SPEAKER_00: yesterday the game went off the chain it was it's we started off at 500 and a thousand and then we were like ah these 500 chips are so annoying then we started to play a thousand a thousand then it

SPEAKER_01: was a thousand two thousand then it's a one thousand two thousand four thousand then one two four eight then one two four eight sixteen one two four eight sixteen thirty two thousand

SPEAKER_09: coming around oh my god how much can lose what was the big winner and big loser how much i'm not

SPEAKER_08: gonna say just tell us how much out 800 i put at minus 800 minus 700 don't say these names bro

SPEAKER_15: come on how'd you do chamath okay you can tell that's your mouth lost because when you ask him how'd you do and it's like just he goes from this super effusive talking about the game to just like

SPEAKER_21: one word fine okay fine okay yeah how was your night good he's like look i shit 42 million

SPEAKER_23: dollars for breakfast it was fine here we go three two hey everybody welcome to another episode of the

SPEAKER_36: all in podcast 50 episodes down and uh yeah we'll definitely get three or four more in before the

SPEAKER_39: ben breaks up uh with us today again uh from an undisclosed location david sacks the rain man himself chamath palihapitiya the dictator and the queen of quinoa david friedberg how's everybody

SPEAKER_41: doing how's everybody feeling how's everybody's week going really great yours just just great awesome

SPEAKER_43: i uh i i feel really good i um i feel super grateful oh really the stock market's up today he feels

SPEAKER_50: grateful grateful i mean it's been a good week it's been a good week i feel so much equanimity

SPEAKER_53: mark is up four percent uh freeberg how are you doing my wife went to the um hospital three times this week all three times thinking she was in labor hey um are you how how i mean we're two centimeters

SPEAKER_57: dilated we're still waiting here i mean we are there too and we're just waiting any day like literally any hour um so we were how do we get action on this can we can we bet who's going to come first or i

SPEAKER_00: think i think freeberg's is going to come first because it's his third it's only not it's allison's

SPEAKER_60: third it's not second yeah yeah so we're gonna lay odds two to one what do we get i'll take the over

SPEAKER_62: under on what day is it today today is the 15th we're getting induced on the 26th that's 11 days

Chamath Palihapitiya: or no i'll take the over under on the i'll take the over under on uh the 21st that you're shutting

SPEAKER_60: the line i'll set the line at the 21st of october i'm going over i'll go over for that this is for that book it okay yeah so you for now at the over you got the under what do you got sacks over under on

SPEAKER_73: the uh 21st 26 is the expected date what are we betting on that analysis some people pay attention

SPEAKER_72: when their children are born and when their children are born we're trying to get action

SPEAKER_76: aren't you guys a little too old to be having kids yeah i mean are you even going to see them graduate

SPEAKER_83: i mean some of us are a whole bar mitzvah younger than you exactly so you snipped i would if anybody

SPEAKER_84: was snipped i would guess it would be sacks are you are you snippy snippy is this the type of

SPEAKER_86: vital information you think the audience wants to know yeah i think they do actually i think that's

SPEAKER_90: a yes i think he's been snipped chamath is definitely not snipped nope you can you can

SPEAKER_92: you want to come over here and uh conduct an inspection i don't think i don't think you can

SPEAKER_96: it's not visually understandable yeah freeberg's definitely not snipped as proven by his

SPEAKER_97: wife being pregnant no i don't think you say snip bro i think you just say vasectomy

SPEAKER_103: ah i'm just you know i think you say snip snip i think sax has been snipped that's actually a good bet we could book it on sax being snipped okay listen a lot of topics to get to i think we were trying to get to this topic last week uh there's been a supply chain uh interruption right now there's

SPEAKER_39: some shortages obviously of key components like microchips we all know this according to car and driver the top three models impacted by the chip shortage were the ford f-series pickup trucks

SPEAKER_103: jeep cherokee suvs and the chevy equinox suvs basically a lot of the cars uh that have advanced driving systems are now removing them i was looking at getting an suv for the winner and i was looking at the catalog escalade and they took self-driving out of the 2022 model or the autopilot basically

SPEAKER_39: because they can't get the chips um and we all know why this is happening obviously covid uh and then also on top of it demand so people are buying second computers third computers places like dell are having an apple are selling a lot of desktops a lot of laptops um and uh there's also a labor shortage so the labor force obviously uh here in the united states is much smaller than it was uh we all know that people are raising salaries to try to get people to come back to work they're turning off the bonus unemployment uh early in some states we're here in october this is all supposed to be turned off by now so i guess i'll start with you chamoff in terms of the markets here uh what do

SPEAKER_111: you think is happening and is this an acute risk or just something that will pass i think the well this

SPEAKER_01: is where i think i kind of generally disagree with the market i think that most people are under the

SPEAKER_67: impression that these are short term um kind of contractions and expansions and that this is just the thing that needs to get work through the system as we readjust to a post covet world blah blah blah

SPEAKER_115: i think it's different and the reason i think it's different is if you just look at uh one thing and

SPEAKER_62: one thing only which is that we have a massive labor shortage in america and there is an incredible stat that i saw um which was the average hourly earnings of non-manager people in hospitality and travel and the average salary the mean salary was around 20 some odd dollars an hour and it's now 33 bucks an hour and so what that to me says is that we are going through a really sustained period where you cannot get people to do the work that needs to get done biden had to call the port of la and try to get these guys to be open 24 hours a day the president of the united states is calling a local port trying to get it to stay open but why can't they stay open because you have long sherman you have all these unionized folks who will expect to get certain levels of compensation which they deserve in order to do that work 24 7 but then all of that is going to get put through the system and if you still have millions of jobs it needs to get done in order for the economy to function the only efficient way that that's going to get resolved is by raising salaries and those are consistent and persistent wait those things are not just like oh you know what i gave yes i did say 50 bucks an hour but now i'm taking you back yeah you can't take that back that's going to be that's so and then so i tend to so that that's one thing and then second so there's people right so labor capital i just think it's getting more and more expensive to get folks to do work and then there's the raw materials that you use to make anything and everything that i see is that stuff is going bananas and so i put these two things together and i'm like i think this stuff is here to stay um i'm really kind of a little bit of a you know and i and i had not worried and you you can see in every episode before this i was always consistently like there is no inflation you can fade the inflation trade now i'm kind of positioning

SPEAKER_67: myself to uh hedge myself in this situation all right freeberg uh we've seen the pictures uh

SPEAKER_39: of the long beach uh and the los angeles uh ports there's just ships out there like i think 70 or 80 is where it peaked at uh in july i don't know have the latest data here of when it updated um but is there not a silver lining here that if people are making more money then we're going to increase the size of the middle class and we're going to ex you know increase upward mobility and that it is a

SPEAKER_103: double-edged sword it's great that we increased the middle class but then they're going to want to buy stuff so people are now making 35 bucks an hour and they were making 20 now they got more disposable now

SPEAKER_127: they're going to go on amazon and buy more stuff and it's going to accelerate this problem is it not

SPEAKER_128: the challenge is the rate of change this is what the fed tries to manage and you know there's a white house economic advisory committee that's involved in trying to figure out what's going to happen here because the current estimate is it's going to take at least a year or probably a year to work through the current log jam and the global supply chains and during that period of time as

SPEAKER_57: shema points out what's happening is the cost for goods is climbing because people have to um charge more because there's limited inventory and people are bidding up the the value of that inventory as they do that the businesses um end up needing to get more labor and so they have to pay more to hire people if they pay more to hire people those people end up demanding more and the cycle can

SPEAKER_128: actually go the wrong direction where you have an inflationary spike that persists how do you taper that

SPEAKER_57: inflation it's not necessarily great for economic growth if you can't produce the stuff and it can actually cause these runaway kind of effects in the dynamic system of supply and demand when you have these these things clogging up the the system for supply so um so so it is a real risk and it is the biggest thing that um you know the white house this economic task force is kind of trying to figure out right now is where's the balance lie where you can um you know basically try and taper this inflationary effect that's being caused by this log jam in the supply chain without causing economic disruption by rising it by raising interest rates um and so it's a really uh kind of complicated you know second and third derivative formula that needs to kind of be resolved and that's why so many of these little

SPEAKER_01: elements are so important to get right by the way rates by the way central bankers around the world have raised rates the only place that hasn't gone up is europe ecb and the united states

SPEAKER_129: the federal reserve so and let's be honest you know europe and the united states we absorb labor and materials from all around the world right we are the net importers we are the net ultimate buyers of last resort of all of these things and so if you're seeing inflation in those other you know supply driven economies they are going to come on shore they're going to hit us in the face i think prices

SPEAKER_57: are going up the other the other free market argument that could be made is that these um these current trends will accelerate a trend towards more automation of uh low cost labor um because it now will make sense for businesses to invest in the capital in the capex um in the infrastructure and ultimately for technology companies to build that that tooling uh to support that infrastructure that will automate jobs like working in fast food like doing local delivery like doing factory assembly um like moving things across the country and trucks so self-driving trucks um uh you know factory automation biomanufacturing additive and 3d manufacturing and 3d printing these are all industries that could benefit from the fact that labor now for kind of you know traditionally low-income work has gotten so expensive that it starts to make sense to switch to the technology alternative which historically may have been too expensive but now starts to make economic sense to businesses this is and so there's a number of these automation industries that may significantly benefit and that ends up ultimately being deflationary and the market comes into balance so that's another way to kind

SPEAKER_135: of think about the macro on what may play out there's a bigger risk here than just inflation i mean there's also a risk of of stagnation or stagflation because it's not just that prices are going up and

SPEAKER_137: workers wages are going up which could be a good thing but the goods and services just aren't being produced so i mean i know like my own experience i recently ordered a tesla when i got a tesla a couple years ago like i got it in two weeks it was like almost instant this time they wanted me to wait two months and it's got an alert that's going to take two more months beyond that so we have no idea and if it if you know tesla doesn't get most of the money i don't think until i actually take delivery of the car right that's when you make final payment so now they can't book that revenue and those earnings and tesla isn't even the car company that's most affected by this you know the big um you know

