SPEAKER_00: welcome back to the all in podcast everybody i'm your host jason calacanis i'll put in a bunch of plugs for the projects i'm working on throughout the show to annoy my co-hosts and continue the grift but it is 2025 and we are doing our bestie awards it's going to be amazing today we've got so

SPEAKER_01: much to do today with us again for the second time a truly amazing bestie gavin baker from atreides

SPEAKER_03: capital am i correct is it atreides capital trades management oh atreides management

SPEAKER_04: okay and just call it house atreides oh nope let's not get him in trouble ip

SPEAKER_07: gavin welcome back to the program let us know um just briefly what does atreides do

SPEAKER_09: thanks for having me here jason chamath and dave atreides we're uh we're crossover firm we invest publicly and privately in consumer and tech and we go from series a to mega cap got it okay so

SPEAKER_12: you are a capital allocate your place bets on technology on the most important new companies in the world we'll get into that and this is our prediction show that we did our bestie awards how

SPEAKER_16: big is your firm gavin oh well you just met the guy freeberg you don't just ask him how big his

SPEAKER_18: firm is the audience wants to know is this guy a player like what's the deal you know roughly four

SPEAKER_11: billion dollars okay all right so that's about a half an inch bigger than chamath he's really very

SPEAKER_31: nice not that he's a size queen or anything we're going to do a really great prediction show today and

SPEAKER_00: we're going to do some super predictions this year each bestie gets to make a super prediction or two during the show and we're going to take those super predictions chamath and we're going to put them on polly market yes that's right if you don't know polly market there's a prediction market where people can place a wager a bet an investment in one or the other side and uh there's my image good it feels

SPEAKER_12: like it's blurry it's a little blurry that's the avalanche coming and so i guess is that the maga avalanche what is this avalanche is that people streaming across the border what's the metaphor here jump up is that the huge orgasm uh that you're about to lay down in 2025 rocking my friend no no this

SPEAKER_47: is a shout out to my friend ruben ostland who's the director of a bunch of really amazing movies including the one behind me force measure there you go all right we did an amazing partnership

SPEAKER_12: with polly market freeberg you want to detail the partnership in some way you i think you helped work

SPEAKER_17: on it well we obviously have talked to shane at polly market for some time and we set up a a deal

SPEAKER_52: with them where we could put our own markets up on the on the site so we're going to talk about a couple of our predictions this year and then polly market will post them up on on their site and people can can trade them obviously x us and we're really excited about it because it'll allow us to kind of track how we're doing and give us the opportunity on an ongoing basis to create markets so there'll be

SPEAKER_53: an all-in section on polymarket where you can kind of go in and see the all-in market it's gonna be really

SPEAKER_04: cool awesome fantastic and so we just got we're all wrapping up our ski trip here nick i understand there was some footage some found footage from the bestie skiing is that true oh here we go look at

SPEAKER_12: this here i come down the mountain gavin i want you to rate everybody's skiing here i come looking great there comes looking good and then here comes somebody i think the technical term joe lonsdale does for that third person is a beep beep okay here we go and look at this technique coming down look at chamap chamap you really advanced since last season look at him cutting those s turns gavin what do you

SPEAKER_47: think it's great listen to me i i made a very strategic decision to stop snowboarding so i could learn to ski with my kids it is so hard to learn how to do something in your 40s no i mean if you've

SPEAKER_49: never done it but i do appreciate what you and your brother did for me last season i learned a couple things so it's been yeah my throat there with the black bomber my third season it was great i am

SPEAKER_63: absolutely amazed at the progress you're making freeberg i'm amazed you made it onto the mountain

SPEAKER_67: you you were out there a number of days you're getting it done i needed new boots and i tore my mcl

SPEAKER_68: last season so i'm in it got really tweaked when i went out there but i'm good it was great i had a lot

SPEAKER_63: of fun i mean i think i skied four days yeah you skied four days okay i finished my 16th day yesterday but i took today off just to get prepared here yeah i got 16. i do the executive program gavin i go

SPEAKER_74: out for an hour and a half to three hours zip zip zip 10 runs and i'm done i only ski in the morning

SPEAKER_76: yeah that's the way same same same and end at 12 15 have lunch relax get a little work done you need

SPEAKER_12: a healthy healthy mix of operate ski and ski gavin how would you compare yourself to what you just

SPEAKER_04: witnessed in that video your skiing ability where would you rank yourself clearly it's me chamath freeberg in

SPEAKER_09: that ranking where would you live in the ranking uh well i would say i'd make two observations first like i'm in the bottom percentile in terms of natural athleticism but i do have many many thousands

SPEAKER_78: of hours skiing great okay and i would just leave i would just leave it at that yes okay well then we'll

SPEAKER_12: be going out with you next year new bestie all right we got to get to it we're going to start off with politics gentlemen we got to keep this moving because there's so many predictions we're going to do our 2025 prediction for biggest political winner now last year well yeah i think we got it kind of wrong

SPEAKER_00: friedberg you said independent third party in the us and we did see some of that with you know the breakout of robert kennedy maybe chamath you said independent centrists we didn't get there with that

SPEAKER_86: one and i said dark horse presidential candidates maybe i get a quarter point credit there with wait

SPEAKER_49: hold on what do you mean we didn't get there independent centrists won the election for maga

SPEAKER_88: independent centers won the election really that's what you believe yeah okay i didn't think that it

SPEAKER_89: was the independence but okay i think independent centrists swung the election for biden in 2020.

SPEAKER_47: and then i think they swung the election for trump in 2024. huh is that statistically correct you

SPEAKER_93: think freeberg do you about that independent centrists did the election or gavin what do you think

SPEAKER_09: i think it's right like i think a lot of there are a lot of people not just centrists but a lot of people who had been lifelong democratic voters who voted for trump so i do think trump won the centrists i mean

SPEAKER_89: trump trump won everything essentially yeah okay shabbat who's your prediction for the biggest political winner of 2025. my biggest political winner for 2025 are fiscal conservatives i think that we are going to

Chamath Palihapitiya: test a very important concept in 2025 and i hope it works which is that of austerity and the reason

SPEAKER_47: why austerity has to work is that the only thing left after austerity is to cut entitlements

SPEAKER_101: and i think that in doing this we're going to figure out how much waste fraud and abuse exists in the

SPEAKER_47: united states federal government i think that that's going to spill over to a lot of state elections

SPEAKER_101: and i think that the fiscal conservatives that have been clamoring for a more restrained approach to spending will have their day in 2025. okay fiscal conservatives from schmoth freeberg

SPEAKER_105: who's your prediction for the biggest political winner of 2025. i also took a class-based approach i chose young

SPEAKER_52: candidates so trump's cabinet picks have an average age of 40 to 45 years old compared to the biden cabinet where the average age is a little over 59 almost 60 years old and i do think that this marks

SPEAKER_107: the beginning of a new trend in the kind of age range of political candidates shifting younger so i think that this is something we should expect as candidates start to emerge for the midterms by the end of 2025 we'll start to see younger new names start to pop up that deliver resident messages and

SPEAKER_52: aren't part of kind of the old guard of you know the aging political class so i think that's a

SPEAKER_12: trend that's kind of underway now excellent young candidates so we've got fiscal conservatives young candidates gavin what do you got for the 2025 prediction for biggest political winner i would say trump and centrism for my choice for 2025's biggest political winner i went with something similar to you friedberg i said gen x and the elder millennials if you look at the notable gen x appointments you got elon with doge you got sacks obviously marco rubio my god it just goes down and then if you look at the elder millennials jd vance vivek tulsi just a lot of young people and this is going to be absolutely fantastic i think because they're going to start thinking not just about

SPEAKER_01: themselves as the bloomers are doing with social security taxes real estate all the different issues that they tend to pick for themselves they're going to start thinking about maybe their own kids and themselves so yeah it's obviously a sea change is underway so there you have it folks for our

SPEAKER_109: predictions for political winner let's go with political loser here prediction for political loser

SPEAKER_12: we'll start off with you gavin we'll do this a little uh round robin here we'll snake it around gavin what do you think who'll be the biggest political loser of 2025 i think putin i think

SPEAKER_09: putin is going to lose bigly um so if you are xi jinping you know xi jin russia is a client state of china at this point and if you're xi jinping what is happening is now a disaster for you because europe is starting to rearm and which is which will only accelerate this year that will allow america to take resources out of europe and put them in uh japan and south korea and all over the pacific and that makes it a lot harder for you to do what you most want to do which is reunify um china and taiwan or invade taiwan uh let's call it what it is and i just think xi is going to begin decoupling from putin if you're trump you want to show that you're independent that you're not um enthralled to putin in any way so i think trump is going to be a lot tougher on putin than people think and i think he's going to get a very very uh a deal that's very very bad for russia and ukraine and you know

SPEAKER_113: you've lost half a million people and for what for what exactly yeah and it's a thousand over a

SPEAKER_01: thousand days into this nobody from the west you know in in nato or america no no soldiers have lost their lives from our side we've just given them weapons and so it's a humiliating defeat so far

SPEAKER_04: for putin i agree with you freeberg your prediction for the biggest political loser of 2025 freeberg's

SPEAKER_52: prediction i'm going to predict the pro-war neocons who are going to go head to head with the jd vance and elons and others of the world and i think that they're going to lose and i think that there's going to be this kind of big crack in the establishment of this this neocon movement that's been a very pro-conflict around the world and we've heard it in the speeches and in the commentary from jd and others and i think this is going to be the year it's all going to kind of come to a head i think

SPEAKER_120: they're going to end up on the losing side can i haven't can i take the other side just just a little

SPEAKER_123: bit so yeah that's why you're here yeah yeah i think it's right in reality but i think you know

SPEAKER_113: trump said something very interesting about john bolton he said the guy was absolutely crazy but it was awesome having him in the room when you were negotiating deals right because people looked at this guy looking angry red in the face so excited to hit the nuclear button so excited to go to war and you ended up with much better deals right so i think you're going to see probably a lot more bellicosity from the trump administration than anyone expects and that's just to get a good deal for you know between russia and ukraine and then it's to get china to kind of decouple from russia so i think the um in reality i think you're right david but i think there will be a lot of rhetoric that is at odds with what you're saying before you end up being wrecked we already see it with canada with

SPEAKER_107: nato with taiwan there's a lot you know we're gonna do this or this the tariffs obviously there's just a lot of very aggressive posturing leading up to the negotiations that are hopefully going to get the

SPEAKER_37: u.s good deals we'll see shamath you have a prediction for your 2025 biggest political loser

SPEAKER_47: predictions hard to do the uh biggest political loser of 2025 is going to be progressivism so november of last year right after the election i flew to london and went up to oxford and i spoke at the oxford union and very impressed my speech was a full-throated defense of maga but it was mostly an

SPEAKER_101: explanation of manga and it was sort of the antidote to progressive instincts that had been riddling

Chamath Palihapitiya: the western g8 countries and was starting to basically come on young and when you look at what's about to happen in 2025 in canada justin trudeau is going to lose massively to peer poly of in germany

SPEAKER_101: afd looks like they will win in france if there's a deadlock and it goes into an election more than

