to balance out a yeah to the consumer and so there are a number of points of view that say look these pricing issues that we've been seeing in the recent term may in fact still be transitory and we may see them work their way out at the end of 2022 and we're starting to see the early signs of that actually playing out and so I would say the jury is still out generally we've obviously doubled the amount of US dollars that are in supply or increased by 50% a year we've got you know interest rates at zero we've got you know people aren't going to reduce their wages right

SPEAKER_201: wages are only

SPEAKER_36: conforming mortgage I think it kicks in in January and essentially it basically allows US homeowners to have a million dollar mortgage and have it essentially be conforming now that's like a you know pretty large increase I up more money I think that people will spend that money and so

SPEAKER_07: even on the consumer side I think that you have an impetus to spend I was the one thing I wanted to say I wanted to clarify something I

SPEAKER_40: said earlier you

SPEAKER_68: know it's very difficult to buy these long dated businesses promising huge

SPEAKER_36: cash flows in the future there is one kind of version of that company though that you on a risk adjusted basis in my

SPEAKER_34: opinion great bets to make but otherwise you know you want to be allocated to

David Friedberg: spending a lot of money on research and are going to have future products it doesn't necessarily have to be a lot of money but that the outcome in success is

SPEAKER_34: so asymmetric those are really interesting to me businesses in

SPEAKER_57: Friedberg about some of the indigestion is starting to work its way through the system and there could be two things occurring at the same time we could be have more money supply prices could be going up homes could be going up lumber could be coming down but that doesn't mean that the person constructing a home is just going to magically say oh wow I spent less on lumber I can take a million dollars off the price of this new home or 100,000 even whatever it is but competition does seem to drive prices lower and so if we

SPEAKER_302: used cars are going people who bought used cars two years ago are selling them for the same price so they got two years for free in their car even though they put 10,000 miles on it

SPEAKER_68: by the 2.1 million immigrants than we would have normally based on the run rate of how

SPEAKER_07: immigration should have worked so whether that was people being rejected at the border or whether that was people deciding not to come to the United States because of their feelings for Trump we lost 2.1 million eligible workers over those four years of his presidency we also had a bunch of people who had degrees in certain jobs who basically gave up on their profession and we talked about this

SPEAKER_36: before which is the teacher who decides it's better off to just go work at Amazon right than actually be a teacher because you actually get paid more now

SPEAKER_07: and then the third thing is that there's a ton of people that are making an enormous amount of money through inheritance and through

SPEAKER_290: more people in the country well

SPEAKER_36: all of it just means that there are

SPEAKER_07: just fewer people to do the work which means you're going to have to pay more to get the work done

SPEAKER_82: yeah we're going or we could let more people in the country based on their specific skills you

SPEAKER_36: put these two things together structural inflation is here we've under invested

SPEAKER_07: under invested at the macro level and

SPEAKER_82: Keith for boy had this tweet and I think we talked about it four or five episodes ago a bunch of capital allocators are saying you know what was a great run but I think I'm going to opt out I'm going to move on to my next adventure I in the face of massive technological change from AI biology etc so I thought it would be interesting to talk about all of our decisions to stay in the capital allocation game and what we think about this retiring group of capital allocators who are let's face it retiring at 50 or well

SPEAKER_333: I had coffee with Keith this morning and then last 10 years I mean over the last 10 years we basically had record good times because of this low interest rate environment right and low interest rate environments are fantastic for growth stocks now it looks like we're moving into an environment in which inflation is certainly not transitory we don't know how long it's going to last for and that creates an expectation of interest rates are going to rise and so the next decade may not be as good for growth stocks and you've also had over the last year or two price levels have been much higher so you've got to figure there's a whole cohort of VCs who've had a great decade who've made a lot of money and now they're asking does it really make sense for me to sign up for another decade that may not look