SPEAKER_138: traditional american auto companies like ford are even more affected so if companies cannot deliver their products you that can cause an economic recession and i think like these are major storm clouds looming on the horizon now what is the cause of this i mean i think it's it's um it's multifactorial a lot of things that jama said i just want to really highlight this port issue there was a great uh tweet storm by zach canter earlier in the week where he said the supply chain crisis is a clever rebrand it makes it seem like there are grand exogenous forces at work rather than the unions holding ports for ransom while dozens of ships pile up working

SPEAKER_137: just two shifts with a two-hour break in between the country at their mercy uh and he goes on to elaborate on that and that is why i mean they're allowed to do that but but to jama's point uh this is why biden felt the need to to get involved so um that the problem is if you read the fine print on this story of biden announcing that the ports of uh la and long beach will open 24 hours which they clearly need to to get the goods to market if you read the like the bottom part of the story

SPEAKER_138: everyone's announcing their intention to go 24 7 but there is no date certain for when that's going to be it's a negotiation with the union so to your point they are going to have to negotiate with the unions um you know initially it looked like the story was that biden was going to use his sway his his clout with the unions to basically push them to take a deal but i don't think he's really done that everyone's just announcing their intentions to negotiate well you know if the ports are holding the whole country hostage like this that could cause a recession i think that's

SPEAKER_83: going to rebound very badly i think they're running 24 7 now aren't they sex long beach and la are both

SPEAKER_135: running 24 7. well i just posted this article that came out um i mean like yesterday and it says

SPEAKER_138: it was published uh two days ago and it said there was not a date certain for when oh it's updated october 14th which is yesterday and if you read the bottom of the article it says they have not determined a date for when 24 7 operations will start they've just merely announced their intention

SPEAKER_128: the biden administration says it's not really they announced it as if it was a done done look unless

SPEAKER_135: biden is willing to listen i mean chamath you're right that they're entitled to negotiate but here's the thing i mean they're holding the whole country hostage now they're holding the economy hostage

SPEAKER_138: so at a certain point if their demands are unreasonable as it's i think proper for the president united states to step in and say guys this is ridiculous you have to go back to work we're going to make you know we're going to help negotiate a deal here that's what reagan did with the air traffic controllers the air traffic controllers union shut down the whole commercial aviation system reagan got involved said you cannot shut down the economy this way you must go back to work yes exactly so i think biden is probably not that these longshoremen are or the ports i guess

SPEAKER_36: they're not striking they're just not doing an extra shift but he could look if they're doing if

SPEAKER_150: they're doing two shifts if they're doing two shifts two hours a day that's like withholding

SPEAKER_151: that's that's like a partial strike wait they're doing two two-hour shifts or two eight hours eight hour shifts they can't be doing two-hour shifts why would anybody go to work for two hours read what

SPEAKER_138: zach hanner posted he said that they're working just two shifts with a two-hour break in between okay

SPEAKER_152: but those might be two eight-hour shifts with a two-hour break in between is how i read that no

SPEAKER_138: no he says but read the the tweet here he says uh before any changes uh this coming week the longshore routine at the ports involve two shifts 8 a.m to 4 p.m and 6 p.m to 3 a.m um an overnight shift to five hours is available but is up to 50 more expensive and rarely used so basically you're talking about yeah it's an 8 to 4 p.m shift with a two-hour break or 6 p.m to 3 a.m so basically yes so it is um for that's six hours that's two six-hour shifts they should be running it like you know

SPEAKER_39: elon runs the tesla factories when they're building which is 24 hours a day overlapping shifts just

SPEAKER_138: get a sense of urgency here they're gonna have to pay him some reasonable overtime but they can't the unions can't hold the whole country hostage and look if biden unless biden steps in to solve this we will have a recession so it will oh so we do think that this could be a recession uh i think it's bigger than just the ports i don't think reopening the ports is is the entirety of it i think there's a lot of other things going on i mean jake out to a point you've made we had four million people drop out of the labor force last month i mean that was unbelievable so yeah the unemployment rate looks great but the number of people actually going to work is significantly lower i mean that was a huge shock to all the economists seeing that many people drop out there's still too many people who essentially are being paid not to work in one form or another and that is hurting the economy you also have this issue in in china which is very interesting this was i think covered in the new york times about how dependent chinese factories are on coal and which you know is a bad thing obviously that's not a clean energy source but because of restrictions on coal it's actually started to impact manufacturing over there we can debate whether that's a good thing or bad thing but it's

David Sacks: contributing to the effect um i suspect that china has woken up to this and they will they're not going to shut down their economy because of concerns about clean energy so i assume this is a very temporary decision um and then of course you have the whole issue of covert restrictions i mean there were a lot of international covert restrictions it was just wasn't just in the us that where they were shutting down factories or creating you know a lot of rules that got in the way of keeping factories open um they were doing this internationally and there's a lot of regulations around seafaring

SPEAKER_138: as well because of covert restrictions so you have this pile up i would say of of of regulations ultimately i'd say with covet as the origin that have now caused this um supply chain crisis and unless it gets fixed it could absolutely cause a 1970s style stagflation type recession next year

SPEAKER_103: travato you buy that do you think we could have a this combination of people refusing to go to work or just opting out and saying like yeah it's even if you pay me 35 or 40 i'm just not interested i have

SPEAKER_01: enough no i don't fts and i don't want to go back to work i i actually think that's exactly what it is there was this really interesting um tweet that i saw on twitter hopefully nick you can find it but

SPEAKER_129: it was some kid that basically said you know i'm growing up in atlanta and there's a bunch of kids that i used to run with um you know who would otherwise be in the streets right causing all kinds of trouble and these kids are now at home like specking nfts and like you know posting on tiktok or whatever it's just a completely different reimagination of like labor and time spent and and that's just a very small example and so that maybe touches retail or maybe touches you know quick service restaurants but there's all these different things where now that at the

SPEAKER_62: end of this pandemic people are making very different decisions about their time and how to spend their money and again i'll tell you again there's a lot of people you got to remember how many

SPEAKER_129: people in the united states have died or are dealing now with some reasonably important health issues at the back end of coronavirus half a million people a million people i want you to keep in mind what i

SPEAKER_62: told you guys before there is 70 70 trillion dollars that has to get transferred down from all these baby boomers down to these people in their 20s 30s and 40s and don't think for a second that they're not making different optimization decisions around perceived wealth so i just think inflation is here i think the labor shortage is going to get worse not better i think we're going to have to pay people

SPEAKER_129: more to get out of it i think prices are going up input costs are going up energy costs are going up um

SPEAKER_62: so this is it and i mean let's i think i think that probably the fed and the ecb are really raising this time next year they're probably in a really really tighter posture what do you think freeberg

SPEAKER_168: we should also remember that there are going to be some responses from sorry freeberg glassing tech

SPEAKER_00: stocks in the toilet why because no bueno no no bueno for no cash flow growth stocks yeah in rising

SPEAKER_06: everyone's going to start buying yield when yucky poops nobody wants it yucky poops wait let's

SPEAKER_172: explain this to the audience why freeberg why why are you agreeing with you i mean once interest

SPEAKER_57: rates go up you'll see that dividend yields will go up which means stock prices go down because people will expect a higher return because if i can buy treasury bonds and make a few points of return on my money and i'm going to have to buy a stock i'm going to want to i'm going to demand a few more points of dividend yield on that stock and so so so the price technique you know the the price for stocks will typically go down to match the yield that you're going to get from these more risk-free

SPEAKER_129: investments no no to be more precise a stock is either uh a promissory note about cash today or effectively a promissory note about cash in the future the thing with tech stocks is we tell

SPEAKER_62: everybody the same thing your money is going to come 30 years from now because we're going to be a monopoly by then and every dollar that i have today i'm going to reinvest into r d and engineering and in a in an environment where interest rates are zero you're happy to do it because you're like well great these guys are investing at way better rates than zero which is what i get from you know my bank and so i want facebook and google and amazon and all these startups to be putting all this money in the ground on my behalf but when interest rates start going up they say no hold on a second i need more money up front less money in the future because the future becomes more uncertain and that's the big trade-off for tech companies where they get really pummeled okay well is there a number and by the way

SPEAKER_57: interest rate there's a class of tech companies right like amazon sorry like microsoft oracle google where you are actually seeing an apple you're getting dividends and you're getting share buybacks where the cash is coming out of the business and those are the mature businesses that also still happen to have growth attached to them and i don't see how portfolios are going to shed those assets um you're going to shed the more speculative hey you know we're not yet at a point of maturity we're still 20 30 years out whatever yeah the guys that are investing and there's no kind of line of sight to true cash flow coming back to the shareholders but look at the end of the day one of the point i was trying to make earlier was that um there is going to be a response right so we've seen remember when the pandemic kind of set in and everyone started ordering from home amazon rushed out and hired 100 000 local delivery drivers they bought all these trucks and they built their own supply chain infrastructure for last mile delivery to get products to people's homes and we're now seeing on the other side walmart home depot target and other big retailers integrating their supply chain to get product into stores and so they're starting to buy trucks hire people pay them significant you know wages to be drivers on staff for them rather than contracting to these third parties that are saying oh we don't have any inventory we don't have any trucks we don't have any drivers we can't do anything for you now and so the response is think about it your product company your tesla tesla just went out and did this massive deal um in caledonia to source you know some mineral that they need to make batteries or to make their uh their cars i can't remember exactly what it was nickel but you're you're increasingly going to see the businesses that have a balance sheet step up and actually start to integrate their supply chains rather than full stack more more result is kind of this disparate set of service providers each of which is only kind of is all typically operating at max capacity and then they can't kind of respond to these sorts of jolts to the system and so we're going to see a lot of investment i think by businesses that make product or deliver product to the consumer as they try and integrate the supply chain problem themselves and that may take some of the strain off the system and some of this inflationary risk out of the equation we'll see over the next couple of quarters but certainly in this last earnings report i saw some statistic a very large percentage of earnings reports spoke directly about supply chain disruption affecting the forecast for the business and the ability for the for the business to meet their forecast goals and that's just hurting everyone okay so throwing so they're gonna have to do something about it if they're a resource to do it right