SPEAKER_47: likely marine le pen is going to win and then in the uk where you see this unfolding child rape scandal where allegedly upwards of hundreds of thousands of young girls over the course of 20 plus years were

SPEAKER_58: being raped by organizations of pakistani muslim men who were then not prosecuted for fears of stoking islamophobia as it turns out by the current prime minister keir starmer and if all of that comes to

SPEAKER_47: pass in the uk i think you're going to see the labor government fall and i think you're going to see nigel farage win so what do all of these countries look like by the end of 25 it's very much a repudiation of this class-based identity politics and i think that has enormous ripple effects all throughout the

SPEAKER_101: world and so i think the biggest political loser for 2025 i think stands to be progressivism quote unquote

SPEAKER_131: what they what we labeled progressivism i i took something very similar i said the racist vocal minority of each one of these parties and there's a little bit of this on either side you have dei on

SPEAKER_132: one side and then you just have outright racism on the other side and it's probably five percent of maga and five percent of the left and just to recap last year's political predictions for 2024

SPEAKER_01: our predictions for political loser was i said netanyahu freeberg you said ukraine and chamath you said the coke family the gop nailed that one i nailed that one freeberg any thoughts on last year's

SPEAKER_61: or anything else on the republican side more than the coke family do you think

SPEAKER_136: i mean explain for the audience who maybe aren't as deep into it well i think essentially 2024 was

SPEAKER_47: the end of the republican party as we knew it and i think what stands in its place is what i would call the maga reflection of a coalition of people that will be housed under the label of republicanism which is to say that these folks aren't necessarily republicans these folks are believers of the maga philosophy they're just using the republican vessel in order to run their candidates and get elected and in that overturning of the status quo what you had was this one family who was at the center for the last few decades of political machinery that essentially decided candidates that it decided agenda that it decided policy and that was the coke family and they spent an enormous amount of money to get that which they stood up frankly that literally the day after citizens united happened in the supreme court and i think that in that lens those billions of dollars of investment have essentially gone to zero because i don't think it means much of anything anymore and if you look at the new class of donors who will decide quote-unquote republican policy it's going to be the the miriam adelson's of the world the elon musk's of the world and that's very different than

SPEAKER_138: how i think the cokes used to decide things do you think there's too much money in politics now gavin

SPEAKER_142: i think there's too much money in politics now um it's it's a good question you know i might feel

SPEAKER_147: very very differently if i didn't agree so profoundly with with the largest donor in this political cycle yeah i i would say the reality is is like the the the money as long as the money raised on each side

SPEAKER_113: is roughly equivalent i don't think it really matters that would that would be my take you just

SPEAKER_12: want some equivalents that's all all right let's do our 2025 predictions for biggest business winner freeberg why don't you start us off biggest business winner for 2025 what's your prediction

SPEAKER_126: so i feel like we're at a really interesting inflection point that is going to make 2025 the year

SPEAKER_52: of autonomous hardware or robotics if 2024 was the year of kind of compute build out and the rollout of ai systems in software i think 2025 will be the year of the robot you know there's a company we just placed an order today actually out of china called unitry gavin have you looked at this company yeah it's pretty wild actually it's an incredible business incredible product so their go2 robot

SPEAKER_107: is 1600 has an api here it is you can run a payload on it it's got lidar on it it's got kind of intelligence guidance systems on it this is the robot system that was used on some of those videos we looked at earlier this year where there were machine guns mounted to the back and it was basically a new kind of field soldier it's an autonomous field soldier but really you can use it in scientific applications we're looking at using them in our uh on our on our test farms where it can wander the farm and take images and report data back to us and it's such a low cost at like less than three thousand dollars you can do some incredible things with it so this business just raised a couple hundred million dollars last month for mostly chinese investors to chinese company and i think that there's going to be you know other similar type businesses you know kind of takes a long time for things to work and then all of a sudden they happen faster than you could have ever imagined i think this is going to be the year where we're all going to look at humanoid robots and

SPEAKER_72: autonomous systems and be like oh my god i can't believe this is here um so this could be the year

SPEAKER_01: what a good choice it's such a great strong choice for the biggest winner and uh i think the quote you're looking for is how did you go bankrupt slowly and then all at once that's how these technology changes and man i would love to have one of these for the ranch to just run around and

SPEAKER_15: do the perimeter security sorry nick pull up the you guys got to watch this if you haven't seen it

SPEAKER_107: nick find the video of the go2 with the wheels on it uh managing terrain oh yeah and everyone thought this was a bs video that it was like cgi wasn't real it was ai generated but like this thing is just incredible here it is this is a real video of this thing yeah and it could learn from

SPEAKER_01: an llm too right like a large language model could teach it how to do something yeah gavin is this real

SPEAKER_167: like what's absolutely real yeah yeah i want to get the g1 which is their humanoid robot yeah so

SPEAKER_168: pull up the humanoid it's really cool yeah it's a little more expensive yeah but yeah

SPEAKER_130: i mean sixteen thousand dollars was the cost of a used prius let's be honest that's in spitting

SPEAKER_107: distance of being affordable so here's the g1 look at this thing 16 grand and this thing you can you know you can basically command it to do things for you in your house hey or in your factory or in your

SPEAKER_04: workplace oh come on i knew you would do it oh come on i was gonna say maybe we could get a poker dealer maybe bow you know i wonder if this thing could deal cards do you guys remember do you guys

SPEAKER_176: remember that robot that was on stage for our all-in holiday yeah spectacular one x so my my brother

SPEAKER_171: made an observation he said as soon as that robot came out it's like everyone just wanted to abuse it he's like humans have this very interesting nature where like the robot emerges and all that humans want to do is like hurt the robot it's like a very strange revelation of human behavior yeah like it

SPEAKER_163: just it's like oh here's something i could dominate here's something i can tell it well that's because

SPEAKER_01: we're so threatened by it we want to make sure that we're the top of the species here and it doesn't feel like it's going to be for much longer i mean these things will kick our ass pretty soon

SPEAKER_180: oh anyway these things are amazing i think this is going to be the year of the robots that's my

SPEAKER_86: prediction year of the robots is your prediction i love it uh gavin what do you got profoundly

SPEAKER_09: agree i think you're the robots um inclusive of fsd you know i think fsd works today and it's gonna yeah it's it's gonna cross into mainstream adoption where i already notice particularly if i'm taking an uber late at night i really really prefer to have a tesla just sometimes you get an uber driver who's who's tired and i just feel a lot safer if they have the fsd running and then obviously using it for yourself is amazing but i think it's going to continue compounding at an accelerating rate i think the in a lot of ways what i'd say broadly is i think for a while it's going to be big businesses are winners big businesses that use ai thoughtfully and the reason is is that with what is happening what what o3 showed us openai's new model the combination of reasoning and test time compute like i think you're if you're a big business and you can pay a million dollars to let an ai think for six weeks about the most important question for your business that's going to be a profound advantage relative to small businesses that can't afford that and by the way we are the other like inference compute is going to be the the kind of derivative winner of that we're going to run out of gpus accelerators compute

SPEAKER_131: in 2025 the same way we did in 23. okay so you're also long nvidia and chip makers grok etc because

SPEAKER_04: we're finding new uses for all that compute absolutely okay very good chamath do you have

SPEAKER_46: a prediction for your biggest business winner of 2025 sir i think the biggest business winner of 2025 are

SPEAKER_47: going to be dollar denominated stable coins oh i'll make two points in 2024 two critical things happened

Chamath Palihapitiya: the first is that stable coins essentially became uncoupled from crypto volatility and it started to be

SPEAKER_47: used for wholesale useful functions in running businesses and there's an image here that starts to show that so independent of crypto volatility what you saw were stable coin usage just rising up into the right that's an incredibly important decoupling that happened in 2024 the second and this data is still just trickling in but it's an incredible stat stable coin usage at the end of the second quarter of 2024 was about 1.1 billion transactions that summed to 8.5 trillion dollars of transaction volume if you compare

SPEAKER_101: that to visa over the same period it was more than double visas transaction volume so

SPEAKER_47: i think what we have now is something that has fundamentally crossed a point of no return similar to how last year i thought that the big trend was going to be bitcoin in 2024 i would say that the big trend in 25 is stable coin usage i think we're going to finally attack the duopoly of visa and mastercard i think you're going to see an innumerable number of use cases that sit and use stable coin rails i think when donald trump becomes president i think you're going to see him go after incredibly high credit card transactions and costs you're already seeing cracks in consumer credit anyways because of these high aprs all of this stuff is

SPEAKER_101: going to come to a head in 2025 i think and i think stable coins could quadruple or quintuple by the end of 25. i think it's just going to be an enormous market great choice should they be regulated chamath we

SPEAKER_131: saw at some of these congressional hearings tether was kind of dragged for being the primary transfer

SPEAKER_132: and and monetary tool for terrorism for getting around sanctions and for human trafficking should

SPEAKER_47: it be regulated and how i don't think i'm qualified to say how it should but i think the point is that there are these immutable logs that sit in between and on either side of all of these transactions and

SPEAKER_101: so i think the knowledge is there and there are a whole bunch of third-party services that add that

SPEAKER_47: intelligence layer i think the the thing to really question is if you just took 300 basis points of drag yes out of the global economy massive how valuable would that be and i think it would be valuable just in the united states alone to the tune of a trillion dollars so the idea that you wouldn't do it at this point is somewhat quizzical to me so i just think that the economic justification for

SPEAKER_136: this now is just so profound gavin let me ask you a hard question there as well should the united

SPEAKER_132: states government give up the let's face it you know they they have a bit of a stranglehold they've got a bit of a monopoly on us dollars these things are a competitor and we were sitting here on this

SPEAKER_12: program for the last couple years talking about the bricks and them starting their own currency aren't these in some ways similar to that and they would take people off the usd standard how do you look at that because that is the criticism that some people in power have put forward i do i do think that

SPEAKER_09: they might be very good for the world but i do think they would be very bad for america if they replaced if some constellation of stable coins became the new reserve currency it is such a an advantage to be able to borrow in your own currency and to give that up lightly that just that means you control you you you control the real size of your debt at all times oh wow we have a big big debt i mean this is a little bit like what we just did let's just have let's just let inflation run hot and oh wow that

SPEAKER_147: that's a lot smaller than it was effectively so i think it would be a big mistake freeberg you have

SPEAKER_01: any thoughts on it we we've been talking about currency here and a whole bunch over the last couple years any thoughts on stable coins and and just the uh monopoly we have on it i don't know enough about stable coins well that'll be one of our big topics for the year and we should definitely invite jeremy

SPEAKER_101: allaire from usd on or usdc usdc jeremy allaire i mentioned by the way that i had this small little

SPEAKER_47: product that i exposed to the world which is just our research and we sit it on top of

SPEAKER_101: substack again the tools aren't very good and we use stripe and jeremy reached out to me and he's

SPEAKER_47: like i'll just rebuild all your payment rails on using us dollar stable coins and it's a no-brainer because i'm spending hundreds of thousands of dollars in transaction costs that now i can just save and use to hire somebody else or just pay the team more and so i just like paying 10 to

