SPEAKER_00: open ai stole content everybody who leaves open ai start well the leadership that leaves starts another company the flipping from a non-profit to a for-profit there is definitely an ethical issue at open ai specifically with sam altman according to the people who worked for him now is he being unfairly treated is it like everybody's ganging up on him for some reason it doesn't feel that way if it was one or two people you could make that case but when it's like

SPEAKER_01: 10 or 20 people were saying i have ethical problems and they fired him for ethics it's

SPEAKER_02: interesting how the perspective on that is flipped because when the board fired sam altman everyone in technology twitter was like this is ridiculous the non-nerds are kicking out the nerds sam altman's a genius who is this this person on the board has a phd in art and now we're like the board

SPEAKER_06: was right this week in startups is brought to you by vanta compliance and security shouldn't be a deal breaker for startups to win new business vanta makes it easy for companies to get a sock to report fast twist listeners can get a thousand dollars off for a limited time at vanta.com twist northwest registered agent starting your business should be simple with northwest registered agent you can form your entire business identity in just 10 clicks in 10 minutes from llcs to trademarks domains to custom websites they've got you covered get more privacy more options and more done visit northwestregisteredagent.com twist today and scalable path since 2010 scalable path has connected businesses with top-tier remote developers deeply vetted and ready to deliver from javascript to machine learning they've helped over 300 companies tackle big projects and scale faster visit scalablepath.com twist for 20 off your first month hey everybody welcome to this week in startups

SPEAKER_07: i'm jason calacanis he's alex wilhelm x.com alex x.com jason we do this three days a week monday

Chamath Palihapitiya: wednesday friday we do it about uh 12 noon texas time you can plus or minus a couple of hours there back and forth follow the feeds twi startups on x follow me and alex we tweet it and linkedin we stream to now because they're a great partner and youtube go to youtube and type in this weekend startups i wanted to start today by just letting you know i'm still a little bit sick but i went to an infrared sauna there are these uh places now you can rent like a little suite because i had an infrared sauna at the old house i don't have one on the ranch yet and uh they have these little pods that are an infrared sauna okay it's like a um it's a franchisee there's like maybe eight of these little suites uh in a strip mall sauna cold plunge shower tv bluetooth speaker you know the whole kind of thing and it's it's decent sized room uh and you could have two people in the sauna perhaps um and there are double-sized saunas but man that infrared sauna and sweating it out with a little eucalyptus on a nice towel that really helped me i didn't do the cold plunge because i was like you know what if i'm under the weather here am i trying to build my resilient resilience or get resilient so i skipped the cold plunge but i started using um an app called go polar which presh who used to work for me did and it's a really cool app go ahead and search for go polar in your app store and download it if

SPEAKER_00: you're into cold plunges or saunas and tracking it they have a leaderboard and you score points and it's like a little gamified thing it's uh the long tail of apps and the long tail of software enabled by

SPEAKER_13: small teams is incredible so every little nook and cranny of hobby of idea is going to become a big deal because you're going to actually able to build those things it's kind of like the um i don't know

SPEAKER_01: if it's before your time bulletin board systems or message boards were a little bit before my time i'm familiar with them having read but um my first modem was 56k so oh okay yeah i started with actually a 300 bond modem yeah and then went to 1200 2400 4800 9600 19.2 and then 56k um i remember each of

Chamath Palihapitiya: those haze modems then tell modems along the way but the idea was if there was a community of people who were into something and it was a niche community uh you would never meet somebody in your neighborhood who was into that niche right now apps you know subreddits all these kind of you know discord servers have polarized these people no pun intended and so for folks out there looking

SPEAKER_01: for an opportunity no opportunity too small is my new startup advice just want to stop with that for a second no opportunities too small why because you can learn on a small opportunity you learn how to run a company you learn how to incorporate you learn how to hire a co-founder you learn all these little things and then you will eventually get frustrated that your community is too small and you can just talk to them say what else are you into oh you're into cold plunges oh you're into infrared saunas oh you're into fasting and then okay now you've got three things in your app you get the idea and so i encourage people don't be dissuade by vcs telling you this is too small of an idea of course they want you to go for a big idea because they want to get that outlier result but for me running founder university i would rather see more people tackle small projects get a win

Chamath Palihapitiya: under their belt get their confidence up i think really encouraging founders in 2025 when you hear us talking about uh static team size turning into compressed team size it's time for you to start thinking hey what if i had a little side hustle what if i had a little foundation you did that yourself with your sub stack i don't know what the sub stacks at but if i assume you're making tens of thousands of dollars from that your dependency on me here at this week in startups your dependency on tech crunch previously is different than it was prior to that and the media people realized this and they said you know what maybe it wouldn't be a bad idea to have 5k a month or 2k a month whatever little tiny trickle it is of my full-time salary coming in from this side hustle um so start something

SPEAKER_00: small start something you're passionate about why you'll wake up every day and want to build it and then when you get to the destination let's say it's a small destination so be it another one of

Chamath Palihapitiya: these really interesting apps i use is slopes where i track for the last four years my skiing and what i found was four years ago i was telling people about slopes and now in year four i i would say one out of five people i mentioned slopes to has it already so i was talking to dave morin a famous venture capitalist slow ventures um friend of mine and uh i was i just shared with him my slopes you know just hey how my season's going and he goes oh you didn't add me and i was like oh there it is people are starting to use these long tail of products and services one developer one founder you know two people could build a million dollar business you come to an adventure capitalist with a million dollar business they're going to be like oh yeah get out of here kid you come to me with a hundred thousand two hundred thousand in yearly revenue five ten k a month i'm going to be over the moon because i'm going to say you know what you just distinguish yourself from 999 people who have an idea today and you're the one person who turned that idea into 5k a month you know 50 people paying a hundred dollars a month whatever it is uh and so really want to inspire people to start companies and i think today's story about boom supersonic is a really good uh because of this meme that has been trending is a really good example i i tweeted it which is his resume on linkedin and where he worked before boom uh and boom just had their first supersonic flight um supersonic flight is not a big deal people have been doing it forever but for a private company to achieve this a startup is phenomenal right it's uh extraordinary this is rarefied air so to speak but what's really funny is