SPEAKER_39: all right so sacks though there are some silver linings here companies become more resilient uh they

SPEAKER_103: become more automated they build a full stack they build their own factories we're seeing uh you know the taiwanese semiconductor company is doing a seven billion dollar project to build a new factory in japan funded by the japanese government so we're seeing a lot of redundancy redundancy and we're also seeing the middle class grow if people are making 35 bucks an hour 40 bucks an hour and they're getting healthcare and they're starting to have uh overtime and other concessions being made that builds the middle class

SPEAKER_39: it sounds like we're solving some problems uh as well as you know dealing with this i i guess what you

SPEAKER_98: call absolutely inflate looks at inflation is a good thing i know people think it's a it's a like a really

SPEAKER_62: bad terrible thing there are certain kinds of inflation that are really productive we we have had to find a way to fight the bad parts of technology technology is great nine you know nine out of ten things it's amazing efficiency you know uh all these great characteristics that it gives you but one crappy externality of technology is that it's deflationary you can do more with less and that's fundamentally not great for earnings it's not great for labor participation it's not great for all these things that people you know are really upset about today so it's great for the individual company getting those games i actually think it's kind of like it actually balances out the natural pace of of technology which is like you have the natural ability to just actually have cheaper faster better this inherent efficiency that's building up on one side of the ledger but then what's great is on the other side of the ledger you actually have you know labor being able to balance it out and i think that that's a really good thing because they can demand

SPEAKER_98: more to do the rest of the work that's not covered by tech that's important what are your thoughts

SPEAKER_36: about this expanding middle class isn't it a great thing that you know people are saying i'll stay home

SPEAKER_103: instead of making 12 bucks an hour it's an unfair wage it's not a livable wage and then all these companies are saying you know what okay well they folded so quick the big companies they went to 18 to

SPEAKER_89: 35 an hour instantly they always had the money to pay more they just didn't need to increasing

SPEAKER_200: wages in real terms is a good thing i think you have to ask why the wages are going up is it going up because of increased productivity which is a good thing or is it going up because of inflation if

SPEAKER_137: it's going up in um if it's going up because of inflation then the wage gains are somewhat illusory

SPEAKER_138: because all the products that consumers want to buy are also going up in price all we've done is sort of is devalue the dollar so we have to we don't know yet whether these um well we do know that inflation is actually very high we don't know exactly if these uh wage gains are permanent or

SPEAKER_137: just a function of that um but let's go back to this inflation point for a second i think this is actually really important we're at something like a 5.1 inflation rate it's just about the highest um since the late 70s early 80s now we have this threat of a supply chain crisis this is you know this is potentially we have a supply chain crisis yeah exactly i mean people can't sell cars

SPEAKER_138: right this is a recipe for stagflation 2.0 now now i think there's an assumption that if inflation persists the fed will simply just fight it they'll increase interest rates someone they'll control it but i actually think that the degrees of of action that the fact can take here might be more constrained than people think i just want to flag so one of the primary sources i use for the the national debt is this website fred.stlouisfed.org it's a good website that has a lot of charts by a branch of the of the fed so they have this chart we've seen that federal debt as a percentage of gdp is at sort of all-time

David Sacks: peacetime highs you know we're now we were at 100 for a few years and now because of covid we just rocketed up over 120 we're close to 140 now the argument by mostly liberal economists that the debt

SPEAKER_138: didn't matter was because the debt service remained very low on this debt so we had a huge increase in debt but because interest rates were so low uh the the the the debt service was still very very small and i think you know they have a good piece on this website about this as well that i'll just post here in the notes but um i think i don't know if you guys remember back to um a pod we did in may where we talked about stanley druckenmiller came out swinging against the fed and he warned about this very situation i just want to like i want to just read this this article that we covered back i think in may it feels like an eternity ago but remember when we just talked about this what druckenmiller warned is that if yields on the 10-year treasury rise to the projected level of 4.9 percent which is simply the historical average the government spending would be close to 30 percent of gdp each year simply paying back interest expense compared to two percent last year unless it monetizes the debt which experts think is unlikely and drunkenmiller release would have horrible implications for us dollar so in other words we now have this enormous debt the only reason why debt service payments aren't crowding out the entire federal budget is because we've had interest rates at historically abnormal lows zeros basically yeah so how exactly is the fed gonna fight inflation if they jack up

SPEAKER_208: interest rates to where they should be say 4.9 percent then the entire federal budget will be

SPEAKER_36: going actually working against themselves right it's it's like you're the bank and taking the loan at

SPEAKER_103: the same time this is like somebody who gets a variable interest mortgage and they get five ten years into their mortgage and then all of a sudden they go from interest only and some low interest rate and then they have to pay market rate and they realize they can't afford the home we might not be able to afford the budget we're putting out there is what you're saying sax well i'm saying the

SPEAKER_212: fed may not have the tools all the tools they want to fight inflation if it comes back or i mean it's

SPEAKER_138: going to be politically very unpopular i mean can you imagine the pressure the fed will be under not to raise rates if it means that all of these discretionary programs basically have to be cut that we have an austerity mode in the federal budget how are we going to pay for all this debt service

SPEAKER_39: yeah and then the first thing they're going to think about is hey maybe we should cut military spending since it's the largest at the time when china is doing sorties in and around taiwan and the south china sea and we've got you know six you know navies doing coordinated uh

SPEAKER_111: sailing there which i think is a adjacent issue here historically historically great powers that

SPEAKER_218: want to remain great don't owe over 100 of their economy uh especially you know when a lot of it's

SPEAKER_137: held by uh foreign powers i mean that is a situation that makes us fragile not anti-fragile right because if we hit a crisis if there is you know some unforeseen military conflict

SPEAKER_138: what what glass do we break now in case of emergency we've already spent we're already at we're in peace time and we have wartime levels of debt um and now inflation is making a return and the fed is gonna have to make some really tough choices about whether to control inflation and essentially impose austerity on the on government spending or whether they monetize the debt which will lead to a runaway depreciation of the dollar neither one of those things is a good situation how would we have reduced austerity well they can't but but again if debt service rises to 30 of the federal budget where's that money going to come from you have to raise taxes and cut spending you have to do which is why and i think this is joe manchin's point you know if you've been listening to joe manchin talk about the current reconciliation bill and he says look 3.5 trillion doesn't make sense we don't know what situation what situation we're going to confront in the future we don't know what crises are coming we're going to reduce our ability to tackle all those future problems by overspending right now that's been joe manchin's argument and looking at this risk of stagflation in the forms of the supply chain shortage and this 5.1 interest rate number you'd have to say

SPEAKER_208: that if we want to preserve any flexibility next year to raise interest rates uh you better be really

SPEAKER_67: careful about how much debt you incur now jamal agree uh yeah look when when when drugs said that the 10-year break even was sort of you know at a five-year high at the time um we're back there now um look i i'm just gonna i i said this on cnbc i'll just say it again um i think it's coming um i don't think it's a short-term blip and i think that we are in a period that will resemble the late 70s um and i think that you know you kind of want to be risk off and not own risk assets um and by the

SPEAKER_129: way it is hard okay because like we are all all of us all four of us both risk all we're both risk

SPEAKER_62: on and all we own are risk assets that are you know it's one thing to say let's take risk but you could take risk in like lower of all things this is this is like taking risk in the most risky thing

SPEAKER_103: that's what we all do and at a time when people have run up the valuations of private market companies to a level that just nobody can understand i mean look i think you got a year

SPEAKER_129: to 18 months to kind of clean this stuff up meaning like as market participants we can you know we can chuck and jive and get everything into a decent place but it's coming um and i hope i'm wrong but

Chamath Palihapitiya: i think we'll look back on this and we'll say we said it probably eight to 12 months before it really

SPEAKER_96: reared its ugly head but it's coming uh freeberg any thoughts on what's happening in taiwan and what

SPEAKER_39: uh you know even a modest conflict there would do to markets given how to sax's point this is the opposite of anti-fragile we are in like full fragility here i mean this is like you know a tray full of

SPEAKER_242: champagne glasses on a boat in rough seas at any point we could trip and everything comes crashing

SPEAKER_244: down does it feel like that to you freeberg or do you feel like we're going to be able to navigate

SPEAKER_246: this i mean i don't know about taiwan but i think we're just going to keep inflating our way out of

SPEAKER_57: this mess okay remember like that that's what we did last year and um it's what we'll do again this year the the the biggest um losers in that equation are the um uh the middle class uh because uh you know the middle class actually owns assets that are now going to be worth less um folks who are not in the middle class that are below the middle class don't own assets so it doesn't really affect them they just make higher wages but stuff costs more so they'll be fine and then you know wealthy individuals will end up getting taxed away uh to fund some of this and i think that's the inevitable kind

SPEAKER_200: of way that the equation balances right but i mean think about how much tax rates are about to go up right now in this reconciliation bill we haven't even gotten to like any of these crises by the way

SPEAKER_137: we don't know for sure if they're going to happen i think we could describe these things as storm clouds right now that are very much on the horizon multiple storm clouds right sort of like they're

SPEAKER_138: converging right and if they do materialize in the way that we're talking about what weapons do we have left in order to fight them what weapons of fiscal policy what weapons

SPEAKER_253: of monetary policy we're already going to have taxes at an all-time high yeah yeah well we're going to