SPEAKER_200: an impact and it's technically difficult so that's kind of where I get drawn to spend my time but I can understand people whose job it is to manage other people's money and invest it for them and they participate in the profits they generate realizing after some period of time like hey I bought a bunch of lottery tickets if you buy lottery tickets at the local 7-11 every day and one day you hit the 12 million dollar jackpot you're not going back to 7-11 the next day to keep buying lottery tickets and so in the context of being a money manager to generate returns and that being kind of your principal interest and you hit a return outcome that statistically will not happen again I don't see the point of the hassle of going back to work I could see the psychology of saying that that's enough for me I do think however most VCs are truly you know we can kind of generalize all we want but as we all know we have lots of friends who are VCs and I'd say generally the majority of them are very intellectually curious and driven and what I am seeing is a shift of them come back and they always ask for a meeting and I'm like sure and then they're like I want to work on climate change solutions and so what I'm seeing is this kind of second act happening now and we've seen it with guys like Chris Saka and folks who had these massive outcomes in for my children and they all kind of come back around so one of the things I'm seeing is this kind of second act phenomenon where VCs are moving away from being pure play technologists and making money to saying I want to do stuff that's a little bit more meaningful and altruistic coming into climate change and as a result we're seeing insane funding happening in climate change tech companies or climate tech or whatever the heck the label is this week stuff that in my opinion doesn't make any sense businesses that aren't real businesses technologies that don't actually make sense it'll never work out but hey that's always been the case in venture right one out of a thousand works and you know changes the world but we are seeing that and that that's kind of a personal observation as I'm seeing a lot of these second acts going after climate change

SPEAKER_57: this last year is like 18 months pretty exhausting as a capital allocator to try to make sense of the world and get your bearings it's like going through multiple storms does that make you more engaged I get the sense knowing you for a

SPEAKER_198: intellectually stimulated now

SPEAKER_340: me too I I I I mean look I

SPEAKER_40: I I left the money management business five years ago I guess and honestly it was a very hard path but

SPEAKER_36: it's been the most rewarding because

SPEAKER_07: I was able to focus on the things that I wanted look if you do this job well this job is voting for change with your money and making change using money and that's great because money is not that useful beyond a very small amount and then you have to question like what are your real priorities so yeah like grinding away at something that

SPEAKER_36: matters to me I always find fulfilling and I feel like I am an athlete whose muscle doesn't decay by my mid 30s but probably decays in my 70s or 80s which is my brain and

SPEAKER_40: i'm only you know i'm only i'm a rookie so i'm excited i'm granted

SPEAKER_126: the fact that things are compressing or maybe there'll be less startups or less capital allocators

SPEAKER_57: involved what i've seen in my career at post dot com era web 2.0 amazing time to be alive amazing time because there were less anybody who started a company after the dot com bust

SPEAKER_31: or after the 2008 financial crisis table right now from founders to board members to investors it just seems like everybody is in some sort of mad dash to secure some bag by any means necessary and there's no focus on the customers and the product and the team everybody is living in some just manic

SPEAKER_161: money grab

SPEAKER_182: when

SPEAKER_201: you're in the middle of all humans ultimately are going to be driven by a desire to leave something in the world to make an impact of some sort

SPEAKER_200: and at some point all the folks who have made a ton of money in this cycle are asking themselves how do I leave an impact in the world and I still for people I do think web 3 also offers another path of opportunity for folks where they can kind of rewrite the internet and think about how to reinvent the social model for humanity the economic model for humanity the governance model for humanity the communications model for humanity and web 3 creates that that kind of you know that that that visionary kind of platform opportunity and folks are all excited about what's next so you know once the dust settles a little bit and you put some money in your pocket and you realize you know it's not going to change your life more than you

SPEAKER_333: we don't know how long it's going to take but there's no question that multiples and valuations are going to come down and there's a lot of younger founders and investors who never lived through a bear market or a down cycle and they're about to get a rude awakening so look I think it's a little different for us because we're all principals at our firms and so therefore if we're not happy about something we could simply effectuate a change in strategy but if you're one of 20 partners at a giant firm even if you're the most successful one it's hard for you to move that ship and you know your returns get divided by you know it's one over n where n is the number of full partner shares and you know if you've just made a ton of money over the last 10 years and you're thinking about whether you want to sign up for going through a bunch of choppy waters there's a lot of good reasons right now for people to reevaluate now look Keith and I were both discussing this in the context of hey this would be great for us because we're not going anywhere but but Keith did think that because the macro picture is changing that is one