SPEAKER_02: here's the experience jason i just pulled it up uh just for folks who haven't seen this meme yet he was at groupon and his last job there ended in 2014 he was the senior director of smart deals

SPEAKER_24: relevance and personalization which jason i believe is about as far away from building supersonic

Chamath Palihapitiya: aircraft as possible or it's not and let me um give the the reason this is such an evocative uh resume is because groupon was considered trivial right okay i can go do a yoga class for 10 bucks and it's normally 30 you got a half price deal a two-thirds off deal it's trivial but andrew mason a

SPEAKER_00: great entrepreneur created that and he found just a little product market fit and then you had a marketplace so learning the dynamics of how a business grows how investors um are drawn to it how to grow it even if it's something as seemingly trivial trivial as a coupon as a yoga discounted yoga

Chamath Palihapitiya: class just being witness to the entrepreneurial process changes your brain and you saw this as an entrepreneur i saw it as an entrepreneur because when i started publications writers were like i don't know that's the business side i don't know anything about the business side you know and like literally we would put advertising on one floor writers on another the church and state firewall chinese wall whatever term you want to use you separate these things and then there were people like me publishers who could write a story but also knew how to sell the ads and then there was distribution and you know how to do distribution and get people to read it i knew all three of those skills but the people who worked in the other areas knew one of the three skills on that stool of publishing now you talk to an average journalist they are fully aware of how the business side works they understand distribution they understand how headlines work they understand how subscriptions work and so once you in your brain unlock oh there's nothing if i know one of the three legs of the

SPEAKER_00: stool there's no reason i can't understand the other two yeah then you're dangerous and so it's just

Chamath Palihapitiya: for young people listening for old people listening who are in a rut you can do it you can just do things and here we have the founder who's been uh on the program twice i believe and we'll have him on again to take his victory lap uh shortly and i know they were raising a ton of money and i know it was paul graham's biggest investment i think he said on twitter but uh yeah tell us the details of boom's

SPEAKER_36: supersonic flight outs nailing product market fit is every founder's top priority but once you've got

SPEAKER_39: your product dialed in you need to focus on selling it especially to big customers you know we call them lighthouse customers some people call them whales to land those deals your security compliance has to be rock solid certificates like sock 2 or iso 27001 are the keys to building trust and unlocking these opportunities but they take time and energy pulling you away from building and shipping a beautiful great product and that's where vanta comes in they're your partner vanta is the all-in-one compliant solution helping startups like yours and mine get audit ready and build a strong security foundation quickly and painlessly how do they do it well vanta automates the manual security tasks that slow you down helping you streamline your audit and the platform connects you with trusted vcsos to build your program auditors to get you through your audits quickly and a marketplace for essentials like pen testing so here's your call to action whether you're closing your first deal or gearing up for growth vanta makes compliance easy join over 8 000 companies including many y combinator tech stars and launch startups who trust vanta simplify compliance and get a thousand dollars off at vanta dot com slash twist that's v-a-n-t-a dot com slash t-w-i-s-t

SPEAKER_41: just before i do that i have to make a chicago comment so groupon was a big success in the chicago

SPEAKER_02: technology scene which is kind of where i came of age you know through university and so forth and people forget that andrew mason founded a company called the point before groupon and the idea behind the point was i think but like putting like a dome over the whole city of chicago because it was too cold so they wanted to it was something stupid and hilarious and we all thought he was kind of

SPEAKER_03: this goofy guy and then groupon went i mean people forget that guy and you know creative guys uh and

Chamath Palihapitiya: gals um they uh can sometimes see things other people can't see because they just come at it with a different vector absolutely i became very um we kind of connected because um we had a meeting one time and he wanted to run descript by me in the early days and he showed up at the office uh on a vespa and i said oh interesting i had a vespa in new york it's the greatest hack for a city he's like exactly and then we rattled off the reasons it's a great hack they get like a hundred miles to the gallon of gasoline uh and you can split traffic and then i explained my ultimate hack was when i was in manhattan you know if you couldn't make it down a street i would hop off the bike and i would walk

SPEAKER_00: it on the sidewalk and i'd have the engine running and i would just literally be walking on the sidewalk and in new york city nobody cares uh you know it's on a crowded street and you just walk it so i would go down the street the wrong way when i would go to michael's for breakfast we we had all these like

Chamath Palihapitiya: little hacks and that's just having your vision open having your peripheral vision open being open to possibilities anyway long story short the point was the predecessor to groupon and the point was a survey and they were using it to do like important service like hey should we put a dome over chicago superfluous ones or also hey should we should we you know uh lobby our government to do x y and z what they found out was people started lobbying businesses the employees started lobbying businesses for two for one lunches or a discount or a free you know pitcher of beer if they went down there and it

SPEAKER_02: worked ah and that's okay that's the connection between the two i'd forgotten that detail but to me having done four chicago winters i do think that a description does well he should go back to the dome over chicago because oh my god now jason you want to talk about boom so a couple of things first of all boom's big commercial aircraft is not here yet we are talking about their xb-1 uh demonstrator plane it's a cut down smaller version of it but big enough now to have a person in there flying the plane and it reached an altitude of 35 290 feet and then accelerated to mock 1.122 or about 750 miles an hour that is above the speed of sound and is an incredibly impressive achievement and we have pulled jason the clip of the moment right when the plane went supersonic so i'm going to play that for everybody pay attention if you're watching the video here of the mock counter which is essentially a speedometer at the lower part of the screen and you'll see it tip over the 1.0 mock uh point so

SPEAKER_50: let's watch this there we are xb-1 is supersonic faster than the speed of sound we've got confirmation from the control room that she is supersonic what a wonderful achievement it's coming back geppetto and the whole team know what a really historic moment this is fantastic clip jason so

SPEAKER_02: long in the in the making i think about 10 or 11 years since they started working on this company yeah to finally reach mach 1 i'm i'm excited and i also know that i now need to start allocating more money for travel for the future because i am not going to fly at 40 miles an hour in a freaking 737