SPEAKER_131: sub stack and the three percent yeah if it's obvious for me it's obvious for everybody else

SPEAKER_132: all right my biggest business winner prediction for 2025 is tesla and google i think this is going to be the year of ai and robotics obviously but i am just absolutely amazed at the comeback that google has made with ai and i'm absolutely in awe of what elon did with colossus if those of you don't know jensen wong michael dell they all obviously participated in building out xai and they were shocked

SPEAKER_12: they couldn't believe that they stood up a hundred thousand gpus in under 45 days was it gavin something in that neighborhood it was a tremendous effort and uh but that's not tesla right is that

SPEAKER_206: tesla well elon tesla xai and google that cohort who are investing heavily in ai those two specifically

SPEAKER_01: those two three names i think are going to be the biggest winners next year they're going to come out

SPEAKER_12: with some things that people didn't anticipate i don't i don't think people are anticipating what google is going to come out with because gemini deep research i keep telling people this and i'm using the app is so impressive drop what you're doing right now pause the podcast download gemini and just start playing with deep research on your desktop pay the 20 bucks for it it is mind-blowing it blows anything else in the market out of the water period full stop it is a step function higher

SPEAKER_147: all right i'll just leave it at that jason shouldn't you uh just going with the vibe of the podcast should you explain what it is what you're sorry okay so what it does is good call

SPEAKER_132: good call yeah if you wanted to create a model let's say and i did this where i said hey make

SPEAKER_12: me a model based upon what it would take to replace all the cars and trips in the united states with full self-driving cars what would that cost to do and if you ask that to chat gpt or grok or you know claude it's going to give you a decent answer what deep research does is it goes and it figures out what the sub components of each of those questions would be and then it fires off multiple threads and then it searches the web in real time which google is extremely good at and then it summarizes it gives citations and it produces a report that looks like something that gartner group mckenzie boston consulting group would have spent i don't know 30 days on gavin and a million dollars a half million dollars it's bonkers how good this is but the amount of compute it takes is extraordinary that's why chat gpt released something similar that's 200 bucks a month the o1 pro i think they call it and then this one is like 20 bucks from gemini anyway given what google has access to youtube your g drive your google docs etc your gmail it's going to do things that you wouldn't anticipate like if you were asking this question it might look in your gmail for possibilities to answer those questions or youtube videos of channels you subscribe to so this is going to i think knock people's socks off and solve problems that people didn't know they had is that a pretty good explanation gavin yeah it's great for last year our predictions for business winner chamath said bootstrapped or indoor profitable startups i think that's a really great pick and that came to pass we're seeing some of

SPEAKER_132: those go public and raise money at higher evaluations or not go out of business freeberg you said commodities businesses i'm not sure how that did do you know uh did you check in on that pretty flat

SPEAKER_107: yeah we didn't have a lot of the inflationary pressures that i think were underlying that thesis so

SPEAKER_218: got it it ended up being i'd say a loser relative to other indices you could have bought this year

SPEAKER_131: i said training data owners like reddit new york times google etc reddit stock up to 24 in 2024

SPEAKER_01: and they launched their own reddit answers yeah i think i got that one uh new york times stock is up as well and they uh fired off that lawsuit with open ai all right now we're gonna move on to the

SPEAKER_12: 2025 biggest business loser predictions in 2024 chamath said pro sports teams because they hit peak valuations that's looking like a pretty good prediction freeberg you said vertical sas companies because of ai disruption that's another one that seems like a great prediction i said smartphone manufacturers apple stock was up 30 in 2024 but i think we've all seen that these uh smartphones

SPEAKER_132: aren't advancing and people are taking their times the sales of those are down services are up i would

SPEAKER_09: take the other side of pro sports teams it feels like that market is about to be institutionalized and funds are going to start buying pro sports teams okay that ultimately and ultimately capital markets have way more resources than kind of the wealthy individuals who've done it for net to date so i just think it's the amount of money that can go after pro sports teams is about uh

SPEAKER_101: you know 10x 100x no i think i think you're totally right the the reason i said that last year was it was

SPEAKER_58: pretty clear to me at the time and the nba was the canary in the coal mine that there was a viewership

SPEAKER_101: problem in professional sports and specifically in the nba the game has devolved into essentially rebounds and dunks or three-pointers and the issue with that is that it becomes just meaningfully less interesting to watch at the same time because of the the fact that the tv deals are really what determines the discounted value of these sports franchises the tv deal was so enormous that it creates no reliable rivalries anymore because people will hopscotch teams almost every year because the compensation that they can get is just so obscene quite honestly and i think what happens is sports

SPEAKER_47: will have a decent run until the next tv deals get done and i think if you for example take pharma ads outside of tv so like that pool shrinks if you have less viewership and so you can sell the remaining ads less effectively because there's just fewer of them and then there's fewer buyers and it shrinks yet again then the dollar pool that the television networks and the streamers are going to be willing to pay for sports will go down and the group that will be the most price sensitive are exactly who you

SPEAKER_101: said gavin meaning the non-trophy buyer so like you know when i bought into the warriors i bought it purely as a trophy asset and i was price insensitive but i agree with you that now that you have the pe firms on the cap tables of these sports franchises those folks are all dcf's those folks are all excel models i don't think that they're buying things for emotion i don't think they've grown up thinking i want to own this thing not using institutional lp dollars so i just think that's why that's why i said that in 24 so i just on behalf of phil humus and i we appreciate

SPEAKER_235: you made that vanity investment for the number of times we got to sit in your court side seats

SPEAKER_238: yeah because i never went to the games we made with nba players i never went to the games i should

SPEAKER_239: have gone to more games i went to your games and almost got thrown out of your seats i got a red card

SPEAKER_101: one time it's true is it true you did oh you don't know i got a call i got a call i think it was from the warriors or it's from the nba something to the effect of this guy that was sitting in your seats was

SPEAKER_47: almost kicked out and i said excuse me because i knew that it was the next game in fairness and and he was like jawboning our own players i was getting into it with bogut and with david lee

SPEAKER_245: because i told it was unbelievable i told steve kerr listen you're up 30 on my knicks

SPEAKER_12: sit these guys down this is bush league what if steph curry gets hurt out there like and uh you know bogut told me to shut up and andre iguodala bogut told them to basically go pound sand and he

SPEAKER_239: basically did it was the funniest thing ever david this is what happens when you get one of

SPEAKER_250: our friends and he's one of our good friends so that's why it's so funny but if they can't they

SPEAKER_12: come over freeberg and they tap on the shoulder i'm with my wife she's mortified and the guy hands you a card and the card says you've been uh warned one time and one time only about abusive you know uh behavior if we have to warn you one more time you will be escorted out so i look at the guy and i say but

SPEAKER_253: and he goes read the card i read the card i say he goes gives me a thumbs up that was it i never

SPEAKER_245: you're not supposed to then three years later i'm sitting in the same seats i'm interacting with draymond during the finals games and then everybody's hokey dokey with it when you say

SPEAKER_259: interacting what do you mean when you say interact wait hold on gavin wanted to make a point about

SPEAKER_113: what i just want to just just come back to chamath because i for sure these private equity guys

SPEAKER_09: are dcfs the nba has been terribly managed i think lebron said they have a big problem you know and i'd separate the nba is the worst managed nfl is probably the best managed but the one kind of counterpoint i would say on the tv rights is google bought sunday ticket and are extremely happy with it amazon and netflix also bought you know both bought nfl games and are really happy with them and so i just think those three companies it doesn't really matter to them if pharma

SPEAKER_113: ads go away in 18 months you're going to be able to dynamically create an ad for each individual person and show it to them and if you're a high value user with a you know that google knows that you're about to book a vacation you know they'll dynamically generate you know whatever you know hotel destinations you want and show click here so i just think sports as long as they command the

SPEAKER_09: eyeballs that they do and i for sure if the nba doesn't fix it the value of those franchises will start to decline but um just the fact that all of the biggest tech companies are so happy with the

SPEAKER_113: sports kind of rights that they bought they're going to buy them all and every sport i can't understand

SPEAKER_12: gavin maybe maybe you're closer to this but why wouldn't apple amazon or google just back up the truck to the nba and say we'll take the whole thing and then anybody who's got an iphone gets the nba for free and then everybody else has to pay and they figure it out in the back and they lose a you know five billion they make two billion who cares it's a rounding error for apple i agree and they you know

SPEAKER_09: i mean they all all except for apple really and apple they have i think an mls deal but they all kind

SPEAKER_113: of stuck their toe in the water and i think they feel like wow the water's warm let's dive in um okay

SPEAKER_12: yeah and the new deal is an 11 year deal for the nba so these things don't come up that often but we'll see over time maybe somebody will buy one of these media companies and inherit them okay biggest business loser for 2025 what's your prediction gavin big government service providers

SPEAKER_147: you do not you do not want to have the united states government at any level is over 35 of your

SPEAKER_00: revenue good choice yes obviously in the age of doge they might not be spending wildly and they might actually look at the bill they might check the bill crazy thought crazy thought yeah crazy

SPEAKER_92: thought to actually check the bill you never know chamath who do you predict will be the biggest business loser of 2025. well this is a little bit precarious but

SPEAKER_47: i don't know what the percentage drawdown from here will be but i think when we look back the absolute dollar drawdown of the mag seven will be in the trillions of dollars okay and the reason

SPEAKER_58: is not necessarily because of the underlying fundamentals of these companies but i am a little

SPEAKER_47: bit worried and i tweeted this a few days ago about just the general concentration of the top seven eight

SPEAKER_58: nine ten companies in the indices i think it's approaching 40 percent and i think that when you look at these historic concentrations they've generally foreshadowed a big drawdown and unfortunately i don't

SPEAKER_101: see how you can sort of you know inoculate yourself from that risk so independent of the quality of

SPEAKER_47: these companies because i think these companies are exceptional businesses i do think you've just had too much concentration and i think it it is a setup to retrade and give back and in that it could even

SPEAKER_101: be ten percent but ten percent in the mag eight will be a couple trillion bucks and so on a one or two

SPEAKER_275: percent would be a lot yeah an absolute dollars a lot okay freeberg who do you predict you predict

SPEAKER_63: max seven government service providers for you gavin freeberg who do you predict will be the biggest

SPEAKER_52: business loser of 20 i'm not i'm sort of on the same vein as gavin i went with the kind of old defense and aerospace providers boeing lockheed martin raytheon defense 1.0 driven by kind of china

SPEAKER_107: dominance driven by u.s defense budgets that i think are going to need to shift towards a more kind of tech oriented and roi driven rationalization and pricing and spend so the palanteers and andurals obviously the world will benefit and i also just think like there's a lot of failure at scale with

SPEAKER_281: these businesses they've gotten too clunky and too bureaucratic as we've seen with boeing from their space program uh failure in 2024 uh to the challenges with their their airplane business but i think that this government contracting business across the board is going to be deeply challenged this year

SPEAKER_04: with all the new blood so the cost plus are going to suffer is what you're saying and the andrels will