SPEAKER_352: more reason for people who are on the fence and thinking about retiring to move forward with that all

SPEAKER_01: right so I think we've talked about capital allocation and we

SPEAKER_63: over like the tech

SPEAKER_182: community seems has this kind of consistent trend of going to these like esoteric kind of call it originally artistically

SPEAKER_201: created events and spaces it was like Sundance and then it was burning man and now it's like Miami Art Basel and kind of ruining it taking it for themselves

SPEAKER_08: you know hey now it's tech week in Miami but

SPEAKER_362: it's literally

SPEAKER_239: bad for all the real creatives yeah

SPEAKER_333: we're the ugly Americans who come in and ruin the artisanal you know feel of the place and flood the place with cash but look no one difference between Florida or Miami in particular and California and San Francisco in particular is nobody hates money or success over here they're happy for you know all these rich people to come in and spend their money they really believe in capitalism over here you've got this huge Cuban immigrant population who had direct experience with socialism and Argentinians and people from South America and I mean they teach their kids in schools the evils of socialism

SPEAKER_365: so yeah nobody here is looking to purge the rich that's

SPEAKER_00: nice it's it's funny Sacks because the Bay Area right the Bay Area has a huge South Asian population right and a huge immigrant population why

SPEAKER_201: why is that not the case in California right why is this huge immigrant population whether they come from South America Latin America or they come from South Asia India China do we

SPEAKER_200: not have the same sort of response here for you know pushback against socialist tendencies and and the push for the big difference

SPEAKER_34: in South

SPEAKER_36: Florida is that those immigrant communities were politically active and got really ingrained in the political process and so they were a loud voice you know systemically what happens in South Asian families is we just don't do that it's just not a thing and in fact if you look inside of our countries the politicians are just just the absolute sketchiest most brutal folks and so you know when you have people that got you know double E degrees from IIT the last thing that they're thinking is like I want to run for mayor of Santa

SPEAKER_34: population I

SPEAKER_82: have to say San Francisco has become truly dystopian I went to San Francisco to see a comedy show Hasan Minaj who is a big fan of this

SPEAKER_216: pod he is an incredible show by the way he's amazing

SPEAKER_57: and he did a show about MBS and him getting into

SPEAKER_31: where and it was cordoned off with cop cars at every intersection and there's no cars in the street and I was like what's going on is there some police activity or and I was like they're like no the Louis Vuitton store got knocked off I kid you not every single store has had every single window boarded up like it's a hurricane season but they all did them in pitch black so it must have been like one vendor came and did this for every vendor but like Zara the gap Nike every single storefront has been boarded up and then there are security guards outside and you have to make an appointment to go Christmas shopping and literally there have road blockades of multiple cars at every intersection because these smashing grabs have become so brazen and dangerous there were 30 or 40 people involved in that one at the Louis Vuitton store can you imagine you're shopping for Christmas and this is the logical

SPEAKER_333: result of everything I've been warning about since the beginning of the year you have prosecutors like Jason Boudin who have essentially decriminalized theft by refusing to prosecute it after the Louis Vuitton looting he comes out and says well don't bring this noise from out of town that's what he calls crime is noise and he's trying to pretend like it didn't arise in San Francisco like somehow it's come from out of town no you created it by refusing

SPEAKER_335: to prosecute these types of crimes and then after talking tough the first thing he did he already out on bail chase it talks tough when he charges them but the charges are never actually brought they're put down thrown out

SPEAKER_333: and it is dystopian

SPEAKER_57: and we couldn't find a place to have a drink every single bar we wanted to have like a post comedy show drink

SPEAKER_82: and by the way Hassan's a huge fan of the pod we talked for an hour of the show he brought