SPEAKER_180: have taxes no we're going to print money and we're going to pay ourselves we're going to go to the central bank it's what you said we're going to monetize our debt and that doesn't go up that is

SPEAKER_57: the top um marginal tax rate was what 70 80 percent in the uh 60s and 70s i mean you know that's

SPEAKER_200: likely where we're going to go back to well i think we're already going to be back there as a result of the reconciliation the spending we've already done yeah but we've already broken the

SPEAKER_57: glass in case of emergency we're already done you're going to you're going to see some of these wealth taxes get chased down you're going to see the top marginal tax rate go up 70 80 you know i mean i think that's the way the equation balances it's not like the world's going to end we're going to solve it by taking assets away from some and we're going to inflate all the all assets like that

SPEAKER_262: sounds pretty bad yeah yeah i mean 78 if you by the way it's not going to 70 it's not going to

David Sacks: most people it will affect most people it will affect most people even though they don't think it will because it's going to affect the quality of our economy i'm just trying to predict what's going

SPEAKER_57: to happen sax i'm not saying this is the solution to our problem i mean i think the solution to our problem is technology but you know the question is does that come to market fast enough say say more

SPEAKER_83: about that i i feel like we need a deflationary set of technologies that can like mitigate all of

SPEAKER_57: these effects right so software automation self-driving trucks things that take the labor force because people don't want to work low-income jobs factually and you know now that there's a world now that there's in america now that there's a world where people don't have where people have other options because other jobs have been created because we pump so much money into these other industries we're seeing people migrate away from low-income jobs like driving a truck for 10 an hour or working at mcdonald's for eight dollars an hour and so to fill that gap and avoid the economic collapse that will occur in those sectors of the economy you need to automate and you need to find solutions that can replace the labor with some alternative technology solution that actually allows the product to be fulfilled to the consumers that demand it um or you're going to see rates go up like you're going to be paying 12 for a hamburger because you're going to have to pay everyone

SPEAKER_96: 25 for working mcdonald's would would an easy or tomorrow's actually you can take it i'm sure

SPEAKER_39: you're both going to have opinions here but um we've been battling over immigration and nobody even seems to understand how many people are coming into the country or under what system

SPEAKER_103: should we not tie the number of jobs available you know over the trailing x number of months years quarters to how many people are bringing to the country and couldn't we solve this by allowing five million people a million people whatever it is per year a half million people in to take

SPEAKER_39: those low-income jobs and utilize that uh group of people to you know uh get businesses back on track

SPEAKER_117: i think it's too convenient to say that these are all low-income jobs i don't think that's necessarily true um and i think that it then starts to introduce a whole bunch of other constraints

SPEAKER_62: to the system these are folks that then need health care these are folks that need child care these are folks that need you know that they are also um attacks on resources as well right we are all attacks on the natural resources and the infrastructure of our country and so you know it i don't think that that's the solution necessarily to that specific problem but what if the jobs that were the people who are coming in we have enough people here to do the work but then we don't what we don't have is the market clearing price for that work to get done and so what i'm just trying to say is i think that the simpler and more obvious solution is to raise salaries until you get people to fill these jobs and i think that it's happening and so i do think that over the next year or two or three you're going to see you know labor rates basically go back up and employment rates go back down and salaries go back up and inflation go back up all of these things are going to happen together that's the solution i think immigration is is it is a solution to a completely different problem which is which is that we're not

SPEAKER_283: competitive like i've i really so you're talking about bringing an elite highly educated technical people

SPEAKER_62: look i i really think that running a country should really be like running a sports team you know and recruit the best talent and you should really be recruiting the best talent you should be looking at game film you should be coming up with plays you should be running and testing those plays you know you should have different plays that you run in the first quarter versus the fourth quarter different plays when you're on the goal line sure you know and and i think that like when you look at professional sports one thing is that they don't see color gender sexual orientation they see ability to be performant statistics and statistical excellence yeah and then they go seek statistical excellence and and and if you translate that to a country my simple rubric on immigration is every

SPEAKER_184: year there's a draft and america is the free place every free agent we're the yankees yeah we're the

SPEAKER_289: warriors yeah all right the yankees we're like the warriors okay these are trash jesus christ i'm just

SPEAKER_291: going who historically has won the most we're the new england patriots okay cheater we're the chicago

SPEAKER_62: bulls we're the you know we we are the team that everybody would want to play for it's up to us to have a good gm and a good president of the team and a good front office that just picks off all these

SPEAKER_89: smart geniuses this should be i think your great point here chamath is you're saying let's take the

SPEAKER_103: emotion out of this immigration and let's make it a point-based system which by the way the point-based system is what australia new zealand the uk canada all do and americans don't even know what the point base system is sacks what are your views uh as somebody who i've heard leans a little bit to the right on opening up immigration or maybe sweeping all this amazing talent globally who have the highest

SPEAKER_137: statistics go i like chamas sports team analogy we want to get the biggest stars from all over the world to come to the us i mean i think that makes sense i think you know this the so-called

SPEAKER_135: immigration issue gets so confused with so many different things i mean first of all there's immigration and then there's border security right and immigration or just having a border period and so many people think that if you're pro-immigration you basically can't have a border i

SPEAKER_137: mean that makes no sense um you know we need to have a border and we need to have actual like have an actual immigration policy shouldn't just get be like okay you make it across i i like i like what

SPEAKER_297: you're saying or if you're a guy ron desantis becomes president what should his what will you tell

SPEAKER_143: ron since you're like i like what you're saying i like what you're saying with the point system having it be skills-based i mean that makes sense right would the republicans do that they've been so

SPEAKER_103: emotionally tied to this issue because of trump can they actually you know tie themselves to something performance-based and be not emotional about it can they change their position i think trump

SPEAKER_135: actually did endorse like a more skills-based immigration system i think that i don't know that republicans are the ones being emotional about it i mean the people who are here sides are clearly super emotional about it the side that i think is like insane are the people who don't think we need a border i mean you clearly have to have a border yes and even obama came out

SPEAKER_138: recently made a statement that you have to have a border because the the the progressive left had gone so far it's almost like they wanted to be whatever trump was doing they wanted to do the opposite of you know it's like pull the 180 and so it's almost like the biden administration policy

David Sacks: became to stop doing whatever it was that trump was doing including finishing the wall i don't i don't really understand why that was like such a problem yeah building a wall also seemed like

SPEAKER_304: ridiculous we could just it's just one piece it's just one piece of the solution but to stop it

SPEAKER_39: in mid-construction let me ask you a question it broke this week that you're hosting uh a fundraiser for ronda santos you got a little bit of blowback from that uh from the woke uh you know in the san

SPEAKER_36: francisco crowd but in terms of your influence with somebody like that do you think you can actually influence them to get ronda santos to listen to this episode and maybe talk about the point-based system and change the framing of that do you think you have enough influence to do that

SPEAKER_137: i don't know i mean i don't know exactly what his position on immigration is that's not that that's not like the set of issues that's um that i respect him for i mean the reason why i wanted to support de santos is that he was the first governor to end these insane lockdowns and um i mean this is back

SPEAKER_138: in it should have been obvious to everybody by may of 2020 that the lockdowns didn't work and he was the

David Sacks: first one to to roll them back and um in florida did very well especially considering that they have

SPEAKER_138: so many old people in florida so you know on the whole now would i have done everything exactly the

Chamath Palihapitiya: way he did it no you know nobody did it perfect but is he is he a trump supporter and and a trump

SPEAKER_135: acolyte or is he distancing himself from trump i think i honestly i think that like point of view is coming from the point of view of somebody who's not in the republican party it doesn't have to deal

SPEAKER_137: with the dynamics of winning support in the republican party no no that's what i'm saying yeah so you you

SPEAKER_129: have to basically toe the line with trump to get the nomination i don't i don't see it as towing the

SPEAKER_135: line i just think look i think he's his own person he's the governor of florida he's setting policy

SPEAKER_138: over there um he can be supported or not based on what he's doing in florida i think like trump

SPEAKER_137: is the issue that everybody on the other side will want to talk about but i don't think it's relevant

SPEAKER_298: to what he's doing isn't there is relevant to what he's inside of the republican party over this and should we support trump but i wouldn't say i wouldn't all this stuff i wouldn't say it's a civil

SPEAKER_138: war but there definitely is some some conflict and yeah i mean how does it resolve i hope it resolves in oh look i think elections are always about the future i don't think people want to

SPEAKER_137: relitigate the past and i think that and i think that the republican party would be wise i think to find a candidate of the future and not try to rehash or relitigate the past um another good reason for

SPEAKER_138: me to support de santis i think he is a future looking future oriented candidate um i do think that look i'll say it the stuff i hear trump doing now in these speeches where he's relitigating what happened last year um and and attacking other republicans like mcconnell because he doesn't because they failed his personal loyalty test um it's a little bit like what he did frankly in georgia with the runoffs where yeah he showed so much chaos that the republicans lost a seat the produce seat that they had won on election night and then they had that runoff and you have to say that a huge part of the reason for that was the was trump uh attacking raffles burger and and all the the georgia gop because he thought they were insufficiently loyal to him and then you know you had the whole the tape come out of can you just find 11 000 votes i mean i think voters in georgia punished the republican party for that by by giving that seat to the democrats that is the that that margin created the democratic majority which will now give us probably an incremental four to six trillion of spending and tax increases that we wouldn't otherwise have had so i i do think these elections are very important and it would behoove the republicans look i'm not i'm not like one of these never trumper people who i'm just not obsessed with trump period i just think the republicans need to run a future looking candidate not a backwards looking candidate in 2024 and i think desantis could be that guy it's very very early to say i mean the first thing he has to do is run for governor uh for re-election

SPEAKER_137: in uh which i think is next year is 2022 so i will support him for that all right you guys anybody read

SPEAKER_297: the the ted sarandos memo yeah this is great they should definitely jump into this we talked about uh the chapelle performance uh sax and uh freeberg you haven't seen it did you watch it did you watch it