SPEAKER_138: thrive would you guys add just a question would you guys add the traditional consulting companies then to the mix as well like if that's a good that's a good point too that's a great one yeah we think

SPEAKER_101: what we talked about with deep like the white pros the tatas the hcl the accenture cognizance cognizance the emys all these folks that are in real trouble if that if that also happens

SPEAKER_286: the efficiency that they'll gain will also be felt by their customers and their customers might not

SPEAKER_288: hire them when you got a bunch of software entrepreneurs that are now advising and

SPEAKER_171: informing the federal government on how to run their their operations i'm pretty sure that some of these service providers are going to get washed out so it's a good idea the thing to keep in mind is like

SPEAKER_101: cost plus is a fancier way of saying time and materials and time and materials is a fancy way of saying human labor arbitrage and i think that all of that stuff will get extremely scrutinized in 2025 because if you are buying you know 800 waste baskets and you know 9 000 umbrella hangers because of time and materials and all of this other crazy stuff that's in the system and all of that gets

SPEAKER_47: washed out then a lot of these folks and their business models will get put under severe stress

SPEAKER_12: the alignments you know you show me an incentive i'll show you the outcome the alignment of cost

SPEAKER_130: plus is to just keep being inefficient and and waste and and these defense contractors are taking 60 70 80 percent off the price of each piece of munitions or vehicle yeah cost plus is terrible no just cost

SPEAKER_12: terms is terrible that's all right for my biggest business loser prediction i had to go through a lot of the uh people i've uh criticized i didn't start fights with over the past year commercial real estate came to mind because these leases are going to keep coming up and i think like they kicked the can down the road a little bit so i started there then i looked at micro strategies and that made no sense to me that they were trading at two three four times the book value of their bitcoin and i think that's not sustainable i looked at truth social which is like doing four or five million dollars in revenue and is valued at seven billion that makes absolute no logical sense but i think the one that is the most overpriced of of all this and i think is going to see their peak valuation is open ai

SPEAKER_132: i think the headwinds for open ai are being absolutely under appreciated like i said before in my

SPEAKER_12: previous one uh my previous prediction google is kicking ass xai is just getting started and building out so much big iron microsoft was basically on another podcast almost like laughing at open ai for selling them the source code and that they didn't even need open ai anymore because they had it all they don't need them and they own all the big iron i think open ai's valuation made no sense i don't think they're going to be able to keep charging the prices they're charging and i think aws apple google xai this cohort are going to really take that 157 billion valuation and make it the peak valuation the company and i do i do think that there is a non-zero chance they could lose their process and these court cases of transferring 157 billion dollars in value from a non-profit into a for-profit i think that whole

SPEAKER_298: thing could blow up is that your super prediction is open ai will not be able to convert from non-profit

SPEAKER_130: to for-profit in 2025 i think that that's a small piece of it but that's a really interesting super

SPEAKER_245: prediction insert polymarket graphic here super prediction will open ai convert is that in 2025 yeah

SPEAKER_107: by the way you know they're projecting i think in the the the leaked financials 12 billion in revenue next year jcal so unlike a lot of the other things you were talking about this is a real business with real revenue real scale real growth real technology it's it's a little bit distinct from kind of being

SPEAKER_63: a meme stock or being a exactly that's why i'm picking it because i think it's easy to pick a meme stock

SPEAKER_132: it's harder to pick a real company but i do think that that revenue which you know a lot of it is consumer and a lot of it is developers the developers i know all want to do open source they don't want to have to be beholden to open ai and sam altman they would much rather and they're already setting their queries across multiple different stacks and trying different ones i don't think there's any

SPEAKER_12: loyalty to open ai or gemini or any of these services i think they'll just go with eventually open source in many cases so anyway that's my thought on open ai 2025 biggest business deal what do you

SPEAKER_74: got shimath what's your biggest business deal for 2025 prediction shimath what do you got you said

SPEAKER_101: starlink to go public last year that hasn't happened yeah totally we've done that one i think that this is the year that we will see the collapse of the traditional auto oems and i think that the the deal that happened at the end of 2024 with honda nissan i think is a bit of a signal to what the industry has to do which is to go through a massive wave of consolidation i think that tesla is just in

SPEAKER_47: an incredible position with the quality of their vehicles and the quality of their software and the

SPEAKER_101: quality of their autonomy with fsd so i suspect that after a couple of more meaningful product releases it's just going to trigger the realization by the public capital markets that these auto oems are

SPEAKER_47: uninvestable and i think the result of that will be a wave of auto mega mergers and for people who

SPEAKER_132: don't know honda and nissan signed an agreement to merge and mitsubishi is involved because they're part of i think nissan's alliance this would obviously get rid of all of the redundancy but yeah i think this

SPEAKER_47: is going to touch like the european oems are in real trouble you know what does volkswagen do it's not clear what does stelantis do it's not clear these are all businesses that are effectively melting icebergs and so you know typically melting iceberg businesses when they get put under pressure from smart investors like gavin and and and is ill they're forced to merge it's just the cost of

SPEAKER_312: capital gavin you got a spread trade are you short these names um i i would rather not talk about

SPEAKER_225: specific positions i would just say i agree 100 with chamath i think all right there you go they're going to lose their chinese business because they don't make competitive products anymore if there's

SPEAKER_09: not massive protectionism and we're seeing signs of that they'll be caught between tesla and the chinese oems and i think the only way that this doesn't have chamath's the only risk to chamath's prediction is just government intervention because they're such big employers and you know often seen as national champions but absent really significant government support they're all in deep trouble okay well done

SPEAKER_04: freeberg last year you said there'd be some blockbuster deals for rights holders licensing data for ai training and reddit did in fact sign two of us so a great prediction from you for last year on biggest business deal what do you got this year see if you can go two for two was it just reddit i should

SPEAKER_107: probably look it up i'll just follow on my year of the robot theme i do think that there's going to be massive funding deals similar to what we saw this past year for compute build out i think we're going to see massive funding deals for hardware-based manufacturing build out in the united states and i think that those deals may take the form of kind of traditional equity from private markets or they may have some component that includes government support to to kind of motivate and drive and accelerate onshore manufacturing we're not going to go in the us to making stuff that is like last century i think we're going to need to move manufacturing to the next decade next century of of production i think that's going to mean making some of these autonomous and robotic type systems that are going to become really critical for us particularly with china doing this massive ramp up and build out for both drones and robots and autonomous vehicles so i think we're going to need to kind of onshore a lot of this and so that'll be a big amount of capital that's going to move and so you'll see a bunch of these big blockbuster deals for hardware build out in the us gavin what do you think

SPEAKER_322: should be the biggest business deal in 2025 i think the biggest business deal is that they're going to

SPEAKER_09: be deals i think there's good you're going to see a tidal wave of m a after four years of not being able to get anything done i think there's an enormous amount of pent-up demand so kind of point number one point number two something will happen with intel and that will be big and hopefully it's good for america and then i do think you will see a lot of these frontier ai labs that are independent be acquired you know i thought your points were well taken jason about you know everything that uh you know google is bringing to bear and x ai owns their own compute i mean you guys can choose whichever one of

SPEAKER_147: these three you like but the ultimate ai winner will be the one with the lowest cost of infrastructure

SPEAKER_09: costs the lowest cost of compute and definitionally you can't be the low-cost provider if you're renting your compute from someone else because of markups yeah because there's a markup if you're buying your

SPEAKER_147: compute from azure or aws or google you are at a disadvantage relative to their internal services over time

SPEAKER_131: so the full stack wins great prediction for me

SPEAKER_132: last year my prediction was that bite dance would go public or tick tock would get divested or some version of this we are but 18 days away from figuring out if the supreme court will do just that

SPEAKER_12: my prediction for this year i was looking at all the media companies gentlemen there were so many possibilities there warner brothers we talked about apple and disney you know a couple years ago but i think the age of autonomy is here and i think there is going to be some partnerships that will happen

SPEAKER_04: between amazon doordash uber tesla waymo and that cohort and i would not be surprised to see tesla could buy uber right now for but 10 of its market cap and waymo could spin out and partner with uber amazon

SPEAKER_12: could buy doordash fairly easily and with the wrath of con being over the wrath of lena con being over gavin it is possible that mega deals like these could go through and if a couple of mega deals go through like this whoever uh you know teams up here could win autonomy delivery food delivery and e-commerce

SPEAKER_132: this is a ginormous space and i think listen i don't i haven't spoken to uh obviously my friend about it but tesla buying doordash and uber or amazon buying doordash and uber could be the greatest

SPEAKER_131: service ever created if you wanted to build a super app the only thing i would add and i think

SPEAKER_09: dovetails with what you said and and um friedberg's kind of year of the robot is autonomous drones there's

SPEAKER_316: a company called zipline which my firm is an investor in fantastic yeah but autonomous drones they

SPEAKER_09: really are the best way to deliver almost anything to suburban america and then i think over time it will be sorted out so they could deliver in cities as well so i just think that that might be a little

SPEAKER_324: bit of a wild card for some of these delivery services well and amazon in i believe it's texas

SPEAKER_12: is actually doing these now they've got 60 000 skews is my understanding already being delivered and they just drop it in your backyard and it's there in 45 minutes we talked about this like two weeks

SPEAKER_107: ago i um you know meituan and china's got this and they they have food delivery happening with these drones by the way um just kind of dovetailing off of this i think the other big deal potential in 2025 just to be very specific is a deal with waymo you know waymo launched in sf in august 2023 in kind of an open market way uber and lyft were 66 and 34 market share at the time and in 15 months in november of 2024 waymo is now a 22 percent market share of rides in sf which is the same as lyft and uber is now down to 55. so waymo ate into both uber and lyft's market share by on the order of 12 points um in just 15 months and now they're launching in la in austin all over the country they're already in phoenix so i think you could see a massive and by the way you know they also just moved the hardware platform over to a new drop new device that's supposedly going to bring the capex significantly down for new launches so you'll see much improved roic metrics which means that there's a much kind of more efficient way to use capital to scale so the system works it is scaling they are opening up in new markets you could see something happen with waymo this year that could either be something like a massive financing an ipo or a merger or acquisition with one of the big ride-sharing companies i don't know if that makes as much strategic sense as i've thought about it a little bit but i do think you could see a big deal with waymo this company is if you guys have not been in a waymo i think we all talked about this but it's an incredible experience and everyone

SPEAKER_281: i know of every age group that has been for a ride in waymo comes out of it saying that is the future this is going to absolutely dominate how i'm going to get around clearly most people say it's slow

SPEAKER_04: right now and monotonous and they don't like it but you know because it does take weird routes but that'll be fixed over time obviously totally and uh just in case anybody thinks i'm talking my book here i have exposure to all these almost all these companies in a in a significant way because i believe in the entire space one and a half percent of rides in the us and globally it's less than one percent are done by ride sharing the tam is going to go to twenty percent in a very short period of time and it's going to be across the board there's going to be a lot of winners here and to my favorite uber obviously they have deals with eight people and it's a global market byd produces cars for half the price of any other car manufacturer and they have full self-driving and it's pretty darn good from what i understand so this is going to be a global competition and that means if you want to win that global competition something like uber and doordash waymo amazon byd you're going to see some