SPEAKER_333: from south asia i'd say indian americans chinese americans they've been spectacularly successful in the united states maybe they haven't been as politically active as say the cuban americans or argentinian americans in florida but they've been incredibly successful you had another example of that this week with jack leaving twitter his replacement is parag agarwal he's an indian american so you now have you know indian immigrants i guess first or second generation running google with sundar sasha and adela and microsoft the ceo of adobe shantanu narayan the ceos of mastercard nokia and ibm all indian americans so there's no question that people of color can be spectacularly

SPEAKER_386: successful in the united states and i think those communities are too don't mess with the browns hold on those those communities those communities are so busy

SPEAKER_335: availing themselves of the opportunity of the abundant opportunities for success in this country that they haven't been basically involved in politics

SPEAKER_386: because they haven't been complaining about anything they've just been succeeding too busy winning too busy

SPEAKER_82: winning yeah i think there's a there's a viral joke you live you're if you're a ceo in silicon valley you live long enough to see yourself replaced by an indian ceo uh that trended

SPEAKER_390: hallelujah

SPEAKER_01: like look satya you have satya sundar um there's like four or five other examples but uh it's now

SPEAKER_57: uh just absolutely

SPEAKER_31: a great triumph it's amazing for our society that a lot of people who are immigrants or sons of immigrants come here and run the largest most dynamic important companies in the world this is a incredible win

SPEAKER_302: and we have to reboot immigration in this country i believe in this very strongly that we need to get more intelligent people here and if you and build companies we have to really open that up that was one of the huge failings of the trump presidency and now going into biden who doesn't seem to care about immigration either both of these people is huge fails both parties do not want to bring intelligent people here

SPEAKER_268: i want to talk about mike bloomberg 750 million donation

SPEAKER_57: explain to

SPEAKER_396: people what happened he's given 750 to charter schools am i correct

SPEAKER_34: first of all mike's a boss i've known

SPEAKER_36: before i tell this story of what he did you know mike was the largest donator donor to johns hopkins and for years he would donate without any fanfare and this is something that i've actually copied from him i've given money to my alma mater not anywhere near the same amount as he has but you know after he passed a billion dollars of donations he made it public and he was able to make johns hopkins permanently need blind and so it's kind of like johns hopkins became this bastion to attract the smartest kids period bar none right and everybody gets and everybody gets their their way paid basically so he announced

SPEAKER_07: the program 750 million dollars over the next four or five years i think to get 150 000 kids jason

SPEAKER_36: tell me if i got this wrong um into charter schools um all around the country and he basically just talked about how you know the pandemic has really let our kids down uh in every single way possible and he had these the leader of the california teachers union and it was so odious the things that she said and the biggest quote was basically like you can recall gavin newsom and you can recall the mayor of the city but you can't

SPEAKER_215: recall me so i'm just going to do what i want and it

SPEAKER_333: weren't happy with what's being taught in the schools and the

SPEAKER_402: unions and the politicians who are beholden to them are completely arrogant about this and explicitly say to the parents you don't get to decide what your by the way

SPEAKER_36: arrogant is the right word David if you read these quotes in the wall street journal article it's disgusting the way this woman talks about our kids it's really disgusting and

SPEAKER_333: well it takes a rare Democrat like Bloomberg to basically stand up to them I mean Biden certainly doesn't because they are the number one special Democratic Party in terms of the manpower and boots in the ground and donations you will never hear a politician like Gavin Newsom ever stand up to them because he

SPEAKER_31: 100% of people in America know that choice and competition equals better outcomes better products that's not up for debate and somehow they were able to flip people's thinking that no no competition in schools was more equitable and that created more equity in the world how did they do that or how did they pull this off they just paid everybody off

SPEAKER_36: they didn't do that they never gave parents a choice because parents didn't know a choice was possible we took a system that's my point how did they