SPEAKER_13: until i'm dead i'm so excited by this it's going to be great and you know the big innovation here is um they have figured out a way to decrease the sound uh the the sonic boom yes which is why the concord only flew over the atlantic um was because it couldn't fly over you know countries because it

Chamath Palihapitiya: would leave this sonic boom so they believe they're going to be able to have a much smaller footprint in terms of the the noise that would hit the earth in this case they said it didn't even reach the ground because under some circumstances you don't actually have the sonic boom hit um but i do think this

SPEAKER_13: is a great achievement for a startup and it just goes to prove that if you were in a seemingly uh trivial job like managing coupons at groupon or whatever it was whatever department that was you could go and create an airplane uh and you can just do things i think is the quote a lot of the accelerant uh people on twitter like to do that meme absolutely absolutely but uh like me yeah blake the

SPEAKER_02: ceo uh made a really funny comment he said i wanted to call it the boom heard around the world but it wasn't heard anywhere i love a ceo who can actually be witty and funny at the same time while announcing a thing um i worked for a company called mattermark as you mentioned back in the day and danielle moral the founder and ceo uh was an early boom investor and just to show how much my thinking has evolved over the years i recall her announcing that deal probably 10 years ago something like that

SPEAKER_69: and thinking to myself come on now what happened to her she was like a little bit of a force of nature

SPEAKER_70: in those days yeah what is she doing she eventually she went to git lab for a while and now she's i

SPEAKER_02: think just mostly doing angel investing as far as i can tell i'm sure that's wrong and danielle's going to text me and tell me what i've missed but um the point is she was really able to spot this early on i think just because uh of having a non-conservative perspective on the world i not politically conservative but just like small versus big you know let's not make small plans

SPEAKER_13: let's make big plans and united has pre-ordered these i think they put orders in i think that they are cash deposit orders like real ones um so i think it's a pretty real business it's in the twist 500 by the way i just confirmed with maddie producer maddie and so uh congratulations to them and blake come back on the pod soon and congratulations to all the angel investors in the team over there it's uh obviously a non-trivial thing to do and i too will be enjoying leaving uh los angeles or probably seattle because of the route um to go to japan and instead of nine hours uh you know maybe half that amount or two-thirds that amount to be able to get to japan faster would be a game changer

SPEAKER_03: for me uh hopefully i'll still be skiing at that time what else do we have on the docket for last

SPEAKER_24: thing though once we have boom and we can go super sonic over the u.s yeah you can go to san francisco for the day from from the east coast yeah and that's that's going to change my life

SPEAKER_61: i think you could yeah you could go to san francisco i think it would probably be three hours or something i don't know exactly little breakfast get on the boom get off the plane go

SPEAKER_43: have lunch with some friends get on back ah can't wait all right i'd say the other side note on this

Chamath Palihapitiya: was they had really crisp clear video of the from the um you saw there were two uh planes uh riding on either side of it and one of them was videotaping and one of them was just making sure

SPEAKER_13: that had visual inspections of the plane making sure there wasn't anything rattling etc so the um english accented guy you know you need to have a guy with an english accent when you do this kind of livecast now uh they were using starlink in a fighter plane apparently uh to the aviation version of it to get this like crystal clear you know hd video of it so shout out to the starlink team dude

SPEAKER_82: that's really working everywhere actually and it's interesting you say that i was in japan skiing and i

Chamath Palihapitiya: sent elon a picture from the lift i'm at this place rizutsu it's you know there's niseko uh you and i where i go cat skiing and then there's this other place rizutsu and that's like a family-owned resort and it's you know 45 minutes from niseko so it's not as crowded it's run by a unique family um and uh at every base of these lifts was a starlink i believe it for free and so it was like a game changer because i would be at the bottom i could download a podcast my email would come in then i'm on the back country skiing whatever when i would take the lift up i would have you know whatever

SPEAKER_02: that you know your emails or slack messages it's pretty cool i i expect that's going to be everywhere and that's why i think you know amazon's working so hard to get project uh kuiper up and running and why the eu is working on this but it really is amazing how much of a march starlink has stolen on the rest of the world as they try to catch up china's building one too but i mean if starlink's

SPEAKER_70: already in japan and ukraine and the u i mean it'll be good to have redundancy chip away at it's always good to have competition and redundancy for just in case one of them gets compromised and also for

Chamath Palihapitiya: pricing so what you'll see is there's going to be downward pricing pressure when you have five of these things so the idea of it being i think it started at about 25 and then it went to a hundred i'm not sure what it is now i have it here at the house at the ranch as a backup to my main

SPEAKER_13: uh connection and you know it works so well except the the lag time uh the latency for doing what we're

Chamath Palihapitiya: doing right now it can jitter sometimes if you know it's moving from one satellite to the other and just the density of satellites and the density of users so for video conferencing that's when you're going to know that this technology is really tight is when the video um you know hd video zoom calls are good enough for live feeds on cnbc or on apocalypse that will be the ultimate test

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Chamath Palihapitiya: only with northwest registered agent it passes it probably you know nine out of ten minutes

SPEAKER_13: perfectly maybe even 99 out of 100 i haven't tested it for this in a long time but it has to be much more than that obviously to be reliable for a two-hour podcast or something yeah i saw this story

SPEAKER_48: we didn't actually talk about it um earlier in the week but this is actually from very early january of

SPEAKER_02: this year it reads china beats starlink to high-res space ground laser transmission at 6g standard it's basically 100 gigabits now i don't bring this up to say that china is about to take over starlink and win i'm just trying to say that the technology to make faster transmission from ground to satellite and back down is increasing around the world so i think what you're describing is going to be technologically feasible and probably with us in a couple of years and that just again makes me so excited because once we have internet that's fast everywhere i could go live in the woods and you know

SPEAKER_61: there's uh an announcement i saw i don't know if it's on today's docket but there was an announcement

Chamath Palihapitiya: about apple and starlink working on direct to uh phones and i know that's always been in the works as a possibility like even i think those are even lower earth orbit satellites to be able to hit your phone so i think what we're going to have is a a multiple stack on phones and so what that will mean is you'll have 5g you'll have satellite um and then there might even be and there were a lot of ideas around mesh and cryptocurrency i forgot the name of the project but one of the most popular