SPEAKER_132: interesting partnerships happen very quickly i believe because there's so much at stake all right any final thoughts on biggest business deals i think i maybe have a good one here consolidation in

SPEAKER_12: the transportation space okay moving on to 2025 most contrarian belief last year enterprise value of open ai goes down from chamath it roughly doubled but i just picked it as my prediction so i think we're sim we're simpatico on uh what we think long term freeberg you said increased probability of a nuclear weapon being used for the first time since world war ii thank the lord that that didn't happen again this is contrarian beliefs people are going out there i didn't

SPEAKER_107: predict it was going to happen i just said the probability went up it was it's a tough it's a

SPEAKER_130: tough thing to call well this is most contrarian belief i think it's fine dr doom strikes again it's

SPEAKER_04: all good i picked apple would become the player in ai and they did launch apple intelligence but it sucks i mean it sucks it's terrible i just bought the google pixel fold 9 and the gemini works perfectly it

SPEAKER_12: does everything that siri is supposed to do if you say please play this song if you say please download this app if you say add this to my calendar it does it and it does it in one fifth or tenth the amount

SPEAKER_11: of time that apple takes and apple gets it wrong every time it's a piece of garbage it's a disgrace

SPEAKER_353: disgrace apple apple intelligence is even worse than copilot which is saying something jason would

SPEAKER_356: you like to announce you bought the domain disgraziad.com i own it i'm not selling it

SPEAKER_358: right now it it redirects to jake paul gavin gavin do you have any idea what what word he's even saying

SPEAKER_74: when he says that disgraziad it's disgraziad is what people used to say in brooklyn for somebody who is

SPEAKER_280: disgraceful it is a italian american slang how do you spell it you don't even know you own the domain

SPEAKER_366: you don't even know d-i-s-g-r-a-z-i-a-d disgraziad yes and if you type in disgraziad it goes to jake paul

SPEAKER_174: i bought it when i was watching the tyson fight it was so disgraceful i was saying to my brother josh the black bomber this is just this and he just said disgrace the odd and i just said i wonder

SPEAKER_04: if that's available as a domain i'm redirecting disgrace the odd right now tim cook to apple

SPEAKER_368: intelligence the website do you guys think tyson through that fight that it was part of the deal

SPEAKER_324: thousand percent yes i would love i think somebody said saudi arabia was offering to host a remake

SPEAKER_09: uh or whatever uh redo a rematch a rematch of the fight where the winner would make 50 million and then

SPEAKER_04: we'll see what's what and the loser gets zero yeah the loser gets zero this is a good use

SPEAKER_356: of the kingdom's money the people want to know we will all fly out there and do an all-in episode

SPEAKER_47: from you guys see this did you see this thing where is it is it logan paul is fighting conor mcgregor in india and conor mcgregor is going to get 250 million dollars what yeah it's like oh is it

SPEAKER_101: boxing or is it mr stunt i i think it's boxing and it's meant to sort of like bring a bunch of tourists into india to show them the country but it's a quarter of a billion dollars to conor mcgregor

SPEAKER_245: how do we get in on this grift freeberg versus baker palihapitiya versus calacanis oh my gosh

SPEAKER_04: we need to get in our own celebrity boxing who would we do come on keep going i gotta drive home

SPEAKER_12: let's go come on it's too much fun this episode chamath what's your most contrarian belief prediction for 2025 we're going out on a limb here this is going out on a limb folks don't judge us the spicier to take the better here this is where you can go freestyle

SPEAKER_290: i think that you're going to see a banking crisis in one of the major mainline banks

SPEAKER_313: a banking crisis wow there's a it's a small chance it happens but that's a contrarian belief okay

SPEAKER_138: why why wax one well i think if i had to kind of build the the case for this it would be along the

SPEAKER_101: following lines if you added up the total indebtedness of pax america which is u.s government debt plus corporates plus mortgage debt and you actually sensitize it to rates that are around call it five percent what you quickly realize is on a dollar basis that because the amount of debt that we have has just massively exploded that five percent rates today

SPEAKER_47: on 70 odd trillion dollars is actually equivalent to ten percent rates 25 or 30 years ago because we only had a fraction of that debt on a dollar basis and so the pain that you feel at five or six percent can very quickly ripple through the economy the way that it did when rates 25 or 30 years ago were ten percent and so i think that when people look at rates they forget the actual total dollar impact

SPEAKER_101: because when somebody or collectively when we have to come up with three or four trillion dollars how do you do that and so i think that there is a non-trivial risk i think it's small this is why it's contrarian

SPEAKER_47: but i think it's a it's a risk where if you have a mark to market problem if you have a credit default problem amongst the corporates or amongst enough individual consumers what i think that happens more

SPEAKER_101: more than anything else is that it triggers a reserve issue and i think that the reserve issue in one of

SPEAKER_138: these mainline banks i have two that i think are more obvious than others but i don't want to name them okay fair enough i love this contrarian take this is great i think that there's a there's a small

SPEAKER_136: but reasonable chance that that happens i love it it's a great great contrarian take small chance but

SPEAKER_116: big impact gavin what do you got well first we should use jim and i deep research to um just ask

SPEAKER_09: it to look at the total you know pax americana dead outstanding apply the current market interest rate to it and then look at that you know interest expense relative to gdp and generate that chart over time that would be a cool chart that would be interesting i don't i don't i don't disagree with chamath you know any anything is possible and um you know there there could for sure be be a problem at a big bank i don't know that i would say it's likely but you know anything is possible my most contrary belief so i think that america over the next at some point over the next four years will print at least one year of greater than five percent gdp growth real gdp growth i think productivity is going to go vertical because of ai and deregulation and i think there could be a world where this is the late 90s and it doesn't sound like a big difference you know five or six percent versus two or three percent but it is a massive difference you know at five or six percent you know the economy is doubling you'll call it every 12 years roughly first 24 years at three percent i mean it's just it's a massive difference in terms of kind of the wealth of the country and individual americans as far as a specific prediction for 25 because i don't know when that will happen i think you will see the frontier labs stop releasing their leading edge models to prevent knowledge distillation and their ip effectively being stolen you know deep seek from china it was really impressive but it thinks it's gpt4

SPEAKER_113: you know yeah so i just think you will you'll see the labs keep their best models in house distill them

SPEAKER_01: and put small small models out over time ferber do you have a contrarian belief and i did put into gemini advance 1.5 pro with deep research the question which banks have the great biggest chance of being insolvent or having a financial collapse or crisis so it's doing its research right now it'll be

SPEAKER_394: done in about 10 minutes i think which gives you an idea of how much research it does it's nuts

SPEAKER_171: free break what do you got i think that the the party line is that socialism was defeated in this

SPEAKER_52: election cycle and that there was a resounding kind of vote from the american populace against

SPEAKER_281: socialism and i actually think my contrarian belief is that we'll see a rise a dramatic rise

SPEAKER_52: in socialist movements in 2025 in the united states okay i think that we are going to see as gavin pointed out an acceleration of progress we're going to see an unleashing of economic growth because of deregulation and ai but i do think that some markets we've also talked about the the the

SPEAKER_281: downfall of u.s auto manufacturing and some other industries there's going to be a real significant shift in 2025 some industries and some companies are going to be huge winners and some companies are going to be huge losers there's going to be some parts of the economy that are going to be big winners and some parts of the economy that are going to be big losers when you have this sort of a change this fast there are often large contingents of people that are left behind and when that happens i do think that the socialist policies and the socialist movements gain steam when peron came to power in

SPEAKER_107: argentina in the mid-1940s that country was experiencing eight percent gdp growth to gavin's point about accelerating growth growth does not mean that it benefits everyone equally and i think that some folks will see people go from being billionaires to 100 billionaires to the world's first trillionaire and it will also start to fuel this rise so i think that we will see an increase in the breadth and depth of socialist movements in the united states by the way particularly with doge cutting government funding to programs that benefit individuals employment being cut in in the federal

SPEAKER_281: government and through federal contractors there's just a lot of rapid change that's about to kind of

SPEAKER_123: really upset a lot of people i totally agree i think ai you know people are fond of saying that

SPEAKER_09: we're in a world of agi or asi money will be meaningless but for a short period of time money will matter more than it's ever mattered before because the amount of money you can spend on ai on test time compute is going to give you a massive advantage whether you're a company or an individual so i just think ai is going to really amplify inequality for some period of time yeah i hope i'm wrong like i hope

SPEAKER_123: you know ai leads to you know all sorts of you know opportunities being created for there's a lot

SPEAKER_163: there's just going to be a lot of employment and income disruption in 2025 and it's going to fuel

SPEAKER_107: socialist movements and i think that this is going to be a more difficult year everyone thinks it's kind of rosy red because we're all working in the tech industry in silicon valley but the reality on the

SPEAKER_281: ground for most americans could be a lot harsher than any of us anticipate and that could make for a very difficult political environment and social environment this is a great contrarian prediction

SPEAKER_132: freeberg i would build on it that i don't think this is just going to hit blue collar i'm seeing in the venture industry and in entrepreneurs all over the place people who are super qualified who had six figure salaries even to mid six figure salaries not be able to find work or not find work at

SPEAKER_12: previous compensation levels why because people are doing more with less it's much better to invest and do deep research and ai and automate stuff or deprecate stuff or delegate stuff to other regions than to hire americans in some cases and that philosophy that's happening isn't just going to hit

SPEAKER_404: truck drivers it's going to hit developers potentially designers writers what you guys are saying

SPEAKER_408: what's the contrarian part socialism socialism socialism is on the rise i think it's pretty

SPEAKER_171: interesting because i think you don't think it's contrary you think it's obvious i think the party

SPEAKER_107: line has been that socialism was getting knocked back this year with this election cycle and it was

SPEAKER_281: a mandate against socialism and some of the socialist policies that were being put forth and i think that the contrarian view is that we're actually got this really wrong and socialism is going to be on

SPEAKER_147: a big rise but just to build on what you said earlier like wokeism and progressivism will decouple from socialism i think wokeism and progressivism you know will be on a declining trend but socialism in

SPEAKER_316: terms of the government like policies yeah yeah that's an interesting universal why don't we have

SPEAKER_162: universal health care why don't we have pre-k or you know in every state and you know these kind of

SPEAKER_04: things i think americans are right to ask those questions now other behaviors are obviously abhorrent but you do have the right to ask why we can't figure this out and why our government has failed us in something as basic as you know providing after school programs or universal health care or universal child care these things are easy to do and when you see everybody getting rich and the polarization

SPEAKER_50: of wealth i can understand people saying why don't we have these basic things when other countries have

SPEAKER_171: them it's a reasonable but you're making the assumptive statement that these things are easy to do which was what was said about education it's like let's give everyone access to college education

SPEAKER_107: with the the federal student loan programs and what happened was when we introduced those programs those schools started to charge more and the tuition went up every year and eventually the cost of education inflated away from the benefit you were getting from it and this has happened universally in health care it has happened in housing it has happened in education it has happened in every market where the united states where the government has stepped in to provide capital