SPEAKER_408: dilute people into thinking

SPEAKER_36: I'll tell you yeah no they didn't have to dilute people they just had to basically use their money to pay off a small cohort of individuals to basically back their own view that's it here here's some of her quotes if you want to read them number one there's no such thing as learning loss because Mike was basically saying that you know these kids have stopped learning and there's a huge learning she said there's no

SPEAKER_07: such thing as learning loss she said in an interview with LA magazine our kids didn't lose anything it's okay that hold on it's okay that our babies

SPEAKER_36: may not have learned their times tables they learned resilience that's honestly that's a crock that's a crock of who is

SPEAKER_411: this person and how do we get her out of office and what

SPEAKER_36: recall me that's really come on

SPEAKER_412: let's go this is

SPEAKER_36: Cecily

SPEAKER_40: Cecily Maillard Cruz the head of the Los Angeles teachers somebody

SPEAKER_224: start recall cecily.org we'll recall all of them I think this recalling trend is brilliant like if people are absolutely not doing their job yes recall them

SPEAKER_36: she should be allowed obviously to be a great representative for LA school teachers and fight on their behalf that's what unions and union leaders are supposed to do but something tells me between that goal and how she expressed herself here something has happened and that's corrupted her go to market if you will that I think is really scary

SPEAKER_136: it's a tell she has an arrogance there in those quotes that's just obvious

SPEAKER_333: look the thing about these policies these progressive policies is they hurt the communities that they pretend and private tutors

SPEAKER_335: the exact same thing is true of defund the police and this decarceration and deprosecution the communities that get hit the hardest are the ones that are exposed to the most

SPEAKER_333: crime they're basically the most depoverished areas the rich people can hire private security have high walls living gated communities and so we're seeing over and over again this is why Eric Adams who basically is the Bronx and Glenn Youngkin did extremely well in Virginia with minority communities so you know these and they tend to be primarily white progressives

SPEAKER_335: like Jason Boudin like George Gascon like

SPEAKER_415: they're the craziest ones they're the craziest ones they are they are so these

David Friedberg: are these are luxury beliefs that they that they learn absolutely in their virtue signaling is so just luxury

SPEAKER_417: luxury

SPEAKER_337: beliefs speaking of crazy woke progressives can we just go back to the twitter thing for a second because I think there's a little bit more to say

SPEAKER_333: there about Jack Dorsey stepping down because there's an article where he basically said that twitter does not need to follow the principles of the first amendment and its content moderation policy so here you have a company I mean you just look at the bookends of Jack Dorsey's reign as CEO and it's really a sharp contrast you had when Dick Costello was CEO 10

SPEAKER_335: years ago he said we are the free speech wing of the free speech party and now

SPEAKER_333: to Parag as CEO Dorsey's handpicked successor 10 or 11 years later basically saying that the first amendment does not matter they don't have to follow it when it comes to their content moderation so I think it's been a real sea change over there and how

SPEAKER_402: like on COVID like on many of these issues it

SPEAKER_57: could be simpler David it could just be that it's just really hard to run these things at scale and so they're all just saying it's so hard I don't want to run it anymore I don't

SPEAKER_420: think it's that hard I mean so here's the thing Mike Solana had a column where he's basically arguing that Jack Dorsey was the part I disagree with I agree things are only going to get worse once he's gone well no I know he

SPEAKER_57: is for freedom of speech he just didn't like to have to deal with the government and all these issues like I think it just became untenable because of the scale but he is a free speech guy same with Larry page this

SPEAKER_216: is on a personal basis we know this

SPEAKER_424: Edmund Burke

SPEAKER_333: had a great quote saying that all that is necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing Jack Dorsey may be a good man but he did nothing or very little to stop this agenda of censorship

SPEAKER_335: when they came to him and said they're going to de-platform a sitting president of the United States all he had to say was no no he had the veto power

SPEAKER_426: and he didn't use it

SPEAKER_355: listen he left I mean I hate to get into politics here because people hate this part of the show but he specifically believed

SPEAKER_302: that Trump should stay on the platform because he was president and he stood up to people for four