SPEAKER_22: crypto projects was out of europe was it helio where helium was the one that did the base stations to create kind of their own mesh internet network so you could create a mesh network and if i used

Chamath Palihapitiya: yours i got tokens you used mine i got tokens all that kind of stuff so you could put any internet connection and what some cities started to do i know is israel and spain had it first was putting connections on buses so you imagine buses or trucks running around with the same ssid wi-fi network well what would that do if your phone automatically could like i think um the uh now that i have an android phone again with my pixel nine fold really great phone it really does a good job of automatically connecting to safe wi-fi networks there's a setting in it forgot the name of it um but you could imagine

SPEAKER_13: if google or starlink if you had an account like you do for um some of the other networks i think time water does it and um a bunch of other ones imagine every tesla had or some number of teslas or robo taxis all had a satellite dish on the hood or the trunk or whatever uh the roof and then they were putting out this starlink broadband everywhere the idea that you would not be able to get broadband

SPEAKER_99: for free anywhere or for a diminished amount would go away so it's going to be a really bright future

SPEAKER_02: pulling our vision very much from the future down to just today jason a couple of big financial things i think everyone should be aware of one the fed's going to announce an interest rate decision later today so if you're paying attention to the macroeconomic picture well today's gonna be a big one no one expects rates to change people think they're going to stay but everyone's gonna be watching to see commentary how concerned are they about inflation what's their view on the labor market and what might they say to let's be honest political pressure to try to change how the central bank works i think it's going to be pretty anodyne innocuous stuff i'm crossing my fingers that it's nothing too crazy but it's weird to be talking about politics in this area because usually it's kind of dry economic speak but it definitely is now part of the conversation because president trump said recently he wants rates to come down uh four and a half to five four point five percent to the

SPEAKER_00: expectation yeah i mean if we go down too fast and inflation comes back that's going to be a major

Chamath Palihapitiya: problem for this administration yes i saw some surveys come out um and trump is significantly more popular than the last time he was president his popularity compared to the last time he took office is significantly high he's still the second lowest in terms of popularity so while in our circles technology circles business circles we could be high-fiving about you know this progress and the

SPEAKER_13: team he's put together um he a lot of the policies are not popular right now and so and some are very popular and there's a really interesting um reuters ipso poll i think that came out that was very granular i posted it and this will be worth noting and i plan on talking about it tomorrow on all in as well which is you know how much goodwill is in the tank right um and if you find those surveys on my feed it would be interesting to pull them up because what's interesting about these polls is you know

Chamath Palihapitiya: the least popular not surprisingly is the january 6th like people beat up cops do you believe they should have been uh you know released it's actually overwhelmingly like i think it might have been 70 percent of people disagree with that decision when you see it get past 50 percent that means it's cross party lines right because it's you know roughly even um you know the elections uh are all within a couple of million votes

SPEAKER_13: so uh and then you look at the most popular things what's the most popular cutting government spending

Chamath Palihapitiya: cutting the size of the federal government uh reducing spending etc these are incredibly popular decisions so the consensus is starting to build as to what people are in agreement on and which ones

SPEAKER_13: are maybe outlier uh rogue things that the populace is not an agreement on inflation is one everybody agrees yeah if inflation goes up uh and you know already the prices of eggs which was always brought up as like you know a big signal i i think mcdonald's is the better one um because of the avian flu egg prices are soaring

SPEAKER_43: so that has nothing to do with trump it has to do with avian flu all right but as we learn with biden

SPEAKER_104: no one cares if it's your your predecessor spending or your spending that causes the inflation no nothing

SPEAKER_106: matters yeah it's just did i pay more for a dozen eggs right and so people are super sensitive to that

SPEAKER_02: but uh i did go ahead and pull up the poll jason um according to this reuters ipsos poll from yesterday the poll showed quote 45 of americans approve of trump's performance down from 47 and those who disapprove was slightly higher at 46 so he's negative one percent net but 45 popularity in the us given our

SPEAKER_103: polarization is uh not bad but an all-time high for him is i think the most graceful way to say it

SPEAKER_111: this is i think that's that's very reasonable i i will also just say presidents tend to come in

SPEAKER_02: with a victory good pr and then they do stuff and then people get mad at them also i think that on the goodwill point you raised something very interesting uh we've talked a lot about on the show frankly how trump has said many things to many people that they wanted to hear this is sometimes called big tent or you could say speaking out of both sides of your mouth uh i think people being a

SPEAKER_24: politician being a politician i think i think people expect a lot from president trump and i don't know how much time they're going to give him to deliver but if people expected that he was going to be able

SPEAKER_02: to not just maintain a lower level of inflation but lower prices for household items groceries mcdonald's

SPEAKER_74: whatever uh they might have a short fuse on that yeah pull up the chart i sent you there's two charts here i just sent that i tweeted the other day x.com jason and so ending requirements that government employees report gifts or investments 77 of people oppose this right like we want to know if the

SPEAKER_13: government employees are getting gifts or investments right 20 of people support ending the requirement that government employees report gifts and investments in other words people want to know if you're getting grift right yes um and then if you go to this you know the bottom of the other chart which is the second one i sent you downsizing the federal government 61 agree you know and again

Chamath Palihapitiya: this is with a polarized candidate who is you know really hated by the other side so that means something

SPEAKER_13: like 15 of democrats are uh or moderates etc have you know go to the other side of the aisle and actually support trump on this easing restrictions on fossil fuel drilling and production again um it's it is 50 50 but you know it is amongst the highest um agreement we have and then imposing a hiring freeze on federal government agencies and requiring federal employees to work from an office rather than remote

SPEAKER_37: all of these things are starting to line up these are the things that americans are supporting him to

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SPEAKER_02: we're going to go look at the government we're going to find i'm just making stuff up here 10 and we're going to we're going to cut the staff that are doing the least and we're going to save some money very popular i think the way that the administration has thus far gone around doing things with this kind of like hard and fast i've been reading a lot of people that are impacted by potential federal funding freezes for research and so forth and i i do think that that's chaos that happens outside of technology circles jason and i think it will chip away at certain goodwill that he may have had in