SPEAKER_415: to support that market is that the market basically no longer operates in a free way

SPEAKER_131: i appreciate the challenge to it and i'll explain to you why i believe it's easy if you just put this down to the states and you make it more competitive i think you solve the problem if you introduce

SPEAKER_132: school vouchers and you create competition if you take universal health care and maybe you run some experiments where different states get that money from the federal government and let them run 50 different experiments i think we could actually solve some of these problems but you're correct anything that the federal government does it eventually becomes corrupt and inefficient my most contrarian belief was open ai loses its lead loses its non-profit two for-profit transition and

SPEAKER_01: becomes the number four player in ai the total collapse of open ai is my most contrarian prediction for

SPEAKER_418: 20 that's a good one the total collapse double double and doubling and tripling down hey man i'm trying

SPEAKER_419: to make this spicy it's a spicy category let's do it yeah i got it yeah i got it i got it i love still run for president jacal maybe he's great i don't know everybody who all his friends left the company maybe he's great maybe he's a stand-up guy i mean everybody quit but maybe he's

SPEAKER_423: gavin are you are you familiar with jacal's prediction that jeff bezos is going to run for president it

SPEAKER_00: was that was well i was predicting i wanted him to i wanted to and he bought washington post and

SPEAKER_12: he quit the amazon job and he bought a house in washington dc and he went down to mar-a-lago don't be surprised if bezos after he gets through his uh midlife crisis and going to coachella and partying and having a great time which he deserves if he comes back and says you know what i want to serve my country i still think he's going to sell the washington post or do you think he's going to hold

SPEAKER_215: on to it well let's stick with that one because that's one of my predictions jeff bezos will sell

SPEAKER_16: the washington post in 2025 that's a good poly market yeah sell it to cara swisher and sell it to

SPEAKER_12: karen swisher yeah they'll run it right into the ground they'll double down uh okay best performing asset everybody loves this one best performing asset hey we can we you can put a price on this best performing asset last year chamot did a spread trade he was long public tech stocks short private late stage tech stock index nasdaq top 100 tech stock etf was up 10 in 2024 freeberg you went with your

SPEAKER_04: uranium etf not uranus uranium etf and your a ura was down one percent in 2024 i know sideways you know

SPEAKER_107: what i i looked at the components of that etf last week when we were preparing for this it has

SPEAKER_52: absolute junk in it like it it was not the right the right way to kind of trade uranium but

SPEAKER_01: anyway that was my my outcome for the year i went with the on-demand economy with uber airbnb and doordash uber was up 30 but now it's only up three percent with the robo taxi headwind airbnb is basically flat uh and doordash up big 74 shout out to stanley tang great job to the team over there

SPEAKER_132: so chamath get your flowers there let's do our best performing asset let's let uh our guests go first gavin what would be the best performing asset of 2025 i think the companies that make high bandwidth

SPEAKER_435: memory going back to we're gonna we're gonna run out of compute it's it's um it's actually a pretty

SPEAKER_09: shocking stat high bandwidth memory is a bigger part of nvidia's cogs on gpus than taiwan simi is and today there's two companies that can make it hynix and micron we'll see if samsung gets their act together but hbm memory it's an nvidia gpus amd gpus amazon teraniums and particularly in a world of test time compute and inference being so important have been with memory is arguably more important than it ever was and it's been um it's been sold out for the last two years so high

SPEAKER_439: bid with memory would be my pick okay good pick great pick in fact what do you got chamath so let

SPEAKER_101: me preface this by saying that this is a pick that 92 times out of 100 goes to absolute zero okay and six out of the remaining eight times you make 10x your money and then the final two times you make

SPEAKER_138: anywhere between a hundred to a thousand extra money okay sounds like okay so this is a loser trade

SPEAKER_101: okay but i would be long cds so what am i buying i am buying insurance i'm buying insurance using credit default swaps i'm buying what's called protection that there is no default event in 2025

SPEAKER_47: again i'm not going to tell you which companies or what maturities but just the general idea for me is i would like a little bit of an insurance policy in 2025 so that the men and the women that we have voted in have the chance to do their work in peace i think that there is a small chance of some volatility next year i hope it doesn't happen i hope that this trade like i said 92 times out of 100 loses money i hope it loses money but if it hits it will be the best performing asset of 2025. it will be the

SPEAKER_101: equivalent of akman buying cds right at the right at the beginning of the covet crisis how does one buy those you have to have an isda you talk to the big investment banks and they'll price it out for you but again i just and i just want to be clear this is not something i think will happen it's not something

SPEAKER_58: i want to happen but i do think that if you look back in terms of just the tonnage of dollars you can make and the massive risk asymmetry that it presents to you when you look at the concentration of the s p when you look at just the total gross amount of debt that we have when you look at rate spiking all of these things say having a little insurance may not be a bad thing so i hope

SPEAKER_192: gavin you're nodding you want to know i was just i was just thinking i mean if you're if you know chamath's prediction of a bank failure is true you absolutely want to own cds yeah i mean you'll you

SPEAKER_09: forget a hundred x you'll a thousand x ten thousand x what do you got freeberg so i went with

SPEAKER_52: chinese tech stocks chinese tech etfs wow i think that the market everyone's kind of dumped chinese

SPEAKER_107: tech stocks over the last couple of years everyone's taken this isolationary stance on positioning portfolios and saying hey we can't do business with china it's over but i do think that the trump administration particularly with their recent request on tick tock being the ban on tick tock being kind of halted they're trying to line up what i would call kind of like the great deal with china so i don't know anything about what they're actually trying to do but i think that trump and leadership in the u.s government want to kind of open up the chinese market to american companies in order to give chinese companies access to the american market and i think that they're going to get a deal done given the position with china i think that they're very likely to kind of get a deal done that's one driver i think there's three drivers the second driver is that obviously the cost of build-out of electricity production in china is unfathomable they recently approved 137 billion dollar hydroelectric dam facility which is going to add another i think couple hundred gigawatts of electricity production in that country not to mention all the nuclear build-out we've talked about in the past so the cost per kilowatt hour is already lower the amount of electricity available is going up and then i think that the chinese communist party have this incredible ability to throttle up and down free markets and entrepreneurship and this is a moment where you could kind of see them making the throttle go the way towards enabling more innovation more free market activity and it's going to be one of the motivators for them to do a deal so when you put all of this together i do think that there's a lot of chinese tech companies that have been beat up under the assumption that this is going to be a very difficult conflict with the u.s in the years ahead and i think that that may not be the case going into 25 and i think that there these stocks look pretty cheap i was just looking at alibaba and it created a pretty decent multiple it seems like these stocks could be poised for a pretty good run in 25 if the macro works out it feels like

SPEAKER_454: a contrarian take i mean trump i don't think is going to find uh a way to balance the relationship

SPEAKER_12: with china very well and i don't think you can rattle up entrepreneurship after you cut everybody's knees out the last time plus i don't trust any accounting statement coming out of china because they could fudge whatever they want but wow what a great uh potential you know buy low sell high

SPEAKER_455: the good thing you'll know if i'm right or you'll know if i'm right or wrong in a year you can

SPEAKER_424: exactly well no exactly that's right pull the etf absolutely yeah gavin what do you think of this

SPEAKER_09: hot take here from from mr freyberg really cheap i've had a i would call it a no china guideline ever since the long top financial fraud more than 15 years ago or it's just amazing it was you know uh a lot of great investors owned it and you know they they talked a great game and they had a western auditor but then it turned out that the fraud was happening at the local post office where they were opening up the documents that the local auditors had signed off on changing them and then sending different documents you know you know whatever fedexing them yeah so i just think it's it's a hard place if you're i think if you're not chinese to make money but i tend to agree with a lot of what david said i think trump and she both want to deal i think there's a deal to be done that leaves putin out in the cold as i referenced and if that happens katie bar the door i mean they're really really high quality companies you know that are some of them are mid single digit multiples and

SPEAKER_462: they're and it's a big market so if you did get it right and you did by the way the chinese the

SPEAKER_107: chinese companies serve a global market it's not just the us they serve uh you know africa south america australia i mean the whole southern hemisphere well yeah if you look at byd

SPEAKER_394: that it's all over europe it's yeah yeah it's it's yeah no look i mean i i mean the chinese

SPEAKER_107: companies and they have the best unit economics they have the best cost of production i mean everything is advantaged particularly if you believe it's the year of the robot there's going to be a kind of a massive demand around the world for automation and for rebuilding manufacturing capacity all over the world and i think that china could service those markets more efficiently than any other kind of country of origin so it's a pretty pretty powerful set of macro drivers as well i think the mac 7 is

SPEAKER_132: going to be the best performing asset i'm taking the other side uh chamath i think in an earlier prediction said maybe not so much i think that what they've learned in the last couple years is that there is an incredible earnings expansion you can do by not hiring people and outsourcing jobs to

SPEAKER_12: other parts of the world and automating and the gains we'll see from ai which they're producing for other companies and for consumers they're applying first internally so the internal application of ai will allow these companies to have earnings growth that people will not be able to comprehend over the next couple of years so i'm going with mac 7. we got a lot of different takes here going different directions what a great episode so far all right worst performing asset last year chamath said late stage tech stock index mostly sass freeberg you put into brilliant spread trade short vertical sass long ai cloud providers sass has come had a little bit of a rebound but google up 36 for ai cloud microsoft 14 amazon 46 all in 2024 i said llm startups like open ai anthropic too many players open sourcing will kill pricing obviously the one valuation we can track is open ai and it doubled but i do think long term

SPEAKER_468: have that one work worst performing asset of 2025 gavin enterprise application software okay this is

SPEAKER_09: basically just about like a 2025 is going to be i think the year of agents particularly in the second half agents just being ai models that can take action on your behalf they can do anything online that a human can do online and if the labs and the big cloud providers dominate agents which seems likely going back to you know the the low-cost producer is going to win enterprise application software i think is going to be in a lot of pain and you know some of these companies are talking a big big game about agents but at the end of the day they don't have their own models they don't own their own compute and i just don't see them being ultimate winners in the world of agents you know i could easily i could be wrong because they do you know they they they have some customer data maybe a little bit of a data moat and they do you know have strong customer relationships but you know most companies have

SPEAKER_435: relationships with aws google or microsoft as well so i think enterprise application software will be in pain

SPEAKER_360: okay and chamath what do you got i think gavin just absolutely nailed it i'm going to double down

SPEAKER_47: on what he said i think that there's a term that that we will start to use more i started to use it internally at 80 90 over this last year in 2024 which is the software industrial complex these are these large bloated in many cases enterprise software companies that effectively have convinced incredible numbers of organizations to spend a tremendous amount of money essentially wrapping a bunch of heuristics and business rules around a crud database and along with that what they have perfected really is a go to market and sales motion the golf trips the steak dinners you know we mentioned this before what alex carp railed against none of those things equate to product value and increasingly in the world of agentic software and ai i think that you can rebuild a lot of these workflows in very efficient ways and i think the go to market is going to be driven by ceos and cfos who start to exert a little bit more pressure on their cios to manage spend and in that world i just think that these next generation ai businesses are built frankly an order of magnitude cheaper than the