SPEAKER_244: oh god what nerd you haven't watched it oh my god you guys are culturally bankrupt what were you guys

SPEAKER_329: doing this week like beakers and like you know you were just like were you like in like some

SPEAKER_15: laboratory doing like sass they were doing their i i haven't watched it yet but i don't need to watch

SPEAKER_330: it to know i support it freedom he's just yeah he doesn't have to click on the link all right so

SPEAKER_331: there's almost nothing chapelle could say to make me want to cancel him i mean and by the way i've

David Sacks: seen a lot of ship chapelle and i love chapelle so i think i understand the gist of what he was doing but i do need to see it still all right look he should not be canceled it's ridiculous i don't think

SPEAKER_111: he is he's gonna survive of course beyond this um let me uh read you from it so everybody knows that

SPEAKER_39: the name of the uh special he did was the closer it was released on october 5th a lot of outcry from glad and uh advocacy groups and actually people inside of uh netflix there's been some resignations there have been some people who contribute content to netflix who are now saying they'll not work with the company and um it's really interesting ted sorrento sent a memo to the entire company on monday and he's this is the second one he sent and he says we know that a number of you have been left

SPEAKER_103: angry disappointed and hurt by our decision to put dave chapelle's latest special on netflix very interesting opening uh he's he's addressing their feelings just this is a master class in a memo because in that first part he just addresses i understand you feel that way with the closer we understand that the concern is not about offensive to some content but titles which could increase real world harm so now he's framing their argument as it's not because it's offensive it's because of real world harm you've brought this up before sax the real world harm concept with um apple and uh antonio while some employees disagree we have a strong belief that content on screen does not directly translate into real world harm it's not exactly true uh we'll get into that the strongest evidence to support this is that violence on screens has grown hugely over the last 30 years especially with first party shooter games and yet violent crime has fallen significantly in many countries uh and so he goes above and beyond just talking about offensive material uh adults can watch violence assault and abuse or enjoy shocking stand-up comedy without it causing them to harm other

SPEAKER_36: stand-up comedians often expose issues that are uncomfortable because the art by nature is highly

SPEAKER_39: provocative as a leadership team we do not believe that the closer is intended to incite hatred or violence

SPEAKER_103: against anyone poor sensitive content guidelines so basically he says you know if you don't like it change the channel if you're a customer you can cancel your subscription or if you work here and you

SPEAKER_36: don't like it you don't need to work here but is this the end of cancel culture this combined with brian armstrong's positioning sax this is your i don't i don't think it's the end of it uh for the

SPEAKER_137: simple reason um let's assume that this comic had not signed a 60 million dollar deal with with netflix let's say he had signed a 60 000 deal okay or six million or six million or whatever and uh

David Sacks: and and he didn't have the legions of fans that that dave chapelle had do you think that sarandos

SPEAKER_138: would make making the same decision i mean i think that's special by you know by a a a netflix comedy by dave smith would be swept under the rug right now we that would never see the light of day uh i think the same thing was true with joe rogan and spotify right i mean uh spotify made a 60 million dollar deal with rogan uh the 100 million the employees all protested and spotify stood tall for rogan but they had every economic incentive to do so i don't completely trust these companies

David Sacks: that if it wasn't massively in their bottom line interest that they would have stood up for free

SPEAKER_340: speech i suspect that if it was you know they would not have they would not have i think he said in the email sticks and stones is one of the most watched you know pieces of content we have and this the

SPEAKER_62: closer was like top four or five in america uh over like the last few weeks so there's a huge economic incentive and and reed hastings said the same thing when he posted the other co-ceo into a group forum which said listen our job is to please our customers and all this data says is that we've pleased our

SPEAKER_103: customer right and i think in the case of that is right right and and and i think to me that's him putting his foot down and saying we're going to make the content we want to make i don't i don't

SPEAKER_143: i don't think it's a principle i don't think it's a super look i i don't want to i don't want to look

SPEAKER_138: past it because i think that it's so rare to get a memo like uh sarandos wrote uh where he's defending artistic freedom or freedom of speech or what have you i mean it's so rare to ever see that that i don't want to um gainsay it too much but i also do believe that this sort of special treatment is really reserved for the for the artists the creators like a chapelle like a rogan they're basically too big to cancel i mean these companies have spent too much money on their programs to

David Sacks: just summarily cancel them uh they also again like i said have legions of fans who would rise up and

SPEAKER_138: protest if they were canceled but i don't think but i don't think these companies would make the same decision for the the middle the mid-level creator and in a sense rogan and chapelle they're post-economic right i mean they've made so much money that they're free to do what they want and they've got a big enough audience to protect themselves from these companies but it's the little creator who's still on their way up who can never take the kinds of creative risks that

SPEAKER_297: chapelle is taking or that rogan well they can take it they just can't do it on netflix but i i

SPEAKER_39: i the tone of this to me sound sounded like a manifesto and a the end of the discussion from dad like

SPEAKER_103: we're doing this if you don't like it get off the ship but this is the way the ship is going that's the way i read it and i think spotify did a similar thing with um joe rogan to your point which was hey listen there are some content out there from like alex jones or some people who are just conspiracy theorists they took down those episodes and joe rogan was like i don't care i got paid um but yeah it does feel to me like this is a tipping point when you put brian armstrong joe rogan and chapelle together that corporations are going to say you know what the mob is fine you can

SPEAKER_36: have your opinion but your opinion stops where we have to run a business freeberg what are your thoughts

SPEAKER_354: i think i think netflix has a appreciation for artistry certainly evident by the money they've

SPEAKER_57: spent and the product they put out and i think good artists and good artistry is um uh you know can be provocative it's designed to make you change your opinion look at things differently think about things differently and be challenged in the norms of you know your everyday life and i think that's um that's important in art in all forms um and that means seeing and being exposed to and um being engaged by things that you don't normally get exposed to and engaged by and i think that's what chapelle is fantastic at and i think that's what other great art is great at and um and i think that as long as netflix maintains that ethos that artistry does that and the good thing is people appreciate it and they uh they appreciate that that form and they appreciate being challenged in that way and i think that as a result the market will as reid hastings identified continue to demand it and as much as some people might be offended it's the fact that it is offensive that i think makes it good um so let

SPEAKER_200: me ask you and i think that they appreciate it let me let me take how i hope you're right about what this means i mean to me let me be really clear i mean i hope it goes down exactly the way that you're

SPEAKER_138: saying because that that is what i want to believe is happening i'm a little bit skeptical that this is a little bit more of a bottom line motive because they got so much money at stake that they can't afford to cancel chapelle but i hope you're right that i hope you're right that it's a statement of principle and they will apply that principle to lesser known artists who can't protect themselves as much um and you know hopefully this is kind of like you know what it reminds me of is the john stewart uh lab the the the wuhan yeah lab leak moment where you had john stewart go on um colbert's show and he all of a sudden he made it okay to talk about the lab leak theory it was like

SPEAKER_360: you couldn't talk about it before he cracked the overton window yes exactly and so hopefully

SPEAKER_138: chapelle will do that for this like woke cancellation mob is to finally get everybody to realize oh like we

SPEAKER_103: can stand up to this chamath is the overton window uh on a go forward basis do you see it closing more staying where it is or perhaps even opening there's um there's a really great philosopher

SPEAKER_67: this is uh this is my maybe my one and only grand tribute to peter thiel but he he is um he's a huge

SPEAKER_363: supporter of a philosopher named renee girard and uh i agree with a lot of uh a lot of that uh a lot of

SPEAKER_62: renee girard's philosophies and basically it's called mimetic theory and the idea is you're born without preferences and then you kind of just copy what's around you and so what the other person wants is what you want and that's what ultimately leads to a lot of conflict and the only way to resolve conflict is is with a huge grand sacrifice of some kind okay um and if you think about it here if you're going to really put you know cancel culture if you're going to kill it there needs to be some just massive escalation and conflict around this idea that allows us to resolve it in one way or the other

SPEAKER_129: in one direction or the other and i don't think this is it i think it's not big enough quite honestly i think it's a little bit sort of like you know there's folks like us that love comedy um and we're willing to keep it in a very strict box which is let people say what they're going to say be shocked with it and don't take it on to yourself and don't you know and go and reflect it into the world it's entertainment and you can you know it's like i choose not to watch um violent stuff because i don't like it i find it i find it very offensive or um you know i don't play first-person shooters i find it really unsettling you know grand theft auto i found it really outrageous and other people will feel like that about chapelle my whole thing is we should all be allowed to make those judgments because i think we're all still pretty rational people at the end of the day and do the right thing

SPEAKER_62: in the normal world but this isn't the thing that's going to get this uh issue to be resolved so i don't know how it comes there needs to be some huge escalation around this thing i suspect what happens is it actually just uh dissipates and goes away and the reason is because everybody who's much younger than us has such a huge digital footprint that they've created through their whole lives there is so much that's out there god yes that they just have no choice but to let everybody else off the hook we we are in a very different situation because we were doing some shady stuff always on the down low always hidden whoa easy there but that that's how it was we were in our our childhood you're largely anonymous you would you would roll deep and you would just you would pretend you would not you know and now the culture is very different and i think with that comes a lot of acceptance every you know every kid at some point may or may not be on tinder bumble ria you know grinder whatever so there's going to be a body of that content that's up every kid will have said something crazy you know on tick tock and all of this stuff will be there and so you'll have a choice which is if you're going to hold me accountable i'm going to hold you accountable and so it's mutually assured destruction and i think that's what causes cancel culture to go away in time it's the last vestige of very guilty people of our generation

SPEAKER_96: fascinating what do you think freeberg is the overton window opening closing or about the next year

SPEAKER_354: what tamad is saying is right i um i think i've referred to this book called the light of other