SPEAKER_182: power of the open internet I remember in the early days at Google the intention and the motivation behind the mission of Google was the democratization of access to information and by creating access to information and making all information all points of view all data available they believed that democracy would flourish around the world and that would enable these things that would allow these societies that were limited in information

SPEAKER_200: access information to flourish and transform themselves and I think the challenge arises when

SPEAKER_182: the political motivation where someone's voice that's being spoken is viewed and deemed to be harmful or viewed and deemed to be inflammatory or viewed and deemed to be too

SPEAKER_200: violent violence inducing and that's where the push comes to shove in these these kind of governance decisions that these folks end up having to make it's not an easy position fundamentally philosophically I think that everyone that's involved in the internet all technologists they all have the same intention and motivation and point of view but it is so friggin hard to navigate what ends up happening look

SPEAKER_182: look and by the way look at what happened to 4chan 4chan was supposed to Ellen and others got a lot of heat for clamping down on the free speech quote unquote of what was going on reddit yeah there's like revenge porn because there's a line and it's very hard your point of view on what the line should be is a difference of opinion and at the end of the day opinions are going to drive and yours

SPEAKER_296: David is based on your guy getting banned let's be clear here if

SPEAKER_195: download the call in app store right now call it app is available on Android Google play it on the call it app

SPEAKER_416: I had an incredible barley salad okay I want

SPEAKER_443: to respond to what Freeberg said okay so Freeberg is

SPEAKER_335: exactly closing argument is this Freeberg is exactly right about where the internet stood 10 years ago you're right that Zuck and Page and Dorsey all believed in the open internet they believed in the democratizing power of the internet when the green revolution happened in 2009 everybody was cheering so what changed I'll tell you what changed in 2016 they got a candidate elected who they didn't like and their principles were so skin deep basically so superficial that they completely flipped because they got one election where there's a result they didn't like and so they turned against democracy look twitter and democracy worked in 2016 the establishment lost because they had supported two decades of futile wars in the middle east trade policy with china that hollowed out jobs border policy that didn't make sense the American people sent the establishment a message in 2016 the establishment should have taken the note okay but they didn't instead what they did is blame social media for disinformation Russian collusion hate speech white supremacy what have you and since then they've been on a mission to ban those things from their social networks it is a total myth okay the reason why Trump won the election 2016 is because of the issues he ran on the establishment should have taken the note instead they've been on this wild goose chase attacking disinformation

SPEAKER_268: hey Nick can you just edit out that last part of David's I

SPEAKER_450: winner

SPEAKER_00: the biggest winner here is going to be TikTok because if Twitter does go forward with the standing yeah

SPEAKER_200: if they say look you can't put user generated content on our platform if it has video and images of personal of people without their consent and approval it's going to eliminate all of this democratization of access to video feeds of riots and crime and all sorts of things that have been a real big boon so TikTok is not going to do that TikTok is going to end up soaking up this whole market right for user

SPEAKER_28: generated content just so everybody knows what we're talking about the day

SPEAKER_57: after Jack left they said there's going to be a new safety and security again if safe then you can have it taken down and this has led to people thinking like you can't take a picture at a Warriors game of people in the background without getting the 20 people in the row to

SPEAKER_402: it it

SPEAKER_335: could have set a policy of listen if you have a non public person being harassed you can always take down basically unauthorized footage of that person it could have been a harassment policy instead they just banned all public video footage and you know it's going to be applied selectively here's my true okay but that message went viral on twitter the steel dossier went viral on twitter and yet there are no warning labels to this day despite the fact that that's been completely debunked I'm not trying to defend any specific politician in particular Jason I know you think this is all about Trump it's not it's about the double standard okay these censorship principles only exist so the employees of the company can censor one side of the debate they don't agree with you've got to admit that there is a ton

SPEAKER_386: of bias and one sidedness in the way these principles are enforced

SPEAKER_82: I agree there's bias I agree that these sandwich with right now that we're both going to look at and poke around and take two bites of so we can say spelt my guy the rain man david sacks we'll see you all next time bye bye