SPEAKER_58: companies that they compete against and so even if it's just feature for feature the same i think

SPEAKER_47: the software industrial complex these old mainline traditional enterprise software companies i think

SPEAKER_101: you're going to start to see fissures in those businesses in 2025 so i i agree with gavin different

SPEAKER_131: words but same result and you put your time and money where your mouth is on this one 11 months ago

SPEAKER_47: you found it 80 90 to get 80 the traction in in less than a year to me is shocking and i don't think it speaks necessarily i think i think we're decent we're very good we have great engineers but my 30

SPEAKER_58: person engineering team i think does the work of 300 people by next year it'll be doing the work of 3000 people maybe we'll only grow by 10 or 20 percent so and the reason is we use these tools we're productive to an order of magnitude that i didn't think was possible and as a result we're just able to price it differently so even if it's the exact same product its cost structure is just

SPEAKER_47: meaningfully lowered and so this is what i mean where the roi calculators get blown up all of the traditional go-to-market motions get blown up because in an rfp or in any other sales environment what you do is somebody says it's a hundred dollars and you show up and you say 10 okay and at 10 it's

SPEAKER_316: still hugely profitable for you and and just to add just one last thing is just you know fundamentally these enterprise application software companies the software industrial complex and i agree with

SPEAKER_09: everything jama said you know they're they're fundamentally based on making white collar human employees more efficient and what the ai companies are going to do is just say hey we're just going to replace that worker and it's just a fundamentally different mentality yeah and it goes to like there may may be a lot of pain that accompanies this and you know david's points around the you know potential rise of of socialism what do you got for worst performing asset mr freeburn

SPEAKER_107: 2020 i'm probably just going to triple underline vertical sass again percy pricing model being

SPEAKER_52: challenged pricing being compressed as companies explore in-house tools built with ai that replaces

SPEAKER_351: these kind of traditional business practices moats are going to be destroyed yeah geez this is

SPEAKER_74: yeah it was an obvious one on my list but i want to make a different one i want to make a different one how about open ai do you have anything open ai no no no open eyes tell me why all the talented people left but you know i don't know where they are where do all the where are they all the other open ai employees are they on vacation they're skiing too right they've all started competitors

SPEAKER_12: oh right that's what happened correct yeah they all left to compete and have revenge startups wow

SPEAKER_131: that's an interesting trend okay so consumers make five big decisions in their life as we all know

SPEAKER_496: there's 12 billion in revenue i mean well that's that's a projection uh but also

SPEAKER_497: six billion in losses too david against that 12 billion in revenue yeah six billion this year

SPEAKER_225: six billion next year i think the six is for next year but i yeah i don't know i guess it makes

SPEAKER_131: sense why they're trying to charge 200 bucks a month now up from 20. they got some headwinds okay listen consumers make five big decisions in their life we know college spouse kids are uh the uh obvious

SPEAKER_12: ones and then cars and homes and the consumer is up against it with record debt so since you can't

SPEAKER_01: trade college spouse kids really i think legacy car companies and real estate are going to face continued headwinds and be terrible assets because listen we've overbuilt in some cases there's tons of cars on lots and people can't afford homes with these mortgages so i think these are going to be the two worst performing asset are people in the legacy oems as chamath pointed out in a previous prediction and then i just think real estate is the same if you look at a place like texas two years in a row housing values have gone down rent has gone down two years in a row same things happening in other states where they allowed you to build and people are leaving states where they don't allow you to build so that's my worst performing asset trade enterprise was my other

SPEAKER_12: choice but i'll go with something slightly different most anticipated trend for 2025 last year chamath congratulations you said last year that bitcoin would hit 100k for the first time

SPEAKER_50: nailed it half court shot well done i think at the time you made that prediction it was probably trading it felt like a layup felt like a layup to you up 112 percent uh freeberg you said predictive models in ai-driven discovery and pharma and bioengineering how did that do that prediction

SPEAKER_423: well there was a lot of funding and demis won the nobel prize and a nobel prize yeah there you go so

SPEAKER_132: i think it worked out i picked efficiency in the form of ai advancements in labor and outsourcing and i've seen that a bunch with our investment in athena go to athenawow.com okay got my plug in there let's go for most anticipated 2025 trend what do you got chamath i think that there are a handful of

SPEAKER_58: not to overuse an overused term but canaries in the coal mine for the end of the deep state

SPEAKER_47: and i would like to point to one which is this obscure thing called the supplemental loss ratio

SPEAKER_101: and essentially what it is is a mechanism that the banks can use to include or not not include

SPEAKER_47: treasuries and how they calculate reserves etc etc now why is this an interesting thing it's not interesting for many people it's very arcane but if we are unable to manage the debt situation in 2025 i think what you're going to see is maneuvering at the edges of these arcane regulations

SPEAKER_101: that effectively kick the can down the road and there is a chance that that could happen to help the banks because you know we believe that we meaning collectively america that maybe doge won't be as

SPEAKER_58: effective as it needs to be that there's still going to need to be you know 10 20 trillion dollars

SPEAKER_101: of debt issuance to refinance the 10 that's maturing this year and to plug holes in the coming years

SPEAKER_47: my point in all of this is we don't need to understand the details except that if we don't move the goalposts here it is a great sign that the folks that are running the show are the ones that we all elected okay so that is my most anticipated trend small arcane regulatory changes that allow us

David Friedberg: to kick the can down the road stop in its tracks this is an example okay freeberg you got a most

SPEAKER_107: anticipated trend for 2025 my most anticipated trend is around the announcement of build out of nuclear power in the united states in 2025 as a function of deregulation and some new technologies i do think that this new government is going to be much more accommodating and it's going to as i've said in the past i think it's a necessity just because of the the rate at which we have to do power build outs to meet kind of competitive demand against china the united states is going to need to add more power electricity production capacity than we can scale up with any other renewable source so i do believe that nuclear is an inevitability i think that the deregulation will happen in 25 and i do know a lot of very smart people who are actually starting nuclear power companies and have left very good jobs to go

SPEAKER_281: and do this in anticipation of this happening in 25 so i'm very bullish that's a leading indicator

SPEAKER_235: for sure when smart people do something with their time that's a great indicator gavin what do you

SPEAKER_09: got i think ai and nick i sent you a chart i don't know if you could flash it up but um i think ai is going to make more progress per quarter in 2025 than it did per year in 23 and 24 and the reason is just with um with 01 and 03 this is arc agi it's designed you know we keep we keep changing the goal posts for the turing test and agi and i'm sure we're going to change it again as we're going to blow through this and i just think what has happened is we were scaling around around one on one axis which was pre-training and then we started scaling around inference time compute and it's very clear that we have now added a third axis of scaling performance and that is reasoning and what this is is these models

SPEAKER_113: models the internet is composed of answers people giving answers and what the models really benefit from is kind of the internal monologue of somebody getting to that answer and this is you know in ai terms they call it a reasoning trace and it's one reason you know 18 months ago everybody was like oh wow the more code you train a model on the better it does and all sorts of things that have seemingly nothing to do with code but all code you see kind of the reasoning the internal monologue the thought process the step by step and so what's happening is you're using models to generate synthetic data that contains these reasoning traces so you ask a model you know solve this problem it has to be a problem that is functionally verifiable that has an answer or we know the answer and we say show your work and we have it do that many many different ways and times and then you pick the best ones and you kind of feed those back into the model you apply some reinforcement learning to it and so now you're

SPEAKER_09: scaling along three axes that are multiplicative with each other and i just i you know a guy on the google team said tweeted maybe five days ago it's going to be a straight shot to asi artificial super intelligence and i think that might be right ilia gave a talk at europe's ilia suits together um one of kind of the original pioneers of this field and he said something that i thought was scary and he said

SPEAKER_113: these models that reason are inherently unpredictable so the best reasoning models in the world today are the ones that play games the kind of alpha go alpha zero style models and they are constantly making unpredictable moves that no human grand master ever could have come up with and now these models are going to be making similarly unpredictable leaps in all sorts of domains

SPEAKER_19: which you know hopefully will be awesome but you know might not be yeah well they're going to go

SPEAKER_63: around corners that people might not have considered that are non-intuitive and then just to

SPEAKER_04: circle back and do a little call back here remember i asked which banks would have the biggest

SPEAKER_132: chance of being insolvent or having financial collapse or crisis tons of misspellings in there as i typed it while we were talking and you can see what deep my deep research did here it went and said here's what we're going to do we're going to research a bunch of websites and find a list of banks in the us find top banks by us by asset for each one of these banks find their latest financial savings for each of these banks find their capital adequacy ratios for each of these banks find their loan loss you get the idea and then it went and it analyzed and then it created a report this took about 10 minutes and when you look it created this final report here where it gave a list chamath of jp morgan bank of america city group yada yada it did a an analysis of each

SPEAKER_12: one and at the end you can see all the different websites it pulled it was well over 100 websites

SPEAKER_132: that it pulled that's incredible live data from 162 websites and you have to pay for this but it's only twenty dollars a month and its conclusion this analysis has provided a snapshot of the financial health of some of the largest u.s banks while all banks face inherent risks citigroup and wells fargo appear to be the highest risk of insolvency of financial collapse compared to jp morgan chase bank of america goldman sachs citigroup's recent net loss lower cet one ratio and high exposure i mean you start looking at this now i don't know how much of this is correct i'm no expert on this but it does seem like it's a pretty good start of where it's getting to and if you haven't used

SPEAKER_01: 1.5 pro with deep research just go to gemini.google.com i'm not being paid to say this i just think it's

SPEAKER_12: the best product in the market and it's pretty darn impressive okay my most anticipated trend for 2025 was alluded to in an earlier prediction i think by gavin himself mine is that uh exits in dpi

SPEAKER_04: shower town and we'll have this incredible uh distribution as the wrath of lena con ends and mna and

SPEAKER_01: ipos will surge that is my prediction my most anticipated trend okay let's go to most anticipated

SPEAKER_12: media i had two that i was working back and forth from james james guns dc universe with superman coming out this year i think is going to be amazing and or season two could be amazing i predict they're

SPEAKER_132: going to do a clone wars live action series if you don't know the clone wars watch it with your kids it's amazing animated series that takes place during the prequels but i went with a little of a weird choice here i think my most anticipated media is seeing what happens with legacy media outlets owned by billionaires and or people who no longer want to pick a side washington post cnn and la times specifically are steering towards the middle and trying to get back to classic journalism the editors are revolting karen swisher is upset and uh they're adding some right-wing voices it is going

SPEAKER_12: to be popcorn time for everybody so enjoy whatever you want to enjoy star wars i got a little star wars for you with andrew season two i got a little superman or you can watch the chaos in the editorial

SPEAKER_63: newsrooms at washington post and la times what do you got for most anticipated media it is the

SPEAKER_101: the enormity of the files that are going to get declassified and released by the trump administration i think it's going to be unbelievably interesting salacious useful good earnest all of the all of the above so the jfk files the epstein files diddy files the moon landing who knows what they find across all of these other fringe quote-unquote conspiracy theories that may turn out to actually have some shred of truth but all of that let's call it content for lack of a better word that gets released in 2025 by the trump administration i think will be