SPEAKER_57: days before when we talked i think so right yeah um the book is like all about this notion of all information that's available to everyone everywhere and societal norms completely change people no longer find things offensive and they no longer and everyone basically shifts to a mode of much more kind of open dialogue because you know keeping things behind closed doors and then positioning one person against the other completely changes when you can see everyone's cards all the time um and so i think yeah generally we're headed that way i don't think we're gonna information wants to be free more information is being generated about each of us all the time i don't think that we're headed in the opposite direction kind of back to a victorian era i think we're going in the other way so there's

SPEAKER_191: going to be blips and starts um uh that that'll kind of you know be setbacks on that general trajectory um so yeah i do think it's it's it's a moment you know it's a moment in time right now

SPEAKER_39: um where this is happening i mean sax if you look at the two examples we've discussed brian armstrong and uh coinbase that was about essentially black lives matters and talking about social justice at work and this one is about trans uh and trans rights and essentially i don't want to say poking fun at or you know uh discussing uh i mean he basically says in it that he's team turf

SPEAKER_103: if you were to take two organizations that standing up against would be the most challenging and difficult i think those are the top two no i guess so i mean that's why i think this is the

SPEAKER_39: this is the most telling is that you have two different organizations saying hey we're going to put our foot down just for background netflix had a very strange um i didn't see the actual film so i won't make judgment on it uh but it was a very strange uh trailer for a film called cuties which was really over sexualizing young girls like eight nine ten year old girls and they didn't take it down um in the united states uh netflix but uh they did it was in france it was in france it was a french movie yeah and they have a different view of kids and sexuality and yeah i think people found it a little dark uh here in the united states but they survived that one as well uh or they weathered that one as well so i think what people are finding is if you put your foot

SPEAKER_56: down at a certain point i think what sax says is right then they've these guys have realized that if we have this very specific message around artistic freedom and we never violate it because that's

SPEAKER_62: one of those things where if you take that hill you have to be there forever right you can't have asterisks around that idea but by doing that they basically dominate the content production game in hollywood which then allows them to field the most content at the cheapest average price which then makes churn less and customer acquisition higher and they're already the largest media company in the world and they're only going to get bigger you know they're and netflix says what 200 million subscribers they're going to get to a billion subscribers it's just inevitable and so for them i do think it's a very rational business position to take which is that i have to appeal to a billion

SPEAKER_103: people over the next you know seven or eight years you don't have to watch everything on netflix you do

SPEAKER_340: not have to listen to every album and like it netflix is a mess i mean they should spend 10 minutes and improve the ui so you can actually find something my god it's so bad

SPEAKER_297: and you know he he basically sarandos made the point that you know along with chappelle show

SPEAKER_39: they're funding a ton of content by people of color probably more than anybody and trans people it's a big focus of what they're doing at netflix and it's you know it's essentially to sax's point

SPEAKER_103: more speech is better than less all right do we want to go tether fda chaos why don't you take uh

SPEAKER_389: why don't you do your reverse victory lap because after all you're not a victory lap for me but no

David Friedberg: no bro it was the exact opposite it is not a it's a fraud come on can you please stop saying that

SPEAKER_329: apparently the cftc went in did the work and is actually now refuting what you thought was the

SPEAKER_395: case jason okay why don't you just how about i read you the quote from at least june 1st 2016 to

SPEAKER_36: february 25th 2019 tether misrepresented to customers and the market that tether maintained

SPEAKER_103: sufficient u.s dollar reserves to back every usdt in circulation with the equivalent equivalent amount of corresponding fiat currency held by tether and safely deposited in tether bank accounts in other words they told everybody they were one for one they were not they lied to the public and that's why they're getting a 41 million that's why they're banned from new york and that's why they're banned from trading in canada i think and they're supposedly a department of justice um

SPEAKER_168: these guys are shady as f af shady do you have a do you have an economic interest in tether no in

SPEAKER_135: crypto he does no no no i i can anyone have an economic interest in tether all it is a one for

SPEAKER_406: one tokenized dollar well no it's not that's what they claim it is no i know you're you're right that

David Sacks: it should be and we need an audit to establish that it is and they won't audit they'll do an

SPEAKER_36: attestation and when they did their attestation all they have to do is show a document that says there's money in an account they don't have to show how long that's been in the account certainly

SPEAKER_57: this certainly feels like a security to me and i would think the sec should get involved in

SPEAKER_111: stable coins are the number one thing on gensler and the sec's mind right yeah i mean they they

SPEAKER_128: make a claim of a secured interest in something unlike this is like the easiest part of crypto

SPEAKER_260: this is the easiest part of why is it why because because look at a bank account you audit it you're

SPEAKER_150: done it's it's a tokenized dollar that's it it is not actually i'm not even sure it's a security it basically is a digital representation of a dollar that's to be sitting in a bank account somewhere

SPEAKER_168: it's a money market yeah it's a money market fund but money markets are securities and they're

SPEAKER_150: regulated as security okay fine but my point is you know there are complicated securities and then there's securities that aren't complicated this is definitely the least complicated that this company

SPEAKER_103: only has to their own attestations like six percent three to six percent in cash in a bank account and the rest is in highly volatile corporate uh paper here's the point that i

SPEAKER_129: was trying to make to you in the group chat oh when a company who's got billions and billions

SPEAKER_62: and billions of dollars of some stable coin whatever or something that you think is zero okay it's a multi multi-billion dollar market um tens of billions oh sorry tens of billions they have 70

SPEAKER_129: billion in tether out there and and and could you imagine if they like let's just say there were

SPEAKER_62: 70 billion of tether and like you know 1 billion of securities that would be a fraud of gargantuan

SPEAKER_83: proportions right if they siphoned the money out for their own use that would be beyond talking about

SPEAKER_62: fines but what i found comical jason is your claims make it seem like bernie madoff enron level corruption craziness hold on okay and the fine was 42 million which is like who cares 42 million and it was between them and another firm so either the cfdc completely got the fine wrong and they missed a zero or two zeros or this was not nearly as big as you thought it was i'm i'm shocked shocked that jacob got overly

SPEAKER_429: excited about some perceived hopes uh here we go another conspiracy theorist yeah jason didn't fully understand something and got very emotional about it look all right that's it i'm off that's it i got

SPEAKER_135: yeah here's the best case scenario for making sense of jacal's points which is it's possible that tether

David Sacks: the company behind tether has all the money they've just not chosen to keep it in dollar reserves and so they've put it in corporate bonds and a whole mishmash of different things to get the float to get

SPEAKER_441: the float to make more money so they're solving i don't my guess is that tether is solvent i don't

David Sacks: think it's it lacks solvency but uh but i personally would feel better about any stable coin if it was

SPEAKER_443: a hundred percent dollar backed i think it should be which is what jerry miller is doing at um usdc and

SPEAKER_444: circle i had him on the pod this week i hope they bought the git lab uh ipo uh well i mean

SPEAKER_39: the issue here is they also co-mingled funds which is what got full told in trouble the users accounts with their money in it was mixed with the operating capital so they were using the deposits to operate the business which is the biggest no-no uh they were co-mingling the funds that people thought were backed uh and uh bitfinex and tether were the same company that's why they both got the fines at the same time they've also been banned from doing any having any customers in new york and they've been banned in canada and there's apparently a doj wire for it so i think this is the beginning of the

SPEAKER_448: end not the end of the beginning okay that's my personal belief i i was just wanting to get your reaction to what seemed like a really pathetic fine for what could be a 70 billion dollar fraud

SPEAKER_103: facebook got a series of speeding tickets too i mean i think that that's i mean that's a big issue for our

SPEAKER_450: bro government is that the scale of these companies what's that they paid like five

SPEAKER_452: billion dollars or something right oh yeah and they're a trillion dollar company i mean it's nothing

SPEAKER_180: i understand five billion is a big number that's a big number not in relation to their market cap and

SPEAKER_453: how much cash they throw off every year 42 million i mean that's a tax payment it's a quarterly tax

SPEAKER_455: for for you trim up not for us uh or maybe for sax he's doing pretty well too yum yum all right uh

SPEAKER_193: do we want we promise we do some questions should we do a couple questions sure i mean we could also

SPEAKER_459: talk about the fda and oh my god the fda my gosh freeberg you want to leave this freeberg you want

SPEAKER_354: to tell us about the chaos at the fda well i don't think it's chaotic like you guys think it is um i'll make that counter why don't you why don't you make your chaos point first and then i'll make that's not

SPEAKER_463: my point it's just kind of the uh what people yeah people are perceiving this so like you know

SPEAKER_57: there have been a couple of these um changes in recommendations now all of these recommendations that um and you know these statements and approvals that have come out of the fda are predicated on these independent advisory panels that are put together to look at um research data um assess the research data and make a recommendation on what they think is appropriate so we saw this happen with the pfizer booster shot a few weeks ago where initially the uh the advisory panel which again is made up of independent doctors and scientists who generally don't have any sort of economic interest in the outcome here they voted 16 to 2 against everyone getting a booster shot and then they voted 18 to 0 in favor of everyone 65 and over and those at risk of getting a booster shot and then recently there was you know similar sort of consternation around the moderna and they ended up looking at data that indicated that maybe a half dose which is 50 micrograms instead of 100 micrograms would have a reasonable amount of efficacy relative to the side effect risk for people over 65 and therefore they made a recommendation to approve that as a booster which the fda is now approving and so again the way this process is run and i think it's a good process is independent advisors of doctors and scientists come together and the one that recently um came together was around this generalized use of aspirin as a heart attack deterrent um because it thins the blood and and limits the risk of of people getting heart attacks but it turns out that such a a large percentage of the population or large enough percentage of the population were having bleeding issues where your stomach bleeds i don't know if you guys have this but you know you take ibuprofen or nsa ids your stomach can bleed that that was causing more of a problem for people than

SPEAKER_191: they were seeing in the data in terms of a reduction in heart attack effects for people that were not highly at risk and so they revised the recommendation and said hey let's give people