SPEAKER_03: certain areas that will not show up on twitter and so i think we should just pay attention to it's

SPEAKER_13: not absolutely worth noting you nailed it if you um do the shock and awe that they're doing flooding

Chamath Palihapitiya: the zone you know pick whatever descriptor you want cutting deeper than you need to and then adding back i agree with those strategies but it will uh have unintended consequences and i saw it up close and personal at twitter you know at one point you on said hey we're going to do these layoffs if we made a mistake and you really want to work here and what you're doing is mission critical please email us will rehire you they're doing not you can't do something that aggressive but i think this hey if you want to resign and get eight months free and you know there's i guess all kind of technicalities it seems like is coming out in order to execute that i do think that could be upwards of 20 percent

SPEAKER_02: of people take that deal and i agreed but it just everyone keep in mind that most of the federal government expense does not go to staffers and agencies that are going to get cut this is this is

Chamath Palihapitiya: window dressing for the big stuff um it's a start you know it's we have to set culture and so when you set culture that's what's happening here and when you say hey we're going to be in the office

SPEAKER_00: hey if you if you don't want to be here here's the off path um when coinbase did this this sets a certain culture and a tone which is like of seriousness hey we're going to go hard we're going to work hard for the american people and we're going to look at every single expenditure and you know um if they save a billion dollars a day if they save 365 uh billion dollars and i put

Chamath Palihapitiya: this in a tweet you know just if you're if you're a family of five this is going to resonate dramatically because three dollars a day a billion dollars a day is three dollars a day per american this is about 340 million americans we don't actually know the number suffice it to say it's three dollars if you save a billion dollars a day you're saving three dollars a day you're saving a thousand dollars per person family of five you know now you start saving five thousand a person if they get it to three billion you know now you're talking about saving thirty thousand dollars per family that could either go

SPEAKER_00: towards uh education paying down the debt any number of things that are important and so part of this like freezing all the spending is to look at it and then just go do do yes no yes no and then to

Chamath Palihapitiya: highlight it it's going to be very uncomfortable for people there's going to be a lot of mistakes but the bigger mistake is doing nothing 37 trillion dollars in debt is crazy so while you might not agree with all this strategy you know i don't know if you do or not i agree with the strategy because we are 37 trillion dollars in debt if we were 10 trillion dollars in debt and it was like you know a smaller percentage of gdp i'd be like all right yeah this probably is not

SPEAKER_13: necessary to do it in such a you know strong way but i am cautiously optimistic there you go

SPEAKER_02: well my my views aside you know putting aside what i think about all this for the moment i think you said something very interesting if we take that savings and we apply it to deficit reduction paying down the debt education and investment in our future smart things what i think we're actually going to do if based on what i've seen this is not me talking it's just what i can see from congress essentially is that we're going to do all this cutting to preserve the 2017 trump era tax cuts and that will not reduce our deficit and so to me i really i really hope that we get both sides of this if we're going to cut if we're going to say to the american people we're going to go through a painful reduction in government services and spending great let's not just reduce income at the federal level to a similar degree and therefore keep borrowing a trillion dollars a year that would be very disappointing to me but it's going to be tough to tell people taxes may not be as low as you want if we're going to tackle the debt but i just don't think it's fair to say to people look we're going to take away x y and z programs that you like but everyone who's already rich gets

SPEAKER_13: more tax cuts i think that's not fair take a look at the um the fred chart federal debt total public debt click the 10 year and what you'll see here is the steady climb uh and the doubling of our national debt from 2015 until 2024 right so in 10 years we doubled it uh and doubling it in 10 years is insane

David Friedberg: and deranged now of course you had this covet issue but this slope has to in some way get dampered it

SPEAKER_00: has to get you know it has to go flat basically and then once it goes flat you know maybe it could go down or just as a percentage of our gdp if we can if we can flatten it or at least reduce the curve

SPEAKER_13: then as a percentage of gdp it becomes more manageable and we're not paying some huge portion of our taxes to pay down the debt uh which is on a variable uh interest rate in uh most cases it

SPEAKER_48: seems yes we are no it's very it's very worrying yeah i just hope that the pain is equally spread around now um back to technology sorry but jason and i have a lot of things on our mind this is one of those like kinetic news cycles when every time i open up my phone i'm like whoa um well you have to

SPEAKER_13: relate these to the the big picture relates down to what's happening in tech uh so let's uh keep

SPEAKER_48: going through the docket all right so today um lots of earnings are coming out we're not going to

SPEAKER_02: go through all these one by one just in case people are curious tesla service now ibm adp and then the two companies that i think we should just touch on very briefly jason are uh microsoft and meta now why these two companies we care about them they are technology's biggest names they're worth trillions of dollars they have lots of businesses but i think people are going to be very curious to see what their ceos have to say to market questions about their capex plans because recall a week or two ago these two companies were saying microsoft's you know we're good for 80 billion this fiscal year uh we talked about zuck and his plans to build a data center the size of manhattan more or less uh but then in the deep seek era they now have to go in front of their investors wall street analysts and the public and defend their plans and so i think today's earnings from those two companies are going to be highly illustrative of what their plans are for the future will we see satya over microsoft say hey we're good for 80 billion this year but next year it's 50. that'll be interesting

SPEAKER_24: i don't think we're going to see that but these are going to be some firecracker earnings reports

SPEAKER_00: yeah and i'll be totally honest investing in capex is a great thing for these companies to do with

Chamath Palihapitiya: their cash hoards because even if they utilize but 50 of that capex over the next decade if there's some waste there but they find a new business self-driving you know their existing businesses become slightly more efficient whatever they discover through that capex whatever they learn over time new opportunities new products and services will emerge from that capex spend or they won't and they'll just degrade it so it's not like when they make these pronouncements hey we're going to spend 60 billion a year for five years 300 billion that they can't change we saw this with

SPEAKER_13: meta with their glasses and the whole metaverse boondoggle right like that whole you know side quest has now been forgotten he changed the name of the company four years ago said this is the future of

Chamath Palihapitiya: the entire company two years into it or making that announcement i think he said yeah uh psych it's a