SPEAKER_188: incredibly interesting what do you got dave media any anticipated media for you what do you got i'm

SPEAKER_52: into ai video games the cost of production comes way down when you use ai and you can have dynamic

SPEAKER_107: storylines you can have new gameplay concepts things that don't exist today i think that the creative talent plus the technical talent that you typically find at development houses can be kind of unleashed with tools that have come to come to market recently we've seen a lot of degenerative video stuff but there's also ways structurally that video games can kind of be rebuilt where the video game engine can run kind of locally it can be generating parameters that can then use an existing rendering engine so you can have entirely new storylines and entirely new kind of plot sequences so i do think that there's going to be a rewrite of video games in the video game industry with the variety of ai kind of capabilities that are hitting market now and it's going to be incredible it's going to be incredible entertainment people are going to people that don't play video games are

SPEAKER_46: going to find stuff that they're going to love gavin most anticipated media 2025. unquestioned 1923 season

SPEAKER_09: too i'm normally a science fiction kind of fantasy or you know spy kind of guy when it comes to tv but 1883 and 1923 were the first tv shows that kind of hit me the way game of thrones did and i'm crazy excited

SPEAKER_454: for that to come out fantastic are you watching landman i'm enjoying landman i haven't watched it yet

SPEAKER_09: i'm excited to try it it's quite fun quite fun turns out this guy taylor sheridan he's i mean

SPEAKER_342: yeah it's incredible he's in the zone i highly recommend day of the jackal i know chamoff also

David Friedberg: loved day of the jackal oh that was really good that was really good that was a good suggestion

SPEAKER_548: for streaming yeah i'm excited yeah absolutely what was your predictions for for this last year

SPEAKER_12: last year chamoff predicted mr beast freeberg ai generated news i predicted gladiator 2 and the

SPEAKER_404: three body problem gladiator 2 was mid but okay three body problem i didn't finish so i guess mid

SPEAKER_140: jimmy's show on amazon prime the mr beast thing was the top unscripted drama in 140 of 180 countries

SPEAKER_04: wow incredible all right we're going to do our prediction markets here i'm going to put up a prediction market which is based upon immigration and the promise that trump made to have 15 million people be deported from the country i think in the first year i'm going to set the over under at five percent of that stated number which is 750 000. so after one year in office will trump have deported 750 000 less or more that's my first prediction how are you gonna measure that you have

SPEAKER_554: to there has to be a like a source of truth on these things right we'll do it based on the white

SPEAKER_130: house's reporting of deportations yeah it's reasonable and we'll check with the polymarket

SPEAKER_12: team if there's a way to do that prediction market obviously but i think that was the biggest issue of the election so i'm putting it up there with just five percent in the first year yeah it is

SPEAKER_09: interesting obama deported i think more than two million people it's like people have forgotten but he was actually really really tough on the border yeah chamath do you have a prediction market

SPEAKER_89: you want to put up the mag gate representation on the s p 500 shrinks below 30 oh that's a good one

SPEAKER_12: that's a good one so dispersion would happen to the other stocks that's a good concentration that's

SPEAKER_350: a good one so we'll finalize these you'll be able to i wanted to kind of play with was microsoft

SPEAKER_52: aws and google cloud revenue growth who's going to win in growth in 2025. i don't know how closely you guys track but um i get a sense that google is kind of accelerating ahead gavin i don't know how

SPEAKER_09: much you've yeah google i mean google is i i wouldn't say they're a lot smaller which makes it

SPEAKER_350: easier for them to grow faster yeah um should we talk about yeah i mean i i guess um who has the

SPEAKER_107: largest gain dollar dollar gain in revenue in cloud revenue in 2025 is it google amazon or microsoft

SPEAKER_09: well it probably won't be google because if they had the largest dollar gain it would mean they were growing at insane rates but i think azure versus aws will be interesting oh i know the other one i

SPEAKER_131: want you to do which was the national debt the national debt has grown about 2 trillion per year

SPEAKER_63: in each of the previous two presidential administrations right so over the last eight years we've gone up over 16 trillion 2 trillion per year average so i'm going to set it at and and trump said he would not increase the national debt i'll just set it at the national debt increases one trillion in the next year over under is that a good prediction market or is it should it be two

SPEAKER_574: trillion um how would you do it yeah so what i would do is i would set the federal debt for december

SPEAKER_415: the u.s treasury market report on federal debt in 2025 and i would set it at 30 37 trillion and see basically the u.s treasury um market report 20 december 2025 above or below 37 trillion it's going to be above i mean let's just call it 38 trillion then yeah you want to basically in order to make

SPEAKER_132: this when you set a line dave it's got to be one where people take either side of it it can't be

SPEAKER_415: everybody we'll do the u.s treasury market report december 2025 federal debt above 38 trillion or below 38

SPEAKER_132: trillion perfect which would be how much added in the year about one and a half yeah i love that i

SPEAKER_63: love that that's a perfect one we'll see if he can make any he can control the spending or it will

SPEAKER_574: just be the same gavin what's your sense on federal debt next year i think like most things it'll take

SPEAKER_09: like immigration it'll take time to get going yeah it just it's going to take a little bit of time but i think they will make progress by the way at some point if i'm here on the all in again i want

SPEAKER_312: to talk about ufos and the drones let's talk about it now do it right now are you going full conspiracy theorist are you are you trying to get your seat here by being a little more alex jones

SPEAKER_265: do you believe those drones were aliens what's going on so i don't know and i think it's very

SPEAKER_09: clear if you look at all the um you know statements from the new jersey mayors and governors

SPEAKER_123: you know who've met with the police the fbi the defense department that they don't know now you know trump said someone in the government knows what they are he also said he was not going to go to benminster anytime soon his resort there i just think over the last i'd say eight years

SPEAKER_09: every 18 months there's a big story in the new york times the washington post the new yorker the atlantic very credible media sources with dozens of interviews with fighter pilots and commercial pilots talking about seeing things with advanced sensors that made no sense to them and then there's kind of a taboo that went away there was an article in the new yorker where they quoted from a bunch of people who were at you know kind of the the skunk works laboratories in the 1950s and said they absolutely saw extraterrestrial materials that have been recovered from a crash that's one reason the us made such big leaps in material science and um you know there was the uamata thing where essentially a lot of you know astronomers said hey this is this is clearly a ufo of some sort including the head of astronomy at harvard and then just the conspiracy theory i would have is if

SPEAKER_123: if if if if if if these are actually ufos and not you know government drones either from the united

SPEAKER_09: states or china you know it seems like the most likely explanation in new jersey is that some sort of a drill and obviously once this hysteria gets going people um you know misidentify commercial airplanes

SPEAKER_123: has drones and like why would ufos have blinking green and red lights but it's just interesting that

SPEAKER_09: there was you know a big concentration of these reports as we're scaling into nuclear technology 1945 to 1960 and then now that ai is getting going which is the next kind of technological phase shift

SPEAKER_592: for humanity there's another big i love this this is great you can come back come back next week

SPEAKER_174: you you want congratulations we have our winner for all and i don't think gavin is now the fourth

SPEAKER_245: best i love this kind of conspiracy but i mean come on i we how do we make a poly market out of this

Chamath Palihapitiya: free i don't know that we can't extraterrestrial are there are there documents that you think trump

SPEAKER_47: will release about the past in in terms of ufos there must be just an entire spectrum of stuff

SPEAKER_101: but that could be subject to foia if we went after it no yeah i mean i think it depends how deeply

SPEAKER_09: it's classified and you know i'm sure if the government doesn't want to give it up um they

SPEAKER_167: won't give it up but you know there's all the you know there's all you think but look let's be honest

SPEAKER_101: you think that there are docs like there there's documentation that the us government has that there

SPEAKER_58: are ufos that there have been we just can't explain it yeah and you know they they call it uaps now

SPEAKER_113: to make it you know not flying saucers but it just feels like something funny what percentage chance

SPEAKER_132: do you put on we have actual knowledge on a percentage basis what percentage chance you put on the government u.s government is sitting on knowledge of extraterrestrial white percent

SPEAKER_113: at least 20 what do you say gavin i would say 25 i would take the over on the 20. okay great so

SPEAKER_63: you think there's a a non a significant small chance that this is the case freeberg sultan of science what chance do you think there is this government sitting on some extraterrestrial life or proof of it

SPEAKER_52: it's a longer conversation i don't have time for this but i i gotta be honest i don't um i don't generally align with the idea that like our very narrow range of like understanding of technology and biology kind of is what visits us or would visit us i think that there's an extension of information gathering that doesn't require moving physical biological life forms from one part of the galaxy to another so i think that the whole premise of like ufos moving bodies around is rooted in the

SPEAKER_107: current state of technology of humanity which is the basis of arthur clark's treatment of 2001 a space odyssey not which was done before the screenplay which was done before the book and the treatment which you can buy i think highlights this the best which is eventually every civilization reaches a sufficiently advanced level of technology that you no longer need to physically move the bodies of the the biological organisms around that you simply are gathering information and affecting information because once you have the ability to convert any molecule into any other molecule and you have access to sufficient energy which you will eventually evolve to be able to do you can basically turn your local part of the universe into anything you want it to turn into and then you're simply gathering information from all over the rest of the universe so i would argue that there doesn't really make a lot of basic sense in why alien bodies would want to move

SPEAKER_131: around the galaxy i'm just saying it right now if trump releases information on extraterrestrial life

SPEAKER_132: i'm voting for him to have a third term i'm putting it out there i'm going full maga he gets a third term for me we're changing the constitution this has been another amazing episode of the all in one

SPEAKER_101: last question for gavin oh well let's forget okay do you think extraterrestrial life built the pyramids

SPEAKER_123: is that the most plausible explanation to the accuracy i don't know it is it is so strange the way there are you know in so many i would say cultures all over the world pre you know we are closer in time

SPEAKER_09: to cleopatra than she was to the time of the great pyramids like that was a long time ago but it's just weird that in so many cultures all over the world there are these depictions of what

SPEAKER_113: looked like astronauts and then there's all these renaissance era paintings that clearly show what we would call ufos in the skies over cities so i don't know i just think it's i'm with you i love

SPEAKER_138: conspiracy gavin this is not a conspiracy theory if you're jason if you're a questioning person these things create these weird unen you know open loops that it's like i think we're in a simulation

SPEAKER_89: so i'm fully i'm fully vested in it anyway freeberg's gonna drive back freeberg's driving home i think the

SPEAKER_12: pyramids the best most credible thing i saw on the pyramids was that they used water and they raised water in channels so they put them on wood slats or something and then they would raise like in like the um panama canal they would do canals and float them up and then place them and then release the

SPEAKER_04: water which you know sounds great to me this has been another amazing episode of the all in podcast

SPEAKER_617: and uh thank you to everybody let's have an amazing 2025 to everybody let's kick ass yeah let's all

SPEAKER_619: kick ass let's kick ass 2025 let's get it take care all right we'll see you all next time bye-bye

SPEAKER_631: bye