SPEAKER_57: that are only at risk and over a certain age aspirin not just like it give it to everyone over 40 or 50 and so it it took in account new data and i think this is an important point science is messy right

SPEAKER_191: by definition science is about gathering data forming a hypothesis testing again iterating restating your hypothesis and it's it's a it's designed to be circular it's designed to be a learning system not designed to be a system that defines absolute truth and absolute fact

SPEAKER_57: and it's good to see the fda doing this work and it's good to see scientists reviewing new data and changing their recommendations and you know we've seen this in in health we've seen this in in the food system and the usda changing their diet guidelines and people used to be told don't eat dietary cholesterol it turns out saturated fat is what causes cholesterol in your blood so there were a lot of changes that that kind of emerged as new data was gathered and

SPEAKER_466: remember when they told us to eat a lot of carbs remember the all carb diets yeah and then they learned and they made a change in those days yeah wait can we bring that back i'm starving i used

SPEAKER_448: to eat pasta every day first it was rice in my 10s and 20s oh i've seen you eat rice oh the shoveling of

SPEAKER_472: rice so my lord sir freeberg i mean if we're going to be just intellectually eating pizza if we're

SPEAKER_135: going to be intellectually honest about this the fact that you know official health officials can be

SPEAKER_137: wrong about positions they've maintained with i guess seemingly total certainty for decades and now they can revise those positions i mean doesn't that lend some credence to some of these like

David Sacks: anti-vax arguments when they say well gee i'm i'm skeptical about injecting our mrna into myself

SPEAKER_477: i think it's a totally you just got the episode banned on youtube we just got a warning i'm glad

David Sacks: i'm glad i got the vaccine i got the pfizer vaccine um and i think look it could have saved my life i

SPEAKER_138: mean i had a very mild case of delta yeah i had one of the first breakthroughs because so but but it was very mild and i think that was because i got pfizer i think the risk return was completely worth it and but but i can also see why people with like five-year-old like kindergarten age you know don't want to get it might not want to get it for their kids when the upside is absolutely you know tiny

David Sacks: given that it doesn't really affect five-year-olds very much and the downside is not my there's no

SPEAKER_481: how is it any different than the aspirin thing it might know i don't know that wishes you had gotten

SPEAKER_167: really sick with delta yes you are no but there's a bunch of people on the left i i don't i don't um

SPEAKER_354: i don't disagree with the framing that that um here's what typically happens the scientists or the

SPEAKER_191: fda panel will say based on the data that we have this is our recommendation on what should happen and then the framing that that people then assume is oh this is what they believe to be absolute truth and with absolute certainty this is what we have to do and i think the translation layer to the

SPEAKER_57: general population is such that this is the 10 commandments i came down from mount sinai and this is what i'm saying it has to happen when the reality is it is based on data and that data changes over time and i think that your point is right there is no absolute certainty that the pfizer vaccine is going to be absolutely perfect for everyone and it's going to absolutely reduce the risk more than it um increases the risk for people five years old and younger um and it's a it's a very fair point that like but the problem as we've seen on all sides is that the framing is that these things are binary and they're not right there's a probability distribution of which is defined as the risk and the the things that might go wrong and the probability distribution of the benefits and then people assume

SPEAKER_135: that it's binary i think i think you're making an excellent point there i just want to underscore let me kind of translate what you're saying is that the the people at the fda are in these positions

SPEAKER_137: who actually understand the science make a cost benefit analysis and what they're saying

SPEAKER_138: and approving it is that the costs outweigh the risks sorry the benefits outweigh the risk to the broad population there's a broad population okay by the way that's why i got the vaccine i don't

David Sacks: know for sure that there's no downsides in 10 years all i know is there's an upside immediately

SPEAKER_138: and i benefited from that so i was very happy to take it but in any event instead of this complicated cost benefit analysis the media translates that into good bad it's almost like a moral case and then the politicians translate that into laws and rules and if you question the rules you're now a bad person because you you've opposed the quote-unquote good side of the argument i mean for example gavin newsom just signed a bill in california saying that if you are a public school child elementary school kindergarten you have to get vaccinated in order to go to a public school even though the vaccine doesn't even exist for them yet i mean you could be pro-vax which i guess i would consider myself to be clearly pro-vax i mean i got it my 13 year old got it i support it i

SPEAKER_207: think it's a smart decision to make but to require a five-year-old to get it in order to go to public

SPEAKER_297: schools in california you can also wait until we get the fda data here's a question for you friedberg

SPEAKER_39: um you know having this um one of the complaints has been the fda restricts progress i mean i think actually peter thiel had this position for a while that we should uh you know just get rid of it and

SPEAKER_103: disband it what do we think about having the fda being framed as these are recommendations and then each state gets to make a decision with their local fda so then if colorado or texas or florida had a difference of opinion about psychedelics about vaccines they could run their own studies and it's

SPEAKER_464: a really important matter of ethics yes what are your ethics that you believe um you know should be

SPEAKER_191: the guiding principles for how the government plays a role in individuals making choice about their health and their body and so if you believe that the government and this is there's no right or wrong here it's simply a framing of what you believe if you believe that it's appropriate for the government to make the decision about what's safe and not safe for you as an individual to do then the fda

SPEAKER_57: should stay in place and they should have their criteria of when they're ready to make a recommendation there's enough data to define the benefit and the cost of a particular thing that you might put in your body and then telling you yes you should or shouldn't do this if you and if not they're going to take their time and and figure that out now if you don't believe that then yes the fda should be

SPEAKER_191: disbanded and drug companies will go around and they will tell people take this drug it will save your life and people will take it and there will be there will be people that will suffer from that there will be people that will have or maybe something in between there will be people that will die from that federal and and remember like the criteria for the fda is do no harm so you know that that is the criteria for a doctor in general it is a very difficult criteria to meet when there are costs to a drug or costs to a therapy or treatment when people get chemotherapy for cancer

SPEAKER_57: there are awful deleterious side effects to their body but the benefit of saving their life and getting rid of the cancer having at least a shot at doing that is great enough and the fda has made a judgment call that that cost and that benefit kind of create an equation that says this is an approved drug now and that's really their goal and if they don't have enough data and they haven't taken enough time to figure that out they don't feel comfortable approving a drug and making that recommendation but then if you let them get out of the way and you let individuals make choice

SPEAKER_191: you could see this being a disgusting free-for-all where drug companies will hawk snake oil on people and a lot of harm will be caused and that's that's the counter argument and i'm not saying one is

SPEAKER_57: right or one is well i was thinking there might be something really comes down with states what is the role that you want i mean it's really that what is the role that you want any government whether it's states or the federal government to play in deciding what you can and can't do with

SPEAKER_191: your body and what you can and can't put in your body and ultimately what companies that are making products for you can and can't say to you about the benefit and the cost of that product

SPEAKER_83: and there's no simple solution right i mean like if you want to say like look at kairi irving

SPEAKER_222: i mean he's basically he's walking away from a 200 million dollar extension and he believes in

SPEAKER_83: vaccines not every individual is equipped to look at the data and make a judgment call on their own

SPEAKER_191: and so the question then is what authority will they look to and if the alternative authority that they will look to is not as good as a as a research team of 18 scientists then they're probably going

SPEAKER_504: to end up getting bad advice you think what do you think the ultra kairi retires i think it's 60

SPEAKER_506: right now i think he's giving up 200 million dollars because he has a 200 million dollar

SPEAKER_36: extension he gets paid like 30 or 40 million dollars a year he refuses to get the vaccine he said the reason he's not getting the vaccine is because of all the people who don't have a choice the pilots who are being forced to get it or not go to work so he is a privilege he says and he wants to make

SPEAKER_505: this decision for everybody else um he also believes that the earth is flat stop that was a joke he said i don't think it was a joke where are you getting that from jacob uh typing kairi irving flat earth he talked about how do we know the earth is actually around and he basically

SPEAKER_508: media distortion yeah two days later he came out and he was like you guys misinterpret anyways that's

SPEAKER_515: that's not the corner there he's oh he's what he's unique and wacky so i would i would make that decision why are you so pejorative like i know i know because it's infuriating that just because

SPEAKER_517: someone disagrees with you you say no because kd wanted to come to the knicks these are taylor

SPEAKER_127: loren's tactics and kairi convinced him to go to brooklyn that's the reason jacal you're still a

SPEAKER_218: member of the media you have like a vestigial tale here is that you just bought in to the framework

SPEAKER_150: that freeberg laid out which is the media takes complicated issues cost-benefit analyses and turns

SPEAKER_524: them into right or wrong he didn't come to the knicks he didn't come so now he's bad now he's bad

David Sacks: he's bad for not coming to the knicks he sounds to me like a man of conscience no man of conscience

SPEAKER_481: who's willing to stand up on principle turn down 200 million dollars i got the vaccine for free i sure as hell wouldn't turn away 200 million dollars not to get it so i mean it's not a decision 200

SPEAKER_527: million to not take it would you have taken would you have not taken it yeah i think so i think i'm

SPEAKER_528: not taking it for 200 million there uh there was a i heard a great story yesterday at the poker

SPEAKER_01: table one of the guys was telling me uh it's his backgammon teacher and he says his backgammon teacher or is it you know good backgammon teacher and a magician blah blah blah 20 years ago he was asked um to get female breast implants for a year for a hundred thousand dollars he did it and he kept them for 20 years um that's quite a free roll so you know the bar for people to do the bar for people to do things is really not that high uh is really what i took away from that story and what i took away from this story is so let's go around the horn no but kairi is willing to draw the line on something that he believes in and it's going to cost him 200 million

SPEAKER_129: dollars there's a lot of things that come with all of that noise um he should be allowed to make

SPEAKER_01: that decision in my opinion um and i don't i don't like the way that he's characterized because i think this is a good human being he's a phenomenal basketball player could you imagine how strongly he feels about this if he's willing to walk away from the game that he loves and that's