SPEAKER_13: side project it's a side hustle it's not the core of the company the core of the company is going to be ai it does seem like the deep seat um scare the shock as now which i kind of anticipated would wane a little bit when we actually got reality anything coming out of china

SPEAKER_66: you're gonna have to like consider it like a theranos announcement you know like they they've cooked the

SPEAKER_146: books they steal you know uh ip there's all kinds of stuff going on that doesn't mean it's not real

SPEAKER_13: it could be real aspects to it but there could also be things underneath it like we've seen over and

SPEAKER_43: over again we're gonna get to deep seek and the theft in just a second but funny you bring up

SPEAKER_02: mixed reality and vr over at meta because i was blown away by a news item that i saw and this is at the very this is the bottom of the docket where i just put stuff that i find interesting um according to business insiders they got a a internal memo from meta and andrew bosworth their cto said that uh the reality labs team quote beat nearly all of last year's aggressive sales and user goals growing rl sales over 40 year over year quote we are seeing massive sales growth in wearables and the quest brand has never been stronger have they pulled it off because i had the same perspective that you did for so long which is that meta is spending two billion a quarter on you know vr

David Friedberg: it's a boondoggle get it together guys it's ar it's all ar it's those um you know ray-band uh

SPEAKER_43: glasses they created what are they called again the um i forget the name of them but they look like

SPEAKER_00: ray-bans and they had the little camera in them and so you know actually looking at what consumers want to do take pictures of their kids feed their social media like that is the killer um use case for glasses right now and playing video games is not the killer use case and those glasses are becoming obtainable i think they're 300 those ray-bans are providing an actual use case the other experimental

SPEAKER_13: stuff you know some people like to do the try oh my goodbye you know every christmas they buy a quest they play a couple of jurassic park games beat saber there i know what are they called again

SPEAKER_02: the ray-ban meadow wayfarers and they have a number of varieties here but i think they all go into the wayfarer brand i like the blue ones not gonna lie those are hot a little chunky just

SPEAKER_155: called ray-ban meta i guess is wayfarer a standard ray-ban i think that's the style of glass ah so

SPEAKER_13: that wayfarer is like the dylan-esque glasses with the uh stems and uh yeah so that's the wayfarer as a style but i was getting these for music uh from ray-ban they have a really cool one that just has a little speaker by your ear and i love them because i could be walking around listening to a podcast or on a

SPEAKER_03: hike and then i could hear people talking snapchat spectacles was a big deal when they had like the

SPEAKER_02: little uh vending machines parachuting down people people love to play stuff if it actually helps them but jason let's let's move on to the biggest news story today which is this deep seek controversy uh we've been talking about deep seek a lot everyone in the world is but recently there's been some criticism that they might have been stealing from the cookie jar as it were so i thought we'd hear from someone you know very well jason mr david sachs over here um and we have a clip from him talking to uh cable news all about what's going on so here is david on deep seek well it's it's

David Sacks: possible there's a there's a technique in ai called distillation which you're going to hear a lot about and it's when a one model learns from another model effectively but what happens is that the student model asks the parent model a lot of questions just like a human would learn but ais can do this asking millions of questions and they can essentially mimic the reasoning process that they learn from the parent model and they can kind of suck the knowledge out of the parent model and there's substantial evidence that what deep seek did here is they distilled the knowledge out of open ai's models and i don't think open ai is very happy about this and i think one of the things you're going to see over the next few months is our leading ag companies taking steps to try and prevent distillation and so we'll see if uh if if the leading ag companies can prevent distillation by third-party companies that would definitely slow down some of these copycat models so what do you think about that

SPEAKER_00: so open ai stole the new york times stole everybody's content and then had their content stolen now they're calling a foul i call bs like literally open ai stole everybody's content a whistleblower committed suicide apparently because of it because of the stress they were under or who knows you know i don't want to

SPEAKER_13: really it seems uncouth to me to make too many commentaries on a tragedy like that that's why i

Chamath Palihapitiya: haven't talked about it either well i mean listen i'll we have to talk about at a certain point there is a one percent chance or less than one percent chance that it's anything other than a suicide the parents um have been doing a tour on podcasts i got hit up three four different ways

SPEAKER_13: to have them here on this week in startups or have them on all in and i'll be totally honest you know after i listen to a portion of it i have incredible incredible sympathy for this these parents right nothing worse than this could possibly happen if i was a parent and god forbid something like that happened to me you know i would do everything i could to convince myself that my my son was murdered uh tragically and that they didn't take their own life because that is such a horrible thing to have to face right suicide is just i remember uh having a conversation with a friend over a friend who a mutual who had um committed suicide and it was just like our brains were broken for a very long time and maybe my brain is still broken to a certain extent uh over this uh tragedy uh that i experienced in my personal life and so it's less than a one percent chance but it is um an important note that this person was the whistleblower uh so we can't avoid the fact that this tragedy occurred and that he was in

SPEAKER_00: the new york times and that he's the key witness and that he might he might in fact be the fulcrum or the the linchpin of all of this in the new york times's case open ai stole content everybody who leaves open ai start well the leadership that leaves starts another company so it's not like they're just retiring rich they all leave say that they you know really appreciate their time yeah collect a bunch of money in secondary selling their shares to um to kushner over at thrive and then they go start a

Chamath Palihapitiya: competing company like if you put these things together and then you know the flipping from a

SPEAKER_00: non-profit to a for-profit there is definitely an ethical issue at open ai specifically with sam altman according to the people who worked for him and so if they're and the people who partnered with him so now is he being unfairly treated is it like a everybody's ganging up on him for some reason it doesn't feel that way if it was one or two people you could make that case but when it's

SPEAKER_01: like 10 or 20 people who are saying i have ethical problems and they fired him for ethics then brought him back and the whole thing is convoluted like this it's interesting how the perspective on that