SPEAKER_148: you know been an enormous part of his life why is it so important to foist on kyrie irving the need

SPEAKER_103: to get vaccinated i mean it's because in new york city in indoors you have to there's a vaccine requirement and he can't play at home games he could play in texas or houston so they've talked about trading him to houston but then when he went to new york and he also can't practice with the team

SPEAKER_39: in new york new jersey i guess massachusetts there's a bunch of states where you can't go indoors without a vaccine they're in close proximity to each other you get the idea i just think we're turning a good

SPEAKER_137: thing into which is the vaccine i genuinely think it's a it's a great thing that it got done so quickly it's a miracle of science and i think it's helped a lot of people i mean all of us i mean it's the thing that's going to end the pandemic largely already has but we're turning into a bad thing

David Sacks: but why are we demanding that these holdouts like every last person must get vaccinated well what

SPEAKER_111: about it what about a flight attendant should a flight attendant before us if they're on a

SPEAKER_544: tiny years or should they be work somewhere at you get so much protection by being vaccinated yourself

David Sacks: that i don't think so you don't believe in mandates now well i think private companies have the right to to to nba is a private company i know i get it so but i'm just i'm just starting to really question here whether it's truly necessary to get every single one of these last holdouts i just there's something un-american about imposing on free people this decision they can't just make

SPEAKER_298: up their own you you in a previous episode said you were in favor of it if people were dying at a

SPEAKER_36: higher rate if it was more cute no no no well hold on you did say that you said if it was killing

SPEAKER_135: kids and a lot of people were dying if it was if it was some sort of like ebola like yeah of course it'd be a whole different cost benefit analysis right exactly um but look what i said and i think

SPEAKER_138: this is still my position is that government shouldn't require shouldn't stick a needle in your arm i think private businesses can do it um or you don't use that service so how much would it

SPEAKER_550: take for you to get b cups uh implanted for a year for one billion dollars would you do it

SPEAKER_39: only b's i'm not saying like a strong d or something just like a modest b no i mean is that a real

SPEAKER_389: storage from us yeah send you the link it's there's a huge article about it it's in wikipedia

SPEAKER_555: as well yeah that's an old story jason you've already got b cups i hope someone's paying you for

SPEAKER_456: that i've lost 16 pounds i'm good i'm good i'm i'm just like a perky a right now b cups be gone

SPEAKER_103: this show has gone off the rails um we promised the audience would take two questions the first one is for friedberg and the first question comes from daniel neilis he says alpha phone made great progress in predictive protein folding is there anything similar for chemical synthesis could a similar system finally predict a less energy intensive pathway to ammonia than the haber bosch

SPEAKER_191: process for example i i don't see this is this is a this is a great question when molecules interact a molecule is a bunch of atoms stuck together and there are electrons and protons that make up that molecule and therefore there's this kind of variable electric potential energy potential that surrounds that molecule and it's very difficult today to deterministically model how two molecules might interact with one another in physics and it turns out that that resolves using quantum physics and so today we can't really kind of put two molecules together and say here's what happens when you put these together and have a computer program very quickly and easily solve that quantum physics is involved and we don't have a good way to simulate quantum physics in binary computers so um one of the theories and and there's been some work on this in on the research basis creating the framework for it is that we can use quantum computers to simulate the quantum states of molecules wow and use that to figure out how molecules might interact with one another and as a result you could kind of see us creating simulations that resolve certain enzymes or proteins that might break apart molecules or stick molecules together um or other molecule combinations that might cause something to happen the Haber-Bosch process which is being referred to was discovered through trial and error in the early 20th century by a german physicist um an engineer and they realized that if they compressed atmospheric um air to 200 times atmospheric pressure and ran it over an iron catalyst with electricity it zapped it broke apart the nitrogen bonds in the uh in the atmosphere in the air that was compressed and trickled out ammonia which is uh nitrogen and hydrogen um and so this was like this amazing invention and it saved the world and fed the world there's a great book called the alchemy of air if anyone's interested in hearing about this um but it was through trial and error and we got so friggin lucky as a species that we figured this out using quantum computing in the next 30 years hopefully we'll be able to deterministically um model these these behaviors on a on a on a molecular and atomic level and as a result kind of build new systems to make things um and that'll be an incredible um kind of toolkit for humans uh that'll advance a lot of science and a lot of engineering uh forward i'm still really strongly of the belief and this goes back to your point earlier i'm sorry i'm going on a bit of

SPEAKER_83: a ramp no it's great in 100 to 120 years from now i do think we'll all have a replicator in our room that replicator will make all the things we want to make nearly instantaneously with very low energy and very low cost um and there's a organ a new brain organ some food the next car you want to make i mean we could see and by the way this is a crazy concept it's not just about oh you know quantum stuff or whatever was described in star trek as in but the general principle that you can locally make

SPEAKER_191: things and locally make things cheaply with very little energy and very little input changes the whole supply chain model we're seeing this increasingly with new technologies with 3d printing and biomanufacturing you start to put these all together and you take a non-linear track out in

SPEAKER_83: the next couple decades and you get to a point that all this nonsense we're talking about where we're mining stuff in one place and making it another and shipping it i think that's the long beach port

SPEAKER_396: you're going to be able to print a conscience and it's going to be incredible

SPEAKER_573: i'm so glad you're going to be able to print an emotion audience questions so glad

SPEAKER_278: yeah all right here's a question for sacks maddie or i guess me and also chamath uh and i guess all

SPEAKER_103: four of us maddie chavis asks between being a vc founder angel corporate employee which has been the

SPEAKER_39: most fun rewarding and why what advice would you give someone early in their career hoping to be be like you multi-channel investor thought leader when they grow up sacks well i didn't i didn't become

SPEAKER_200: a vc until after i had already done a few tours of duty as a founder and operator so i mean my

SPEAKER_137: recommendation would be to get involved in startups first generally get some operating experience and

SPEAKER_01: that would serve you well or even bigger companies i i just think getting getting some reps

SPEAKER_57: inside of an organization is critical i tell everyone that uh that's coming out of college or early in their career it's important you go get that perspective and work at a bigger business i mean i spent a few years at google and you know it was a thousand people when i joined grew to 10 000 by the time i left but like i learned so much just in that role and seeing successful products successful models for operating a business um it was really uh impactful for me long term and then you go and make all the mistakes as a founder building a startup you know and a lot of people end up with bad confirmation bias if they work at a startup that didn't work out and they think and all they can draw from is a failed model for operating um if things didn't which was your favorite which you know

SPEAKER_111: role has been your favorite to date freeberg you know when i was an executive at monsanto it's

SPEAKER_57: really nice to have that private jet that would come out and take me places they had a whole security

SPEAKER_581: requirement i already have that anyway yeah oh wow the one percent yeah i have this impression of

SPEAKER_324: that out that's a you said it it's in your heart what was your favorite sex my favorite stint uh yeah

SPEAKER_135: well i mean obviously what we did at paypal has gone on to become a legend and then you know paypal i was the founder ceo he led that to a unicorn exit so you got to say those would be the two best

SPEAKER_57: professional experiences i was being a fan i was i was joking about the private jet thing i honestly like to me and i sacks i'm sure you know and the rest of you guys can feel the same but like making a great product and selling that product and you know working with a customer with that product is is honestly like the most rewarding thing you can do it's like you know getting your hands dirty and actually delivering something of value in the world there's nothing more rewarding than that i mean all the financial engineering and making money and all the nonsense that goes on is really kind of a zoom out of that but that's really where reward comes in um yeah i feel that way too i was joking about the

SPEAKER_135: private jet too which one uh which jet but actually i think and nick nick caught me misspeaking so yeah it was the first experience was paypal the second experience was yammer you may have to do some

SPEAKER_606: audio which is your favorite private jet that you have yeah which by the way i just want to to

SPEAKER_127: defend myself on stealing uh toiletries on chamat's plane no don't don't defend yourself don't do it it was a mini bottle of scope i drank half of it what are you how many did you take put it back in the draw how many did you take on your plane or on sat on your plane i took a truth true story i did

SPEAKER_612: take the half bottle of pappy you took my pappy van winkle it was like a half left that's a five

SPEAKER_331: thousand dollar i'll tell you five hundred actually i'll tell you a funny story about i boosted a half bottle of papi so yeah okay so here i got to tell you this funny story so i was going i was going on you didn't

SPEAKER_135: take it i was going on i was going on a business trip with um a couple of uh you know friends co-workers who they're actually founders now of a company i backed anyway we were going to like an event in i think it was in atlanta so it's like a four-hour flight so they at you they opened the liquor drawer or whatever and saw the paper and um they asked like they could have i was like sure take whatever you want and then i went in the back and and went to sleep so but by the time we land like four hours later the entire pappy van winkle like stash has been they've gone through it and it's

SPEAKER_331: like it's all these different types of pappy you've got the pappy 23 you've got some of these you've got some of these antique antique ones so they asked me you know they've never flown on a private plane before they asked me you know how hey sax how much did this flight cost and i said it costs about

SPEAKER_311: six thousand dollars in jet fuel and about eight thousand dollars in pappy van winkle

SPEAKER_623: oh my god it costs more than uh i'm from around the way i'm leaving with something i'm leaving with something you know like if i'm gonna be on a pj i'm gonna leave with something i think we found a way

SPEAKER_351: to end this podcast in the most insufferable way possible um all right nick edit it all out

SPEAKER_103: edit no edit nothing you highlight it make it the opening all right for the queen of quinoa david friedberg for rain man david sax and the dictator and also sexy sexy we're playing we're playing next week at saxifu's place we're playing at the mausoleum no we're playing at the mausoleum nobody knows where the mausoleum is nobody knows where the mausoleum is but it was where i've been

SPEAKER_206: docked so many times we better get security all right we'll see you all next time bye bye