SPEAKER_02: is flipped because when the board fired sam allman everyone in technology twitter was like this is ridiculous the non-nerds are kicking out the nerds sam altman's a genius who is this this person on the board has a phd in art and now we're like the board was right sam baldman sucks it's it's a vibe shift and i think it depends a little bit on who you're listening to but i do think that it has been enough there to point out that sam's probably a little tough to work for but let's give them the benefit of the doubt let's hear from them so here's open ai's statement on the possible theft of their reasoning we're getting the funny part we know prc-based companies and others are constantly trying to distill the models of leading us ai companies as the leading builder of ai we engage in countermeasures

SPEAKER_105: to protect our ip including the careful process for which furniture capabilities to include in really

SPEAKER_02: but they're like we protect our ip your ip is fair use our ip is sacrosanct and i said this with technology companies uh not just open ai but everybody when they're saying oh you know it's just fair use it's copyright i'm like okay cool i'm gonna tell you that your ip is fair use and not copyright

SPEAKER_03: protected when i use it and i want you to count until you send your lawyers this is the napster moment

SPEAKER_13: for open ai i believe um and we all know what happened to napster right it gave way to spotify uh which did it legally so my best advice to content providers disney's of the worlds book publishers magazine publishers anybody who has anything that's on the web you know uh is to meet with the council for the new york times and see if you can join their lawsuit in some way contribute to it not because i believe in ganging up on uh sam altman or have any personal vendetta against open ai it's because i have a belief that the opportunity to create these products and services is the opportunity for the ip holders not for a third party which is exactly what happened with napster we all want to have all the world's knowledge in a jukebox in the cloud we all want the video jukebox in the cloud the multiplex with every movie playing any second we want to go that's consumer desire so you can have that consumer desire you want to have spotify but you can also respect ip and both of those things have occurred you can go subscribe to 10 different services for but 10 to 20 bucks a month and for 150 bucks maybe have a jukebox in the cloud for 1800 a year which is a big number or for half that number whatever it is uh you could have unlimited unlimited video consumption which is a lot better than taking five people to the movies for 10 bucks each back in the day and then having to wait for that movie to you know hit a revival there or whatever so i hope that that opportunity gets captured and my publisher harper sent me a note for 2500 i can give microsoft the book angel for three years and i i didn't make a decision on it yet i haven't signed it

SPEAKER_00: but i'm i'm probably going to sign it just to show support for that concept that my book of

SPEAKER_02: money flowing from rights holders to technology companies so here's a fun question because we're talking about open ai in particular because of deep seek because of the possible distillation theft and so forth but this i think applies to every single major ai company mistral in france uh xai anthropic open ai etc if they all have the shared foundation of copyrighted information that they did not properly compensate people for does that represent a major risk to ai in the u.s because on one hand i am so on board with you jason i agree let's get paid for our stuff that they're using on the other hand i don't want to fall behind china in the great ai race and i don't think deep seek is going to have the same ip issues but if we don't respect the systems of our the rules of our systems as we try to

SPEAKER_03: protect them we end up with an empty box uh ask humans create systems for clearing these things out

SPEAKER_02: in bulk and ask humans for permission yeah that's that's kind of where i end up too um and i i do think though i've really i've read so much stuff in the last couple of days about this and i really do think that deep seek challenging the world with something that was at least putatively trained for less and has cheaper inference is just going to lead to a lot more ai demand and i just cannot get over the fact that i think this is so bullish for startups did you see perplexity has already baked

SPEAKER_15: r1 into their system and they're gonna keep scaling that up i mean sure why not yeah everyone

SPEAKER_13: is model agnostic just got a gift it's going to keep happening and you know competition back to capitalism and competition this is a rare act of capitalism occurring in china and like a free market moment they'll have their moments of free markets um and they're participating in the free market maybe breaking some rules okay you know wouldn't be the first time people broke rules as i just outlined sam altman's broken a couple of rules people break rules all the time they bend them they break them they reinterpret them uh but this is all good for uh humanity i do believe humans will find more work i do believe prices will compress and just like you can spend a hundred bucks a year or 150 bucks a year and have unlimited music consumption whereas previously you could buy 10 cds for that price and that was roughly and you can watch like and you can listen to the radio um you know the technology will uh be deflationary and provide more products and services at a lower

SPEAKER_02: price open ai is doing very well throughout all of this i think there's a lot of like it's we're so dead or we're so back people just go back and forth between optimism and pessimism i think people should level that up a little bit and keep in mind that while we had these conversations open ai is just doing business and making money so the information reported that uh quote revenue from open ai's most expensive tier of chat gpt which costs 200 bucks a month um is now generating as much revenue as their enterprise or business team subscriptions and that was at 25 million a month last september now i don't know jason let's say 25 growth since september of last year that puts it at about a 370 million dollar run rate which means that chat gpt pro is now an enormous company that could go public on its own right so while we talk about competitiveness and open source versus closed source ai and will deep seek take on you know blah blah blah open eyes is growing and they're just doing very well and i think that gets a little bit lost in the mix so if uh a thousand people are

SPEAKER_13: paying two hundred dollars a month that's two hundred thousand if ten thousand it's two million and if a hundred thousand it's twenty million so they have a hundred thousand subscribers

SPEAKER_193: already to the paid version correct uh the the most expensive paid version yeah two hundred dollar

SPEAKER_00: version a month so they got a hundred thousand people to sample it it's not an insignificant number

SPEAKER_13: um if they have a million they have a hundred million users a month i'm just rounding that number

SPEAKER_99: out that would be point one percent they have 300 million or 400 million or 500 million maybe 600

SPEAKER_13: million users i just want them to go public so the numbers are regular 600 million monthly active users because they have the free version so that's people just stumble across the website and try it one time but anyway let's put the number at 500 million that means a hundred thousand would be like one percent would be five million um so yeah it's a very tiny tiny percentage of their overall user base and so the question is how many of the 500 million become 20 a month people of the 20 a month people how many of those become 200 of the 200 how many become enterprise on the competition point though i

SPEAKER_02: really i love that deep seek kick some butt you know i i i really i feel like there was this commentary constantly well it's funny how ai is doing like five business cycles in like a year it's just so compressed there was the ai is interesting it has no use case there's the us is beating china and then there was china's beating the us then there was opening eyes worth a trillion dollars everyone's gonna buy nvidia then nvidia's dead china's gonna win and this is all like the last 12 months it's crazy fast but what's cool is everything's getting so much better it is getting cheaper and i just think for startups who are building using ai models they're getting more and more tailwinds from the progress being made and i it makes me so bullish on seed series a companies that are trying to use ai in their goods and services because they have such better tools than they had 18 months ago surely that's going to be an accelerant to their growth forget if open ai wins or it's anthropic or it's xai or whomever the startups who are not the hyperscale model companies are gonna

SPEAKER_13: feast yeah they're gonna just it's downward pressure on the cost of uh hosted ai apis that people are using and everybody every founder i've ever talked to every enterprise is making it hot swappable so at any point in time you can just point your you know just like you can change where you store your data from you know amazon to oracle cloud to microsoft or google's cloud or rackspace or whoever digital ocean because you can easily swap that and just point it to another direction with standards and open standards and writing clean code that's how people are setting up their ai so there'll be no loyalty um and then the question becomes you know with these rogue models with these copycat models do they have fidelity and people are going to pay for fidelity so if it's you know all things being equal and you've got i don't know ten thousand dollars a month in api hits and you can do it for a thousand or five thousand you're going to want the one you're not going to mind the difference between twelve thousand and a hundred thousand for a sas company let's say or any product or service you're going to be willing to pay for the one that has the best results just like you might be able to buy cheaper storage that's slower and has a higher error rate but why would you because if you lose somebody's photos you'd be quite pissed off to our question about the importance of photos for people so i think that's um the other counter argument to this okay great somebody did this cheap there are some fugazi stuff going on apparently but would you trust your business on it and the answer is no no

David Friedberg: no yeah exactly you'll play with it but you're going to want something with resiliency and

SPEAKER_02: less hallucinations yep uh all that's to say that it's a great time to build a company going back to jason's comments at the top of the show so go build something and then tell us all about it and if you kick maximum butt we'll put you on the twist 500 which is now north of 200 companies and growing by

SPEAKER_102: about 30 or 40 or 50 a week so just and we're founded our university big announcement i'm going to

SPEAKER_13: make shortly but i'll just preview it here found university has been virtual and i think i may have alluded to this but i decided i you know i'm trying to get back in office a bit so i've got a couple of team members here in austin we're looking for a space and we're going to do founded university either one cohort will be virtual one cohort will be in person or we'll do some sort of hybrid where you'll get to spend a couple of weeks in texas with me and the team you know doing intensive stuff and or maybe we'll invite the best of the founding university 250 companies and teams to come in person so it'll be like kind of a reward so i'm i'm figuring that out and i'm going to re reorganize our company around this new premise because gosh the number of people who can start companies now my observation is has gone 10x and then the cost of doing them is going to go down 10x so you start thinking about that 100x leverage that means that you know there are more people who will take the 25k check from me to start their company and then more people who will want to take the 125k check from tech stars launch accelerator y combinator or whatever uh company there is so while more of those experiments are going to fail because people will be trying different things and maybe not everybody's cut out for it i did a little back of the envelope math there's a concept called pull through um pull through means did your investment make to the next round of funding so for founding university you know getting that first 25k check at a million dollar valuation to incorporate and pay for your legal or whatever the next phase is typically going to an accelerator 125k and then after that would be a seed round of 500k and you sometimes people are doing so well they can skip those so they skip the 25k check go directly to an accelerator or take the 25k check skip the 125 and go directly to a seed round sometimes people skip a seed round and get a series a because the team's so great and the progress is awesome and the vision is great long story short if pull through was half that amount um but you did a larger uh surface area of deals um you have a chaotic organization that has to manage many many many more projects and entrepreneurs so you need to really figure that out right because it's a very bespoke industry and it's relationship based so you have to figure out how to scale relationships which is why i want to have you know a physical space where people the best people can come and do let's call it one to few you know me plus 20 founders in a room me plus eight founders my team plus ten founders that kind of thing that's the way to scale it is a little groups pods if you will but i think there's going to be a sea change in venture in early stage where a lot more projects are going to get funded and a lot thusly a lot more are going to go under and be failed experiments but then a lot more will make it through the filter the great pull through filter and so i'm super excited about what this is going to do for the startup landscape and i don't think many people understand it right now um so back to that go polar company which we seeded um with our accelerator check uh i believe they um it's a tiny vision but they too have big once they got the app done then they said oh here's the next card to turn over here's the next one so sometimes founders get emboldened by milestones along the way and then in their peripheral vision they see a bigger vision and they expand and they expand and they expand that is a viable way to go about this right uh as a as a pursuit some people just start with the biggest idea in the world um but other ones are like i'm going to rent

SPEAKER_22: you a couch and you're going to couch sir and then that becomes a 10 20 30 50 billion dollar business

SPEAKER_15: down the road uh i just want to i know we have to wrap up a little bit long on time but at the start

SPEAKER_02: of the show one thing i wanted to add when we were talking about founding the company building something is just how awesome it is to do that now because of things like atlas from stripe that will just set you up an incorporation like when we did this for our little company we just used modern tooling we're using stripe and mercury and substack and atlas and like it's it's not a long tail of yeah tools

SPEAKER_48: it goes together it's it's so what i'm trying to say is it's never been easier and technology makes it

SPEAKER_02: easier to build stuff on top of that corporate foundation so i'm hoping that we see a lot of cool little projects like bring back small weird tech you know i want some crazy stupid stuff like remember meerkat that was hot for like a month and it was like pre-periscope live streaming we all had fun

David Friedberg: with that we need more odd stuff yeah have fun you know make make weird stuff uh couch surfing you know

SPEAKER_13: uh surveys a petition survey to get free uh beer at your uh office party turns into groupon just script terms into a full video editing incredible tool all this stuff restream it turns into a tv studio in a box like all these things can start small and have like small beginnings and

SPEAKER_222: great oaks come from tiny acorns tiny acorns correct there you go all right we are back on friday

SPEAKER_02: friends don't forget we are live on youtube and all the social platforms you could possibly want the

SPEAKER_48: podcast is available in every podcast provider that you can name my name is alex he's jason we'll see you on friday bye bye